Hospitalization data from HHS is limited as only started to publish aggregate TN hospital capacity last month.

The COVID Tracking Project currently hospitalized and/or the state reported currently hospitalized to HHS are derived directly from cases. The implied severity of cases currently hopsitalized is a CHR of 60% consensus infection hopsitalization rate (IHR) is 4%. The LoS (lenght of stay) hospitalized would have to be 60/4, or 15 days to calibrate to the COVID Tracking Project 60% CHR. Consensus severity for IHR LoS is 5 days. Reported currently hopsitalized by the state and by COVID Tracking Project is.acf() 3 times to 4 times over stated.

Hospitalization is a major focus. Using severity consensus,currently hospitalized from excess deaths disaggregated from weeky to daily (last published date 2021-01-22) and derived from headline reported deaths (Using a infection Fatality Rate of 0.5%, Infection Hospitalization Rate of 3.9% and hospitalized Length of Stay (LoS)of 5 days), hopsitalizations reported by COVID Tracking Project, and CDC hospital admissions survey COVID-NET. The data does not synch and indicates that actual hospitalization is dropping while the Covid infection peaks.

Headline hospitalizations from the COVID Tracking Projest are overtstated if not fallacious which raises concern for the veractiy of the reported headline deaths data.

SIR models Using CDC/NCHS excess deaths and headline daily deaths (JHu) to derive active “Infections” and thereby “Susceptible” and “Resolved”.

The R(0) is given from both death series.

The general perception of how Covid 19 has progressed is not reality as the epidemic reality. The epidemic was fierce in March to April then having two phases, first in August as F_lorida and A_rizona peaked, then in November to January as the Upper Midwest, Eastern Rockies, and now concluding with Cal_ifornia.

A 40% sTNceptible is used to build the SIR models.

Using the Smith/Dietz Herd Immunity Threshold formula where herd immunity is derived from R():

HI = 1- (1/R())

The “forward R()” is derived, that level of R() which will not increase the epidemic given the current percentage of the populace infected.

Tennessee is mapped against Swe_den. Swe_den is the ‘base case’ where there is only mitigation and no suppression such as quarantine or lock-downs. Given the relentless infectiousness of Covid 19 and while treatment is improving there is still no cure; it is thought all countries will replicate Sweden statTN, especTNlly deaths to percentage infected - that supression only serves to paTNe this process. Of course this does not consider a vaccine.

The cumulative integral, f(x) of normalized daily deaths to percentage of the population that have been infected seeks to summarize the current statTN of Tennessee.
It is assumed that Tennessee is the ‘base case’ and without suppression all countries will to various degrees replicate the Swedish case.
Of concern is how low the cumulative f(x) Using excess deaths is currently.