In 2020, the East Valley’s shift from a solid base of GOP support to an increasingly purple section of the Phoenix-Metro steadily continued.
In 2016, GOP candidates on average won 10 out of 11 East Valley Municipality Districts
In 2020, GOP candidates on average won 7 out of 11
The shift away from GOP candidates is happening across the East Valley but is the most prominent in suburbs in closer proximity to Downtown Phoenix
Likely Drivers of Trend:
Influx of families moving from liberal states to premier communities like Chandler and Gilbert
Growing concentration of young, white collar workers and starter families with bachelor’s degrees seeking to live in reasonable commuting distance from downtown Phoenix but interested in the lower cost of living in the East Valley
Demographics mentioned above, especially women with bachelor’s degrees, have become an increasingly difficult demographic for the GOP since Donald Trump’s election in 2016
At the precinct level, the proximity to Downtown Phoenix effect is more prominent
Use the layer control to flip back between 2016 and 2020 and note how widespread the shift in GOP support is in areas like North Gilbert and Chandler
Even in areas that have not turned blue, there is a notable weakening in the GOP’s performance
In 2010, 50% of college educated voters identified themselves as Republicans.
In 2020, 37% of college educated voters identified themselves as Republicans.
This significant change in college educated voter preference is the most obvious cause of the increasing Democratic performance in high educated areas like Chandler and Gilbert.
While Chandler and Gilbert create structural disadvantages for Republicans due to their high level of college educated voters, Mesa creates problems of its own.
Mesa is one of the most diverse areas in the Phoenix-Metro, most notably in Central Mesa.
This is an area that Republicans performed surprisingly well in 2016, but is now an area of weakness due to increased turnout among Hispanics who largely favor Democratic candidates.
Republicans did make gains nationwide with Hispanic voters in 2020, and I anticipate those gains being durable going in to 2022 and causing a deceleration in Mesa’s shift to Democrats.
Proximity to Phoenix’s city center is the most significant driver of weakening GOP performance.
Without a change in political environment, 2022 will see Phoenix’s sphere of influence expanding into Gilbert, and solidifying gains in Central Mesa.
What should concern the GOP the most is the stickiness and widespread nature of the Democratic gains in areas around Phoenix. We have yet to see these gains be reversed, they so far have stuck and deepened. 2022 could be that year, but it would require changes in public opinion on the national level.