12. Declining bird populations synthesis discussion

Projected bobolink losses at +3C from Audubon put its range entirely outside the US.

Scientific evidence like that explored in this vignette has entered federal litigation over the endangered species act (ESA). Synthethic discussion provide background for the debate next week.

Activities today

• Follow up on ebird example, data analysis and application:

1. What is the role of the function with in this block of code?
2. From specTab find the species code for the yellow-billed cuckoo. I would use the function grep.
3. Does the distribution of data suggest that trends in time could be hard to estimate?
4. Which variables in this GLM appear to be important and why?
5. Examine the main effects and interactions from this analysis to suggest which cover types have experienced the biggest declines.
6. Compare the trends you see in the wood thrush or another species to the projection maps of Audubon and PBGJAM.

• Discussion from maps: Using the BBS data select a species for study, identify where it is increasing or decreasing. Based on your research, speculate on causes for increases or declines. Select four species each for mapping trends. Based on the research discussed today prepare A) a written summary for the individual species you selected, and B) a synthesis of all species selected by the class. For A, your individual summaries will include 1) he spatio-temporal trends (where is it increasing/decreasing?) and 2) possible explanations based on your research. For B, you can enter your individual summaries in a google doc and begin thinking about the synthesis.

• Explanatory pop-ups for pbgjam site. Should we develop StoryMaps?

For next class: Debate prep

Context

The 1973 Endangered Species Act (ESA) was intended “to provide a means to conserve the ecosystems upon which listed species depend, to develop a program for the conservation of listed species, and to achieve the purposes of certain treaties and conventions.” It focused on individual species.

In 2016, the Obama administration ruled that critical habitat for an endangered species could include places where it does not currently occur. In other words, “endangered species” includes conservation of places. These can include areas viewed as essential to the recovery of a species. In these areas, permitting for activities would be closely regulated. These activities include “a direct or indirect alteration that appreciably diminishes the value of critical habitat for the conservation of a listed species.”

By expanding the reach of the ESA, the Obama administration angered some interest groups, resulting in a lawsuit filed by a number of states in 2016. With the change in administration, the litigation was put on hold in 2017, and the Trump administration agreed to revisit this rule. The issue could go to the Supreme Court this year or next. We will debate these issues from the perspectives of environmentalists, land owners, and industry. For next time you will gather background research to defend one of three positions.

Issues to consider

• When does preservation of a species, depend on preservation of habitat?

• When does preservation of habitat impinge on land-owner rights?

• When does the broader interest of society at large outweight individual rights to manage habitat as a land-owner sees fit?

• Is there a difference between ‘local extinction’ and ‘global extinction’?

• Should a critical habitat designation include places where a species does not how occur? Including changes in distribution that could occur with climate change?

Groups will have different interests

• environmentalists

• property-rights advocates (land-owners)

• private industry

Assignment for each group, prepare today in class

• Prepare a one-page outline of research for your interest group, including a bird example, where there is evidence that habitat preservation could be critical for its survival, or not. Your example species does not need to be on the endangered species list, but the circumstances should be relevant to the case. You might consult this database on endangered species.

• Prepare a three-minute position statement.

• Prepare to defend your position based on questions from the other group(s).

• Post a one-page outline and position statement and references.

Example references

• Your research from today’s discussion

• Additional research to develop your group’s position:

• Endangered Species Act (1973)

• USFWS Endangered Species List (current)

• Office of Management and Budget Announcement (2015)

• White House takes up hot-button habitat rule (2015)

• Listing Endangered and Threatened Species and Designating Critical Habitat; Implementing Changes to the Regulations for Designating Critical Habitat. The 2016 amendment to the ESA.

• Feds make key changes to habitat protection rules (2016)

• States drop suit as Trump admin reopens habitat rules (2018)

• Federal Register: Endangered and Threatened Wildlife and Plants; Regulations for Listing Endangered and Threatened Species and Designating Critical Habitat This is the ‘final rule’ (2020)