The Next Great One
Nikolas Hermanowycz
11/22/2020
Whether you are a die hard hockey fan or a casual viewer, the nickname: “The Great One”, has been synonymous with the legend Wayne Gretzky. Gretzky was a player whose caliber has yet to be matched even with todays “youth movement” across the NHL. At the time of his retirement in 1999, Gretzky amassed 100 points or more in 16 of his 20 seasons as a player. He held and still holds 60 NHL records; 40 in the regular season, 15 in the playoffs and 6 All-Star team records. But as mentioned…the league went through legend withdrawal in 1999, and 2 decades later some have come close! But none hold the cigar.
The goal within this report to compare/contrast a leagues worth of data, in the time period of 2 decades. Twenty years because this was the window of opportunity that Gretzky had from coming into the league in the 1970 season to leaving in 1999. Yes, that is 19 years…but those going up against Gretzky are going to need all the help they can get.
First, lets look at Gretzky’s numbers.
Gretzky_Stats <- read.csv(file.choose())
colnames(Gretzky_Stats) <- c( "Player", "Shoot", "Position", "Games Played", "Goals", "Assist", "Points", "PLus/Minus", "Penalty Minutes", "Points Per Game", "EVG", "EVP", "PPG", "PPP", "SHG", "SHP", "OTG", "GWG", "Shots", "Shooting Percentage", "TOI", "FOW%")
str(Gretzky_Stats)## 'data.frame': 1 obs. of 22 variables:
## $ Player : chr "Wayne Gretzky"
## $ Shoot : chr "L"
## $ Position : chr "C"
## $ Games Played : chr "1,487"
## $ Goals : int 894
## $ Assist : chr "1,963"
## $ Points : chr "2,857"
## $ PLus/Minus : int 520
## $ Penalty Minutes : int 577
## $ Points Per Game : num 1.92
## $ EVG : int 617
## $ EVP : chr "1,818"
## $ PPG : int 204
## $ PPP : int 890
## $ SHG : int 73
## $ SHP : int 149
## $ OTG : int 2
## $ GWG : int 91
## $ Shots : chr "5,088"
## $ Shooting Percentage: num 17.6
## $ TOI : chr "--"
## $ FOW% : int 49Now, one thing that should jump out to the viewer its the 2,857 points. For those that do not know, NHL Points are counted by the combination of Goals + Assists. Nearly 3,000 points in 20 years. Now you see why I am giving today players the edge of an extra year .
NHL_Decades_stats <- read.csv(file.choose())
colnames(NHL_Decades_stats) <- c( "Player", "Shoot", "Position", "Games Played", "Goals", "Assist", "Points", "PLus/Minus", "Penalty Minutes", "Points Per Game", "EVG", "EVP", "PPG", "PPP", "SHG", "SHP", "OTG", "GWG", "Shots", "Shooting Percentage", "TOI", "FOW%")
head(NHL_Decades_stats, n = 10L)## Player Shoot Position Games Played Goals Assist Points PLus/Minus
## 1 Sidney Crosby L C 984 462 801.00 1,263 175
## 2 Evgeni Malkin L C 907 416 660.00 1,076 73
## 3 Joe Sakic L C 586 250 412.00 662.00 104
## 4 Alex Ovechkin R L 1152 706 572.00 1,278 82
## 5 Patrick Kane L R 973 389 633.00 1,022 69
## 6 Steven Stamkos R C 803 422 410.00 832.00 44
## 7 Jaromir Jagr L R 1071 421 638.00 1,059 159
## 8 Joe Thornton L C 1500 401 1,060 1,461 189
## 9 Daniel Alfredsson R R 975 366 581.00 947.00 153
## 10 Nicklas Backstrom L C 956 243 684.00 927.00 119
## Penalty Minutes Points Per Game EVG EVP PPG PPP SHG SHP OTG GWG Shots
## 1 673 1.28 319 795 140 458 3 10 16 64 3172
## 2 960 1.19 263 662 149 409 4 5 12 73 3045
## 3 274 1.13 159 402 85 250 6 10 6 36 1968
## 4 719 1.11 442 791 260 482 4 5 23 110 5545
## 5 378 1.05 281 694 108 327 0 1 9 62 3206
## 6 499 1.04 262 528 155 297 5 7 8 61 2498
## 7 666 0.99 287 698 131 357 3 4 11 72 3333
## 8 1160 0.97 259 925 136 524 6 12 9 65 2839
## 9 420 0.97 238 565 106 344 22 38 6 57 2700
## 10 462 0.97 167 551 74 374 2 2 8 38 2034
## Shooting Percentage TOI FOW%
## 1 14.6 20:51 52.00
## 2 13.7 19:59 44.30
## 3 12.7 21:09 52.50
## 4 12.7 20:56 34.60
## 5 12.1 20:05 38.70
## 6 16.9 19:23 49.40
## 7 12.6 19:51 21.40
## 8 14.1 19:37 52.90
## 9 13.6 19:53 35.60
## 10 12.0 19:40 50.40What we are looking at above are the top 10 “point getters” in the NHL within the past 20 years. Anything jump out at you? Correct. No one is even close to that of Gretzky was, even with an extra sample year added.
(The Top Ten are shown in this form, but in the remaining chart and plots the data pulled is from all top 100 players.)
Notice that at the top of our list ‘Joe Thornton’ comes the closest of the hundreds with in the data set. Thornton has amassed 1,461 points in 1,500 games. Nearly a point per game.BUt Gretzky? Well he he closer to 2 points per game.
But perhaps there is an additional active player that may have the potential and wider spread between games played and points acquired:
Players
head( NHL_Decades_stats[,c('Player',"Games Played", 'Points','Points Per Game')], n = 10L )## Player Games Played Points Points Per Game
## 1 Sidney Crosby 984 1,263 1.28
## 2 Evgeni Malkin 907 1,076 1.19
## 3 Joe Sakic 586 662.00 1.13
## 4 Alex Ovechkin 1152 1,278 1.11
## 5 Patrick Kane 973 1,022 1.05
## 6 Steven Stamkos 803 832.00 1.04
## 7 Jaromir Jagr 1071 1,059 0.99
## 8 Joe Thornton 1500 1,461 0.97
## 9 Daniel Alfredsson 975 947.00 0.97
## 10 Nicklas Backstrom 956 927.00 0.97head( Gretzky_Stats[,c('Player',"Games Played", 'Points','Points Per Game')])## Player Games Played Points Points Per Game
## 1 Wayne Gretzky 1,487 2,857 1.92Again notice that now the best Point Per Game players are Crosby and Ovechkin via the ratio of points to games. BUt what I am referring to is the understanding that Ovechkin and Crosby have a short sample size…as they’ve only been in the league since 2005, and Joe Thornton has been in the league since 1999.
The Numbers above are good to see but we really cant get a sense of the sheer impact Gretzky had on the teams he played for. Therefore, let take note to the chart we see below:
hist(NHL_Decades_stats$`Points Per Game`, main = 'NHL Points Per Game', xlab = 'Points Per Game')
What I would like to point out is that the chart shows majority of the 100 players only accrue .8 points a game. Meaning that its likely they could gain a goal or assist in a game for their team, but not guaranteed on average. They have more assurance to gain a goal, assist or secondary assist every two games.
However, if we add Gretzky to the chart above, he not only becomes the outlier, but also contributes for a minimum of a goal per game, nearly two! (Assists arent goals, but if he has an assist per game, thus meaning a goal was scored.)
With the Addition of Gretzky
Stats_with_Gretzky <- read.csv(file.choose())
colnames(Stats_with_Gretzky) <- c( "Player", "Shoot", "Position", "Games Played", "Goals", "Assist", "Points", "PLus/Minus", "Penalty Minutes", "Points Per Game", "EVG", "EVP", "PPG", "PPP", "SHG", "SHP", "OTG", "GWG", "Shots", "Shooting Percentage", "TOI", "FOW%")
hist(Stats_with_Gretzky$`Points Per Game`, main = 'NHL Points Per Game (w/ Gretzky)', xlab = 'Points Per Game')
Notice that with the difference in adding Gretzky to the chart we can see the boost that he brings to the team he plays on. Yet! Let look at the shooting percentage, meaning of the amount of Shots you take on net…how many goals do you generate yourself:
p = plot(NHL_Decades_stats$`Games Played`, NHL_Decades_stats$`Shooting Percentage`, xlab = "Games Played", ylab = "Shooting Percentage" ) 
We notice that no matter +1,000 NHL Games, majority of the top players have a shooting percentage between 10 and 14 percent. Meaning that of the shot they take on net, they will score at most, 14% of the time. But how does this compare to Gretzkys shooting percentage?
head( Gretzky_Stats[,c('Player','Shooting Percentage')])## Player Shooting Percentage
## 1 Wayne Gretzky 17.6Wow, he truly is the great one. A whooping 17.6 percent of the time he takes a shot on net, it goes in AND couple with the 1.92 average points per game we saw earlier, it begs the questions : Will there ever be another “Great One”?
If we are to get a NEW Great one, we will have to think about A) Games Played B)Points Per Game and C) Shooting Percentage.
For a better understanding, we are looking at these 3 areas because of a few reasons. We need to look at Games Played because if a player only plays 1 game but scores 4 goals (Anthony Mantha on Oct 6, 2019) or if they even score 5 goals (Mika Zibanejad on March 5, 2019 ) then that throws their points per game off by a large margin.
We are looking at the points per game as well, because as mentioned, a player gains a point if they score or help in scoring. Meaning that they can be a positive contributor without scoring directly. Sidenote: If you ever see the buzzword “depth signing”, this primarily mean those players who contribute indirectly.Neat!
Lastly, we now turn our attention to shooting percentage which we saw briefly, but we now go into more depth. Shooting percentage is key as it show likeliness to score once a shot is placed on net. Higher shooting percentage, more goals for that player. Thus, we are looking for a player who has the following:
- An amount of games played close to Gretzky in that point in her career.
- A player who matches or comes close to Points Per Game as Gretzky
- A Player who matches a close shooting percentage that we saw in Gretzky
Lets take a Look!
Leaders in Games Played
x = order(-NHL_Decades_stats$"Games Played")
head(NHL_Decades_stats[x,c('Player',"Games Played")], n = 10L )## Player Games Played
## 70 Patrick Marleau 1568
## 8 Joe Thornton 1500
## 100 Zdeno Chara 1469
## 99 Matt Cullen 1380
## 45 Henrik Sedin 1330
## 26 Jarome Iginla 1320
## 46 Daniel Sedin 1306
## 73 Shane Doan 1291
## 83 Justin Williams 1264
## 92 Scott Hartnell 1249Okay, so what we see from above is that the most tenured players are Patrick Marleau, Joe Thornton, and Zdeno Chara. Thats good and gives us three players to hopefully find the next Great One of the 2000’s and the 2010’s. You may be asking yourself though, why did I only pull out these three? Very simple answer, these three of the ten we saw are the only players in the list that have signed a contract for the 2021 season.Within a span of 20 years, age injury and personal choice has forced many of these players to retire. However, lets take a look and see if any one of these three are going to be in the higher rankings of Points Per Game and Shooting percentage! (Remember our three indicators)
Leaders in Points per Game
x = order(-NHL_Decades_stats$"Points Per Game")
head(NHL_Decades_stats[x,c('Player',"Points Per Game", 'Games Played')], n = 10L )## Player Points Per Game Games Played
## 1 Sidney Crosby 1.28 984
## 2 Evgeni Malkin 1.19 907
## 3 Joe Sakic 1.13 586
## 4 Alex Ovechkin 1.11 1152
## 5 Patrick Kane 1.05 973
## 6 Steven Stamkos 1.04 803
## 7 Jaromir Jagr 0.99 1071
## 8 Joe Thornton 0.97 1500
## 9 Daniel Alfredsson 0.97 975
## 10 Nicklas Backstrom 0.97 956With what we have found, we see some good news and some bad. The good news is that one of our three players from the Games Played category (Joe Thornton) is within this list! However, he has slotted down to the 8th position of the players availble and now our top 3 are Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Joe Sakic.
Unfortunately, we again have run into a slight hiccup that within the 20 year time frame, Sakic has been retired for a while as well. Luckily though, Crosby and Malkin are signed on long term contracts (and on the same team). Even better, both crosby and Malkin have an acceptable Games Played count, meaning they have room for growth!
Finally, lets look at who leads the Shooting Percentage category!
Leaders In Shooting Percentage
x = order(-NHL_Decades_stats$"Shooting Percentage")
head(NHL_Decades_stats[x,c('Player','Shooting Percentage', "Points Per Game", 'Games Played')], n = 10L )## Player Shooting Percentage Points Per Game Games Played
## 48 Alex Tanguay 18.6 0.79 1088
## 78 Andrew Brunette 17.5 0.68 971
## 6 Steven Stamkos 16.9 1.04 803
## 29 Brad Marchand 15.7 0.86 751
## 1 Sidney Crosby 14.6 1.28 984
## 20 Dany Heatley 14.5 0.91 869
## 42 Milan Hejduk 14.5 0.81 938
## 62 Mike Ribeiro 14.4 0.74 1074
## 54 Thomas Vanek 14.3 0.77 1029
## 63 Daniel Briere 14.3 0.74 904Our last category hasnt yielded as much hope as the Points Per Game section we saw previously. Though we do see two, promising players that we will add to our final analysis. We see that Crosby remains in the shooting percentage, and a new commonality in Steven Stamkos!
##The Breakdown##
How do our players stack up to “The Great One”?
The_Breakdown <- read.csv(file.choose())
colnames(The_Breakdown) <- c( "Player", "Shoot", "Position", "Games-Played", "Goals", "Assist", "Points", "PLus/Minus", "Penalty Minutes", "Points Per Game", "EVG", "EVP", "PPG", "PPP", "SHG", "SHP", "OTG", "GWG", "Shots", "Shooting Percentage", "TOI", "FOW%")
The_Breakdown[,c("Player", "Shooting Percentage", "Points Per Game", "Games-Played")]## Player Shooting Percentage Points Per Game Games-Played
## 1 Wayne Gretzky 17.6 1.92 1,487
## 2 Sidney Crosby 14.6 1.28 984
## 3 Evgeni Malkin 13.7 1.19 907
## 4 Joe Sakic 12.7 1.13 586
## 5 Alex Ovechkin 12.7 1.11 1,152
## 6 Patrick Kane 12.1 1.05 973
## 7 Steven Stamkos 16.9 1.04 803
## 8 Jaromir Jagr 12.6 0.99 1,071
## 9 Joe Thornton 14.1 0.97 1,500With the numbers we see above, we have our players of the list that fit the bill to potentially replace Gretzky. We do see that Thornton remained in the top list, but upon closer inspection we also see that he actually has played MORE games than Gretzky, and is nearly a whole point per game less.
The closest player(s) who would have a hope of catching Gretzky would be Sidney Crosby and Steven Stamkos. Regretfully though, as we will see below, they have a tall hill to climb.
Shooting_Percentage = The_Breakdown$`Shooting Percentage`
Points_Per_Game = The_Breakdown$`Points Per Game`
plot(Shooting_Percentage, Points_Per_Game)
Notice that of our players categorized, they do all seem to have a positive trend. This means that as you shoot more towards the net, you are going increase your chance of enlarging your Points_Per_Game. Yet again though, we do see that Gretzky has the advantage in Shooting Percentage and Points Per Game. Stamkos has the edge over Crosby in shooting percentage at 16.9%. But Crosby has the advantage in Points per game: 1.28. However together they do have a common characteristic. See it? They have games yet to play to get to Gretzky’s total. Both Crosby and Stamkos are under the 1,000 NHL games mark.
##The Sum##
We saw a lot of data, a lot of names and a hopefully found a potential new “Great One”. Gretzky has been given the name “Great One” for a reason, and rightfully so. He towers over all active and inactive players in almost every category. Goals, Assists, Points Per Game, Shooting Percentage, Plus/Minus the lot!
But we have hope or potential in Sidney Crosby or Steven Stamkos. The two lead a category crucial to becoming the next Great one. Stamkos, having A higher shooting percentage means he is more like to directly score more goal for his team, where as Crosby holds a higher Points per Game record, meaning he is more likely to contribute all around.
The only thing we really have to do now is: wait. Wait to see if Gretzky gains a partner among hockey legends.