German Tank Problem Shiny app

Risto Hinno
April 2015

German Tank Problem app

You have to guess number of tanks produced size based on serial numbers of few tanks captured. All tanks have sequential serial number.

  • For example you have captured 5 tanks with serial numbers 73, 5, 83, 49, 25. What is actual tank production?

  • Shiny application simulates and compares different solutions

-Github repository

alt text; alt text

Models for simulation

  • Change number of tanks captured, actual tank production range and margin for model 2 and compare how good different models are:

  • Model 1, highest serial number captured = actual tank production

  • Model 2, model 1 answer +(model 1 answer * margin) = actual tank production

  • Model 3, formula originally used by allies: \[ actual\ tank\ production = max + \frac{max}{n} - 1 \] (max - maximum serial number captured; n - number of tanks captured)

Compare different models (1): residuals boxplot

Compare different models (2): residuals histogram

Have a nice tank hunt!