Project 3, Terrorism and impact on economy
Tolchinsky Olga
## Installing package into '/home/rstudio-user/R/x86_64-pc-linux-gnu-library/4.0'
## (as 'lib' is unspecified)## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
## Location = col_character(),
## Year = col_double(),
## Terror_fatalities = col_double()
## )## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
## Year = col_double(),
## Activity = col_character(),
## Share = col_double()
## )## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
## Year = col_double(),
## Hijacking_incidents = col_double(),
## Fatalties_from_hijaking_incidents = col_double()
## )Terrorism is defined in the Oxford Dictionary as “the unlawful use of violence and intimidation, especially against civilians, in the pursuit of political aims.” One of the problem in studing of terrorism is a difficulty to terrorism is a difficulty to distinguish terrorism from other forms of political violence and violent crime.
The datasets include in this project are from the Global Terrorism Database (GTD). GTD defines terrorism as “acts of violence by non-state actors, perpetrated against civilian populations, intended to cause fear, in order to achieve a political objective.”
## # A tibble: 4,373 x 3
## Location Year Terror_fatalities
## <chr> <dbl> <dbl>
## 1 Afghanistan 1973 0
## 2 Afghanistan 1979 53
## 3 Afghanistan 1987 0
## 4 Afghanistan 1988 128
## 5 Afghanistan 1989 10
## 6 Afghanistan 1990 12
## 7 Afghanistan 1991 68
## 8 Afghanistan 1992 49
## 9 Afghanistan 1994 22
## 10 Afghanistan 1995 5
## # … with 4,363 more rowsThe dataset “fatalities_from_terrorism” includes the amount of deaths from terrorism from 1970 to 2017 by countries.
## # A tibble: 20 x 3
## Year Activity Share
## <dbl> <chr> <dbl>
## 1 2001 Fly_on_aeroplanes 43
## 2 2001 Go_into_skyscrapers 35
## 3 2001 Attend_crowded_events 30
## 4 2001 Travel_overseas 48
## 5 2002 Fly_on_aeroplanes 33
## 6 2002 Go_into_skyscrapers 27
## 7 2002 Attend_crowded_events 32
## 8 2002 Travel_overseas 45
## 9 2006 Fly_on_aeroplanes 30
## 10 2006 Go_into_skyscrapers 22
## 11 2006 Attend_crowded_events 23
## 12 2006 Travel_overseas 47
## 13 2011 Fly_on_aeroplanes 24
## 14 2011 Go_into_skyscrapers 20
## 15 2011 Attend_crowded_events 27
## 16 2011 Travel_overseas 38
## 17 2017 Fly_on_aeroplanes 32
## 18 2017 Go_into_skyscrapers 26
## 19 2017 Attend_crowded_events 38
## 20 2017 Travel_overseas 46The dataset “reaction_to_terrorism” includes a share of respondents in the United States who said they were less willing to do certain activities as a result of recent terrorist events.
## # A tibble: 76 x 3
## Year Hijacking_incidents Fatalties_from_hijaking_incidents
## <dbl> <dbl> <dbl>
## 1 1942 0 0
## 2 1943 0 0
## 3 1944 0 0
## 4 1945 0 0
## 5 1946 0 0
## 6 1947 0 0
## 7 1948 7 26
## 8 1949 7 1
## 9 1950 4 0
## 10 1951 1 0
## # … with 66 more rowsThe dataset “hijackings_and_fatalities” includes the amount of hijacking incidents and the number of fatalities from hijacking incidents by year.
## `summarise()` ungrouping output (override with `.groups` argument)## # A tibble: 218 x 2
## Location Terror_fatalities
## <chr> <dbl>
## 1 World 411868
## 2 Middle East & North Africa 137642
## 3 South Asia 101319
## 4 Iraq 78589
## 5 Sub-Saharan Africa 78386
## 6 Afghanistan 39384
## 7 South America 28849
## 8 Central America & Caribbean 28708
## 9 Pakistan 23822
## 10 Nigeria 22682
## # … with 208 more rowsThis analysis shows which regions experience the most terrorism. Most victims of terrorism die in the Middle East, Africa, and South Asia.
The geographical analysis of the spread of deaths shows that terrorism is regionally-focused. One country - Iraq is accounted for 20% of total deaths worldwide from 1970 to 2017. As known, Iraq has been involved in many internal and external military conflicts starting from 1990s.
In South Asia, most deaths occur in Afghanistan, which also went through many internal unrests combined with external wars starting from 1980s.
These two countries illustrate how closely correlated different types of social conflicts are - internal protests, terrorism, and external wars.
Thus, there are challenges to distinguish different forms of social violence and violent crime, such as state-based armed conflict, hate crime, homicide during civil protests, and social unrests. The lines between these different forms of violence are often blurry.
Another conclusion that may be drawn is that all these types of conflicts stimulate each other.
## `summarise()` ungrouping output (override with `.groups` argument)
This graph shows how the amount of deaths from 1970 to 2017 in the world. Starting from 2010, the number of deaths grew significantly with the highest peak in 2014.
## `summarise()` regrouping output by 'Year' (override with `.groups` argument)
This graph shows which country had more fatalities during the peak in 2010 - 2017.
Surprisingly, Ukraine was # 8 in the amount of countries with the most casualties in the world in 2016. In 2013-2014 Ukraine went through social uprising with many civil unrests and protests related to Ukraine’s integration into the European Union.
## `summarise()` ungrouping output (override with `.groups` argument)## # A tibble: 76 x 3
## Year Fatalties_from_hijaking_incidents Hijacking_incidents
## <dbl> <dbl> <dbl>
## 1 2001 268 11
## 2 1996 125 17
## 3 1977 114 32
## 4 1973 88 22
## 5 1986 87 16
## 6 1990 86 38
## 7 1974 83 20
## 8 1985 65 26
## 9 1984 33 27
## 10 1948 26 7
## # … with 66 more rowsAirline hijacking is the unlawful seizure of an aircraft, either by an individual or an organized group. Airline hijacking is a visible form of terrorism, therefore this analysis may be informative.
The dataset ‘hijackings and fatalities’ represents the ranked number of the amount of global airliner hijackings and fatalities. The dataset is only by the years (no location variables are available).
Even though the largest number of fatalities was in 2014, the dataset “hijackings and fatalities” clearly shows that 2001 was the major outlier.
## `summarise()` ungrouping output (override with `.groups` argument)
## # A tibble: 102 x 3
## Location Year Terror_fatalities
## <chr> <dbl> <dbl>
## 1 United States 2001 3008
## 2 Angola 2001 846
## 3 India 2001 660
## 4 Algeria 2001 624
## 5 Colombia 2001 576
## 6 Russia 2001 228
## 7 Sri Lanka 2001 195
## 8 Afghanistan 2001 174
## 9 Nepal 2001 172
## 10 Burundi 2001 166
## # … with 92 more rowsTo find out the location of the outlier, we can filter the dataset ‘fatalities_from_terrorism’ for 2001 year.
Despite the two facts: 1) the year when the largest amount of fatalities was 2014; and 2) Middle East, South Asia, and North Africa had the largest number of deaths, the major outlier in 2001 was in the United States because of Airline hijackings.
The September 11 attacks in New York stand out as the most fatal terrorist event (fatalities rate is 2996) in the world in recent history.
The terrorist attacks have a significant impact on society and the economy. For instance, more than a third in the US say they are less willing to do certain activities because of attack on 9/11.
Here we see that a large share was willing to change their behaviors: over 40% said they were less willing to travel abroad; around a third were less likely to fly and go to crowded events; and one-quarter to go into skyscrapers.
А decrease in the number of people participating in these activities indicates that many industries in the USA experienced a decline in their financial health since 2001.
Follow-up studies can be most informative if it includes a study of the 9/11 attack’s impact on the airline travel demand, as well as demand for traveling and tourism in general.