France: Second Wave
George Robertson
December, 11, 2020
Cumulative Deaths
France cumulative deaths were steady until 5 weeks ago then surged upwards.
Daily Deaths
Daily deaths are plotted and then the smoothed daily deaths overlayed (all data used is provided at the end of this report).
Daily New Cases
Daily new cases are plotted and the smoothed daily new cases overlayed.
Large Surge in Cases
The large surge in France daily new cases is thought to mean there is a large increase in Covid 19, a “second wave”.
Correlation of Cases to Deaths Found
Daily new cases are scatter plotted against daily deaths.
Lagging Deaths to Cases
Death occurs after initial infection and is a lagging indicator. An increase in cases should lead in daily deaths. Daily deaths are lagged 18 days (the severity reports mean for the time required to die after becoming infected).
With daily deaths lagged 18 days, there is significant correlation between daily deaths lagged and daily new cases. This means cases are correctly depicting the disease in France.
## [1] 266
There is significant correlation between lagged daily new deaths and daily new cases.
France deaths are divided by the assumed Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) of 0.5%. This gives the cumulative infections as of 18 days prior to last. This cumulative infections is then divided by the population to give the percentage of France have had Covid 19.
The f(x), the integral of normalized daily deaths to percentage of population infected:
20.4
For perspecitive, California is currently at an f(x) integral of normalized daily deaths to percentage infected of 28.
France data is from Our World in Data
## cn date cases dcases dcasessm death daid daidsm pop l18
## 1 FRA 2020-03-02 191 61 26 3 1 0.3 65273512 53
## 2 FRA 2020-03-03 204 13 27 4 1 0.4 65273512 67
## 3 FRA 2020-03-04 288 84 39 4 0 0.3 65273512 84
## 4 FRA 2020-03-05 380 92 49 6 2 0.6 65273512 102
## 5 FRA 2020-03-06 656 276 86 9 3 1.0 65273512 136
## 6 FRA 2020-03-07 959 303 123 11 2 1.3 65273512 169
## 7 FRA 2020-03-08 1136 177 144 19 8 2.4 65273512 208
## 8 FRA 2020-03-09 1219 83 147 19 0 2.3 65273512 221
## 9 FRA 2020-03-10 1794 575 227 33 14 4.1 65273512 251
## 10 FRA 2020-03-11 2293 499 286 48 15 6.3 65273512 276
## 11 FRA 2020-03-12 2293 0 273 48 0 6.0 65273512 310
## 12 FRA 2020-03-13 3681 1388 432 79 31 10.0 65273512 347
## 13 FRA 2020-03-14 4496 815 505 91 12 11.4 65273512 440
## 14 FRA 2020-03-15 4532 36 485 91 0 10.3 65273512 529
## 15 FRA 2020-03-16 6683 2151 781 149 58 18.6 65273512 646
## 16 FRA 2020-03-17 7715 1032 846 149 0 16.6 65273512 751
## 17 FRA 2020-03-18 9124 1409 976 149 0 14.4 65273512 783
## 18 FRA 2020-03-19 10970 1846 1240 244 95 28.0 65273512 842
## 19 FRA 2020-03-20 12758 1788 1297 451 207 53.1 65273512 973
## 20 FRA 2020-03-21 14463 1705 1424 563 112 67.4 65273512 925
## 21 FRA 2020-03-22 16243 1780 1673 676 113 83.6 65273512 976
## 22 FRA 2020-03-23 20123 3880 1920 862 186 101.9 65273512 956
## 23 FRA 2020-03-24 22622 2499 2130 1102 240 136.1 65273512 897
## 24 FRA 2020-03-25 25600 2978 2354 1333 231 169.1 65273512 903
## 25 FRA 2020-03-26 29551 3951 2654 1698 365 207.7 65273512 866
## 26 FRA 2020-03-27 33402 3851 2949 1997 299 220.9 65273512 770
## 27 FRA 2020-03-28 38105 4703 3377 2317 320 250.6 65273512 897
## 28 FRA 2020-03-29 40708 2603 3495 2611 294 276.4 65273512 813
## 29 FRA 2020-03-30 45170 4462 3578 3030 419 309.7 65273512 781
## 30 FRA 2020-03-31 52827 7657 4315 3532 502 347.1 65273512 782
## 31 FRA 2020-04-01 57749 4922 4593 4414 882 440.1 65273512 758
## 32 FRA 2020-04-02 59929 2180 4340 5398 984 528.6 65273512 754
## 33 FRA 2020-04-03 65202 5273 4543 6520 1122 646.1 65273512 724
## 34 FRA 2020-04-04 69500 4298 4485 7574 1054 751.0 65273512 596
## 35 FRA 2020-04-05 71412 1912 4386 8093 519 783.1 65273512 562
## 36 FRA 2020-04-06 75343 3931 4310 8926 833 842.3 65273512 509
## 37 FRA 2020-04-07 79163 3820 3762 10343 1417 973.0 65273512 470
## 38 FRA 2020-04-08 83057 3894 3615 10887 544 924.7 65273512 448
## 39 FRA 2020-04-09 87366 4309 3920 12228 1341 975.7 65273512 433
## 40 FRA 2020-04-10 91738 4372 3791 13215 987 956.4 65273512 409
## 41 FRA 2020-04-11 94863 3125 3623 13851 636 896.7 65273512 393
## 42 FRA 2020-04-12 121712 26849 7186 14412 561 902.7 65273512 360
## 43 FRA 2020-04-13 125394 3682 7150 14986 574 865.7 65273512 336
## 44 FRA 2020-04-14 130365 4971 7315 15731 745 769.7 65273512 307
## 45 FRA 2020-04-15 133585 3220 7218 17169 1438 897.4 65273512 292
## 46 FRA 2020-04-16 146075 12490 8387 17922 753 813.4 65273512 273
## 47 FRA 2020-04-17 148084 2009 8049 18683 761 781.1 65273512 268
## 48 FRA 2020-04-18 148086 2 7603 19325 642 782.0 65273512 246
## 49 FRA 2020-04-19 153011 4925 4471 19720 395 758.3 65273512 230
## 50 FRA 2020-04-20 155393 2382 4286 20267 547 754.4 65273512 234
## 51 FRA 2020-04-21 158168 2775 3972 20798 531 723.9 65273512 221
## 52 FRA 2020-04-22 155980 -2188 3199 21342 544 596.1 65273512 212
## 53 FRA 2020-04-23 158303 2323 1747 21858 516 562.3 65273512 206
## 54 FRA 2020-04-24 159952 1649 1695 22248 390 509.3 65273512 208
## 55 FRA 2020-04-25 161644 1692 1937 22617 369 470.3 65273512 181
## 56 FRA 2020-04-26 162220 576 1316 22859 242 448.4 65273512 205
## 57 FRA 2020-04-27 165963 3743 1510 23296 437 432.7 65273512 186
## 58 FRA 2020-04-28 169053 3090 1555 23663 367 409.3 65273512 174
## 59 FRA 2020-04-29 166543 -2510 1509 24090 427 392.6 65273512 247
## 60 FRA 2020-04-30 167299 756 1285 24379 289 360.1 65273512 228
## 61 FRA 2020-05-01 167305 6 1050 24597 218 335.6 65273512 147
## 62 FRA 2020-05-02 168518 1213 982 24763 166 306.6 65273512 151
## 63 FRA 2020-05-03 168925 407 958 24900 137 291.6 65273512 113
## 64 FRA 2020-05-04 169583 658 517 25204 304 272.6 65273512 109
## 65 FRA 2020-05-05 170687 1104 233 25537 333 267.7 65273512 115
## 66 FRA 2020-05-06 174224 3537 1097 25812 275 246.0 65273512 37
## 67 FRA 2020-05-07 174918 694 1088 25990 178 230.1 65273512 31
## 68 FRA 2020-05-08 176202 1284 1271 26233 243 233.7 65273512 73
## 69 FRA 2020-05-09 176782 580 1181 26313 80 221.4 65273512 66
## 70 FRA 2020-05-10 177094 312 1167 26383 70 211.9 65273512 64
## 71 FRA 2020-05-11 177547 453 1138 26646 263 206.0 65273512 61
## 72 FRA 2020-05-12 178349 802 1095 26994 348 208.1 65273512 63
## 73 FRA 2020-05-13 178184 -165 566 27077 83 180.7 65273512 62
## 74 FRA 2020-05-14 178994 810 582 27428 351 205.4 65273512 54
## 75 FRA 2020-05-15 179630 636 490 27532 104 185.6 65273512 59
## 76 FRA 2020-05-16 179630 0 407 27532 0 174.1 65273512 61
## 77 FRA 2020-05-17 179693 63 371 28111 579 246.9 65273512 58
## 78 FRA 2020-05-18 180051 358 358 28242 131 228.0 65273512 57
## 79 FRA 2020-05-19 180933 882 369 28025 -217 147.3 65273512 53
## 80 FRA 2020-05-20 181700 767 502 28135 110 151.1 65273512 50
## 81 FRA 2020-05-21 181951 251 422 28218 83 112.9 65273512 54
## 82 FRA 2020-05-22 182354 403 389 28292 74 108.6 65273512 51
## 83 FRA 2020-05-23 182694 340 438 28335 43 114.7 65273512 43
## 84 FRA 2020-05-24 182709 15 431 28370 35 37.0 65273512 40
## 85 FRA 2020-05-25 183067 358 431 28460 90 31.1 65273512 38
## 86 FRA 2020-05-26 182847 -220 273 28533 73 72.6 65273512 37
## 87 FRA 2020-05-27 183038 191 191 28599 66 66.3 65273512 36
## 88 FRA 2020-05-28 186364 3326 630 28665 66 63.9 65273512 32
## 89 FRA 2020-05-29 186923 559 653 28717 52 60.7 65273512 36
## 90 FRA 2020-05-30 188752 1829 865 28774 57 62.7 65273512 37
## 91 FRA 2020-05-31 189009 257 900 28805 31 62.1 65273512 37
## 92 FRA 2020-06-01 189348 339 897 28836 31 53.7 65273512 35
## 93 FRA 2020-06-02 188582 -766 819 28943 107 58.6 65273512 34
## 94 FRA 2020-06-03 188934 352 842 29024 81 60.7 65273512 33
## 95 FRA 2020-06-04 189701 767 477 29068 44 57.6 65273512 32
## 96 FRA 2020-06-05 190312 611 484 29114 46 56.7 65273512 25
## 97 FRA 2020-06-06 190891 579 306 29145 31 53.0 65273512 22
## 98 FRA 2020-06-07 191234 343 318 29158 13 50.4 65273512 21
## 99 FRA 2020-06-08 191445 211 300 29212 54 53.7 65273512 23
## 100 FRA 2020-06-09 191849 404 467 29299 87 50.9 65273512 21
## 101 FRA 2020-06-10 192394 545 494 29322 23 42.6 65273512 20
## 102 FRA 2020-06-11 192819 425 445 29349 27 40.1 65273512 21
## 103 FRA 2020-06-12 193546 727 462 29377 28 37.6 65273512 18
## 104 FRA 2020-06-13 194072 526 454 29401 24 36.6 65273512 19
## 105 FRA 2020-06-14 194479 407 464 29410 9 36.0 65273512 18
## 106 FRA 2020-06-15 194631 152 455 29439 29 32.4 65273512 16
## 107 FRA 2020-06-16 194975 344 447 29550 111 35.9 65273512 16
## 108 FRA 2020-06-17 195433 458 434 29578 28 36.6 65273512 16
## 109 FRA 2020-06-18 195900 467 440 29606 28 36.7 65273512 15
## 110 FRA 2020-06-19 196711 811 452 29620 14 34.7 65273512 13
## 111 FRA 2020-06-20 197352 641 469 29636 16 33.6 65273512 10
## 112 FRA 2020-06-21 197636 284 451 29643 7 33.3 65273512 15
## 113 FRA 2020-06-22 198009 373 483 29666 23 32.4 65273512 16
## 114 FRA 2020-06-23 198526 517 507 29723 57 24.7 65273512 16
## 115 FRA 2020-06-24 198607 81 453 29734 11 22.3 65273512 16
## 116 FRA 2020-06-25 198607 0 387 29755 21 21.3 65273512 16
## 117 FRA 2020-06-26 200195 1588 498 29781 26 23.0 65273512 14
## 118 FRA 2020-06-27 200195 0 406 29781 0 20.7 65273512 27
## 119 FRA 2020-06-28 199476 -719 263 29781 0 19.7 65273512 23
## 120 FRA 2020-06-29 201522 2046 502 29816 35 21.4 65273512 21
## 121 FRA 2020-06-30 202063 541 505 29846 30 17.6 65273512 21
## 122 FRA 2020-07-01 202981 918 625 29864 18 18.6 65273512 21
## 123 FRA 2020-07-02 203640 659 719 29878 14 17.6 65273512 21
## 124 FRA 2020-07-03 204222 582 575 29896 18 16.4 65273512 19
## 125 FRA 2020-07-04 204222 0 575 29896 0 16.4 65273512 7
## 126 FRA 2020-07-05 204222 0 678 29896 0 16.4 65273512 6
## 127 FRA 2020-07-06 205597 1375 582 29923 27 15.3 65273512 6
## 128 FRA 2020-07-07 206072 475 573 29936 13 12.9 65273512 6
## 129 FRA 2020-07-08 206072 0 442 29936 0 10.3 65273512 6
## 130 FRA 2020-07-09 207356 1284 531 29982 46 14.9 65273512 5
## 131 FRA 2020-07-10 208015 659 542 30007 25 15.9 65273512 8
## 132 FRA 2020-07-11 208015 0 542 30007 0 15.9 65273512 7
## 133 FRA 2020-07-12 208015 0 542 30007 0 15.9 65273512 8
## 134 FRA 2020-07-13 209640 1625 578 30032 25 15.6 65273512 10
## 135 FRA 2020-07-14 209640 0 510 30032 0 13.7 65273512 10
## 136 FRA 2020-07-15 210568 928 642 30123 91 26.7 65273512 10
## 137 FRA 2020-07-16 211102 534 535 30141 18 22.7 65273512 8
## 138 FRA 2020-07-17 211943 841 561 30155 14 21.1 65273512 10
## 139 FRA 2020-07-18 211943 0 561 30155 0 21.1 65273512 10
## 140 FRA 2020-07-19 211943 0 561 30155 0 21.1 65273512 10
## 141 FRA 2020-07-20 214023 2080 626 30180 25 21.1 65273512 8
## 142 FRA 2020-07-21 214607 584 710 30168 -12 19.4 65273512 8
## 143 FRA 2020-07-22 215605 998 720 30175 7 7.4 65273512 8
## 144 FRA 2020-07-23 216667 1062 795 30185 10 6.3 65273512 8
## 145 FRA 2020-07-24 217797 1130 836 30195 10 5.7 65273512 4
## 146 FRA 2020-07-25 217801 4 837 30195 0 5.7 65273512 11
## 147 FRA 2020-07-26 217801 0 837 30195 0 5.7 65273512 12
## 148 FRA 2020-07-27 220352 2551 904 30212 17 4.6 65273512 12
## 149 FRA 2020-07-28 221077 725 924 30226 14 8.3 65273512 12
## 150 FRA 2020-07-29 221077 0 782 30226 0 7.3 65273512 12
## 151 FRA 2020-07-30 222469 1392 829 30241 15 8.0 65273512 15
## 152 FRA 2020-07-31 225197 2728 1057 30268 27 10.4 65273512 15
## 153 FRA 2020-08-01 225198 1 1057 30268 0 10.4 65273512 8
## 154 FRA 2020-08-02 225198 0 1057 30268 0 10.4 65273512 6
## 155 FRA 2020-08-03 225198 0 692 30268 0 8.0 65273512 14
## 156 FRA 2020-08-04 228576 3378 1071 30297 29 10.1 65273512 15
## 157 FRA 2020-08-05 228576 0 1071 30297 0 10.1 65273512 15
## 158 FRA 2020-08-06 231310 2734 1263 30308 11 9.6 65273512 14
## 159 FRA 2020-08-07 235207 3897 1430 30327 19 8.4 65273512 16
## 160 FRA 2020-08-08 235208 1 1430 30327 0 8.4 65273512 16
## 161 FRA 2020-08-09 235237 29 1434 30327 0 8.4 65273512 21
## 162 FRA 2020-08-10 239349 4112 2022 30327 0 8.4 65273512 13
## 163 FRA 2020-08-11 239355 6 1540 30328 1 4.4 65273512 12
## 164 FRA 2020-08-12 244088 4733 2216 30375 47 11.1 65273512 13
## 165 FRA 2020-08-13 244096 8 1827 30392 17 12.0 65273512 15
## 166 FRA 2020-08-14 249655 5559 2064 30410 18 11.9 65273512 17
## 167 FRA 2020-08-15 252965 3310 2537 30410 0 11.9 65273512 20
## 168 FRA 2020-08-16 252965 0 2533 30410 0 11.9 65273512 19
## 169 FRA 2020-08-17 256533 3568 2455 30434 24 15.3 65273512 18
## 170 FRA 2020-08-18 256534 1 2454 30434 0 15.1 65273512 18
## 171 FRA 2020-08-19 256534 0 1778 30434 0 8.4 65273512 17
## 172 FRA 2020-08-20 256534 0 1777 30434 0 6.0 65273512 13
## 173 FRA 2020-08-21 271960 15426 3186 30508 74 14.0 65273512 15
## 174 FRA 2020-08-22 275562 3602 3228 30517 9 15.3 65273512 16
## 175 FRA 2020-08-23 280459 4897 3928 30518 1 15.4 65273512 15
## 176 FRA 2020-08-24 282414 1955 3697 30533 15 14.1 65273512 24
## 177 FRA 2020-08-25 285902 3488 4195 30549 16 16.4 65273512 25
## 178 FRA 2020-08-26 291374 5472 4977 30549 0 16.4 65273512 25
## 179 FRA 2020-08-27 297485 6111 5850 30581 32 21.0 65273512 32
## 180 FRA 2020-08-28 304947 7462 4712 30601 20 13.3 65273512 34
## 181 FRA 2020-08-29 304947 0 4198 30601 0 12.0 65273512 36
## 182 FRA 2020-08-30 315813 10866 5051 30611 10 13.3 65273512 41
## 183 FRA 2020-08-31 318986 3173 5225 30640 29 15.3 65273512 51
## 184 FRA 2020-09-01 323968 4982 5438 30666 26 16.7 65273512 51
## 185 FRA 2020-09-02 331060 7092 5669 30692 26 20.4 65273512 51
## 186 FRA 2020-09-03 338220 7160 5819 30712 20 18.7 65273512 55
## 187 FRA 2020-09-04 347267 9047 6046 30730 18 18.4 65273512 60
## 188 FRA 2020-09-05 347267 0 6046 30730 0 18.4 65273512 56
## 189 FRA 2020-09-06 347268 1 4494 30730 0 17.0 65273512 60
## 190 FRA 2020-09-07 367174 19906 6884 30732 2 13.1 65273512 60
## 191 FRA 2020-09-08 373718 6544 7107 30770 38 14.9 65273512 60
## 192 FRA 2020-09-09 383292 9574 7462 30805 35 16.1 65273512 60
## 193 FRA 2020-09-10 392243 8951 7718 30819 14 15.3 65273512 57
## 194 FRA 2020-09-11 401890 9647 7803 30901 82 24.4 65273512 69
## 195 FRA 2020-09-12 402811 921 7935 30902 1 24.6 65273512 77
## 196 FRA 2020-09-13 402893 82 7946 30903 1 24.7 65273512 73
## 197 FRA 2020-09-14 425870 22977 8385 30958 55 32.3 65273512 71
## 198 FRA 2020-09-15 433905 8035 8598 31007 49 33.9 65273512 71
## 199 FRA 2020-09-16 443869 9964 8654 31056 49 35.9 65273512 71
## 200 FRA 2020-09-17 454266 10397 8860 31103 47 40.6 65273512 82
## 201 FRA 2020-09-18 467421 13155 9362 31257 154 50.9 65273512 68
## 202 FRA 2020-09-19 467614 193 9258 31257 0 50.7 65273512 68
## 203 FRA 2020-09-20 467614 0 9246 31257 0 50.6 65273512 72
## 204 FRA 2020-09-21 496851 29237 10140 31346 89 55.4 65273512 61
## 205 FRA 2020-09-22 507150 10299 10464 31426 80 59.9 65273512 61
## 206 FRA 2020-09-23 508456 1306 9227 31447 21 55.9 65273512 61
## 207 FRA 2020-09-24 536289 27833 11718 31524 77 60.1 65273512 55
## 208 FRA 2020-09-25 552421 16132 12143 31675 151 59.7 65273512 86
## 209 FRA 2020-09-26 552454 33 12120 31675 0 59.7 65273512 85
## 210 FRA 2020-09-27 552473 19 12123 31675 0 59.7 65273512 87
## 211 FRA 2020-09-28 577980 25507 11590 31744 69 56.9 65273512 103
## 212 FRA 2020-09-29 590021 12041 11839 31908 164 68.9 65273512 103
## 213 FRA 2020-09-30 604031 14010 13654 31986 78 77.0 65273512 103
## 214 FRA 2020-10-01 616986 12955 11528 32034 48 72.9 65273512 135
## 215 FRA 2020-10-02 629431 12445 11001 32171 137 70.9 65273512 135
## 216 FRA 2020-10-03 629509 78 11008 32171 0 70.9 65273512 145
## 217 FRA 2020-10-04 629509 0 11005 32171 0 70.9 65273512 156
## 218 FRA 2020-10-05 664289 34780 12330 32317 146 81.9 65273512 173
## 219 FRA 2020-10-06 675736 11447 12245 32383 66 67.9 65273512 173
## 220 FRA 2020-10-07 693603 17867 12796 32463 80 68.1 65273512 173
## 221 FRA 2020-10-08 711704 18101 13531 32539 76 72.1 65273512 201
## 222 FRA 2020-10-09 732434 20730 14715 32601 62 61.4 65273512 236
## 223 FRA 2020-10-10 732434 0 14704 32601 0 61.4 65273512 250
## 224 FRA 2020-10-11 732434 0 14704 32601 0 61.4 65273512 260
## 225 FRA 2020-10-12 776097 43663 15973 32703 102 55.1 65273512 296
## 226 FRA 2020-10-13 798257 22160 17503 32982 279 85.6 65273512 327
## 227 FRA 2020-10-14 820376 22119 18110 33058 76 85.0 65273512 360
## 228 FRA 2020-10-15 850997 30621 19899 33146 88 86.7 65273512 348
## 229 FRA 2020-10-16 876342 25345 20558 33325 179 103.4 65273512 333
## 230 FRA 2020-10-17 876342 0 20558 33325 0 103.4 65273512 415
## 231 FRA 2020-10-18 876342 0 20558 33325 0 103.4 65273512 433
## 232 FRA 2020-10-19 952600 76258 25215 33647 322 134.9 65273512 473
## 233 FRA 2020-10-20 973275 20675 25003 33928 281 135.1 65273512 485
## 234 FRA 2020-10-21 1000369 27094 25713 34075 147 145.3 65273512 490
## 235 FRA 2020-10-22 1041991 41622 27285 34237 162 155.9 65273512 509
## 236 FRA 2020-10-23 1084659 42668 29760 34536 299 173.0 65273512 622
## 237 FRA 2020-10-24 1084684 25 29763 34536 0 173.0 65273512 553
## 238 FRA 2020-10-25 1084746 62 29772 34536 0 173.0 65273512 562
## 239 FRA 2020-10-26 1209651 124905 36722 35052 516 200.7 65273512 577
## 240 FRA 2020-10-27 1244242 34591 38710 35582 530 236.3 65273512 584
## 241 FRA 2020-10-28 1280215 35973 39978 35823 241 249.7 65273512 589
## 242 FRA 2020-10-29 1327852 47637 40837 36058 235 260.1 65273512 582
## 243 FRA 2020-10-30 1377347 49495 41813 36605 547 295.6 65273512 582
## 244 FRA 2020-10-31 1412709 35362 46861 36826 221 327.1 65273512 596
## 245 FRA 2020-11-01 1458999 46290 53465 37057 231 360.1 65273512 597
## 246 FRA 2020-11-02 1512541 53542 43270 37485 428 347.6 65273512 626
## 247 FRA 2020-11-03 1549174 36633 43562 37915 430 333.3 65273512 612
## 248 FRA 2020-11-04 1591152 41978 44420 38728 813 415.0 65273512 599
## 249 FRA 2020-11-05 1648989 57837 45877 39088 360 432.9 65273512 599
## 250 FRA 2020-11-06 1709716 60727 47481 39916 828 473.0 65273512 568
## 251 FRA 2020-11-07 1709773 57 42438 40220 304 484.9 65273512 561
## 252 FRA 2020-11-08 1835187 125414 53741 40490 270 490.4 65273512 549
## 253 FRA 2020-11-09 1856027 20840 49069 41048 558 509.0 65273512 523
## 254 FRA 2020-11-10 1878498 22471 47046 42271 1223 622.3 65273512 517
## 255 FRA 2020-11-11 1914722 36224 46224 42599 328 553.0 65273512 515
## 256 FRA 2020-11-12 1948134 33412 42735 43024 425 562.3 65273512 501
## 257 FRA 2020-11-13 1972149 24015 37490 43957 933 577.3 65273512 467
## 258 FRA 2020-11-14 2004244 32095 42067 44311 354 584.4 65273512 458
## 259 FRA 2020-11-15 2031472 27228 28041 44613 302 589.0 65273512 456
## 260 FRA 2020-11-16 2041293 9821 26467 45122 509 582.0 65273512 409
## 261 FRA 2020-11-17 2087183 45890 29812 46346 1224 582.1 65273512 409
## 262 FRA 2020-11-18 2115717 28534 28714 46772 426 596.1 65273512 405
## 263 FRA 2020-11-19 2137096 21379 26995 47201 429 596.7 65273512 399
## 264 FRA 2020-11-20 2160343 23247 26885 48341 1140 626.3 65273512 408
## 265 FRA 2020-11-21 2178023 17680 24826 48593 252 611.7 65273512 407
## 266 FRA 2020-11-22 2191180 13157 22815 48807 214 599.1 65273512 402
## 267 FRA 2020-11-23 2195940 4760 22092 49312 505 598.6 65273512 NA
## 268 FRA 2020-11-24 2206126 10186 16992 50324 1012 568.3 65273512 NA
## 269 FRA 2020-11-25 2221874 15748 15165 50700 376 561.1 65273512 NA
## 270 FRA 2020-11-26 2235537 13663 14063 51041 341 548.6 65273512 NA
## 271 FRA 2020-11-27 2248209 12672 12552 51999 958 522.6 65273512 NA
## 272 FRA 2020-11-28 2260789 12580 11824 52212 213 517.0 65273512 NA
## 273 FRA 2020-11-29 2270573 9784 11342 52410 198 514.7 65273512 NA
## 274 FRA 2020-11-30 2274902 4329 11280 52819 409 501.0 65273512 NA
## 275 FRA 2020-12-01 2283172 8270 11007 53595 776 467.3 65273512 NA
## 276 FRA 2020-12-02 2297393 14221 10788 53906 311 458.0 65273512 NA
## 277 FRA 2020-12-03 2310271 12878 10676 54231 325 455.7 65273512 NA
## 278 FRA 2020-12-04 2321703 11432 10499 54859 628 408.6 65273512 NA
## 279 FRA 2020-12-05 2334626 12923 10548 55073 214 408.7 65273512 NA
## 280 FRA 2020-12-06 2345648 11022 10725 55247 174 405.3 65273512 NA
## 281 FRA 2020-12-07 2349059 3411 10594 55613 366 399.1 65273512 NA
## 282 FRA 2020-12-08 2363196 14137 11432 56453 840 408.3 65273512 NA
## 283 FRA 2020-12-09 2377913 14717 11503 56752 299 406.6 65273512 NA
## 284 FRA 2020-12-10 2391643 13730 11625 57044 292 401.9 65273512 NA
## cuminf peri ndaidsm cumint
## 1 600 0.000009 0.001 0.00000001
## 2 800 0.000012 0.002 0.00000003
## 3 800 0.000012 0.001 0.00000005
## 4 1200 0.000018 0.002 0.00000009
## 5 1800 0.000028 0.004 0.00000020
## 6 2200 0.000034 0.005 0.00000037
## 7 3800 0.000058 0.010 0.00000094
## 8 3800 0.000058 0.009 0.00000147
## 9 6600 0.000101 0.017 0.00000315
## 10 9600 0.000147 0.025 0.00000686
## 11 9600 0.000147 0.024 0.00001039
## 12 15800 0.000242 0.040 0.00002009
## 13 18200 0.000279 0.046 0.00003286
## 14 18200 0.000279 0.041 0.00004436
## 15 29800 0.000457 0.074 0.00007834
## 16 29800 0.000457 0.066 0.00010866
## 17 29800 0.000457 0.058 0.00013506
## 18 48800 0.000748 0.112 0.00021895
## 19 90200 0.001382 0.213 0.00051326
## 20 112600 0.001725 0.270 0.00097942
## 21 135200 0.002071 0.335 0.00167315
## 22 172400 0.002641 0.408 0.00275130
## 23 220400 0.003377 0.546 0.00459360
## 24 266600 0.004084 0.678 0.00736224
## 25 339600 0.005203 0.832 0.01169323
## 26 399400 0.006119 0.885 0.01710915
## 27 463400 0.007099 1.004 0.02423833
## 28 522200 0.008000 1.108 0.03310118
## 29 606000 0.009284 1.241 0.04462474
## 30 706400 0.010822 1.391 0.05968082
## 31 882800 0.013525 1.764 0.08353746
## 32 1079600 0.016540 2.118 0.11857383
## 33 1304000 0.019977 2.590 0.17030583
## 34 1514800 0.023207 3.010 0.24015291
## 35 1618600 0.024797 3.139 0.31798051
## 36 1785200 0.027350 3.376 0.41030129
## 37 2068600 0.031691 3.899 0.53387963
## 38 2177400 0.033358 3.706 0.65750245
## 39 2445600 0.037467 3.910 0.80401033
## 40 2643000 0.040491 3.833 0.95921433
## 41 2770200 0.042440 3.594 1.11173127
## 42 2882400 0.044159 3.618 1.27148736
## 43 2997200 0.045918 3.469 1.43079741
## 44 3146200 0.048200 3.085 1.57948295
## 45 3433800 0.052606 3.597 1.76868598
## 46 3584400 0.054914 3.260 1.94770086
## 47 3736600 0.057245 3.131 2.12691001
## 48 3865000 0.059212 3.134 2.31248064
## 49 3944000 0.060423 3.039 2.49610190
## 50 4053400 0.062099 3.023 2.68385661
## 51 4159600 0.063726 2.901 2.86872274
## 52 4268400 0.065393 2.389 3.02495423
## 53 4371600 0.066974 2.253 3.17587559
## 54 4449600 0.068169 2.041 3.31501037
## 55 4523400 0.069299 1.885 3.44562146
## 56 4571800 0.070041 1.797 3.57149485
## 57 4659200 0.071380 1.734 3.69527908
## 58 4732600 0.072504 1.640 3.81420587
## 59 4818000 0.073812 1.573 3.93033415
## 60 4875800 0.074698 1.443 4.03814783
## 61 4919400 0.075366 1.345 4.13950386
## 62 4952600 0.075875 1.229 4.23272562
## 63 4980000 0.076294 1.169 4.32187672
## 64 5040800 0.077226 1.092 4.40623585
## 65 5107400 0.078246 1.073 4.49018648
## 66 5162400 0.079089 0.986 4.56815868
## 67 5198000 0.079634 0.922 4.64160788
## 68 5246600 0.080379 0.937 4.71689413
## 69 5262600 0.080624 0.887 4.78844055
## 70 5276600 0.080838 0.849 4.85707624
## 71 5329200 0.081644 0.826 4.92447970
## 72 5398800 0.082710 0.834 4.99347382
## 73 5415400 0.082965 0.724 5.05356010
## 74 5485600 0.084040 0.823 5.12274940
## 75 5506400 0.084359 0.744 5.18548743
## 76 5506400 0.084359 0.698 5.24436187
## 77 5622200 0.086133 0.989 5.32957465
## 78 5648400 0.086534 0.914 5.40864493
## 79 5605000 0.085869 0.590 5.45933118
## 80 5627000 0.086206 0.606 5.51154890
## 81 5643600 0.086461 0.452 5.55065439
## 82 5658400 0.086688 0.435 5.58837342
## 83 5667000 0.086819 0.460 5.62828718
## 84 5674000 0.086927 0.148 5.64117692
## 85 5692000 0.087202 0.125 5.65206066
## 86 5706600 0.087426 0.291 5.67748757
## 87 5719800 0.087628 0.266 5.70076611
## 88 5733000 0.087830 0.256 5.72324337
## 89 5743400 0.087990 0.243 5.74465309
## 90 5754800 0.088164 0.251 5.76681197
## 91 5761000 0.088259 0.249 5.78879275
## 92 5767200 0.088354 0.215 5.80781253
## 93 5788600 0.088682 0.235 5.82862910
## 94 5804800 0.088930 0.243 5.85026769
## 95 5813600 0.089065 0.231 5.87081723
## 96 5822800 0.089206 0.227 5.89109289
## 97 5829000 0.089301 0.212 5.91006095
## 98 5831600 0.089341 0.202 5.92811694
## 99 5842400 0.089506 0.215 5.94738472
## 100 5859800 0.089773 0.204 5.96568200
## 101 5864400 0.089843 0.171 5.98101018
## 102 5869800 0.089926 0.161 5.99547743
## 103 5875400 0.090012 0.151 6.00903067
## 104 5880200 0.090086 0.147 6.02223396
## 105 5882000 0.090113 0.144 6.03523507
## 106 5887800 0.090202 0.130 6.04695809
## 107 5910000 0.090542 0.144 6.05996921
## 108 5915600 0.090628 0.147 6.07325197
## 109 5921200 0.090714 0.147 6.08659931
## 110 5924000 0.090757 0.139 6.09922551
## 111 5927200 0.090806 0.135 6.11144257
## 112 5928600 0.090827 0.133 6.12355878
## 113 5933200 0.090898 0.130 6.13537220
## 114 5944600 0.091072 0.099 6.14439245
## 115 5946800 0.091106 0.089 6.15252953
## 116 5951000 0.091170 0.085 6.16030698
## 117 5956200 0.091250 0.092 6.16871802
## 118 5956200 0.091250 0.083 6.17629309
## 119 5956200 0.091250 0.079 6.18350245
## 120 5963200 0.091357 0.086 6.19134820
## 121 5969200 0.091449 0.070 6.19778790
## 122 5972800 0.091504 0.074 6.20459820
## 123 5975600 0.091547 0.070 6.21104480
## 124 5979200 0.091602 0.066 6.21707605
## 125 5979200 0.091602 0.066 6.22310730
## 126 5979200 0.091602 0.066 6.22913855
## 127 5984600 0.091685 0.061 6.23475526
## 128 5987200 0.091725 0.052 6.23948151
## 129 5987200 0.091725 0.041 6.24326265
## 130 5996400 0.091866 0.060 6.24873249
## 131 6001400 0.091942 0.064 6.25457537
## 132 6001400 0.091942 0.064 6.26041824
## 133 6001400 0.091942 0.064 6.26626112
## 134 6006400 0.092019 0.062 6.27200339
## 135 6006400 0.092019 0.055 6.27706084
## 136 6024600 0.092298 0.107 6.28694227
## 137 6028200 0.092353 0.091 6.29534914
## 138 6031000 0.092396 0.085 6.30317819
## 139 6031000 0.092396 0.085 6.31100724
## 140 6031000 0.092396 0.085 6.31883629
## 141 6036000 0.092472 0.085 6.32667183
## 142 6033600 0.092436 0.078 6.33386930
## 143 6035000 0.092457 0.030 6.33662201
## 144 6037000 0.092488 0.025 6.33895197
## 145 6039000 0.092518 0.023 6.34107061
## 146 6039000 0.092518 0.023 6.34318926
## 147 6039000 0.092518 0.023 6.34530791
## 148 6042400 0.092570 0.018 6.34700370
## 149 6045200 0.092613 0.033 6.35007915
## 150 6045200 0.092613 0.029 6.35278344
## 151 6048200 0.092659 0.032 6.35575421
## 152 6053600 0.092742 0.042 6.35963044
## 153 6053600 0.092742 0.042 6.36350667
## 154 6053600 0.092742 0.042 6.36738290
## 155 6053600 0.092742 0.032 6.37035632
## 156 6059400 0.092831 0.041 6.37412986
## 157 6059400 0.092831 0.041 6.37790340
## 158 6061600 0.092865 0.038 6.38146543
## 159 6065400 0.092923 0.034 6.38460441
## 160 6065400 0.092923 0.034 6.38774339
## 161 6065400 0.092923 0.034 6.39088237
## 162 6065400 0.092923 0.034 6.39402135
## 163 6065600 0.092926 0.018 6.39567077
## 164 6075000 0.093070 0.045 6.39982702
## 165 6078400 0.093122 0.048 6.40430543
## 166 6082000 0.093177 0.048 6.40873309
## 167 6082000 0.093177 0.048 6.41316075
## 168 6082000 0.093177 0.048 6.41758841
## 169 6086800 0.093251 0.061 6.42330104
## 170 6086800 0.093251 0.061 6.42896022
## 171 6086800 0.093251 0.034 6.43211028
## 172 6086800 0.093251 0.024 6.43435257
## 173 6101600 0.093477 0.056 6.43959732
## 174 6103400 0.093505 0.061 6.44532553
## 175 6103600 0.093508 0.062 6.45110751
## 176 6106600 0.093554 0.057 6.45641018
## 177 6109800 0.093603 0.066 6.46257316
## 178 6109800 0.093603 0.066 6.46873615
## 179 6116200 0.093701 0.084 6.47662210
## 180 6120200 0.093762 0.053 6.48161454
## 181 6120200 0.093762 0.048 6.48612374
## 182 6122200 0.093793 0.053 6.49111781
## 183 6128000 0.093882 0.061 6.49686911
## 184 6133200 0.093962 0.067 6.50316302
## 185 6138400 0.094041 0.082 6.51086239
## 186 6142400 0.094102 0.075 6.51792000
## 187 6146000 0.094158 0.074 6.52487420
## 188 6146000 0.094158 0.074 6.53182841
## 189 6146000 0.094158 0.068 6.53824337
## 190 6146400 0.094164 0.053 6.54320322
## 191 6154000 0.094280 0.060 6.54881682
## 192 6161000 0.094387 0.065 6.55492327
## 193 6163800 0.094430 0.061 6.56070816
## 194 6180200 0.094682 0.098 6.56997777
## 195 6180400 0.094685 0.098 6.57930156
## 196 6180600 0.094688 0.099 6.58867991
## 197 6191600 0.094856 0.129 6.60095346
## 198 6201400 0.095006 0.136 6.61384460
## 199 6211200 0.095157 0.144 6.62751881
## 200 6220600 0.095301 0.163 6.64301415
## 201 6251400 0.095772 0.204 6.66253420
## 202 6251400 0.095772 0.203 6.68199937
## 203 6251400 0.095772 0.203 6.70140965
## 204 6269200 0.096045 0.222 6.72274512
## 205 6285200 0.096290 0.240 6.74584380
## 206 6289400 0.096355 0.224 6.76741329
## 207 6304800 0.096590 0.241 6.79069470
## 208 6335000 0.097053 0.239 6.81392078
## 209 6335000 0.097053 0.239 6.83714685
## 210 6335000 0.097053 0.239 6.86037292
## 211 6348800 0.097265 0.228 6.88253592
## 212 6381600 0.097767 0.276 6.90951522
## 213 6397200 0.098006 0.309 6.93975884
## 214 6406800 0.098153 0.292 6.96841813
## 215 6434200 0.098573 0.284 6.99640990
## 216 6434200 0.098573 0.284 7.02440166
## 217 6434200 0.098573 0.284 7.05239343
## 218 6463400 0.099020 0.328 7.08487746
## 219 6476600 0.099222 0.272 7.11186074
## 220 6492600 0.099468 0.273 7.13902469
## 221 6507800 0.099700 0.289 7.16785049
## 222 6520200 0.099890 0.246 7.19244212
## 223 6520200 0.099890 0.246 7.21703376
## 224 6520200 0.099890 0.246 7.24162539
## 225 6540600 0.100203 0.221 7.26376964
## 226 6596400 0.101058 0.343 7.29842629
## 227 6611600 0.101291 0.341 7.33293101
## 228 6629200 0.101560 0.348 7.36822521
## 229 6665000 0.102109 0.415 7.41055007
## 230 6665000 0.102109 0.415 7.45287492
## 231 6665000 0.102109 0.415 7.49519978
## 232 6729400 0.103095 0.540 7.55091872
## 233 6785600 0.103956 0.542 7.60722215
## 234 6815000 0.104407 0.582 7.66801361
## 235 6847400 0.104903 0.625 7.73353831
## 236 6907200 0.105819 0.693 7.80690538
## 237 6907200 0.105819 0.693 7.88027244
## 238 6907200 0.105819 0.693 7.95363950
## 239 7010400 0.107400 0.804 8.04003149
## 240 7116400 0.109024 0.947 8.14327229
## 241 7164600 0.109763 1.001 8.25311920
## 242 7211600 0.110483 1.043 8.36830443
## 243 7321000 0.112159 1.185 8.50116167
## 244 7365200 0.112836 1.311 8.64909812
## 245 7411400 0.113544 1.443 8.81297898
## 246 7497000 0.114855 1.393 8.97296574
## 247 7583000 0.116173 1.336 9.12813695
## 248 7745600 0.118664 1.663 9.32549560
## 249 7817600 0.119767 1.735 9.53325989
## 250 7983200 0.122304 1.896 9.76510138
## 251 8044000 0.123235 1.943 10.00456456
## 252 8098000 0.124063 1.965 10.24840567
## 253 8209600 0.125772 2.040 10.50496793
## 254 8454200 0.129520 2.494 10.82797763
## 255 8519800 0.130525 2.216 11.11725039
## 256 8604800 0.131827 2.253 11.41431510
## 257 8791400 0.134686 2.314 11.72591841
## 258 8862200 0.135770 2.342 12.04391782
## 259 8922600 0.136696 2.361 12.36658867
## 260 9024400 0.138255 2.332 12.68906239
## 261 9269200 0.142006 2.333 13.02036506
## 262 9354400 0.143311 2.389 13.36275374
## 263 9440200 0.144625 2.391 13.70861382
## 264 9668200 0.148118 2.510 14.08038125
## 265 9718600 0.148890 2.452 14.44539156
## 266 9761400 0.149546 2.401 14.80447519
## 267 9862400 0.151093 2.399 15.16692785
## 268 10064800 0.154194 2.277 15.51810408
## 269 10140000 0.155346 2.249 15.86745711
## 270 10208200 0.156391 2.198 16.21128019
## 271 10399800 0.159326 2.094 16.54495491
## 272 10442400 0.159979 2.072 16.87642464
## 273 10482000 0.160586 2.063 17.20768017
## 274 10563800 0.161839 2.008 17.53262596
## 275 10719000 0.164217 1.873 17.84015777
## 276 10781200 0.165170 1.836 18.14332733
## 277 10846200 0.166165 1.826 18.44680237
## 278 10971800 0.168090 1.637 18.72203406
## 279 11014600 0.168745 1.638 18.99843610
## 280 11049400 0.169278 1.624 19.27338584
## 281 11122600 0.170400 1.600 19.54596198
## 282 11290600 0.172974 1.636 19.82899332
## 283 11350400 0.173890 1.629 20.11232854
## 284 11408800 0.174785 1.611 20.39381954