Elections - MTurk Label and predictive power in vote-share (Todorov et.al. 2005 fig. 13)

Correlation Plots

I begin with simple correlation plots between vote-share and the respective MTurk label value. This is to see whether we can replicate (or even begin to see a similar relationship) figure 1(b) in the Todorov et.al (2005) paper. For competence I also plot the difference in vote-share (for a more exact comparison).

There is pretty clearly no relationship in our sample

Density Plots

Since these MTurk labels are statistically insignificant (on adjusted R-sqrt) in all our regressions (see: https://rpubs.com/JonasKnecht/election_table01_win_voteshare), I make some distribution plots to see whether it’s at all reasonable for us to expect any explanatory power.

Below are conditional density plots between win-loose groups, there is no signficant difference.

Updated Side-by-Side MTurk data:

Side-by-side comparison of new and old MTurk plots: