The headline Covid 19 tracking data are currently hopsitalizations, cases, and deaths. Only the COVID Tracking Project provides daily “hospitalization” data and all three major metric providers - NY Times, John Hopkins, and COVID Tracking Project agree on cases (new positives) and daily deaths. The COVID Tracking Project “hopsitalizations” data is considered the vanguard of the change in Covid 19, and for the last 2 months has been reported as a very large surge.

It is not clear where COVID Tracking Project get the hospitalization data. It is described as currently hopsitalizaed. That implies it is the net of new admissions less “resolved” - died or recovered - and would be a function of the avergare “length of stay”, or “LOS” severity for Covid.

The consensus of Covid severity meta data reports has LOS mean of 5 days with a broad range from 1 daya to 28 days.

CDC has constructed a nation wide survey called “COVID-NET” while does not cover each state it is statistically robust. It does have California representation so is topical. COVID-NET provides weekly data of cumulative new Covid admissions and the weekly new Covid admissions. The COVID-NET should be similar to the COVID Tracking Project if adjusted by LOS.

However this does not seem to occur but if 15 days LOS is applied to COVID-NET data. That is not in context of reality and implies COVID Tracking Project hospitalization data is roughly 3 times overstated.

Of late the COVID-NET hopsital admissions has stopped increasing though the last data points in December 25th 2020.

COVID Tracking Proejct hopsitalization data is overstated and of late has diverged in terms of direction from COVID-NET.

John Hopkins, NY Times, and COVID Tracking Project all have similar if not same deaths and cases. The following uses John Hopkins data.

The CDC ‘excess deaths’ is used, which is all deaths reported to the National Center of Health Statistics for 2020 less the prior three years average reported deaths. It is likely that the ‘excess deaths’ is a more accurate depiction of Covid 19 deaths than reported Covid 19 Deaths. However excess deaths are lagged by 2 weeks to 3 weeks. This report only uses CDC excess deaths to ‘rlastCDC’ .

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California is mapped against Sweden. Sweden is the ‘base case’ where there is only mitigation and no suppression such as quarantine or lock-downs.
Given the relentless infectiousness of Covid 19 and while treatment is improving there is still no cure, it is thought all countries will replicate Sweden status, especially deaths to percentage infected, in time - that supression only serves to pause this process.
Of course this does not consider a vaccine.

The cumulative integral, f(x) of normalized daily deaths to percentage of the population that have been infected seeks to summarize the current status of California.
It is assumed that Sweden is the ‘base case’ and without suppression all countries will to various degrees replicate the Sedish case.