Election Project Log

This file contains a log of the progress on the faces project. Each log-entry contains:

• An overview of the files contents
• Links to the result-markdowns
• A summary of updates
• Overview of next steps

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Date: Monday, January 25, 2020

Topic: TABLE 01 - Configuration 2

Overview: An overview of what the markdown contains

This update contains links to an updated table 01 with new variables and a stronger baseline lm.

1. Table 1 Configuration 2: I now include an updated linear model for elections. This now includes an interaction term between state x party which leads to a sizable increase in adjusted-\(R^2\) to 0.0692. This table also includes two new variables capturing the parties win-rate prior to the current election, and the parties total win rate excluding the current one. In summary we have:

1. Single Variable Model:

• Election LM
  • This is a GLM based on the three election features we have: state, party, year
  • Includes interaction state x party
• Win-Rate-Prior
  • The win rate of that party in that state over all previous election years
• Win-Rate-Total
  • The win rate of that party in that state over all elections years exlcuding the current
• Gender
• Skin-Tone: 18 skin-tone variants from MTurk
• MTurk Features
• p_hat_cnn
  • This is interpreted the same was as in mugshots, now the CNN is trained on our elections data

2. Multiple Variable Model:

• Election LM + Win-Rate-Prior
• Election LM + Win-Rate-Total
• Election LM + (…) + Sex
• • p_hat_cnn
• Election LM + (…) + Skin-Tone
• • p_hat_cnn
• Election LM + (…) + MTurk Features
• • p_hat_cnn

Link:

1. Baseline table 01: https://rpubs.com/JonasKnecht/election_table01

Next Steps

1. Since our historical win predictors are super weak, which we believe stems from the lack of historical data in our dataset, we aim to include:

• Party-state level historical win record
• Separate this by local vs. hor election type

2. Automate the table-making-process (this is currently taking too long to iterate at any speed)

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Date: Saturday, January 23, 2020

Topic: TABLE 01 - Configuration 1 - FIRST DRAFT

Overview: An overview of what the markdown contains

This update contains links to a first pass at a table 01 for the elections data.

1. Table 1 Configuration 1: This table is based on the agreed upon outline. As such it displays the adjusted R^2 and AUC from regressions of individual variables and combined models on the final release outcome. The models are:

1. Single Variable Model:

• Election LM
  • This is a GLM based on the three election features we have: state, party, year
• Gender
• Skin-Tone: 18 skin-tone variants from MTurk
• MTurk Features
• p_hat_cnn
  • This is interpreted the same was as in mugshots, now the CNN is trained on our elections data

2. Multiple Variable Model:

• Election LM + Sex
• • p_hat_cnn
• Election LM + Sex + Skin-Tone
• • p_hat_cnn
• Election LM + Sex + Skin-Tone + MTurk Features
• • p_hat_cnn

Link:

1. Baseline table 01: https://rpubs.com/JonasKnecht/election_table01

Next Steps

Lets discuss this on Tuesday

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