All Star NBA Model (Trained with 2000-16 Data)
Paul Kellar
03/31/2020
R Environment Preparation
Read in .csv and bring in necessary libraries (CBB team data 2002-18)
setwd("~/Documents/Spring 2019/Data Mining/R Files")
load("CBBstats.RData")
library(forecast)
library(gains)
library(caret)
library(e1071)Dataset: Must have been tournament eligible
Delete non-numeric columns
seasonstats <- seasonstats[,c(4:42)]
summary(seasonstats)## IsPowerSix TSp eFGp ORBp
## Min. :0.0000 Min. :0.4560 Min. :0.4130 Min. :0.1650
## 1st Qu.:0.0000 1st Qu.:0.5420 1st Qu.:0.5020 1st Qu.:0.3010
## Median :1.0000 Median :0.5590 Median :0.5200 Median :0.3320
## Mean :0.5367 Mean :0.5597 Mean :0.5204 Mean :0.3303
## 3rd Qu.:1.0000 3rd Qu.:0.5750 3rd Qu.:0.5370 3rd Qu.:0.3620
## Max. :1.0000 Max. :0.8040 Max. :0.6210 Max. :0.4950
## DRBp ASTp TOVp STLp
## Min. :0.5640 Min. :0.3790 Min. :0.1040 Min. :0.0550
## 1st Qu.:0.6870 1st Qu.:0.5210 1st Qu.:0.1470 1st Qu.:0.0880
## Median :0.7070 Median :0.5550 Median :0.1600 Median :0.1000
## Mean :0.7077 Mean :0.5575 Mean :0.1605 Mean :0.1015
## 3rd Qu.:0.7280 3rd Qu.:0.5910 3rd Qu.:0.1720 3rd Qu.:0.1130
## Max. :0.7940 Max. :0.8440 Max. :0.2360 Max. :0.1920
## BLKp PPS FICFourty ORtg
## Min. :0.02200 Min. :1.100 Min. :0.935 Min. :0.912
## 1st Qu.:0.08475 1st Qu.:1.300 1st Qu.:1.282 1st Qu.:1.051
## Median :0.10200 Median :1.300 Median :1.390 Median :1.080
## Mean :0.10586 Mean :1.309 Mean :1.393 Mean :1.084
## 3rd Qu.:0.12500 3rd Qu.:1.300 3rd Qu.:1.491 3rd Qu.:1.113
## Max. :0.30000 Max. :2.100 Max. :1.968 Max. :1.526
## DRtg eDiff PossperMin Pace
## Min. :0.8120 Min. :-0.029 Min. :1.151 Min. :0.4600
## 1st Qu.:0.9280 1st Qu.: 0.079 1st Qu.:1.639 1st Qu.:0.6558
## Median :0.9580 Median : 0.122 Median :1.694 Median :0.6780
## Mean :0.9607 Mean : 0.123 Mean :1.692 Mean :0.6766
## 3rd Qu.:0.9880 3rd Qu.: 0.160 3rd Qu.:1.757 3rd Qu.:0.7030
## Max. :1.3810 Max. : 0.316 Max. :1.950 Max. :0.7800
## FGM FGA FGp ThreePM
## Min. :0.4000 Min. :0.800 Min. :0.4000 Min. :0.1000
## 1st Qu.:0.6000 1st Qu.:1.300 1st Qu.:0.4000 1st Qu.:0.1000
## Median :0.6000 Median :1.400 Median :0.5000 Median :0.2000
## Mean :0.6429 Mean :1.399 Mean :0.4677 Mean :0.1732
## 3rd Qu.:0.7000 3rd Qu.:1.500 3rd Qu.:0.5000 3rd Qu.:0.2000
## Max. :0.8000 Max. :1.700 Max. :0.5000 Max. :0.3000
## ThreePA ThreePp FTM FTA
## Min. :0.3000 Min. :0.2000 Min. :0.2000 Min. :0.3000
## 1st Qu.:0.4000 1st Qu.:0.3000 1st Qu.:0.3000 1st Qu.:0.5000
## Median :0.5000 Median :0.4000 Median :0.4000 Median :0.5000
## Mean :0.4747 Mean :0.3652 Mean :0.3741 Mean :0.5282
## 3rd Qu.:0.5000 3rd Qu.:0.4000 3rd Qu.:0.4000 3rd Qu.:0.6000
## Max. :0.7000 Max. :0.4000 Max. :0.5000 Max. :0.8000
## FTp TOV PF ORB
## Min. :0.6000 Min. :0.2000 Min. :0.3000 Min. :0.1000
## 1st Qu.:0.7000 1st Qu.:0.3000 1st Qu.:0.4000 1st Qu.:0.2000
## Median :0.7000 Median :0.3000 Median :0.4000 Median :0.3000
## Mean :0.7067 Mean :0.3112 Mean :0.4382 Mean :0.2668
## 3rd Qu.:0.7000 3rd Qu.:0.3000 3rd Qu.:0.5000 3rd Qu.:0.3000
## Max. :0.8000 Max. :0.5000 Max. :0.6000 Max. :0.6000
## DRB AST STL BLK
## Min. :0.4000 Min. :0.2000 Min. :0.1000 Min. :0.0000
## 1st Qu.:0.6000 1st Qu.:0.3000 1st Qu.:0.1000 1st Qu.:0.1000
## Median :0.6000 Median :0.4000 Median :0.2000 Median :0.1000
## Mean :0.6001 Mean :0.3586 Mean :0.1738 Mean :0.1014
## 3rd Qu.:0.6000 3rd Qu.:0.4000 3rd Qu.:0.2000 3rd Qu.:0.1000
## Max. :0.9000 Max. :0.5000 Max. :0.3000 Max. :0.2000
## PTS Winp MOV SOS
## Min. :1.500 Min. :0.5000 Min. :-4.180 Min. :-12.8600
## 1st Qu.:1.700 1st Qu.:0.6562 1st Qu.: 5.117 1st Qu.: -0.1475
## Median :1.800 Median :0.7246 Median : 7.840 Median : 6.0850
## Mean :1.832 Mean :0.7215 Mean : 7.933 Mean : 4.1507
## 3rd Qu.:1.900 3rd Qu.:0.7838 3rd Qu.:10.320 3rd Qu.: 8.3425
## Max. :2.200 Max. :0.9744 Max. :22.780 Max. : 12.7900
## OSRS DSRS IsEliteEight
## Min. :-13.380 Min. :-12.710 Min. :0.0000
## 1st Qu.: 2.545 1st Qu.: 2.047 1st Qu.:0.0000
## Median : 6.285 Median : 5.740 Median :0.0000
## Mean : 6.149 Mean : 5.393 Mean :0.1219
## 3rd Qu.: 10.232 3rd Qu.: 8.940 3rd Qu.:0.0000
## Max. : 23.850 Max. : 24.000 Max. :1.0000seasonstatsmodel <- seasonstatsstandardize numerical predictors to 0-1 scale for both the new record and full dataset
cols <- c("IsPowerSix", "TSp", "eFGp", "ORBp", "DRBp", "ASTp",
"TOVp", "STLp", "BLKp", "PPS", "FICFourty", "ORtg", "DRtg",
"eDiff", "PossperMin", "Pace", "FGM", "FGA", "FGp", "ThreePM",
"ThreePA", "ThreePp", "FTM", "FTA", "FTp", "TOV", "PF", "ORB",
"DRB", "AST", "STL", "BLK", "PTS", "Winp", "MOV", "SOS","OSRS","DSRS","IsEliteEight")
for (i in cols) {
seasonstatsmodel[[i]] <- (seasonstatsmodel[[i]] - min(seasonstatsmodel[[i]])) / (max(seasonstatsmodel[[i]]) - min(seasonstatsmodel[[i]]))
}
summary(seasonstatsmodel)## IsPowerSix TSp eFGp ORBp
## Min. :0.0000 Min. :0.0000 Min. :0.0000 Min. :0.0000
## 1st Qu.:0.0000 1st Qu.:0.2471 1st Qu.:0.4279 1st Qu.:0.4121
## Median :1.0000 Median :0.2960 Median :0.5144 Median :0.5061
## Mean :0.5367 Mean :0.2981 Mean :0.5164 Mean :0.5009
## 3rd Qu.:1.0000 3rd Qu.:0.3420 3rd Qu.:0.5962 3rd Qu.:0.5970
## Max. :1.0000 Max. :1.0000 Max. :1.0000 Max. :1.0000
## DRBp ASTp TOVp STLp
## Min. :0.0000 Min. :0.0000 Min. :0.0000 Min. :0.0000
## 1st Qu.:0.5348 1st Qu.:0.3054 1st Qu.:0.3258 1st Qu.:0.2409
## Median :0.6217 Median :0.3785 Median :0.4242 Median :0.3285
## Mean :0.6248 Mean :0.3839 Mean :0.4284 Mean :0.3398
## 3rd Qu.:0.7130 3rd Qu.:0.4559 3rd Qu.:0.5152 3rd Qu.:0.4234
## Max. :1.0000 Max. :1.0000 Max. :1.0000 Max. :1.0000
## BLKp PPS FICFourty ORtg
## Min. :0.0000 Min. :0.0000 Min. :0.0000 Min. :0.0000
## 1st Qu.:0.2257 1st Qu.:0.2000 1st Qu.:0.3366 1st Qu.:0.2264
## Median :0.2878 Median :0.2000 Median :0.4407 Median :0.2736
## Mean :0.3017 Mean :0.2094 Mean :0.4433 Mean :0.2797
## 3rd Qu.:0.3705 3rd Qu.:0.2000 3rd Qu.:0.5381 3rd Qu.:0.3274
## Max. :1.0000 Max. :1.0000 Max. :1.0000 Max. :1.0000
## DRtg eDiff PossperMin Pace
## Min. :0.0000 Min. :0.0000 Min. :0.0000 Min. :0.0000
## 1st Qu.:0.2039 1st Qu.:0.3130 1st Qu.:0.6108 1st Qu.:0.6117
## Median :0.2566 Median :0.4377 Median :0.6799 Median :0.6813
## Mean :0.2614 Mean :0.4406 Mean :0.6769 Mean :0.6768
## 3rd Qu.:0.3093 3rd Qu.:0.5478 3rd Qu.:0.7584 3rd Qu.:0.7594
## Max. :1.0000 Max. :1.0000 Max. :1.0000 Max. :1.0000
## FGM FGA FGp ThreePM
## Min. :0.0000 Min. :0.0000 Min. :0.0000 Min. :0.000
## 1st Qu.:0.5000 1st Qu.:0.5556 1st Qu.:0.0000 1st Qu.:0.000
## Median :0.5000 Median :0.6667 Median :1.0000 Median :0.500
## Mean :0.6073 Mean :0.6652 Mean :0.6774 Mean :0.366
## 3rd Qu.:0.7500 3rd Qu.:0.7778 3rd Qu.:1.0000 3rd Qu.:0.500
## Max. :1.0000 Max. :1.0000 Max. :1.0000 Max. :1.000
## ThreePA ThreePp FTM FTA
## Min. :0.0000 Min. :0.0000 Min. :0.0000 Min. :0.0000
## 1st Qu.:0.2500 1st Qu.:0.5000 1st Qu.:0.3333 1st Qu.:0.4000
## Median :0.5000 Median :1.0000 Median :0.6667 Median :0.4000
## Mean :0.4368 Mean :0.8262 Mean :0.5803 Mean :0.4565
## 3rd Qu.:0.5000 3rd Qu.:1.0000 3rd Qu.:0.6667 3rd Qu.:0.6000
## Max. :1.0000 Max. :1.0000 Max. :1.0000 Max. :1.0000
## FTp TOV PF ORB
## Min. :0.0000 Min. :0.0000 Min. :0.0000 Min. :0.0000
## 1st Qu.:0.5000 1st Qu.:0.3333 1st Qu.:0.3333 1st Qu.:0.2000
## Median :0.5000 Median :0.3333 Median :0.3333 Median :0.4000
## Mean :0.5336 Mean :0.3707 Mean :0.4606 Mean :0.3337
## 3rd Qu.:0.5000 3rd Qu.:0.3333 3rd Qu.:0.6667 3rd Qu.:0.4000
## Max. :1.0000 Max. :1.0000 Max. :1.0000 Max. :1.0000
## DRB AST STL BLK
## Min. :0.0000 Min. :0.0000 Min. :0.0000 Min. :0.0000
## 1st Qu.:0.4000 1st Qu.:0.3333 1st Qu.:0.0000 1st Qu.:0.5000
## Median :0.4000 Median :0.6667 Median :0.5000 Median :0.5000
## Mean :0.4002 Mean :0.5287 Mean :0.3692 Mean :0.5072
## 3rd Qu.:0.4000 3rd Qu.:0.6667 3rd Qu.:0.5000 3rd Qu.:0.5000
## Max. :1.0000 Max. :1.0000 Max. :1.0000 Max. :1.0000
## PTS Winp MOV SOS
## Min. :0.0000 Min. :0.0000 Min. :0.0000 Min. :0.0000
## 1st Qu.:0.2857 1st Qu.:0.3294 1st Qu.:0.3449 1st Qu.:0.4956
## Median :0.4286 Median :0.4734 Median :0.4458 Median :0.7386
## Mean :0.4738 Mean :0.4670 Mean :0.4493 Mean :0.6632
## 3rd Qu.:0.5714 3rd Qu.:0.5982 3rd Qu.:0.5378 3rd Qu.:0.8266
## Max. :1.0000 Max. :1.0000 Max. :1.0000 Max. :1.0000
## OSRS DSRS IsEliteEight
## Min. :0.0000 Min. :0.0000 Min. :0.0000
## 1st Qu.:0.4277 1st Qu.:0.4020 1st Qu.:0.0000
## Median :0.5282 Median :0.5026 Median :0.0000
## Mean :0.5245 Mean :0.4931 Mean :0.1219
## 3rd Qu.:0.6342 3rd Qu.:0.5898 3rd Qu.:0.0000
## Max. :1.0000 Max. :1.0000 Max. :1.0000```
Logistic Model - focus on high sensitivity (positivity accuracy) vs high specificity
set.seed(rnorm(1))
train.rows <- sample(nrow(seasonstatsmodel), nrow(seasonstatsmodel) * 0.6)
seasonstatsmodel.train <- seasonstatsmodel[train.rows, ]
seasonstatsmodel.valid <- seasonstatsmodel[-train.rows, ]
seasonstatsmodel.glm <- glm(IsEliteEight ~ ., family = "binomial", data = seasonstatsmodel.train)
summary(seasonstatsmodel.glm)##
## Call:
## glm(formula = IsEliteEight ~ ., family = "binomial", data = seasonstatsmodel.train)
##
## Deviance Residuals:
## Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
## -1.80870 -0.29385 -0.12230 -0.01468 3.15334
##
## Coefficients:
## Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)
## (Intercept) 15.02879 43.91691 0.342 0.7322
## IsPowerSix 0.17019 0.72416 0.235 0.8142
## TSp 5.75703 20.23418 0.285 0.7760
## eFGp 2.75791 8.67608 0.318 0.7506
## ORBp 3.59918 4.11099 0.876 0.3813
## DRBp -0.78913 1.82528 -0.432 0.6655
## ASTp -4.11813 3.11344 -1.323 0.1859
## TOVp -0.18623 5.41612 -0.034 0.9726
## STLp -0.23884 2.69505 -0.089 0.9294
## BLKp -2.72197 3.08408 -0.883 0.3775
## PPS 1.21058 5.77532 0.210 0.8340
## FICFourty 5.43463 7.15904 0.759 0.4478
## ORtg 61.29412 208.22266 0.294 0.7685
## DRtg -97.11651 192.92663 -0.503 0.6147
## eDiff -56.36802 116.64461 -0.483 0.6289
## PossperMin -30.14783 80.34693 -0.375 0.7075
## Pace 6.42223 81.03950 0.079 0.9368
## FGM 2.58022 2.21417 1.165 0.2439
## FGA 1.54042 5.00435 0.308 0.7582
## FGp 0.42026 0.54636 0.769 0.4418
## ThreePM -0.06769 1.11954 -0.060 0.9518
## ThreePA 2.22392 1.42305 1.563 0.1181
## ThreePp 0.52344 0.99569 0.526 0.5991
## FTM 0.21179 1.67954 0.126 0.8997
## FTA 0.03107 2.23953 0.014 0.9889
## FTp -0.44569 1.11109 -0.401 0.6883
## TOV -0.52650 1.90060 -0.277 0.7818
## PF 0.65872 1.29338 0.509 0.6105
## ORB 3.60287 2.85135 1.264 0.2064
## DRB -1.82647 2.77412 -0.658 0.5103
## AST 0.36288 1.68996 0.215 0.8300
## STL -0.41853 1.14258 -0.366 0.7141
## BLK -0.19150 1.36230 -0.141 0.8882
## PTS 10.70134 4.25449 2.515 0.0119 *
## Winp 8.78273 1.78369 4.924 8.48e-07 ***
## MOV -10.74449 15.16861 -0.708 0.4787
## SOS 1.83820 11.12307 0.165 0.8687
## OSRS 16.34379 16.01635 1.020 0.3075
## DSRS 12.59463 15.28674 0.824 0.4100
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
##
## Null deviance: 509.44 on 668 degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 264.61 on 630 degrees of freedom
## AIC: 342.61
##
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 8pred.glm.train <- predict(seasonstatsmodel.glm, type = "response")
pred.glm.valid <- predict(seasonstatsmodel.glm, newdata = seasonstatsmodel.valid, type = "response")
confusionMatrix(as.factor(ifelse(pred.glm.train >= 0.5, "1", "0")), as.factor(seasonstatsmodel.train$IsEliteEight),
positive = "1")## Confusion Matrix and Statistics
##
## Reference
## Prediction 0 1
## 0 565 36
## 1 19 49
##
## Accuracy : 0.9178
## 95% CI : (0.8943, 0.9375)
## No Information Rate : 0.8729
## P-Value [Acc > NIR] : 0.0001528
##
## Kappa : 0.5948
##
## Mcnemar's Test P-Value : 0.0309714
##
## Sensitivity : 0.57647
## Specificity : 0.96747
## Pos Pred Value : 0.72059
## Neg Pred Value : 0.94010
## Prevalence : 0.12706
## Detection Rate : 0.07324
## Detection Prevalence : 0.10164
## Balanced Accuracy : 0.77197
##
## 'Positive' Class : 1
## Initial model has low sensitivity so need to change that:
Define a cost function with input “obs” being the observed response,
“pred.p” being predicted probability, and “pcut” being the threshold
Allows us to weight getting high sensitivity vs high specficity
costfunc <- function(obs, pred.p, pcut){
weight1 <- 50 # define the weight for "true=1 but pred=0" (false negative)
weight0 <- 1 # define the weight for "true=0 but pred=1" (false positive)
c1 <- (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut) # count for "true=1 but pred=0" (false negative)
c0 <- (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut) # count for "true=0 but pred=1" (false positive)
cost <- mean(weight1 * c1 + weight0 * c0) # misclassification with weight
return(cost)
}
#Define a sequence from 0.01 to 1 by 0.01
p.seq <- seq(from = 0.01, to = 1, by = 0.01)
# Loop for all potential cutoff values to see which provides the smallest cost
# Define a 0 vector first to save the values of cost from all cutoffs
cost <- rep(0, length(p.seq))
for (i in 1:length(p.seq)) {cost[i] <- costfunc(obs = seasonstatsmodel$IsEliteEight, pred.p = pred.glm.train, pcut = p.seq[i])
}## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 1) & (pred.p < pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length## Warning in (obs == 0) & (pred.p >= pcut): longer object length is not a multiple
## of shorter object length#Find optimal pcut
optimal.pcut.glm <- p.seq[which(cost == min(cost))]
#Higher sensitivity seen - will try this cutoff with logistic model(s)
confusionMatrix(as.factor(ifelse(pred.glm.train >= optimal.pcut.glm, "1", "0")), as.factor(seasonstatsmodel.train$IsEliteEight),
positive = "1")## Confusion Matrix and Statistics
##
## Reference
## Prediction 0 1
## 0 282 1
## 1 302 84
##
## Accuracy : 0.5471
## 95% CI : (0.5085, 0.5853)
## No Information Rate : 0.8729
## P-Value [Acc > NIR] : 1
##
## Kappa : 0.1875
##
## Mcnemar's Test P-Value : <2e-16
##
## Sensitivity : 0.9882
## Specificity : 0.4829
## Pos Pred Value : 0.2176
## Neg Pred Value : 0.9965
## Prevalence : 0.1271
## Detection Rate : 0.1256
## Detection Prevalence : 0.5770
## Balanced Accuracy : 0.7356
##
## 'Positive' Class : 1
## cost <- costfunc(obs = seasonstatsmodel.train$IsEliteEight, pred.p = pred.glm.train, pcut = optimal.pcut.glm)Perform forward selection,backward selection, and stepwise selection
#Perform forward selection,backward selection, and stepwise selection
#Forward - best model (same as stepwise)
seasonstatsmodel.glm.null <- glm(IsEliteEight ~ 1, data = seasonstatsmodel.train, family = "binomial")
seasonstatsmodel.glm.full <- glm(IsEliteEight ~ ., data = seasonstatsmodel.train, family = "binomial")
seasonstatsmodel.glm.fwd <- step(seasonstatsmodel.glm.null, scope = list(seasonstatsmodel.glm.null, upper = seasonstatsmodel.glm), direction = "forward")## Start: AIC=511.44
## IsEliteEight ~ 1
##
## Df Deviance AIC
## + Winp 1 390.59 394.59
## + MOV 1 406.23 410.23
## + SOS 1 427.63 431.63
## + OSRS 1 435.25 439.25
## + eDiff 1 435.91 439.91
## + IsPowerSix 1 449.26 453.26
## + FICFourty 1 454.33 458.33
## + DSRS 1 457.69 461.69
## + DRtg 1 478.56 482.56
## + FGM 1 479.94 483.94
## + PTS 1 480.73 484.73
## + ORBp 1 490.51 494.51
## + ORtg 1 491.53 495.53
## + BLKp 1 491.57 495.57
## + BLK 1 492.17 496.17
## + FGA 1 494.01 498.01
## + FGp 1 494.57 498.57
## + eFGp 1 497.05 501.05
## + ORB 1 498.29 502.29
## + TOVp 1 498.93 502.93
## + AST 1 500.10 504.10
## + ThreePp 1 502.43 506.43
## + TSp 1 504.13 508.13
## + DRB 1 505.16 509.16
## + PF 1 505.32 509.32
## + Pace 1 506.18 510.18
## + PossperMin 1 506.28 510.28
## + PPS 1 506.62 510.62
## + STL 1 506.84 510.84
## + STLp 1 507.19 511.19
## <none> 509.44 511.44
## + TOV 1 508.00 512.00
## + ThreePM 1 508.42 512.42
## + DRBp 1 508.96 512.96
## + ThreePA 1 509.13 513.13
## + FTp 1 509.19 513.19
## + FTA 1 509.21 513.21
## + FTM 1 509.28 513.28
## + ASTp 1 509.41 513.41
##
## Step: AIC=394.59
## IsEliteEight ~ Winp
##
## Df Deviance AIC
## + SOS 1 295.10 301.10
## + IsPowerSix 1 321.07 327.07
## + OSRS 1 357.10 363.10
## + DSRS 1 376.56 382.56
## + FGA 1 382.49 388.49
## + ORB 1 383.35 389.35
## + FICFourty 1 384.91 390.91
## + FGM 1 384.93 390.93
## + BLK 1 385.79 391.79
## + MOV 1 385.80 391.80
## + ORBp 1 385.92 391.92
## + PTS 1 386.15 392.15
## + BLKp 1 386.68 392.68
## + Pace 1 386.79 392.79
## + PossperMin 1 386.82 392.82
## + DRBp 1 388.43 394.43
## <none> 390.59 394.59
## + ASTp 1 388.84 394.84
## + PPS 1 389.08 395.08
## + TSp 1 389.47 395.47
## + DRB 1 389.60 395.60
## + TOVp 1 389.74 395.74
## + FGp 1 390.09 396.09
## + FTp 1 390.25 396.25
## + eFGp 1 390.37 396.37
## + STL 1 390.38 396.38
## + AST 1 390.40 396.40
## + ThreePp 1 390.47 396.47
## + DRtg 1 390.49 396.49
## + TOV 1 390.53 396.53
## + FTA 1 390.53 396.53
## + eDiff 1 390.56 396.56
## + FTM 1 390.57 396.57
## + ORtg 1 390.58 396.58
## + STLp 1 390.58 396.58
## + ThreePA 1 390.58 396.58
## + ThreePM 1 390.59 396.59
## + PF 1 390.59 396.59
##
## Step: AIC=301.1
## IsEliteEight ~ Winp + SOS
##
## Df Deviance AIC
## + ORB 1 289.40 297.40
## + ORBp 1 291.21 299.21
## + FTp 1 292.78 300.78
## <none> 295.10 301.10
## + TOVp 1 293.35 301.35
## + DRtg 1 293.57 301.57
## + DRBp 1 293.90 301.90
## + MOV 1 294.19 302.19
## + TOV 1 294.24 302.24
## + STLp 1 294.26 302.26
## + IsPowerSix 1 294.29 302.29
## + FGM 1 294.29 302.29
## + FGp 1 294.32 302.32
## + PPS 1 294.44 302.44
## + OSRS 1 294.50 302.50
## + TSp 1 294.51 302.51
## + eDiff 1 294.60 302.60
## + ASTp 1 294.64 302.64
## + FTM 1 294.69 302.69
## + FGA 1 294.71 302.71
## + ORtg 1 294.79 302.79
## + PTS 1 294.79 302.79
## + BLK 1 294.80 302.80
## + STL 1 294.97 302.97
## + eFGp 1 294.97 302.97
## + ThreePp 1 294.98 302.98
## + DRB 1 294.99 302.99
## + Pace 1 294.99 302.99
## + PossperMin 1 295.00 303.00
## + PF 1 295.01 303.01
## + BLKp 1 295.04 303.04
## + DSRS 1 295.05 303.05
## + AST 1 295.05 303.05
## + FICFourty 1 295.08 303.08
## + ThreePA 1 295.09 303.09
## + ThreePM 1 295.10 303.10
## + FTA 1 295.10 303.10
##
## Step: AIC=297.4
## IsEliteEight ~ Winp + SOS + ORB
##
## Df Deviance AIC
## <none> 289.40 297.40
## + DRtg 1 287.67 297.67
## + FTM 1 287.78 297.78
## + FTp 1 288.06 298.06
## + FGp 1 288.26 298.26
## + DRB 1 288.38 298.38
## + ORtg 1 288.40 298.40
## + FTA 1 288.74 298.74
## + ASTp 1 288.75 298.75
## + TOVp 1 288.84 298.84
## + IsPowerSix 1 288.90 298.90
## + MOV 1 288.91 298.91
## + ThreePM 1 288.94 298.94
## + ThreePp 1 288.94 298.94
## + FICFourty 1 288.96 298.96
## + DRBp 1 288.97 298.97
## + FGM 1 289.00 299.00
## + ThreePA 1 289.01 299.01
## + eFGp 1 289.23 299.23
## + PPS 1 289.23 299.23
## + STLp 1 289.24 299.24
## + PF 1 289.31 299.31
## + eDiff 1 289.33 299.33
## + ORBp 1 289.33 299.33
## + OSRS 1 289.34 299.34
## + DSRS 1 289.35 299.35
## + TOV 1 289.36 299.36
## + BLK 1 289.36 299.36
## + PTS 1 289.36 299.36
## + TSp 1 289.37 299.37
## + Pace 1 289.37 299.37
## + PossperMin 1 289.38 299.38
## + BLKp 1 289.38 299.38
## + AST 1 289.39 299.39
## + STL 1 289.39 299.39
## + FGA 1 289.40 299.40summary(seasonstatsmodel.glm.fwd)##
## Call:
## glm(formula = IsEliteEight ~ Winp + SOS + ORB, family = "binomial",
## data = seasonstatsmodel.train)
##
## Deviance Residuals:
## Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
## -1.9169 -0.3367 -0.1541 -0.0242 3.1765
##
## Coefficients:
## Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)
## (Intercept) -16.8206 1.7991 -9.350 < 2e-16 ***
## Winp 8.7272 0.9705 8.993 < 2e-16 ***
## SOS 11.5636 1.7116 6.756 1.42e-11 ***
## ORB 3.0045 1.2632 2.379 0.0174 *
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
##
## Null deviance: 509.44 on 668 degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 289.40 on 665 degrees of freedom
## AIC: 297.4
##
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 7sum.fwd <- summary(seasonstatsmodel.glm.fwd)
dim(sum.fwd$coefficients)## [1] 4 4AIC(seasonstatsmodel.glm.fwd)## [1] 297.3989pred.glm.train2 <- predict(seasonstatsmodel.glm.fwd, type = "response")
pred.glm.valid2 <- predict(seasonstatsmodel.glm.fwd, newdata = seasonstatsmodel.valid, type = "response")
confusionMatrix(as.factor(ifelse(pred.glm.train2 >= optimal.pcut.glm, "1", "0")), as.factor(seasonstatsmodel.train$IsEliteEight),
positive = "1")## Confusion Matrix and Statistics
##
## Reference
## Prediction 0 1
## 0 229 1
## 1 355 84
##
## Accuracy : 0.4679
## 95% CI : (0.4295, 0.5065)
## No Information Rate : 0.8729
## P-Value [Acc > NIR] : 1
##
## Kappa : 0.1369
##
## Mcnemar's Test P-Value : <2e-16
##
## Sensitivity : 0.9882
## Specificity : 0.3921
## Pos Pred Value : 0.1913
## Neg Pred Value : 0.9957
## Prevalence : 0.1271
## Detection Rate : 0.1256
## Detection Prevalence : 0.6562
## Balanced Accuracy : 0.6902
##
## 'Positive' Class : 1
## #Perform backward elimination - 3rd best
seasonstatsmodel.glm.back <- step(seasonstatsmodel.glm.full, direction = "backward")## Start: AIC=342.61
## IsEliteEight ~ IsPowerSix + TSp + eFGp + ORBp + DRBp + ASTp +
## TOVp + STLp + BLKp + PPS + FICFourty + ORtg + DRtg + eDiff +
## PossperMin + Pace + FGM + FGA + FGp + ThreePM + ThreePA +
## ThreePp + FTM + FTA + FTp + TOV + PF + ORB + DRB + AST +
## STL + BLK + PTS + Winp + MOV + SOS + OSRS + DSRS
##
## Df Deviance AIC
## - FTA 1 264.61 340.61
## - TOVp 1 264.61 340.61
## - ThreePM 1 264.62 340.62
## - Pace 1 264.62 340.62
## - STLp 1 264.62 340.62
## - FTM 1 264.63 340.63
## - BLK 1 264.63 340.63
## - SOS 1 264.64 340.64
## - PPS 1 264.66 340.66
## - AST 1 264.66 340.66
## - IsPowerSix 1 264.67 340.67
## - TOV 1 264.69 340.69
## - TSp 1 264.69 340.69
## - ORtg 1 264.70 340.70
## - FGA 1 264.71 340.71
## - eFGp 1 264.71 340.71
## - STL 1 264.75 340.75
## - FTp 1 264.77 340.77
## - PossperMin 1 264.80 340.80
## - DRBp 1 264.80 340.80
## - eDiff 1 264.85 340.85
## - DRtg 1 264.87 340.87
## - PF 1 264.87 340.87
## - ThreePp 1 264.89 340.89
## - DRB 1 265.05 341.05
## - MOV 1 265.13 341.13
## - FICFourty 1 265.19 341.19
## - FGp 1 265.21 341.21
## - DSRS 1 265.33 341.33
## - ORBp 1 265.38 341.38
## - BLKp 1 265.40 341.40
## - OSRS 1 265.74 341.74
## - FGM 1 265.98 341.98
## - ORB 1 266.22 342.22
## - ASTp 1 266.38 342.38
## <none> 264.61 342.61
## - ThreePA 1 267.10 343.09
## - PTS 1 271.27 347.27
## - Winp 1 293.09 369.09
##
## Step: AIC=340.61
## IsEliteEight ~ IsPowerSix + TSp + eFGp + ORBp + DRBp + ASTp +
## TOVp + STLp + BLKp + PPS + FICFourty + ORtg + DRtg + eDiff +
## PossperMin + Pace + FGM + FGA + FGp + ThreePM + ThreePA +
## ThreePp + FTM + FTp + TOV + PF + ORB + DRB + AST + STL +
## BLK + PTS + Winp + MOV + SOS + OSRS + DSRS
##
## Df Deviance AIC
## - TOVp 1 264.61 338.61
## - ThreePM 1 264.62 338.62
## - Pace 1 264.62 338.62
## - STLp 1 264.62 338.62
## - FTM 1 264.63 338.63
## - BLK 1 264.63 338.63
## - SOS 1 264.64 338.64
## - AST 1 264.66 338.66
## - PPS 1 264.66 338.66
## - IsPowerSix 1 264.67 338.67
## - TOV 1 264.69 338.69
## - TSp 1 264.69 338.69
## - ORtg 1 264.70 338.70
## - FGA 1 264.71 338.71
## - eFGp 1 264.72 338.72
## - STL 1 264.75 338.75
## - FTp 1 264.79 338.79
## - PossperMin 1 264.80 338.80
## - DRBp 1 264.81 338.80
## - eDiff 1 264.85 338.85
## - DRtg 1 264.87 338.87
## - PF 1 264.87 338.87
## - ThreePp 1 264.89 338.89
## - DRB 1 265.05 339.05
## - MOV 1 265.13 339.13
## - FICFourty 1 265.20 339.20
## - FGp 1 265.21 339.21
## - DSRS 1 265.35 339.35
## - ORBp 1 265.39 339.39
## - BLKp 1 265.40 339.40
## - OSRS 1 265.75 339.75
## - FGM 1 265.99 339.99
## - ORB 1 266.23 340.23
## - ASTp 1 266.40 340.40
## <none> 264.61 340.61
## - ThreePA 1 267.11 341.11
## - PTS 1 271.30 345.30
## - Winp 1 293.10 367.10
##
## Step: AIC=338.61
## IsEliteEight ~ IsPowerSix + TSp + eFGp + ORBp + DRBp + ASTp +
## STLp + BLKp + PPS + FICFourty + ORtg + DRtg + eDiff + PossperMin +
## Pace + FGM + FGA + FGp + ThreePM + ThreePA + ThreePp + FTM +
## FTp + TOV + PF + ORB + DRB + AST + STL + BLK + PTS + Winp +
## MOV + SOS + OSRS + DSRS
##
## Df Deviance AIC
## - ThreePM 1 264.62 336.62
## - Pace 1 264.62 336.62
## - STLp 1 264.62 336.62
## - FTM 1 264.63 336.63
## - BLK 1 264.63 336.63
## - SOS 1 264.64 336.64
## - AST 1 264.66 336.66
## - PPS 1 264.66 336.66
## - IsPowerSix 1 264.67 336.67
## - ORtg 1 264.70 336.70
## - FGA 1 264.71 336.71
## - TSp 1 264.72 336.72
## - eFGp 1 264.72 336.72
## - TOV 1 264.72 336.72
## - STL 1 264.75 336.75
## - FTp 1 264.79 336.79
## - PossperMin 1 264.80 336.80
## - DRBp 1 264.81 336.81
## - eDiff 1 264.85 336.85
## - DRtg 1 264.87 336.87
## - PF 1 264.87 336.87
## - ThreePp 1 264.89 336.89
## - DRB 1 265.12 337.12
## - MOV 1 265.15 337.15
## - FICFourty 1 265.20 337.20
## - FGp 1 265.22 337.22
## - DSRS 1 265.36 337.36
## - BLKp 1 265.40 337.40
## - OSRS 1 265.78 337.78
## - FGM 1 265.99 337.99
## - ORBp 1 266.38 338.38
## - ASTp 1 266.40 338.40
## - ORB 1 266.44 338.44
## <none> 264.61 338.61
## - ThreePA 1 267.11 339.11
## - PTS 1 271.31 343.31
## - Winp 1 293.23 365.23
##
## Step: AIC=336.62
## IsEliteEight ~ IsPowerSix + TSp + eFGp + ORBp + DRBp + ASTp +
## STLp + BLKp + PPS + FICFourty + ORtg + DRtg + eDiff + PossperMin +
## Pace + FGM + FGA + FGp + ThreePA + ThreePp + FTM + FTp +
## TOV + PF + ORB + DRB + AST + STL + BLK + PTS + Winp + MOV +
## SOS + OSRS + DSRS
##
## Df Deviance AIC
## - Pace 1 264.62 334.62
## - STLp 1 264.63 334.63
## - FTM 1 264.64 334.64
## - BLK 1 264.64 334.64
## - SOS 1 264.64 334.64
## - PPS 1 264.67 334.67
## - AST 1 264.67 334.67
## - IsPowerSix 1 264.67 334.67
## - ORtg 1 264.70 334.70
## - FGA 1 264.71 334.71
## - eFGp 1 264.72 334.72
## - TSp 1 264.72 334.72
## - TOV 1 264.73 334.73
## - STL 1 264.75 334.75
## - FTp 1 264.80 334.80
## - PossperMin 1 264.80 334.80
## - DRBp 1 264.81 334.81
## - eDiff 1 264.85 334.85
## - DRtg 1 264.87 334.87
## - PF 1 264.88 334.88
## - ThreePp 1 264.89 334.90
## - DRB 1 265.14 335.14
## - MOV 1 265.17 335.17
## - FICFourty 1 265.22 335.22
## - FGp 1 265.24 335.24
## - DSRS 1 265.36 335.36
## - BLKp 1 265.41 335.41
## - OSRS 1 265.79 335.78
## - FGM 1 266.00 336.00
## - ORBp 1 266.39 336.39
## - ORB 1 266.44 336.44
## - ASTp 1 266.47 336.47
## <none> 264.62 336.62
## - ThreePA 1 267.82 337.82
## - PTS 1 271.31 341.32
## - Winp 1 293.23 363.23
##
## Step: AIC=334.62
## IsEliteEight ~ IsPowerSix + TSp + eFGp + ORBp + DRBp + ASTp +
## STLp + BLKp + PPS + FICFourty + ORtg + DRtg + eDiff + PossperMin +
## FGM + FGA + FGp + ThreePA + ThreePp + FTM + FTp + TOV + PF +
## ORB + DRB + AST + STL + BLK + PTS + Winp + MOV + SOS + OSRS +
## DSRS
##
## Df Deviance AIC
## - STLp 1 264.64 332.64
## - FTM 1 264.64 332.64
## - BLK 1 264.65 332.65
## - SOS 1 264.65 332.65
## - PPS 1 264.67 332.67
## - AST 1 264.67 332.67
## - IsPowerSix 1 264.68 332.68
## - ORtg 1 264.72 332.72
## - FGA 1 264.72 332.72
## - eFGp 1 264.73 332.72
## - TSp 1 264.73 332.73
## - TOV 1 264.74 332.74
## - STL 1 264.76 332.76
## - FTp 1 264.80 332.80
## - DRBp 1 264.82 332.82
## - eDiff 1 264.87 332.87
## - DRtg 1 264.89 332.89
## - ThreePp 1 264.90 332.90
## - PF 1 264.90 332.90
## - DRB 1 265.14 333.14
## - MOV 1 265.18 333.18
## - FICFourty 1 265.23 333.23
## - FGp 1 265.25 333.25
## - DSRS 1 265.38 333.37
## - BLKp 1 265.42 333.42
## - OSRS 1 265.80 333.80
## - FGM 1 266.06 334.06
## - ORBp 1 266.42 334.42
## - ORB 1 266.44 334.44
## - ASTp 1 266.47 334.47
## <none> 264.62 334.62
## - ThreePA 1 267.84 335.84
## - PTS 1 271.42 339.42
## - PossperMin 1 273.12 341.12
## - Winp 1 293.25 361.25
##
## Step: AIC=332.64
## IsEliteEight ~ IsPowerSix + TSp + eFGp + ORBp + DRBp + ASTp +
## BLKp + PPS + FICFourty + ORtg + DRtg + eDiff + PossperMin +
## FGM + FGA + FGp + ThreePA + ThreePp + FTM + FTp + TOV + PF +
## ORB + DRB + AST + STL + BLK + PTS + Winp + MOV + SOS + OSRS +
## DSRS
##
## Df Deviance AIC
## - FTM 1 264.65 330.65
## - BLK 1 264.66 330.66
## - SOS 1 264.66 330.66
## - PPS 1 264.68 330.68
## - AST 1 264.68 330.68
## - IsPowerSix 1 264.69 330.69
## - ORtg 1 264.73 330.73
## - eFGp 1 264.74 330.74
## - FGA 1 264.75 330.75
## - TSp 1 264.75 330.75
## - TOV 1 264.75 330.75
## - DRBp 1 264.82 330.82
## - FTp 1 264.82 330.82
## - eDiff 1 264.88 330.88
## - DRtg 1 264.90 330.90
## - PF 1 264.91 330.91
## - ThreePp 1 264.91 330.91
## - STL 1 264.93 330.93
## - DRB 1 265.19 331.19
## - MOV 1 265.19 331.19
## - FGp 1 265.25 331.25
## - FICFourty 1 265.31 331.31
## - DSRS 1 265.41 331.41
## - BLKp 1 265.46 331.46
## - OSRS 1 265.84 331.84
## - FGM 1 266.06 332.06
## - ORB 1 266.44 332.44
## - ORBp 1 266.49 332.49
## - ASTp 1 266.54 332.54
## <none> 264.64 332.64
## - ThreePA 1 267.84 333.84
## - PTS 1 271.49 337.49
## - PossperMin 1 273.25 339.25
## - Winp 1 293.82 359.82
##
## Step: AIC=330.65
## IsEliteEight ~ IsPowerSix + TSp + eFGp + ORBp + DRBp + ASTp +
## BLKp + PPS + FICFourty + ORtg + DRtg + eDiff + PossperMin +
## FGM + FGA + FGp + ThreePA + ThreePp + FTp + TOV + PF + ORB +
## DRB + AST + STL + BLK + PTS + Winp + MOV + SOS + OSRS + DSRS
##
## Df Deviance AIC
## - SOS 1 264.68 328.68
## - BLK 1 264.68 328.68
## - AST 1 264.70 328.70
## - IsPowerSix 1 264.71 328.71
## - PPS 1 264.72 328.72
## - eFGp 1 264.74 328.74
## - ORtg 1 264.74 328.74
## - FGA 1 264.75 328.75
## - TOV 1 264.76 328.76
## - TSp 1 264.80 328.80
## - DRBp 1 264.82 328.82
## - FTp 1 264.84 328.84
## - eDiff 1 264.88 328.88
## - DRtg 1 264.90 328.90
## - PF 1 264.91 328.91
## - ThreePp 1 264.91 328.91
## - STL 1 264.94 328.94
## - MOV 1 265.19 329.19
## - DRB 1 265.20 329.20
## - FGp 1 265.26 329.26
## - FICFourty 1 265.31 329.31
## - DSRS 1 265.42 329.42
## - BLKp 1 265.46 329.47
## - OSRS 1 265.85 329.84
## - FGM 1 266.06 330.06
## - ORBp 1 266.50 330.50
## - ORB 1 266.53 330.53
## - ASTp 1 266.55 330.54
## <none> 264.65 330.65
## - ThreePA 1 267.84 331.84
## - PTS 1 271.50 335.50
## - PossperMin 1 274.00 338.00
## - Winp 1 294.21 358.21
##
## Step: AIC=328.68
## IsEliteEight ~ IsPowerSix + TSp + eFGp + ORBp + DRBp + ASTp +
## BLKp + PPS + FICFourty + ORtg + DRtg + eDiff + PossperMin +
## FGM + FGA + FGp + ThreePA + ThreePp + FTp + TOV + PF + ORB +
## DRB + AST + STL + BLK + PTS + Winp + MOV + OSRS + DSRS
##
## Df Deviance AIC
## - BLK 1 264.70 326.70
## - AST 1 264.73 326.73
## - IsPowerSix 1 264.74 326.74
## - PPS 1 264.75 326.75
## - ORtg 1 264.76 326.76
## - FGA 1 264.77 326.77
## - eFGp 1 264.78 326.78
## - TOV 1 264.79 326.79
## - TSp 1 264.81 326.81
## - DRBp 1 264.84 326.84
## - FTp 1 264.86 326.86
## - eDiff 1 264.91 326.91
## - DRtg 1 264.93 326.93
## - ThreePp 1 264.94 326.94
## - STL 1 264.95 326.95
## - PF 1 264.95 326.95
## - DRB 1 265.22 327.22
## - FGp 1 265.27 327.27
## - FICFourty 1 265.33 327.33
## - BLKp 1 265.48 327.48
## - FGM 1 266.11 328.11
## - ORB 1 266.54 328.54
## - ORBp 1 266.56 328.56
## - ASTp 1 266.58 328.58
## <none> 264.68 328.68
## - MOV 1 267.20 329.20
## - ThreePA 1 267.84 329.84
## - PTS 1 271.54 333.54
## - PossperMin 1 274.01 336.01
## - DSRS 1 280.49 342.49
## - OSRS 1 286.88 348.88
## - Winp 1 294.27 356.27
##
## Step: AIC=326.7
## IsEliteEight ~ IsPowerSix + TSp + eFGp + ORBp + DRBp + ASTp +
## BLKp + PPS + FICFourty + ORtg + DRtg + eDiff + PossperMin +
## FGM + FGA + FGp + ThreePA + ThreePp + FTp + TOV + PF + ORB +
## DRB + AST + STL + PTS + Winp + MOV + OSRS + DSRS
##
## Df Deviance AIC
## - AST 1 264.75 324.75
## - IsPowerSix 1 264.77 324.77
## - PPS 1 264.78 324.78
## - ORtg 1 264.78 324.78
## - FGA 1 264.80 324.80
## - TOV 1 264.81 324.82
## - eFGp 1 264.82 324.82
## - TSp 1 264.83 324.83
## - DRBp 1 264.86 324.86
## - FTp 1 264.87 324.87
## - eDiff 1 264.93 324.93
## - DRtg 1 264.95 324.95
## - STL 1 264.97 324.97
## - ThreePp 1 264.97 324.97
## - PF 1 264.98 324.98
## - DRB 1 265.23 325.23
## - FGp 1 265.30 325.30
## - FICFourty 1 265.34 325.34
## - BLKp 1 265.75 325.74
## - FGM 1 266.12 326.12
## - ORBp 1 266.57 326.57
## - ORB 1 266.58 326.58
## - ASTp 1 266.58 326.58
## <none> 264.70 326.70
## - MOV 1 267.24 327.24
## - ThreePA 1 267.87 327.87
## - PTS 1 271.61 331.61
## - PossperMin 1 274.05 334.05
## - DSRS 1 280.49 340.49
## - OSRS 1 286.88 346.88
## - Winp 1 294.27 354.27
##
## Step: AIC=324.75
## IsEliteEight ~ IsPowerSix + TSp + eFGp + ORBp + DRBp + ASTp +
## BLKp + PPS + FICFourty + ORtg + DRtg + eDiff + PossperMin +
## FGM + FGA + FGp + ThreePA + ThreePp + FTp + TOV + PF + ORB +
## DRB + STL + PTS + Winp + MOV + OSRS + DSRS
##
## Df Deviance AIC
## - IsPowerSix 1 264.81 322.81
## - ORtg 1 264.82 322.82
## - PPS 1 264.83 322.83
## - FGA 1 264.86 322.86
## - TOV 1 264.86 322.86
## - TSp 1 264.86 322.86
## - eFGp 1 264.89 322.89
## - FTp 1 264.91 322.91
## - DRBp 1 264.92 322.92
## - eDiff 1 264.95 322.95
## - DRtg 1 264.97 322.97
## - STL 1 264.99 322.99
## - ThreePp 1 264.99 322.99
## - PF 1 265.03 323.03
## - DRB 1 265.26 323.26
## - FGp 1 265.38 323.38
## - FICFourty 1 265.39 323.39
## - BLKp 1 265.80 323.80
## - FGM 1 266.21 324.21
## - ORB 1 266.61 324.61
## - ORBp 1 266.70 324.70
## <none> 264.75 324.75
## - ASTp 1 267.09 325.09
## - MOV 1 267.28 325.28
## - ThreePA 1 267.97 325.97
## - PTS 1 271.74 329.74
## - PossperMin 1 274.10 332.10
## - DSRS 1 280.60 338.60
## - OSRS 1 286.93 344.93
## - Winp 1 294.42 352.42
##
## Step: AIC=322.81
## IsEliteEight ~ TSp + eFGp + ORBp + DRBp + ASTp + BLKp + PPS +
## FICFourty + ORtg + DRtg + eDiff + PossperMin + FGM + FGA +
## FGp + ThreePA + ThreePp + FTp + TOV + PF + ORB + DRB + STL +
## PTS + Winp + MOV + OSRS + DSRS
##
## Df Deviance AIC
## - PPS 1 264.89 320.89
## - ORtg 1 264.91 320.91
## - eFGp 1 264.94 320.94
## - TOV 1 264.94 320.94
## - FGA 1 264.94 320.94
## - TSp 1 264.95 320.95
## - FTp 1 264.98 320.98
## - DRBp 1 265.01 321.01
## - ThreePp 1 265.06 321.06
## - eDiff 1 265.06 321.07
## - STL 1 265.08 321.08
## - PF 1 265.08 321.08
## - DRtg 1 265.09 321.09
## - DRB 1 265.31 321.31
## - FICFourty 1 265.44 321.44
## - FGp 1 265.46 321.46
## - BLKp 1 265.89 321.89
## - FGM 1 266.25 322.25
## - ORB 1 266.73 322.73
## <none> 264.81 322.81
## - ORBp 1 266.85 322.85
## - ASTp 1 267.11 323.11
## - MOV 1 267.61 323.61
## - ThreePA 1 268.03 324.03
## - PTS 1 271.75 327.75
## - PossperMin 1 274.12 330.12
## - Winp 1 294.67 350.67
## - DSRS 1 295.74 351.74
## - OSRS 1 306.44 362.44
##
## Step: AIC=320.89
## IsEliteEight ~ TSp + eFGp + ORBp + DRBp + ASTp + BLKp + FICFourty +
## ORtg + DRtg + eDiff + PossperMin + FGM + FGA + FGp + ThreePA +
## ThreePp + FTp + TOV + PF + ORB + DRB + STL + PTS + Winp +
## MOV + OSRS + DSRS
##
## Df Deviance AIC
## - ORtg 1 264.98 318.98
## - eFGp 1 264.99 318.99
## - FGA 1 264.99 318.99
## - TOV 1 265.01 319.01
## - FTp 1 265.09 319.09
## - DRBp 1 265.11 319.11
## - eDiff 1 265.13 319.13
## - ThreePp 1 265.13 319.13
## - TSp 1 265.14 319.14
## - DRtg 1 265.15 319.15
## - PF 1 265.17 319.17
## - STL 1 265.18 319.18
## - DRB 1 265.37 319.37
## - FICFourty 1 265.46 319.46
## - FGp 1 265.56 319.56
## - BLKp 1 265.90 319.90
## - FGM 1 266.36 320.36
## - ORB 1 266.75 320.75
## <none> 264.89 320.89
## - ORBp 1 266.92 320.91
## - ASTp 1 267.13 321.14
## - MOV 1 267.66 321.66
## - ThreePA 1 268.07 322.07
## - PTS 1 271.95 325.95
## - PossperMin 1 274.16 328.16
## - Winp 1 295.27 349.27
## - DSRS 1 296.44 350.44
## - OSRS 1 306.45 360.45
##
## Step: AIC=318.98
## IsEliteEight ~ TSp + eFGp + ORBp + DRBp + ASTp + BLKp + FICFourty +
## DRtg + eDiff + PossperMin + FGM + FGA + FGp + ThreePA + ThreePp +
## FTp + TOV + PF + ORB + DRB + STL + PTS + Winp + MOV + OSRS +
## DSRS
##
## Df Deviance AIC
## - FGA 1 265.06 317.06
## - TOV 1 265.09 317.09
## - eFGp 1 265.09 317.09
## - FTp 1 265.17 317.17
## - ThreePp 1 265.20 317.20
## - DRBp 1 265.21 317.21
## - TSp 1 265.21 317.21
## - STL 1 265.24 317.24
## - PF 1 265.28 317.28
## - DRB 1 265.46 317.46
## - FICFourty 1 265.62 317.62
## - FGp 1 265.63 317.63
## - BLKp 1 266.07 318.07
## - FGM 1 266.40 318.40
## - ORB 1 266.86 318.86
## <none> 264.98 318.98
## - ORBp 1 267.10 319.10
## - ASTp 1 267.45 319.45
## - MOV 1 267.70 319.70
## - ThreePA 1 268.15 320.15
## - PTS 1 272.10 324.10
## - eDiff 1 272.88 324.88
## - PossperMin 1 274.47 326.47
## - DRtg 1 275.89 327.89
## - Winp 1 295.28 347.28
## - DSRS 1 296.65 348.65
## - OSRS 1 306.51 358.51
##
## Step: AIC=317.06
## IsEliteEight ~ TSp + eFGp + ORBp + DRBp + ASTp + BLKp + FICFourty +
## DRtg + eDiff + PossperMin + FGM + FGp + ThreePA + ThreePp +
## FTp + TOV + PF + ORB + DRB + STL + PTS + Winp + MOV + OSRS +
## DSRS
##
## Df Deviance AIC
## - TOV 1 265.18 315.18
## - FTp 1 265.21 315.21
## - TSp 1 265.21 315.21
## - eFGp 1 265.26 315.26
## - DRBp 1 265.29 315.29
## - STL 1 265.30 315.30
## - ThreePp 1 265.31 315.31
## - PF 1 265.35 315.35
## - DRB 1 265.56 315.56
## - FGp 1 265.70 315.70
## - FICFourty 1 265.71 315.71
## - BLKp 1 266.16 316.16
## - FGM 1 266.66 316.66
## - ORB 1 266.93 316.93
## <none> 265.06 317.06
## - ORBp 1 267.19 317.19
## - ASTp 1 267.48 317.48
## - MOV 1 267.74 317.74
## - ThreePA 1 268.23 318.23
## - PTS 1 272.11 322.11
## - eDiff 1 272.95 322.95
## - PossperMin 1 275.30 325.30
## - DRtg 1 276.17 326.17
## - Winp 1 295.37 345.37
## - DSRS 1 296.71 346.71
## - OSRS 1 307.17 357.17
##
## Step: AIC=315.18
## IsEliteEight ~ TSp + eFGp + ORBp + DRBp + ASTp + BLKp + FICFourty +
## DRtg + eDiff + PossperMin + FGM + FGp + ThreePA + ThreePp +
## FTp + PF + ORB + DRB + STL + PTS + Winp + MOV + OSRS + DSRS
##
## Df Deviance AIC
## - TSp 1 265.30 313.30
## - FTp 1 265.35 313.35
## - eFGp 1 265.35 313.35
## - DRBp 1 265.39 313.39
## - STL 1 265.39 313.39
## - PF 1 265.43 313.43
## - ThreePp 1 265.45 313.45
## - DRB 1 265.67 313.67
## - FICFourty 1 265.75 313.75
## - FGp 1 265.84 313.84
## - BLKp 1 266.18 314.18
## - FGM 1 266.83 314.83
## - ORB 1 266.98 314.98
## <none> 265.18 315.18
## - ORBp 1 267.21 315.21
## - ASTp 1 267.54 315.54
## - MOV 1 267.77 315.77
## - ThreePA 1 268.34 316.34
## - PTS 1 272.26 320.26
## - eDiff 1 272.95 320.95
## - PossperMin 1 275.62 323.62
## - DRtg 1 276.59 324.59
## - Winp 1 295.40 343.40
## - DSRS 1 296.98 344.98
## - OSRS 1 307.79 355.79
##
## Step: AIC=313.3
## IsEliteEight ~ eFGp + ORBp + DRBp + ASTp + BLKp + FICFourty +
## DRtg + eDiff + PossperMin + FGM + FGp + ThreePA + ThreePp +
## FTp + PF + ORB + DRB + STL + PTS + Winp + MOV + OSRS + DSRS
##
## Df Deviance AIC
## - FTp 1 265.38 311.38
## - STL 1 265.50 311.50
## - DRBp 1 265.53 311.53
## - PF 1 265.56 311.56
## - ThreePp 1 265.56 311.56
## - DRB 1 265.69 311.69
## - FICFourty 1 265.76 311.76
## - FGp 1 265.96 311.96
## - BLKp 1 266.20 312.20
## - FGM 1 266.83 312.83
## - ORB 1 267.12 313.12
## - ORBp 1 267.22 313.22
## <none> 265.30 313.30
## - eFGp 1 267.44 313.44
## - ASTp 1 267.55 313.55
## - MOV 1 267.77 313.77
## - ThreePA 1 268.41 314.41
## - PTS 1 272.31 318.31
## - eDiff 1 272.95 318.95
## - PossperMin 1 275.63 321.63
## - DRtg 1 277.27 323.27
## - Winp 1 296.58 342.58
## - DSRS 1 300.36 346.36
## - OSRS 1 310.62 356.62
##
## Step: AIC=311.38
## IsEliteEight ~ eFGp + ORBp + DRBp + ASTp + BLKp + FICFourty +
## DRtg + eDiff + PossperMin + FGM + FGp + ThreePA + ThreePp +
## PF + ORB + DRB + STL + PTS + Winp + MOV + OSRS + DSRS
##
## Df Deviance AIC
## - STL 1 265.57 309.57
## - DRBp 1 265.58 309.59
## - ThreePp 1 265.61 309.61
## - PF 1 265.63 309.63
## - DRB 1 265.76 309.76
## - FICFourty 1 265.85 309.85
## - FGp 1 266.14 310.14
## - BLKp 1 266.26 310.26
## - FGM 1 266.94 310.94
## - ORB 1 267.26 311.27
## <none> 265.38 311.38
## - ORBp 1 267.56 311.56
## - ASTp 1 267.63 311.63
## - eFGp 1 267.66 311.66
## - MOV 1 267.85 311.85
## - ThreePA 1 268.78 312.78
## - PTS 1 272.46 316.46
## - eDiff 1 273.47 317.47
## - PossperMin 1 275.96 319.96
## - DRtg 1 278.33 322.33
## - Winp 1 296.59 340.59
## - DSRS 1 300.38 344.37
## - OSRS 1 310.65 354.65
##
## Step: AIC=309.57
## IsEliteEight ~ eFGp + ORBp + DRBp + ASTp + BLKp + FICFourty +
## DRtg + eDiff + PossperMin + FGM + FGp + ThreePA + ThreePp +
## PF + ORB + DRB + PTS + Winp + MOV + OSRS + DSRS
##
## Df Deviance AIC
## - DRBp 1 265.73 307.73
## - PF 1 265.75 307.75
## - ThreePp 1 265.84 307.84
## - DRB 1 265.87 307.87
## - FICFourty 1 265.93 307.93
## - BLKp 1 266.29 308.29
## - FGp 1 266.34 308.34
## - FGM 1 267.16 309.16
## - ORB 1 267.44 309.43
## <none> 265.57 309.57
## - ASTp 1 267.63 309.63
## - ORBp 1 267.79 309.79
## - eFGp 1 267.83 309.83
## - MOV 1 267.91 309.91
## - ThreePA 1 268.87 310.87
## - PTS 1 272.81 314.81
## - eDiff 1 273.64 315.64
## - PossperMin 1 276.19 318.19
## - DRtg 1 278.43 320.43
## - Winp 1 296.66 338.66
## - DSRS 1 300.65 342.65
## - OSRS 1 310.68 352.68
##
## Step: AIC=307.73
## IsEliteEight ~ eFGp + ORBp + ASTp + BLKp + FICFourty + DRtg +
## eDiff + PossperMin + FGM + FGp + ThreePA + ThreePp + PF +
## ORB + DRB + PTS + Winp + MOV + OSRS + DSRS
##
## Df Deviance AIC
## - PF 1 265.93 305.93
## - ThreePp 1 265.98 305.98
## - FICFourty 1 266.17 306.17
## - DRB 1 266.38 306.38
## - BLKp 1 266.39 306.39
## - FGp 1 266.47 306.47
## - FGM 1 267.25 307.25
## <none> 265.73 307.73
## - ORB 1 267.75 307.75
## - ORBp 1 267.95 307.95
## - ASTp 1 268.04 308.04
## - eFGp 1 268.15 308.15
## - MOV 1 268.23 308.23
## - ThreePA 1 268.94 308.94
## - PTS 1 272.86 312.86
## - eDiff 1 273.81 313.81
## - PossperMin 1 276.45 316.45
## - DRtg 1 278.90 318.90
## - Winp 1 297.11 337.11
## - DSRS 1 301.20 341.20
## - OSRS 1 314.94 354.94
##
## Step: AIC=305.93
## IsEliteEight ~ eFGp + ORBp + ASTp + BLKp + FICFourty + DRtg +
## eDiff + PossperMin + FGM + FGp + ThreePA + ThreePp + ORB +
## DRB + PTS + Winp + MOV + OSRS + DSRS
##
## Df Deviance AIC
## - FICFourty 1 266.19 304.19
## - ThreePp 1 266.22 304.22
## - BLKp 1 266.43 304.43
## - DRB 1 266.45 304.45
## - FGp 1 266.58 304.58
## - FGM 1 267.51 305.51
## <none> 265.93 305.93
## - ASTp 1 268.04 306.04
## - ORBp 1 268.08 306.08
## - MOV 1 268.30 306.30
## - eFGp 1 268.30 306.30
## - ORB 1 268.39 306.39
## - ThreePA 1 269.09 307.09
## - PTS 1 272.88 310.88
## - eDiff 1 273.90 311.90
## - PossperMin 1 276.99 314.99
## - DRtg 1 279.83 317.83
## - Winp 1 297.16 335.16
## - DSRS 1 301.49 339.49
## - OSRS 1 314.98 352.98
##
## Step: AIC=304.19
## IsEliteEight ~ eFGp + ORBp + ASTp + BLKp + DRtg + eDiff + PossperMin +
## FGM + FGp + ThreePA + ThreePp + ORB + DRB + PTS + Winp +
## MOV + OSRS + DSRS
##
## Df Deviance AIC
## - ThreePp 1 266.40 302.40
## - BLKp 1 266.43 302.43
## - DRB 1 266.46 302.46
## - FGp 1 266.95 302.95
## - ORBp 1 268.10 304.10
## <none> 266.19 304.19
## - ASTp 1 268.30 304.30
## - MOV 1 268.30 304.30
## - eFGp 1 268.41 304.41
## - FGM 1 268.42 304.42
## - ORB 1 269.22 305.22
## - ThreePA 1 269.45 305.45
## - PTS 1 273.04 309.04
## - eDiff 1 273.92 309.92
## - PossperMin 1 276.99 312.99
## - DRtg 1 282.32 318.32
## - Winp 1 298.05 334.05
## - DSRS 1 301.52 337.52
## - OSRS 1 318.14 354.14
##
## Step: AIC=302.4
## IsEliteEight ~ eFGp + ORBp + ASTp + BLKp + DRtg + eDiff + PossperMin +
## FGM + FGp + ThreePA + ORB + DRB + PTS + Winp + MOV + OSRS +
## DSRS
##
## Df Deviance AIC
## - DRB 1 266.65 300.65
## - BLKp 1 266.69 300.69
## - FGp 1 267.23 301.23
## - ORBp 1 268.29 302.29
## <none> 266.40 302.40
## - MOV 1 268.41 302.41
## - FGM 1 268.50 302.50
## - ASTp 1 268.59 302.59
## - eFGp 1 269.18 303.18
## - ORB 1 269.61 303.61
## - ThreePA 1 269.93 303.93
## - PTS 1 273.27 307.27
## - eDiff 1 274.31 308.31
## - PossperMin 1 277.25 311.25
## - DRtg 1 282.49 316.49
## - Winp 1 298.42 332.42
## - DSRS 1 301.83 335.83
## - OSRS 1 318.77 352.77
##
## Step: AIC=300.65
## IsEliteEight ~ eFGp + ORBp + ASTp + BLKp + DRtg + eDiff + PossperMin +
## FGM + FGp + ThreePA + ORB + PTS + Winp + MOV + OSRS + DSRS
##
## Df Deviance AIC
## - BLKp 1 266.99 298.99
## - FGp 1 267.45 299.45
## - MOV 1 268.55 300.55
## <none> 266.65 300.65
## - FGM 1 268.77 300.77
## - ASTp 1 269.16 301.16
## - ORBp 1 269.25 301.25
## - eFGp 1 269.48 301.48
## - ORB 1 269.61 301.61
## - ThreePA 1 270.58 302.58
## - PTS 1 273.41 305.41
## - eDiff 1 275.18 307.18
## - PossperMin 1 278.15 310.15
## - DRtg 1 283.36 315.36
## - Winp 1 299.55 331.55
## - DSRS 1 302.13 334.13
## - OSRS 1 319.91 351.91
##
## Step: AIC=298.99
## IsEliteEight ~ eFGp + ORBp + ASTp + DRtg + eDiff + PossperMin +
## FGM + FGp + ThreePA + ORB + PTS + Winp + MOV + OSRS + DSRS
##
## Df Deviance AIC
## - FGp 1 267.79 297.79
## - MOV 1 268.88 298.88
## <none> 266.99 298.99
## - FGM 1 269.05 299.05
## - ASTp 1 269.34 299.34
## - ORBp 1 269.39 299.39
## - eFGp 1 269.65 299.65
## - ORB 1 269.85 299.85
## - ThreePA 1 271.21 301.21
## - PTS 1 273.70 303.70
## - eDiff 1 275.32 305.32
## - PossperMin 1 278.68 308.68
## - DRtg 1 283.43 313.43
## - Winp 1 299.72 329.72
## - DSRS 1 302.55 332.55
## - OSRS 1 319.95 349.95
##
## Step: AIC=297.79
## IsEliteEight ~ eFGp + ORBp + ASTp + DRtg + eDiff + PossperMin +
## FGM + ThreePA + ORB + PTS + Winp + MOV + OSRS + DSRS
##
## Df Deviance AIC
## - MOV 1 269.67 297.67
## <none> 267.79 297.79
## - FGM 1 270.06 298.06
## - ORBp 1 270.17 298.17
## - ASTp 1 270.19 298.19
## - ORB 1 270.85 298.85
## - ThreePA 1 271.29 299.29
## - eFGp 1 272.68 300.68
## - PTS 1 274.53 302.53
## - eDiff 1 276.36 304.36
## - PossperMin 1 279.49 307.49
## - DRtg 1 284.56 312.56
## - Winp 1 300.50 328.50
## - DSRS 1 303.01 331.01
## - OSRS 1 320.33 348.33
##
## Step: AIC=297.67
## IsEliteEight ~ eFGp + ORBp + ASTp + DRtg + eDiff + PossperMin +
## FGM + ThreePA + ORB + PTS + Winp + OSRS + DSRS
##
## Df Deviance AIC
## <none> 269.67 297.67
## - ORBp 1 272.12 298.12
## - FGM 1 272.35 298.35
## - ASTp 1 272.35 298.35
## - ORB 1 272.63 298.63
## - ThreePA 1 273.38 299.38
## - eFGp 1 273.81 299.81
## - PTS 1 276.70 302.70
## - PossperMin 1 284.92 310.92
## - DRtg 1 285.81 311.81
## - eDiff 1 298.66 324.66
## - Winp 1 300.77 326.77
## - DSRS 1 303.75 329.75
## - OSRS 1 320.38 346.38summary(seasonstatsmodel.glm.back)##
## Call:
## glm(formula = IsEliteEight ~ eFGp + ORBp + ASTp + DRtg + eDiff +
## PossperMin + FGM + ThreePA + ORB + PTS + Winp + OSRS + DSRS,
## family = "binomial", data = seasonstatsmodel.train)
##
## Deviance Residuals:
## Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
## -1.9911 -0.3063 -0.1203 -0.0175 3.1685
##
## Coefficients:
## Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)
## (Intercept) -1.677 5.543 -0.302 0.762280
## eFGp 5.511 2.737 2.013 0.044095 *
## ORBp 3.270 2.104 1.554 0.120244
## ASTp -2.607 1.613 -1.617 0.105946
## DRtg -31.012 8.380 -3.701 0.000215 ***
## eDiff -25.852 5.455 -4.739 2.15e-06 ***
## PossperMin -23.661 6.370 -3.714 0.000204 ***
## FGM 3.089 1.903 1.623 0.104658
## ThreePA 1.958 1.027 1.906 0.056686 .
## ORB 3.902 2.295 1.700 0.089111 .
## PTS 10.301 3.974 2.592 0.009529 **
## Winp 8.405 1.623 5.178 2.25e-07 ***
## OSRS 19.016 3.360 5.660 1.51e-08 ***
## DSRS 13.246 2.663 4.974 6.56e-07 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
##
## Null deviance: 509.44 on 668 degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 269.67 on 655 degrees of freedom
## AIC: 297.67
##
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 8dim(seasonstatsmodel.glm.back)## NULLsum.back <- summary(seasonstatsmodel.glm.back)
dim(sum.back$coefficients)## [1] 14 4AIC(seasonstatsmodel.glm.back)## [1] 297.672pred.glm3.train <- predict(seasonstatsmodel.glm.back, type = "response")
pred.glm3.valid <- predict(seasonstatsmodel.glm.back, newdata = seasonstatsmodel.valid, type = "response")
confusionMatrix(as.factor(ifelse(pred.glm3.train >= optimal.pcut.glm, "1", "0")), as.factor(seasonstatsmodel.train$IsEliteEight),
positive = "1")## Confusion Matrix and Statistics
##
## Reference
## Prediction 0 1
## 0 271 1
## 1 313 84
##
## Accuracy : 0.5306
## 95% CI : (0.492, 0.569)
## No Information Rate : 0.8729
## P-Value [Acc > NIR] : 1
##
## Kappa : 0.1761
##
## Mcnemar's Test P-Value : <2e-16
##
## Sensitivity : 0.9882
## Specificity : 0.4640
## Pos Pred Value : 0.2116
## Neg Pred Value : 0.9963
## Prevalence : 0.1271
## Detection Rate : 0.1256
## Detection Prevalence : 0.5934
## Balanced Accuracy : 0.7261
##
## 'Positive' Class : 1
## #Perform stepwise regression - best model (Same as forward)
seasonstatsmodel.glm.step <- step(seasonstatsmodel.glm.null, scope = list(seasonstatsmodel.glm.null, upper = seasonstatsmodel.glm),
direction = "both")## Start: AIC=511.44
## IsEliteEight ~ 1
##
## Df Deviance AIC
## + Winp 1 390.59 394.59
## + MOV 1 406.23 410.23
## + SOS 1 427.63 431.63
## + OSRS 1 435.25 439.25
## + eDiff 1 435.91 439.91
## + IsPowerSix 1 449.26 453.26
## + FICFourty 1 454.33 458.33
## + DSRS 1 457.69 461.69
## + DRtg 1 478.56 482.56
## + FGM 1 479.94 483.94
## + PTS 1 480.73 484.73
## + ORBp 1 490.51 494.51
## + ORtg 1 491.53 495.53
## + BLKp 1 491.57 495.57
## + BLK 1 492.17 496.17
## + FGA 1 494.01 498.01
## + FGp 1 494.57 498.57
## + eFGp 1 497.05 501.05
## + ORB 1 498.29 502.29
## + TOVp 1 498.93 502.93
## + AST 1 500.10 504.10
## + ThreePp 1 502.43 506.43
## + TSp 1 504.13 508.13
## + DRB 1 505.16 509.16
## + PF 1 505.32 509.32
## + Pace 1 506.18 510.18
## + PossperMin 1 506.28 510.28
## + PPS 1 506.62 510.62
## + STL 1 506.84 510.84
## + STLp 1 507.19 511.19
## <none> 509.44 511.44
## + TOV 1 508.00 512.00
## + ThreePM 1 508.42 512.42
## + DRBp 1 508.96 512.96
## + ThreePA 1 509.13 513.13
## + FTp 1 509.19 513.19
## + FTA 1 509.21 513.21
## + FTM 1 509.28 513.28
## + ASTp 1 509.41 513.41
##
## Step: AIC=394.59
## IsEliteEight ~ Winp
##
## Df Deviance AIC
## + SOS 1 295.10 301.10
## + IsPowerSix 1 321.07 327.07
## + OSRS 1 357.10 363.10
## + DSRS 1 376.56 382.56
## + FGA 1 382.49 388.49
## + ORB 1 383.35 389.35
## + FICFourty 1 384.91 390.91
## + FGM 1 384.93 390.93
## + BLK 1 385.79 391.79
## + MOV 1 385.80 391.80
## + ORBp 1 385.92 391.92
## + PTS 1 386.15 392.15
## + BLKp 1 386.68 392.68
## + Pace 1 386.79 392.79
## + PossperMin 1 386.82 392.82
## + DRBp 1 388.43 394.43
## <none> 390.59 394.59
## + ASTp 1 388.84 394.84
## + PPS 1 389.08 395.08
## + TSp 1 389.47 395.47
## + DRB 1 389.60 395.60
## + TOVp 1 389.74 395.74
## + FGp 1 390.09 396.09
## + FTp 1 390.25 396.25
## + eFGp 1 390.37 396.37
## + STL 1 390.38 396.38
## + AST 1 390.40 396.40
## + ThreePp 1 390.47 396.47
## + DRtg 1 390.49 396.49
## + TOV 1 390.53 396.53
## + FTA 1 390.53 396.53
## + eDiff 1 390.56 396.56
## + FTM 1 390.57 396.57
## + ORtg 1 390.58 396.58
## + STLp 1 390.58 396.58
## + ThreePA 1 390.58 396.58
## + ThreePM 1 390.59 396.59
## + PF 1 390.59 396.59
## - Winp 1 509.44 511.44
##
## Step: AIC=301.1
## IsEliteEight ~ Winp + SOS
##
## Df Deviance AIC
## + ORB 1 289.40 297.40
## + ORBp 1 291.21 299.21
## + FTp 1 292.78 300.78
## <none> 295.10 301.10
## + TOVp 1 293.35 301.35
## + DRtg 1 293.57 301.57
## + DRBp 1 293.90 301.90
## + MOV 1 294.19 302.19
## + TOV 1 294.23 302.23
## + STLp 1 294.26 302.26
## + IsPowerSix 1 294.29 302.29
## + FGM 1 294.29 302.29
## + FGp 1 294.32 302.32
## + PPS 1 294.44 302.44
## + OSRS 1 294.50 302.50
## + TSp 1 294.52 302.52
## + eDiff 1 294.60 302.60
## + ASTp 1 294.64 302.64
## + FTM 1 294.70 302.70
## + FGA 1 294.71 302.71
## + ORtg 1 294.79 302.79
## + PTS 1 294.79 302.79
## + BLK 1 294.80 302.80
## + STL 1 294.97 302.97
## + eFGp 1 294.97 302.97
## + ThreePp 1 294.97 302.97
## + DRB 1 294.99 302.99
## + Pace 1 294.99 302.99
## + PossperMin 1 295.00 303.00
## + PF 1 295.01 303.01
## + BLKp 1 295.04 303.04
## + DSRS 1 295.05 303.05
## + AST 1 295.05 303.05
## + FICFourty 1 295.08 303.08
## + ThreePA 1 295.09 303.09
## + ThreePM 1 295.10 303.10
## + FTA 1 295.10 303.10
## - SOS 1 390.59 394.59
## - Winp 1 427.63 431.63
##
## Step: AIC=297.4
## IsEliteEight ~ Winp + SOS + ORB
##
## Df Deviance AIC
## <none> 289.40 297.40
## + DRtg 1 287.67 297.67
## + FTM 1 287.78 297.78
## + FTp 1 288.06 298.06
## + FGp 1 288.26 298.26
## + DRB 1 288.38 298.38
## + ORtg 1 288.40 298.40
## + FTA 1 288.74 298.74
## + ASTp 1 288.75 298.75
## + TOVp 1 288.84 298.84
## + IsPowerSix 1 288.90 298.90
## + MOV 1 288.91 298.91
## + ThreePM 1 288.94 298.94
## + ThreePp 1 288.94 298.94
## + FICFourty 1 288.96 298.96
## + DRBp 1 288.97 298.97
## + FGM 1 289.00 299.00
## + ThreePA 1 289.01 299.01
## + eFGp 1 289.23 299.23
## + PPS 1 289.23 299.23
## + STLp 1 289.24 299.24
## + PF 1 289.31 299.31
## + eDiff 1 289.33 299.33
## + ORBp 1 289.33 299.33
## + OSRS 1 289.34 299.34
## + DSRS 1 289.35 299.35
## + TOV 1 289.36 299.36
## + BLK 1 289.36 299.36
## + PTS 1 289.36 299.36
## + TSp 1 289.37 299.37
## + Pace 1 289.37 299.37
## + PossperMin 1 289.38 299.38
## + BLKp 1 289.38 299.38
## + AST 1 289.39 299.39
## + STL 1 289.39 299.39
## + FGA 1 289.40 299.40
## - ORB 1 295.10 301.10
## - SOS 1 383.35 389.35
## - Winp 1 416.64 422.64summary(seasonstatsmodel.glm.step)##
## Call:
## glm(formula = IsEliteEight ~ Winp + SOS + ORB, family = "binomial",
## data = seasonstatsmodel.train)
##
## Deviance Residuals:
## Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
## -1.9169 -0.3367 -0.1541 -0.0242 3.1765
##
## Coefficients:
## Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)
## (Intercept) -16.8206 1.7991 -9.350 < 2e-16 ***
## Winp 8.7272 0.9705 8.993 < 2e-16 ***
## SOS 11.5636 1.7116 6.756 1.42e-11 ***
## ORB 3.0045 1.2632 2.379 0.0174 *
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
##
## Null deviance: 509.44 on 668 degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 289.40 on 665 degrees of freedom
## AIC: 297.4
##
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 7sum.step <- summary(seasonstatsmodel.glm.step)
dim(sum.step$coefficients)## [1] 4 4AIC(seasonstatsmodel.glm.step)## [1] 297.3989pred.glm4.train <- predict(seasonstatsmodel.glm.step, type = "response")
pred.glm4.valid <- predict(seasonstatsmodel.glm.step, newdata = seasonstatsmodel.valid, type = "response")
confusionMatrix(as.factor(ifelse(pred.glm4.train >= optimal.pcut.glm, "1", "0")), as.factor(seasonstatsmodel.train$IsEliteEight),
positive = "1")## Confusion Matrix and Statistics
##
## Reference
## Prediction 0 1
## 0 229 1
## 1 355 84
##
## Accuracy : 0.4679
## 95% CI : (0.4295, 0.5065)
## No Information Rate : 0.8729
## P-Value [Acc > NIR] : 1
##
## Kappa : 0.1369
##
## Mcnemar's Test P-Value : <2e-16
##
## Sensitivity : 0.9882
## Specificity : 0.3921
## Pos Pred Value : 0.1913
## Neg Pred Value : 0.9957
## Prevalence : 0.1271
## Detection Rate : 0.1256
## Detection Prevalence : 0.6562
## Balanced Accuracy : 0.6902
##
## 'Positive' Class : 1
## Set-up data for largetree
# partition the data for CART
set.seed(1)
train.index <- sample(nrow(seasonstatsmodel), nrow(seasonstatsmodel) * 0.6)
seasonstatsmodel.train <- seasonstatsmodel[train.index, ]
seasonstatsmodel.valid <- seasonstatsmodel[-train.index, ]
#Ploting a largetree
library(rpart.plot)## Warning: package 'rpart.plot' was built under R version 3.6.3## Loading required package: rpartseasonstatsmodel.largetree <- rpart(IsEliteEight ~ ., data = seasonstatsmodel.train, cp = 0.0001, method = "class")
prp(seasonstatsmodel.largetree, digits = 4, type = 1, extra = 1, varlen = -10,
box.col = ifelse(seasonstatsmodel.largetree$frame$var == "<leaf>", 'gray', 'white'))
plotcp(seasonstatsmodel.largetree)
printcp(seasonstatsmodel.largetree)##
## Classification tree:
## rpart(formula = IsEliteEight ~ ., data = seasonstatsmodel.train,
## method = "class", cp = 1e-04)
##
## Variables actually used in tree construction:
## [1] BLKp MOV PossperMin SOS Winp
##
## Root node error: 79/669 = 0.11809
##
## n= 669
##
## CP nsplit rel error xerror xstd
## 1 0.126582 0 1.00000 1.00000 0.105657
## 2 0.101266 1 0.87342 1.01266 0.106234
## 3 0.084388 2 0.77215 0.96203 0.103895
## 4 0.050633 5 0.51899 0.70886 0.090674
## 5 0.000100 6 0.46835 0.73418 0.092129#Pruning
seasonstatsmodel.pruned <- prune(seasonstatsmodel.largetree, cp = 0.000100)
seasonstatsmodel.pruned## n= 669
##
## node), split, n, loss, yval, (yprob)
## * denotes terminal node
##
## 1) root 669 79 0 (0.88191330 0.11808670)
## 2) MOV< 0.6858309 629 54 0 (0.91414944 0.08585056)
## 4) SOS< 0.8138402 456 9 0 (0.98026316 0.01973684) *
## 5) SOS>=0.8138402 173 45 0 (0.73988439 0.26011561)
## 10) Winp< 0.4817053 107 7 0 (0.93457944 0.06542056) *
## 11) Winp>=0.4817053 66 28 1 (0.42424242 0.57575758)
## 22) BLKp< 0.3651079 38 14 0 (0.63157895 0.36842105)
## 44) PossperMin>=0.5947503 28 7 0 (0.75000000 0.25000000) *
## 45) PossperMin< 0.5947503 10 3 1 (0.30000000 0.70000000) *
## 23) BLKp>=0.3651079 28 4 1 (0.14285714 0.85714286) *
## 3) MOV>=0.6858309 40 15 1 (0.37500000 0.62500000)
## 6) SOS< 0.6516569 10 1 0 (0.90000000 0.10000000) *
## 7) SOS>=0.6516569 30 6 1 (0.20000000 0.80000000) *prp(seasonstatsmodel.pruned, digits = 4, type = 1, extra = 1, varlen = -10,
box.col = ifelse(seasonstatsmodel.pruned$frame$var == "<leaf>", 'gray', 'white'))
#confusion Matrix
library(caret)
library(e1071)
seasonstatsmodel.ct0 <- rpart(IsEliteEight ~ ., data = seasonstatsmodel.train, method = "class")
pred0 <- predict(seasonstatsmodel.ct0, type = "class")
confusionMatrix(pred0, as.factor(seasonstatsmodel.train$IsEliteEight), positive = "1")## Confusion Matrix and Statistics
##
## Reference
## Prediction 0 1
## 0 577 24
## 1 13 55
##
## Accuracy : 0.9447
## 95% CI : (0.9246, 0.9608)
## No Information Rate : 0.8819
## P-Value [Acc > NIR] : 2.424e-08
##
## Kappa : 0.7174
##
## Mcnemar's Test P-Value : 0.1002
##
## Sensitivity : 0.69620
## Specificity : 0.97797
## Pos Pred Value : 0.80882
## Neg Pred Value : 0.96007
## Prevalence : 0.11809
## Detection Rate : 0.08221
## Detection Prevalence : 0.10164
## Balanced Accuracy : 0.83708
##
## 'Positive' Class : 1
## KNN Analysis (Clustering similar results to predict successful tournament teams vs others)
Validation with top 8 teams according to logistic regression - 7 of 8 teams in logistic model also
predicted to make Elite 8 using KNN (strong sign for validation purposes, with only team not being predicted
being OSU)