There is now a large divergence between CDC/NCHS “excess deaths” to the headline daily reported deaths. Headline deaths - COVID Tracking Project (Atlantic Monthly), NY Times, John Hopkins University - seemed to be now derived from cases but now cases have dropped significantly. It is a mystery as to where COVID Tracking Project get their daily deaths data.

Hospitalization data from HHS is limited, only started to publish aggregate CA hospital capacity. From the beginning of the data in early December 2020, there are no signs of any unusual pressure from Covid on hopsitalizations. ICU Covid occupied is dropping quickly. Inpatient hopsital beds Covid occupied are dropping and the early Jan peak Covid occupied never exceeded 1/3.

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The Covid currently hospitalized COVID Tracking Project data and the state reported currently hospitalized are strangely one and the same. Neither data series is in synch with CDC COVID-NET daily Covid admitted data using the agreed consensus severity of Covid hospitalized having a mean of 5 days “Length of Stay” (LoS). The difference indicates headline Covid currently hospitalized is overstated by at least 100% of actual.

The COVID-NET is the way the CDC monitors Covid capacity pressures and is statitically relevant.

The COVID Tracking Project currently hospitalized and/or the state reported currently hospitalized to HHS are clearly cdudely derived directly from cases and not actual.

The COVID Tracking Project implied severity of cases currently hopsitalized is a CHR of 60%
Consensus infection hopsitalization rate (IHR) is 4%. The LoS (lenght of stay) hospitalized would have to be 60/4, or 15 days to calibrate to the COVID Tracking Project 60% CHR. Consensus severity for IHR LoS is 5 days. Reported currently hopsitalized by the state and by COVID Tracking Project is.acf() 3 times to 4 times over stated.

Headline deaths as reported by COVID Tracking Project and others (JHU and NYT) seem grossly over-reported when compared to excess deaths (CDC/NCHS) and assuming a 1.2% case fatality rate (CFR).

Hospitalization has been the leading and most closely followed indication of the status of the epidemic. Using severity consensus,currently hospitalized from excess deaths(CDC/NCHS) disaggregated from weeky to daily (last published date 2021-01-19) and derived from headline reported deaths (Using a infection fatality rate of 0.5%, Infection Hospitalization Rate of 3.9% and hospitalized Length of Stay (LoS)of 5 days), hopsitalizations reported by COVID Tracking Project, and CDC hospital admissions survey COVID-NET. The data does not synch and indicates that actual hospitalization is dropping while the Covid infection peaks.

Headline hospitalizations from the COVID Tracking Projest are overtstated if not fallacious which raises concern for the veractiy of the reported headline deaths data.

SIR models Using CDC/NCHS excess deaths and headline daily deaths (JHu) to derive active “Infections” and thereby “Susceptible” and “Resolved”.

The R(0) is given from both death series.

The general perception of how Covid 19 has progressed is not reality as the epidemic reality. The epidemic was fierce in March to April then having two phases, first in August as F_lorida and A_rizona peaked, then in November to January as the Upper Midwest, Eastern Rockies, and now concluding with Cal_ifornia.

A 40% sCAceptible is used to build the SIR models.

Using the Smith/Dietz Herd Immunity Threshold formula where herd immunity is derived from R():

HI = 1- (1/R())

The “forward R()” is derived, that level of R() which will not increase the epidemic given the current percentage of the populace infected.

California is mapped against Swe_den. Swe_den is the ‘base case’ where there is only mitigation and no suppression such as quarantine or lock-downs. Given the relentless infectiousness of Covid 19 and while treatment is improving there is still no cure; it is thought all countries will replicate Sweden statCA, especCAlly deaths to percentage infected - that supression only serves to paCAe this process. Of course this does not consider a vaccine.

The cumulative integral, f(x) of normalized daily deaths to percentage of the population that have been infected seeks to summarize the current statCA of California.
It is assumed that California is the ‘base case’ and without suppression all countries will to various degrees replicate the Swedish case.
Of concern is how low the cumulative f(x) Using excess deaths is currently.