When excess deaths for 2020, all deaths in 2020 less average of all deaths fro 2016 to 2019, it is clear that the current “surge” started in the summer and was a slow burn until realities of exponential growth became apparent.

Germany is mapped against Swe_den. Swe_den is the ‘base case’ where there is only mitigation and no suppression such as quarantine or lock-downs. Given the relentless infectiousness of Covid 19 and while treatment is improving there is still no cure; it is thought all countries will replicate Sweden status, especially deaths to percentage infected - that supression only serves to pause this process. Of course this does not consider a vaccine.

The cumulative integral, f(x) of normalized daily deaths to percentage of the population that have been infected seeks to summarize the current status of Germany.
It is assumed that Germany is the ‘base case’ and without suppression all countries will to various degrees replicate the Swedish case.
Of concern is how low the cumulative f(x) using excess deaths is currently.