There is now a large divergence between CDC/NCHS “excess deaths” to the headline daily reported deaths. Headline deaths - COVID Tracking Project (Atlantic Monthly), NY Times, John Hopkins University - seemed to be now derived from cases but now cases have dropped significantly. It is a mystery as to where COVID Tracking Project get their daily deaths data. Of late large sporadic deaths are being reported that are surging excess deaths.

Iowa data is suspect.

Hospitalization data from HHS is limited, only started to publish aggregate IA hospital capacity. From the beginning of the data in early December 2020, there are no signs of any unusual pressure from Covid on hopsitalizations. ICU Covid occupied is dropping quickly. Inpatient hopsital beds Covid occupied are dropping and the early Jan peak Covid occupied never exceeded 1/3.

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The Covid currently hospitalized COVID Tracking Project data and the state reported currently hospitalized are one and the same. And Iowa is one of the few states where state reported, COVID Tracking Project, and COVID-NET hospitalizations are in synch.

In almost all other states COVID Tracking Project and state reported datas overstates hopsitalizations by 100% to 1000%.

The COVID-NET is the way the CDC monitors Covid capacity pressures and is statitically relevant.

The state reported, COVand ID Tracking Project hospitalizations seems to calibrate to a case hospitalization rate (CHR) of 60% with hospitalization occurring at the time of the positive results.

Since consensus severity is that less than 4% of newly infected are hopsitalizaed then that implies that the Iowa testing discovers 4%/60% of actual new infections, or about 7% of the actual new infections.

Headline deaths as reported by COVID Tracking Project and others (JHU and NYT) seem grossly over-reported when compared to excess deaths (CDC/NCHS) and assuming a 1.2% case fatality rate (CFR) until recently.

Recently large bursts of deaths are being reported which are not in synch with hopsital inpatient Covid occupied.

Hospitalization has been the leading and most closely followed indication of the status of the epidemic. Using severity consensus,currently hospitalized from excess deaths(CDC/NCHS) disaggregated from weeky to daily (last published date 2021-01-21) and derived from headline reported deaths (Using a infection fatality rate of 0.5%, Infection Hospitalization Rate of 3.9% and hospitalized Length of Stay (LoS)of 5 days), hospitalizations reported by COVID Tracking Project, and CDC hospital admissions survey COVID-NET. The data does not synch and indicates that actual hospitalization is dropping while the Covid infection peaks.

Headline hospitalizations from the COVID Tracking Projest are overtstated if not fallacious which raises concern for the veractiy of the reported headline deaths data.

SIR models Using CDC/NCHS excess deaths and headline daily deaths (JHu) to derive active “Infections” and thereby “Susceptible” and “Resolved”.

The R(0) is given from both death series.

The general perception of how Covid 19 has progressed is not reality as the epidemic reality. The epidemic was fierce in March to April then having two phases, first in August as F_lorida and A_rizona peaked, then in November to January as the Upper Midwest, Eastern Rockies, and now concluding with Cal_ifornia.

A 40% sIAceptible is used to build the SIR models.

Using the Smith/Dietz Herd Immunity Threshold formula where herd immunity is derived from R():

HI = 1- (1/R())

The “forward R()” is derived, that level of R() which will not increase the epidemic given the current percentage of the populace infected.

Iowa is mapped against Swe_den. Swe_den is the ‘base case’ where there is only mitigation and no suppression such as quarantine or lock-downs. Given the relentless infectiousness of Covid 19 and while treatment is improving there is still no cure; it is thought all countries will replicate Sweden statIA, especIAlly deaths to percentage infected - that supression only serves to paIAe this process. Of course this does not consider a vaccine.

The cumulative integral, f(x) of normalized daily deaths to percentage of the population that have been infected seeks to summarize the current status ofIowa.
It is assumed thatIowa is the ‘base case’ and without suppression all countries will to various degrees replicate the Swedish case.
Of concern is how low the cumulative f(x) Using excess deaths is currently.