3/11/2021

Slide 1: Project Overview

  • As basketball fans we wanted to evaluate how our favorite players impact the game

  • Players that have played a minimum 500 minutes this season in order to provide a reasonable sample size

  • PER, USG%, TS%, 3PAr, and FTar

  • These statistics best evaluate efficiency over volume

Slide 2: Player Efficiency Rating(PER) and Usage Rate(USG%)

Slide 3: PER and USG% Relationship

Slide 4: R Code

ggplot(df, aes(x = USG, y = PER)) + geom_smooth(method = "lm") +
    geom_point(aes(x = USG, y = PER)) +
    geom_point(aes(x = embiid$USG, y = embiid$PER, color = "Embiid"), 
               size = 1.5) +
    geom_point(aes(x = doncic$USG, y = doncic$PER, color = "Doncic"), 
               size = 1.5) +
    geom_point(aes(x = lillard$USG, y = lillard$PER, color = "Lillard"), 
               size = 1.5) +
    geom_point(aes(x = jokic$USG, y = jokic$PER, color = "Jokic"), 
               size = 1.5) +
    geom_point(aes(x = lebron$USG, y = lebron$PER, color = "Lebron"), 
               size = 1.5) +
    labs(x = "Usage Rate(%)",
         y = "Player Efficiecy Rating",
         color = "Legend") +
    scale_color_manual(values = colors) + ggtitle("PER vs USG%")
    + theme(plot.title = element_text(hjust = 0.5))

Slide 5: Data Analysis

-Colors represent MVP candidates

-summary(mod) determines the effectiveness of the data

-r^2 represents how close the data is to the line of best fit

-r^2 = 0.453 which shows a moderate correlation

Slide 6: Win Shares(WS) in relation to PER and USG

Slide 7: Data Analysis

  • Represents 3 different variables

  • Higher the win shares the bigger the circle

  • A higher PER best relates to the amount of Win shares

Slide 8: true Shooting(TS%), Three point attempt rate (3par), Free throw rate(FTr),

Slide 9: 3D Graph of TS, 3PAr, FTr

Slide 10: R Code

relation <- lm(TS ~ THPAr + FTr, data=df)
predicted_TS <- data.frame(ts_pred = predict(relation, df), THPAr=df$THPAr, FTr = df$FTr)
fig <- plot_ly(x=df$THPAr, y=df$FTr, z=df$TS,
               type="scatter3d", 
               mode="markers",
               color = df$TS) %>% hide_colorbar()

Slide 11: Data Analysis

  • Higher True shooting is related to higher 3 point attempt rate
  • Most are bunched around similar free throw attempt rate and 3 point attempt rate
  • Shows how NBA is becoming more homogeneous in shot selection
  • A few data points around very high free throw rates with high true shooting
  • P-value of 4.007e-08 and R^2 of .1204

Slide 12: Conclusion

  • Moderate correlation between volume and efficieny
  • Expected because high volume should theoretically lower efficiency
  • PER typically more valuable in wins
  • 3 point shots lead to greater efficiency
  • NBA is becoming more homogeneous with both shot selection and offensive system