NFL Picks
This is an analysis of the history of NFL picks between my dad and I. We have been picking winners for every regular season NFL game since 2011. We’ve also picked over/under for every team’s win totals every pre-season.
Picks Overview
This chart shows our winning percentage over the years. Looks like 2015 was a particularly difficult year.
| Year | Mat’s Win % | Dad’s Win % |
|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 0.656 | 0.672 |
| 2013 | 0.662 | 0.623 |
| 2014 | 0.686 | 0.631 |
| 2015 | 0.590 | 0.594 |
| 2016 | 0.602 | 0.645 |
| 2017 | 0.711 | 0.660 |
| 2018 | 0.621 | 0.652 |
| 2019 | 0.662 | 0.611 |
| 2020 | 0.678 | 0.682 |
| 2021 | 0.649 | 0.656 |
| 2022 | 0.656 | 0.689 |
Taking all years into account, this is the win percentages by week. We both have done exceedingly poorly in Week 10 throughout the years. No idea why.
| Week | Mat’s Win % | Dad’s Win % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.620 | 0.626 |
| 2 | 0.638 | 0.622 |
| 3 | 0.617 | 0.607 |
| 4 | 0.604 | 0.599 |
| 5 | 0.701 | 0.661 |
| 8 | 0.731 | 0.679 |
| 9 | 0.633 | 0.639 |
| 10 | 0.555 | 0.516 |
| 11 | 0.613 | 0.665 |
| 12 | 0.701 | 0.737 |
| 13 | 0.623 | 0.629 |
| 14 | 0.655 | 0.708 |
| 15 | 0.699 | 0.670 |
| 16 | 0.631 | 0.653 |
| 17 | 0.730 | 0.719 |
| 18 | 0.719 | 0.688 |
Looking at each year individually, we can pick out the years where we started out fast and faded (me in 2020) as well as the bad starts (my dad in 2015).
This chart shows the win combinations for every week we’ve done picks. The orange marks show the higher-density combinations (e.g., 10-9 and 11-10) while the blue marks are the less-frequent combinations (e.g., 14-8 and 9-4). The diagonal line equates a tie, so you can tell where the weekly wins for my dad and I typically come from.
Team Picks
The scatterplots below show the the amount of times each of us have
picked each team, and how well we did in picking (and not picking) them.
We both have done a great job not picking the Browns while our faith in
the Eagles over the years has not been
rewarded.
Over/Unders
Before the season starts, we pick over or under for each team’s projected win totals. For teams we agree on, we move the line and take turns electing whether to stick with the pick or change it. The chart below shows the tally for each season, with the bar that crosses the line belonging to that season’s winner.
We also take a look at how we would have done with our original Over/Under picks.
| Year | Mat (vs) | Mat (Actual) | Dad (vs) | Dad (Actual) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 17.0 | 20.0 | 15.0 | 18.0 |
| 2014 | 16.5 | 21.5 | 15.5 | 21.5 |
| 2015 | 13.0 | 15.0 | 19.0 | 20.0 |
| 2016 | 16.0 | 12.0 | 16.0 | 18.0 |
| 2017 | 17.0 | 13.0 | 15.0 | 13.0 |
| 2018 | 11.5 | 14.0 | 20.5 | 19.0 |
| 2019 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 12.0 | 16.0 |
| 2020 | 14.0 | 19.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 |
| 2021 | 17.5 | 18.0 | 14.5 | 16.0 |
| 2022 | 16.0 | 21.0 | 16.0 | 18.0 |
This is a running tally of the proportion of overs taken each season.
| Year | Mat | Dad |
|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 21 | 11 |
| 2014 | 19 | 13 |
| 2015 | 13 | 19 |
| 2016 | 16 | 16 |
| 2017 | 21 | 11 |
| 2018 | 10 | 22 |
| 2019 | 18 | 14 |
| 2020 | 15 | 17 |
| 2021 | 16 | 16 |
| 2022 | 15 | 17 |
Cardinals Games
Who has a better record of picking Cardinals games over the years?
| Year | Mat | Dad |
|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 0.563 | 0.500 |
| 2012 | 0.500 | 0.800 |
| 2013 | 0.688 | 0.875 |
| 2014 | 0.750 | 0.688 |
| 2015 | 0.813 | 0.688 |
| 2016 | 0.406 | 0.531 |
| 2017 | 0.688 | 0.750 |
| 2018 | 0.563 | 0.563 |
| 2019 | 0.656 | 0.656 |
| 2020 | 0.500 | 0.563 |
| 2021 | 0.353 | 0.412 |
| 2022 | 0.706 | 0.824 |