IS607 Project-3 Summary

Is Best Film Editing is the best predictor of Best Picture ?

Introduction

Primary Objective: “In the Academy Awards, What is the best predictor of Best Picture ?”

Click Here for details on Award Categories, Desired Outcomes, Assumptions, Constraints, Possible Benefit, and Strategy !

Data Acquisition & Transformation

“Acquire the data and Tranform it !”

Click Here for details on the Data Source and Data Transformation

Data Tidying & Reshaping for Analysis

“Tidy & Reshape the data for analysis”

Here are few links that includes the “data tidying” as a pre-processing step to the analysis

Points based approach

Analysis based on Conditional Probability

Decision Tree

Predictive Modeling

Analysis 1 - Points based approach

  • If Best Picture movie was also nominated on other categories then those categories get one point
  • If the BEST Picture movie also won in other categories then those categories get two points. Categories with most points are the best indicators or predictors of Best picture movie.

View
Conclusion: Directing Category can be used a good indicator to PREDICT the BEST PICTURE.

Click Here for Complete Analysis

Analysis 2 - Using 'Bayes' formula

  • Probability of getting Best Movie, given that the movie is nominated in a paricular award category ?

View

Analysis 2 - Using 'Bayes' formula

  • Probability of getting Best Movie, given that the movie wins in a paricular award category ?

View

Conclusion: Directing Category can be used a good indicator to PREDICT the BEST PRICTURE.

Click Here for Complete Analysis

Analysis 3 - Using 'Decision Tree'

View

Conclusion: Directing Category can be used a good indicator to PREDICT the BEST PRICTURE.

Click Here for Complete Analysis

Analysis 4 - Applying Modeling Techniques

Different modeling techniques ( CART, Bagged Trees, Random Forests ) have been applied in the above analysis.

View

Conclusion: No definitive conclusion may be drawn here.

Click Here for Complete Analysis.

Visualizations

Distribution of Nominations By Category

View

Click here for Visualizations Rpubs

Visualizations

Distribution of Winning By Category

View

Click here for Visualizations Rpubs

Visualizations

Distribution of Wins over Winning by Nominations Category

View

Click here for Visualizations Rpubs

Visualizations

Conclusion

  • Majority of our analysis concludes that the Best Film Editing is NOT the best predictor of Best Picture
  • Also, most of the approaches suggests that the Directing Category can be used a good indicator to predict the BEST PICTURE.

View View View

Reference Links