Document History

Original Publish Date: 2nd January, 2021

Updated on: 19 January, 2021

Index

This index is calculated in the following manner:-For eg a party wins in a PC and then it is calculated how many AC’s it has won in the following State Elections in that PC.Supposedly it has won 2 ACs out of 7 in that PC.it is given as 2/7 Then this is done for 543 constituencies.Score was summed and then is divided by Total Constituencies.To get the index between 0 and 100

Year Index
1977 14.589398
1980 7.109032
1984 56.841803
1985 17.820505
1989 54.914730
1991 40.535629
1996 49.854568
1998 40.011800
1999 45.747042
2004 39.632599
2009 45.051400
2014 56.428718
2019 48.391747

Indices of BJP,INC,Regional Parties

Party BJP INC Regional
1977 0.0000000 10.44324 11.651246
1980 0.0000000 38.63555 7.109032
1984 0.2604167 46.74954 12.126724
1985 0.0000000 18.26618 0.859054
1989 27.0470351 15.87811 26.762424
1991 13.3146831 14.24437 15.953919
1996 25.2944934 19.70479 6.752369
1998 15.4894180 21.28834 12.136752
1999 28.3674145 12.39874 21.198241
2004 13.3095195 18.56978 21.439421
2009 14.7700000 15.74000 21.230000
2014 37.4500000 5.23000 21.629000
2019 46.2900000 2.77000 14.470000

PROBIT REGRESSION

  • This is Probit Regression which is basically a classification problem to determine whether it won Assembly seat or not:
  • Assembly Won is Categorised as Yes or No
  • Indicators are Categorised as:
    • Parliament Won-PC Won[Categorised into Yes,No]
    • Year Category Assembly=StateElection Year-LokSabha Election Year
    • Party Category-National for BJP,INC.Other wise Regional
Dependent variable:
AssemblyWon
Year 2009 Year 2014 Year 2019
(1) (2) (3)
State_Vote_Share 0.121*** 0.140*** 0.138***
(0.002) (0.003) (0.007)
ParliamentWonYes 0.202*** 0.657*** -0.388**
(0.049) (0.053) (0.175)
YearCategoryAssembly1 0.270*** -0.357*** -0.975***
(0.075) (0.077) (0.160)
YearCategoryAssembly2 -0.908*** -0.801***
(0.061) (0.058)
YearCategoryAssembly3 0.072 -0.363***
(0.050) (0.052)
YearCategoryAssembly4 -0.265*** -0.528***
(0.051) (0.054)
Lok_Sabha_Vote_Share -0.008*** -0.019*** 0.002
(0.001) (0.002) (0.004)
PartyCategoryRegional 0.226*** 0.211*** 0.035
(0.044) (0.043) (0.142)
Constant -4.422*** -4.817*** -5.357***
(0.085) (0.100) (0.270)
Observations 133,553 130,029 22,099
Log Likelihood -3,523.967 -3,306.532 -533.173
Akaike Inf. Crit. 7,065.933 6,631.063 1,078.347
Note: p<0.1; p<0.05; p<0.01

Predelimitation Probit Regression

Dependent variable:
AssemblyWon
Year 1977 Year 1980 Year 1984 Year 1991 Year 1996 Year 1999 Year 2004
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)
State_Vote_Share 0.107*** 0.109*** 0.111*** 0.124*** 0.145*** 0.118*** 0.123***
(0.003) (0.002) (0.002) (0.002) (0.004) (0.002) (0.003)
ParliamentWonYes 0.474*** -0.040 0.494*** 0.339*** 0.291*** 0.280*** 0.341***
(0.126) (0.100) (0.054) (0.053) (0.102) (0.052) (0.079)
YearCategoryAssembly2 0.296*** -0.872*** -0.616***
(0.090) (0.065) (0.071)
YearCategoryAssembly3 -0.338*** 0.024 -0.573*** -0.393*** 0.041 -0.459*** -0.857***
(0.085) (0.065) (0.049) (0.049) (0.197) (0.071) (0.082)
YearCategoryAssembly4 0.246*** -0.810*** 0.127*** -0.279*** -1.439***
(0.086) (0.149) (0.039) (0.062) (0.155)
YearCategoryAssembly5 -0.985*** -0.018 0.015 -0.156*** -0.530***
(0.104) (0.068) (0.044) (0.043) (0.059)
YearCategoryAssembly6 -0.031
(0.194)
YearCategoryAssembly8 0.101
(0.136)
Lok_Sabha_Vote_Share -0.012*** -0.009*** -0.012*** -0.015*** -0.012*** -0.017*** -0.011***
(0.003) (0.002) (0.001) (0.001) (0.003) (0.002) (0.002)
PartyCategoryRegional 0.263*** -0.017 0.188*** 0.332*** 0.245** 0.006 0.096
(0.098) (0.081) (0.048) (0.050) (0.114) (0.047) (0.068)
Constant -4.007*** -4.256*** -4.401*** -4.555*** -5.969*** -3.853*** -4.153***
(0.123) (0.126) (0.075) (0.071) (0.201) (0.091) (0.128)
Observations 29,184 49,682 182,836 399,516 77,897 42,835 44,624
Log Likelihood -1,113.664 -1,994.223 -3,802.957 -4,739.399 -1,657.163 -2,959.376 -1,434.207
Akaike Inf. Crit. 2,245.328 4,004.446 7,621.914 9,494.798 3,328.326 5,936.753 2,884.414
Note: p<0.1; p<0.05; p<0.01

# Proportion of State Assembly Seats Vs Margin of Victory for INC

## Proportion of State Assembly VoteShare Vs Margin of Victory for BJP