There is a large divergence between CDC/NCHS “excess deaths” to the headline daily reported deaths. Headline deaths - COVID Tracking Project (Atlantic Monthly), NY Times, John Hopkins University - seemed to have been derived from cases, but now cases have dropped significantly. It is a mystery as to where the headline death data is sourced.

Hospitalization data from HHS is limited, only started to publish but it is current aggregate US hospital capacity. From the beginning of the data in early December 2020, there are no signs of any unusual pressure from Covid on hospitalizations. ICU Covid occupied is dropping quickly. Inpatient hospital beds Covid occupied are dropping and the early Jan peak Covid occupied never exceeded 18%.

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The COVID Tracking Project currently-hospitalized data and the state reported currently-hospitalized are now strangely the same. Neither data series is in synch with CDC COVID-NET daily Covid admitted data using the agreed consensus severity of Covid hospitalized having a mean of 5 days “Length of Stay” (LoS). The difference indicates headline Covid currently hospitalized is overstated by at least 100% of actual.

The COVID-NET is the way the CDC monitors Covid capacity pressures and is statitically relevant.

The COVID Tracking Project currently hospitalized and/or the state reported currently hospitalized to HHS are clearly derived directly from cases and not actual.

The COVID Tracking Project implied severity of cases currently hospitalized is a CHR of 60%
Consensus infection hospitalization rate (IHR) is 4%. The LoS (lenght of stay) hospitalized would have to be 60/4, or 15 days to calibrate to the COVID Tracking Project 60% CHR. Consensus severity for IHR LoS is 5 days. Reported currently hospitalized by the state and by COVID Tracking Project is 3 times to 4 times over stated.

Headline deaths (CTP,JHU and NYT) are grossly over-reported when compared to excess deaths (CDC/NCHS) and state reported deaths. Until the end of Jan 2021 headline deaths were the implied deaths from cases (JHU) assuming a 1.2% case fatality rate (CFR). From end of January 2021 to date, the headlone deaths seems fabricated.

Excess deaths turned down from 2nd to 3rd week of December. This implies the third and likely the final phase of US Covid occurred a month plus prior to headlines. The third phase was 3/4 of the size of the first phase of March to May 2020.

Since normalized daily deaths using excess deaths peaked at 4 and turned down, and with 4 sigma or 95% of the daily deaths levels to date - the epidemic is likely over.

Hospitalization has been the leading and most closely followed indication of the status of the epidemic. Using severity consensus,currently hospitalized from excess deaths(CDC/NCHS) disaggregated from weeky to daily (last published date 2021-02-09) and derived from headline reported deaths (Using a infection fatality rate of 0.5%, Infection Hospitalization Rate of 3.9% and hospitalized Length of Stay (LoS)of 5 days), hospitalizations reported by COVID Tracking Project, and CDC hospital admissions survey COVID-NET. The data does not synch and indicates that actual hospitalization is dropping while the Covid infection peaks.

Headline hospitalizations from the COVID Tracking Projest are overstated if not fallacious which raises concern for the veracity of the reported headline deaths data.

SIR models Using CDC/NCHS excess deaths and headline daily deaths (JHu) to derive active “Infections” and thereby “Susceptible” and “Resolved”.

The R(0) is given from both death series.

The general perception of how Covid 19 has progressed is not reality as the epidemic reality. The epidemic was fierce in March to April then having two phases, first in August as F_lorida and A_rizona peaked, then in November to January as the Upper Midwest, Eastern Rockies, and now concluding with Cal_ifornia.

A 40% sUSceptible is used to build the SIR models.

Using the Smith/Dietz Herd Immunity Threshold formula where herd immunity is derived from R():

HI = 1- (1/R())

The “forward R()” is derived, that level of R() which will not increase the epidemic given the current percentage of the populace infected.