There is a large divergence between CDC/NCHS “excess deaths” to the headline daily reported deaths. Headline deaths - COVID Tracking Project (Atlantic Monthly), NY Times, John Hopkins University - seemed to have been derived from cases, but now cases have dropped significantly. It is a mystery as to where the headline death data is sourced. The COVID Tracking Project ceases updating data as of March 7, 2021.

Hospitalization data from HHS is limited, only started to publish in beginning of December but it is a current aggregate of US hospital capacity and usage. From the beginning of the data in early December 2020, there were no signs of any unusual pressure from Covid on hospitalizations. The percentage of US infected never exceeded 2 1/2% of the US populace. Well understood severity from large pools of meta data has 4% of the infected hopsitalized so the percentage of the US hospitalized never exceeded .1% of the US populace. ICU Covid occupied is dropping quickly. Inpatient hospital beds Covid occupied are dropping and the early Jan peak Covid occupied never exceeded 20% and is now at 7%, using HHS data and is at 1% using CDC COVID-NET surveillance data.

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The COVID Tracking Project currently-hospitalized data and the state reported currently-hospitalized are strangely the same. But neither data series is in synch with CDC COVID-NET daily Covid admitted data using the agreed consensus severity of Covid hospitalized having a mean of 5 days “Length of Stay” (LoS). The difference indicates headline Covid currently hospitalized is overstated by at least 200% of actual.

The COVID-NET is the way the CDC monitors Covid capacity pressures and is statistically relevant.

The COVID Tracking Project currently hospitalized and/or the state reported currently hospitalized to HHS are clearly derived directly from cases and not actual.

The COVID Tracking Project implied severity of cases currently hospitalized is a CHR of 60%
Consensus infection hospitalization rate (IHR) is 4%. The LoS (lenght of stay) hospitalized would have to be 60/4, or 15 days to calibrate to the COVID Tracking Project 60% CHR. Consensus severity for IHR LoS is 5 days. Reported currently hospitalized by the state and by COVID Tracking Project is 3 times to 4 times over stated.

Headline deaths (CTP,JHU and NYT) are grossly over-reported when compared to excess deaths (CDC/NCHS) and state reported deaths. Until the end of Jan 2021 headline deaths seemed to be crudely derived from headline cases (JHU and CTP) assuming a 1.2% case fatality rate (CFR). From end of November 2020 to date, the headlone deaths seem to be just derived and not actual.

Excess deaths turned down from 2nd week of December. This implies the third and likely the final phase of US Covid occurred a month plus prior to headlines. The third phase was 3/4 of the size of the first phase of March to May 2020. It is mistake to see Covid in the US as surges but is “just” the rolling out of the epidemic from one geography to another, ending with California. In all geographies 30% to 40% of the populace become infected with majority asymptomatic. This is not to dismiss that for the obese, diabetic and the elderly, Covid 19 is a devastating disease.

Since normalized daily deaths using excess deaths peaked at 4 standard deviations of prior deaths and turned downwards when the 4 sigma, or 95% of the prior death distribution, indicating a stochastic process - the epidemic is likely over.

Hospitalization has been the leading and most closely followed indication of the status of the epidemic. Using severity consensus,currently hospitalized from excess deaths(CDC/NCHS) disaggregated from weeky to daily (last published date 2021-02-10) and derived from headline reported deaths(using an infection fatality rate of 0.5%, an infection hospitalization rate of 3.9% and hospitalized length of stay (LoS) of 5 days, hospitalizations reported by COVID Tracking Project, and CDC hospital admissions survey COVID-NET are given below. The data does not synch and indicates that actual hospitalization are much lower and started to fall in December. The COVID Tracking Project data is risible.

Headline hospitalizations from the COVID Tracking Projest are overstated if not fallacious which raises concern for the veracity of the reported headline deaths data.

SIR models using CDC/NCHS excess deaths and headline daily deaths (JHU), deriving active “Infections” and thereby “Susceptible” and “Resolved”.The seed or start of susceptible is deemd to be 40% of the US population. This will be adjusted if it is found to be more so, as it was in New York, but provides, for anow, a useful mapping of the progress of the epidemic acorss the US.

The R(0) is given from both death series, derived from the SIR models.

The general perception/media of how Covid 19 has progressed through the US is not the epidemic reality. The epidemic was fierce in March to April then had two phases, first in August, as Florida and then Arizona peaked, then in November to January as the Upper Midwest, Eastern Rockies, and now concluding with California.

Using the well known and accepted Smith/Dietz Herd Immunity Threshold formula, herd immunity is derived from R():

HI = 1- (1/R())

The “forward R()” is derived which is that level of R() which will not increase the epidemic given the current percentage of the populace infected.