More monsoon rains forecast amid worries of history repeating itself as Kerala was hit by the worst floods ever last year, affecting millions. The Independent

Just within the last year, catastrophic wildfires in Australia (December 2020) and then California have highlighted connections between climate change and extreme events. The big questions now concern where these trends will lead.

From last time

Last time we considered the following questions:

  1. How are slow changes linked to extreme events like floods and blizzards.
  2. Can we anticipate extreme events? If not, why not?
  3. There has been substantial discussion in the media on whether or not a given event is “caused by global warming”. Is this a question worth asking? Why or why not?

A few resources suggested by me included these links:

The Guardian on Exxon. Their science predicted warming, their outreach said not.

Science: Exxon knew. Shows the projections and summarizes legal and political actions.

The Drought Monitor. National maps are updated weekly to monthly, integrating many sources of information. From the National Drought Mitigation Center.

Climate Central translates scientific findings for a general audience. Look through their “climate shift index”.

Effects of Drought on Forests and Rangelands in the United States: A Comprehensive Science Synthesis. An interagency synthesis of the effects happening now and where they are taking us.

Extreme weather and climate change, includes economic impacts of climate change, with a section on extreme events.

For today

Report preparation

Today we’ll do two things. First, we’ll meet in groups to synthesize your research on extreme events. Your summaries are now on Sakai. Confirm who’s coordinator and work together to merge your results into a report of no more than two pages (or, perhaps, three). Recall, include i) how global warming contributes to extreme climate events, and ii) how public opinion has been influenced by increasing extreme events. Include at least two scientific articles, with citations. Include with these summaries definitions for the terms weather and climate. Use some of this time for writing. This will take most of the class. Include references as citations and/or web links. You can turn it in before next class.

Second, we’ll choose sides for the debate on NY vs. Big Oil and discuss the strategy for position statements, see below.

Debate preparation for when corporations are responsible

Context

The 1998 settlement with tobacco companies concerned some of the same issues that arise in the recent litigation alleging responsibility of oil companies for climate change. In the case of tobacco, billions were spent to disprove research showing the links between smoking and cancer. Moreover, one could argue that the decision to smoke was made by the customer, not the producer of tobacco products. Eventually companies agreed to reimburse Medicare costs from smokers to the tune of 200 billion.

In the case of oil companies, billions have been spent to convince the public that the science behind human-caused climate change is either wrong or inconclusive, this despite the knowledge of their own scientists. Like the tobacco situation, customers make the decision to burn fossil fuels in their cars and to purchase products that require fossil-fuel energy. Also like tobacco, cities and states will bear the costs of health effects, sea-level rise, and damages from extreme events.

The defense includes the notion that regulating dangerous emissions is the role of the policy-makers, not the courts.

Learning goals

  • Critical evaluation of evidence from multiple sources
  • Synthesize scientific literature to build an argument
  • Articulate a position based on scientific evidence

Issues to consider

  • How does the type and degree of the risks influence whether or not a corporation should be held accountable?
  • Tobacco use affects personal health of each individual smoker, climate change potentially affects everyone, even those who might not wish to participate in fossil fuel consumption (e.g., those who would advocate for clean energy options)
  • If risks are scientifically sound, and the courts defer to policy makers, then what new policy is needed, and who is responsible for developing it?

Groups will have different interests

  • Scientific evidence, as from a climate scientist
  • Big oil that profits from fossil fuels
  • States and municipalities that bear the costs of medical treatment, sea-level rise, extreme weather events.

Assignment for each group

  • Prepare a one-page outline of your research.
  • Prepare a 10-minute position statement (important: anticipate the counter-position).
  • Prepare to defend your position based on questions from the other two groups.

References

  • Your background research from the previous discussion

  • Additional research to develop your group’s position

  • Hsiang, S. et al. 2017. Estimating economic damage from climate change in the United States. Science 356: 1362-1369.

  • Bloomberg news and other media outlets.

  • The Guardian on Exxon. Their science predicted warming, their outreach said not.

  • Science: Exxon knew. Shows the projections and summarizes legal and political actions.