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Headline deaths as reported by COVID Tracking Project and others (JHU and NYT) seem oversated when compared to excess deaths (CDC/NCHS) and assuming a 1.2% case fatality rate (CFR).

Headline hospitalizations from the COVID Tracking Projest are overtstated if not fallacious

A 40% sCAceptible is used to build the SIR models.

Using the Smith/Dietz Herd Immunity Threshold formula where herd immunity is derived from R():

HI = 1- (1/R())

The “forward R()” is derived, that level of R() which will not increase the epidemic given the current percentage of the populace infected.