Overview

The objective of this analysis was to carry out the study on the “potentiality for the electrification of Urban Freight vehicles in the city of Surat”.

As common in all the Indian cities, with the increasing population the vehicular growth is also increasing. Total no of vehicles on road in Surat was calculated through the RTO’s data of the past few years. Since past 6 years, the growth of LCVs is increasing at 4% and Goods auto at 5%. Presently there are 61,574 registered LCVs and registered 46,772 Goods auto plying on the road (excluding the scrapped vehicles).

Daily 21,735 freight trips are made with in the city to the textile market. There is a constant demand for transport service of textile goods in the textile market. Presently there are a total of 2,271 LCVs and 1,982 Goods auto on road. If the same growth trend is followed, which is 4% and 5% by 2030 total LCVs and Goods auto in the textile market would increase to 3,448 and 3,123 respectively.

Due to factors like environmental benefits, economic growth and individual benefits such as reduced operation and maintenance cost and longer vehicle life, the idea for electrification of urban freight vehicles has been adopted as the freight sector is under constant demand in the active textile market of Surat.

ICE vehicular growth under as usual scenario

ICE vehicular growth under EV benefits awareness scenario

Need of transition towards Electric Frieght Vehicles

If the scenario remains as usual, the pollution emission due to freight vehicles in Surat will increase from 47515 tonnes in 2020 to 68487 tonnes in 2030.

If people are made aware about the long term benefits of electric freight vehicles among the fleet owners, there will be an increase in shift to 33% towards electric freight vehicles and pollution emission will reduce to 32310 in 2020 to 46571 in 2030 comapred to as usual scenario.

Increase in pollution emissions(tonnes) under as usual scenario

Increase in pollution emissions(tonnes) under awareness of EV benefits scenario

Need of transition towards Electric Frieght Vehicles

If the scenario remains as usual, the pollution treatment cost due to freight vehicles in Surat will increase from 9.46 Crores in 2020 to 13.61 Crores in 2030.

If people are made aware about the long term benefits of electric freight vehicles among the fleet owners, there will be an increase in shift to 33% towards electric freight vehicles and pollution emission will reduce.

This will in turn reduce the pollution treatment cost from 6.43 Crores in 2020 to 9.25 Crores in 2030 compared to the as usual scenario.

Increase in pollution treatment costs(Crores) under as usual scenario

Increase in pollution treatment costs(Crores) under awareness of EV benefits scenario

Attributes defining Percentage shift to Electric Freight Vehicles

Primary surveys of single to small fleet owners were carried out to understand the current freight vehicle model demand in the market and how many would be ready to shift to electric freight vehicles under different scenarios.

Based on the observations and the current scenario of the vehicle sector (goods auto and LCV) and targeted segment single to small fleet owner, it was found that purchase cost and O&M were the major factors affecting the choice of electric freight vehicle.

The result of discrete choice model and sensitivity analysis is given on the right.

Percentage Initial Purchase cost

65

Percentage O&M costs over life cycle of the vehicle

35

Percentage shift under scenario: 1. EV benefits awareness

32

Percentage shift under scenario: 2. 20% capital subsidy

58

Percentage shift under scenario: 3. 40% capital subsidy

75

Percentage shift under scenario: 4. 20% fuel hike

57

Percentage shift under scenario: 5. 20% fuel hike + 40% capital subsidy

86