SGU 2020 Science or Fiction Stats
Wayne Heller
January 1, 2021
Background
The Skeptics Guide to the Universe is a weekly podcast hosted by Dr. Steven Novella. Each week during this segment of the podcast, Dr. Novella presents his panel of skeptics with 3 or 4 science-related news items, 1 of which is fiction. And each panelist must determine which is the fiction.
Year End Episode
At the end of the calendar year, Dr. Novella host a year in review episode where the panel reviews their performance at Science or Fiction.
2020 Summary - Episodes# 756 - 807
Overall Winner; Steve (66.7%)
Second Place: Cara (65%), Third Place: Evan (56.25%), Fourth Place: Jay (56%), Fifth Place: Bob (51%)
Overall, the panel guessed correct 57% of the time in 2020 compared to 56% of the time in 2019
Most solo Wins: Cara (3)
Longest Consecutive Win Streak: Cara (7) and Bob (7)
Longest Consecutive Losing Streak: Cara and Bob tied (5)
The panel performs bests when Jay answers first. 63% correct guesses. Jay was last in this category in 2019 and first in 2020. Steve, please note that Bob and Jay were asked to answer first 13 times, Cara 11 and Evan 9 putting Jay and Bob at a disadvantage compared to Evan and Cara.
Cara answered correctly 55% of the time when answering first–highest on the panel this year and last. Overall the panel as a group performed better when answering first this year compared to last.
Steve swept the panel 7 times this year compared to 4 last year.
The panel swept Steve 10 times this year compared to 8 last year.
Since 2018, the answering order of Cara, Evan, Bob and Jay has answered 86% correctly during that time - 24 correct guesses out of 28 possible and includes the most hosts sweeps (4).
NOTE: Episode 766 - the correct answer was negated in a subsequent episode due to an error in the question. A correct answer is awarded to all panelists for this episode.
Summary By Rouge:
Steve has the highest win percentage overall (66.7%) and on questions with a theme (66.7%)
Cara has the second highest win percentage overall (65%), the most solo wins (3), the longest consecutive winning streak (7) tied with Bob, the highest win percentage when answering first (55%) and is tied with Bob for highest win percentage for questions without a theme (74%) and is tied with Bob for longest consecutive losing streak (5).
Jay has the fourth highest win percentage overall (56%), second highest solo wins (2), and the panel performs best when he answers first.
Evan has the third highest win percentage overall (56.25%) and is tied with Jay for participating in the most panel sweeps (10)
Bob has the fifth highest win percentage overall (51%), is tied with Cara for highest win percentage for questions without a theme (74%) and also tied for the longest losing streak (5) and longest winning streak (7).
2020 Summary Statistics
NOTE: ALL includes contributions from Special Guest Rogues not listed
Raw data and some visuals are located in This Excel file Click the Download button on this github page.
Last Year comparison is based on Episodes 704 - 755
Overall Performance
| Panelist | 2020 | 2019 |
|---|---|---|
| ALL | 57% | 56% |
| Bob | 51% | 48% |
| Cara | 65% | 70% |
| Evan | 56% | 54% |
| Jay | 56% | 60% |
| Steve | 67% | 25% |
Performance For Segments WITH Themes
| Panelist | 2020 | 2019 |
|---|---|---|
| ALL | 51% | 55% |
| Bob | 38% | 46% |
| Cara | 59% | 73% |
| Evan | 50% | 46% |
| Jay | 59% | 64% |
| Steve | 67% | 25% |
Performance For Segments WITHOUT Themes
| Panelist | 2020 | 2019 |
|---|---|---|
| ALL | 66% | 57% |
| Bob | 74% | 50% |
| Cara | 74% | 67% |
| Evan | 67% | 65% |
| Jay | 50% | 55% |
Solo Wins
| Cara | 3 |
| Jay | 2 |
| Bob | 1 |
| TOTAL | 6 |
Longest Consecutive Winning Streak
| Bob | 7 |
| Cara | 7 |
| Evan | 6 |
| Jay | 5 |
| Steve | 2 |
Longest Consecutive Losing Streak
| Bob | 5 |
| Cara | 5 |
| Evan | 4 |
| Jay | 3 |
| Steve | 1 |
Panel Performance When Answering First
A measure of how well the panel of rogues perform based on who answers first
| Panelist | 2020 | 2019 |
|---|---|---|
| Jay | 63% | 41% |
| Cara | 60% | 72% |
| Evan | 50% | 50% |
| Bob | 46% | 71% |
Individual Panelist Performance When Answering First
A measure of an individuals performance when answering first
| Panelist | 2020 | 2019 |
|---|---|---|
| Cara | 55% | 70% |
| Evan | 44% | 36% |
| ALL | 42% | 33% |
| Jay | 38% | 23% |
| Bob | 31% | 22% |
Host Sweeps
| Host | 2020 | 2019 |
|---|---|---|
| ALL | 7 | 5 |
| Steve | 7 | 4 |
| RichardS | NA | 1 |
Panelist Sweeps
How many times a panelist has participated in a sweep of the host
| Panelist | 2020 | 2019 |
|---|---|---|
| Evan | 10 | 8 |
| Jay | 10 | 9 |
| Bob | 9 | 9 |
| Cara | 9 | 8 |
| Steve | 1 | NA |
Duo Performance
How well each pair of rouges performs when choosing a DIFFERENT answer from their peer
For example, when Cara answers differently from Bob, she is correct 54% of the time.
When Bob answers differently from Cara, he is correct 27% of the time.
| Rogue | Bob | Cara | Evan | Jay | Steve |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bob | NA | 27% | 35% | 43% | NA |
| Cara | 54% | NA | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Evan | 41% | 33% | NA | 38% | NA |
| Jay | 52% | 31% | 42% | NA | NA |
| Steve | NA | 50% | NA | NA | NA |
How well each pair of rouges performs when choosing the SAME answer as their peer
For example, when Jay and Evan pick the same answer they are correct 80% of the time.
Note: Numbers along the diagonal are the same as individual performance for the year.
| Rogue | Bob | Cara | Evan | Jay | Steve |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bob | 51% | 75% | 63% | 58% | 50% |
| Cara | 75% | 65% | 78% | 83% | 100% |
| Evan | 63% | 78% | 56% | 80% | 100% |
| Jay | 58% | 83% | 80% | 56% | 50% |
| Steve | 50% | 100% | 100% | 50% | 67% |
How Well Each Answering Order Combination Has Performed Since 2018
For each combination, the number of times this combination has occurred (frequency), the total correct answers, total possible answers, and the accuracy percentage (correct/possible) is listed below.
Answering Order Combinations with Frequency >= 3
| First | Second | Third | Fourth | Fifth | Frequency | Correct | Possible | PanelistSweeps | HostSweeps | Accuracy(%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cara | Bob | Evan | Jay | NA | 7 | 24 | 28 | 4 | 0 | 85.7 |
| Bob | Jay | Evan | Cara | NA | 5 | 15 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 75.0 |
| Evan | Bob | Jay | NA | NA | 4 | 9 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 75.0 |
| Cara | Jay | Evan | Bob | NA | 7 | 20 | 28 | 2 | 1 | 71.4 |
| Cara | Bob | Jay | Evan | NA | 4 | 11 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 68.8 |
| Evan | Bob | Jay | Cara | NA | 4 | 11 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 68.8 |
| Jay | Bob | Cara | Evan | NA | 4 | 11 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 68.8 |
| Bob | Evan | Cara | Jay | NA | 7 | 19 | 28 | 1 | 0 | 67.9 |
| Jay | Bob | Evan | NA | NA | 5 | 10 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 66.7 |
| Jay | Cara | Evan | Bob | NA | 3 | 8 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 66.7 |
| Evan | Cara | Jay | Bob | NA | 4 | 10 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 62.5 |
| Jay | Cara | Bob | Evan | NA | 3 | 7 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 58.3 |
| Jay | Evan | Cara | Bob | NA | 9 | 20 | 36 | 2 | 0 | 55.6 |
| Cara | Evan | Bob | Jay | NA | 5 | 11 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 55.0 |
| Evan | Jay | Bob | Cara | NA | 5 | 11 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 55.0 |
| Bob | Cara | Evan | Jay | NA | 4 | 8 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 50.0 |
| Evan | Bob | Cara | Jay | NA | 8 | 14 | 32 | 0 | 1 | 43.8 |
| Cara | Jay | Bob | Evan | NA | 4 | 7 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 43.8 |
| Jay | Bob | Evan | Cara | NA | 7 | 11 | 28 | 1 | 2 | 39.3 |
| Evan | Jay | Cara | Bob | NA | 3 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 33.3 |
Answering Order Combinations Full Detail
| First | Second | Third | Fourth | Fifth | Frequency | Correct | Possible | PanelistSweeps | HostSweeps | Accuracy(%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cara | Evan | Jay | Bob | NA | 2 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 100.0 |
| Bob | Cara | Jay | NA | NA | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 100.0 |
| Brian | Cara | Evan | Bob | Jay | 1 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 100.0 |
| Cara | Jay | Bob | NA | NA | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 100.0 |
| George | Steve | Jay | Cara | Evan | 1 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 100.0 |
| Richard | Jay | Cara | Evan | Bob | 1 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 100.0 |
| Cara | Bob | Evan | Jay | NA | 7 | 24 | 28 | 4 | 0 | 85.7 |
| Guest | Jay | Cara | Bob | Evan | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 80.0 |
| Guest | Jay | Cara | Evan | Bob | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 80.0 |
| Bob | Jay | Evan | Cara | NA | 5 | 15 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 75.0 |
| Evan | Bob | Jay | NA | NA | 4 | 9 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 75.0 |
| Bob | Steve | Evan | Cara | NA | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 75.0 |
| Guest | Evan | Jay | Bob | NA | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 75.0 |
| Richard | Evan | Jay | Bob | NA | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 75.0 |
| Cara | Jay | Evan | Bob | NA | 7 | 20 | 28 | 2 | 1 | 71.4 |
| Bob | Cara | Jay | Evan | George | 2 | 7 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 70.0 |
| Cara | Bob | Jay | Evan | NA | 4 | 11 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 68.8 |
| Evan | Bob | Jay | Cara | NA | 4 | 11 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 68.8 |
| Jay | Bob | Cara | Evan | NA | 4 | 11 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 68.8 |
| Bob | Evan | Cara | Jay | NA | 7 | 19 | 28 | 1 | 0 | 67.9 |
| Jay | Bob | Evan | NA | NA | 5 | 10 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 66.7 |
| Jay | Cara | Evan | Bob | NA | 3 | 8 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 66.7 |
| Bob | Jay | Cara | NA | NA | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 66.7 |
| Bob | Jay | Evan | NA | NA | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 66.7 |
| Cara | Evan | Bob | NA | NA | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 66.7 |
| Jay | Cara | Bob | NA | NA | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 66.7 |
| Jay | Evan | Bob | NA | NA | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 66.7 |
| Evan | Cara | Jay | Bob | NA | 4 | 10 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 62.5 |
| Bob | Cara | Jay | Evan | NA | 2 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 62.5 |
| Bob | Jay | Cara | Evan | NA | 2 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 62.5 |
| Evan | Cara | Bob | Jay | NA | 2 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 62.5 |
| Jay | Evan | Bob | Cara | NA | 2 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 62.5 |
| Cara | Steve | Jay | Evan | George | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 60.0 |
| Jay | Cara | Bob | Evan | NA | 3 | 7 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 58.3 |
| Jay | Evan | Cara | Bob | NA | 9 | 20 | 36 | 2 | 0 | 55.6 |
| Cara | Evan | Bob | Jay | NA | 5 | 11 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 55.0 |
| Evan | Jay | Bob | Cara | NA | 5 | 11 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 55.0 |
| Bob | Cara | Evan | Jay | NA | 4 | 8 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 50.0 |
| Evan | Jay | Bob | NA | NA | 2 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 50.0 |
| Steve | Bob | Jay | Cara | NA | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 50.0 |
| Evan | Bob | Cara | Jay | NA | 8 | 14 | 32 | 0 | 1 | 43.8 |
| Cara | Jay | Bob | Evan | NA | 4 | 7 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 43.8 |
| Evan | Jay | Cara | Bob | Marsh | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 40.0 |
| Guest | Bob | Evan | Cara | Jay | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 40.0 |
| Guest | Bob | Evan | Jay | Cara | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 40.0 |
| Guest | Evan | Bob | Cara | Jay | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 40.0 |
| Guest | Evan | Cara | Jay | Bob | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 40.0 |
| Guest | Jay | Evan | Cara | Bob | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 40.0 |
| Jay | Bob | Evan | Cara | NA | 7 | 11 | 28 | 1 | 2 | 39.3 |
| Evan | Jay | Cara | Bob | NA | 3 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 33.3 |
| Evan | Bob | Cara | NA | NA | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.3 |
| George | Bob | Steve | Cara | Jay | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 33.3 |
| Jay | Bob | Cara | NA | NA | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.3 |
| Guest | Jay | Evan | Bob | NA | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25.0 |
| Cara | Bob | Steve | Jay | George | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20.0 |
| Devon | Bob | Cara | Evan | Jay | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20.0 |
| Jay | Steve | Evan | Cara | George | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20.0 |
| Bob | Cara | Jay | Evan | Bill | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0.0 |
| Bob | Evan | Jay | Cara | NA | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0.0 |
| Bob | Evan | NA | NA | NA | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.0 |
| Bob | Jay | Cara | George | NA | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0.0 |
| George | Jay | Steve | Cara | Evan | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0.0 |
| Jay | Evan | Steve | Bob | NA | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0.0 |
| Joe | Bob | Steve | Evan | NA | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0.0 |