While no doubt there is a Covid surge underway in the UK, it is not at all as large nor as stressing as the initial surge. UK is in much better prosition than all report.

Hospitalization is main focus and deriving currently hospitalized from excess deaths disaggregated from weeky to daily, last published date 2021-01-05, and from reported deaths. Infection Fatality Rate of 0.5%, a Infection Hospitalization Rate of 3.9% and hopsitalized Length of Stay of 5 days

When excess deaths for 2020, all deaths in 2020 less average of all deaths fro 2016 to 2019, it is clear that the current “surge” started in the summer and was a slow burn until realities of exponential growth became apparent.

United Kingdom is mapped against Swe_den. Swe_den is the ‘base case’ where there is only mitigation and no suppression such as quarantine or lock-downs. Given the relentless infectiousness of Covid 19 and while treatment is improving there is still no cure; it is thought all countries will replicate Sweden status, especially deaths to percentage infected - that supression only serves to pause this process. Of course this does not consider a vaccine.

The cumulative integral, f(x) of normalized daily deaths to percentage of the population that have been infected seeks to summarize the current status of United Kingdom.
It is assumed that United Kingdom is the ‘base case’ and without suppression all countries will to various degrees replicate the Swedish case.
Of concern is how low the cumulative f(x) using excess deaths is currently.

Two SIR models are shown, both based on consensus severity of .5% Infection Fatality Rate and 18 days to death once infected.
The SIR models are useful in understanding the large differnces between public health perception given reported deaths and excess deaths.
Excess deaths are almost always much larger than the reported deaths. The excpetion is Sweden where excess deaths are the same as reported deaths.
Excess deaths are from the mortlaity tables provided by www.mortality.org, The Human Mortality Data Base.

## [1] "2020-12-18"