No Room on the Train

No Room on the Train

  • Rely on more than a "feeling."

  • Put numbers behind the notion.

The Landscape

The Landscape


Jersey City Population Growth: "Jersey City will be the largest city in New Jersey by the end of 2016" - Mayor Fulop

The Situation

  • Major renovations are coming down the pipe for the PATH train

The Situation

  • Major renovations are coming down the pipe for the PATH train
  • Expansion to Newark Airport

The Situation

  • Major renovations are coming down the pipe for the PATH train
  • Expansion to Newark Airport
  • Port Authority plans to expand ridership capacity by 20% by 2017

The Goal

Given turnstile data in 15 minute blocks, determine when and where build-ups occur.

Challenges:

  • 15 minute blocks (several trains per block)
  • No tracking of individuals (no swipe-in/swipe-out)
  • Transfers

Visualizing rush hour

Where are the passengers going?

Where are the passengers going?

Method

Assumptions and Data Preparation

To get the passenger flux, I decided of some limitations:

  • Nobody is going from 33rd St. to WTC (or the other way) by the PATH

Assumptions and Data Preparation

To get the passenger flux, I decided of some limitations:

  • Nobody is going from 33rd St. to WTC (or the other way) by the PATH
  • Nobody is taking the PATH to go from 33rd St. to another stop on the yellow line in Manhattan apart for Christopher st.

Assumptions and Data Preparation

To get the passenger flux, I decided of some limitations:

  • Nobody is going from 33rd St. to WTC (or the other way) by the PATH
  • Nobody is taking the PATH to go from 33rd St. to another stop on the yellow line in Manhattan apart for Christopher st.
  • People that change from red line to yellow line do so at JS; not at Grove
  • Kept only the weekday data

Assumptions and Data Preparation

To get the passenger flux, I decided of some limitations:

  • Nobody is going from 33rd St. to WTC (or the other way) by the PATH
  • Nobody is taking the PATH to go from 33rd St. to another stop on the yellow line in Manhattan apart for Christopher st.
  • People that change from red line to yellow line do so at JS; not at Grove
  • Kept only the weekday data
  • Averaged the number of entry and exit in each station accross the week.

First: gathering all the possible exit for each entry

For example one passenger arrived at a station at 9 am:

  • Find all the trains stoping in this station between 9 and 9:30.

First: gathering all the possible exit for each entry

For example one passenger arrived at a station at 9 am:

  • Find all the trains stoping in this station between 9 and 9:30.
  • Find all the possible exits for all these trains.

Gathering all the possible exit for each entry

For example one passenger arrived at Newport at 9 am:

  • Find all the trains stoping at Newport between 9 am (time of the entry) to 9:30am (+ 30 min).
  • Find all the possible exits for all these trains.
  • Account for the possibilities of a transfer.

Example at Newport

A passenger enters at the Newport station

  • Take the JS -> 33rd St. line
  • Take the 33rd St -> JS line
    • Change to the WTC -> Newark
  • Take the Hoboken -> WTC line
  • Take the WTC -> Hoboken

Reverse engineering: where passengers come from.

For each exit:

  • Look at all the possible entry (from the previous step)

Reverse engineering: where passengers come from.

For each exit:

  • Look at all the possible entry (from the previous step)
  • Assign passenger to each possible entry stations in proportion of the number of passenger in these entry station

Example at Journal Square

100 passenger exit the JS station

  • Come from 33rd St -> JS line
  • Come from WTC -> Newark
  • Come from Newark -> WTC
  • Come from Hoboken -> WTC line via Newport

'Orphan' passengers

  • After that, most passenger are assigned to a train.
  • Some passenger have only entry or exit

'Orphan' passengers

'Orphan' passengers

'Orphan' passengers

  • These passengers seems to be an anomaly in the data

'Orphan' passengers

  • These passengers seems to be an anomaly in the data
  • It would be important to explain this problem

'Orphan' passengers

  • These passengers seems to be an anomaly in the data
  • It would be important to explain this problem

  • We added to train:
    • taking the time an station they were entering/leaving
    • in proportion to were assigned passengers are going/coming from

Summary

  • Inputs:
    • train schedule
    • turnstile data
    • likely rider behavior

Visualization

  • Goals for visualization:
    • station level
    • system level

Flux Visualization

System Visualization

System Visualization

Conclusion

  • Method to estimate ridership behavior from 15 min bins
  • Wireframe visualization of station-specific and system-wide congestion