Football Story

During the 2019 NFL Playoffs, the Titans shocked NFL fans with their performance, specifically with their win over the Ravens and the Patriots. Other than the pure fact that the Titans lost to the Chiefs in the playoffs, keeping them from attending their first Super Bowl since 2000, another new way that the Titans excelled was within their receiver positions. Before the Titans 2019 season, a lot of fans were feeling down about the capabilities of their receivers. That all changed for the Titans offense when they drafted AJ Brown in 2019, which created one of the most exciting seasons in Titans history. One way to dissect these receiver’ performances that contributed to the history of this organization is through Estimated Points Added. Estimated Points Added (EPA) provides a deeper analysis than yards gained, and takes into account the fact that not all yards gained have equal value. For example, a five yard gained on 3rd down and three holds much more value than say five yards gained on 3rd down and eight. This fact explains a lot about the Titans’ receivers EPA’s in 2019.

As mentioned before, AJ Brown is seen as an influential player to this Titans Team, but when one looks at these five Titans receiver’s EPA’s, Tajae Sharpe’s stats appear to dramatically triumph over the others. How can this be true when AJ Brown is believed to be their star receiver? It all leads back to the fact that while Sharpe’s overall success was not greater than Brown’s, Sharpe made plays that influentially changed their field position being the 3rd down play machine he was.

In regards to the Success Rate in the red zone and EPA, AJ Brown’s EPA raises substantially from around 0.53 to around 1.3. Sharpe’s EPA also increases, but the difference between the two lessens. This instance depicts the fact that overall, AJ Brown was a more productive and efficient player throughout the season, but Sharpe made a bigger difference in changing the field position from one play to the next saving the team from having to kick on areas of the field. With Sharpe’s 25 reception in 2019, and Brown having the most yards per catch in the league and 52 receptions, Brown ultimately made a bigger difference for the team even though his EPA is lower.

Average Depth of Target (aDOT) is a statistic that calculates the depth the average pass traveled to reach its target, but it does not include the yards gained after the catch. For example, a higher aDOT can show the aggressiveness of a quarterback who is throwing longer passes which often leads to a lower completion rate of the receiver. That lower completion rate that typically results is how this statistic can indicate talent of a receiver.

AJ Brown, Tajae Sharpe, and Corey Davis all have comparable aDOTs. This is a surprising fact for Corey Davis considering his EPA was not highly competitive with neither Brown nor Sharpe. Davis appears to have received a greater number of deep passes than the amount of influential field position changes that he created. What is also interesting to note is that Sharpe had a higher catch percentage than Brown, which could have definitely factored into his ability to catch the throws that are higher in depth.

Catch Rate and aDOT can explain a lot about the story of a team’s receivers when compared. 

This graph of NFL receiver’s Cath Rate and aDOTs cannot show much about an individual player’s performance, but it does a great job at depicting the relationship between these two variables. As the aDOT increases, the players Catch Rate goes down.

In regards to Corey Davis, Tajae Sharpe, and AJ Brown this inverse relationship is shown. Between Davis and Brown, it is evident that Davis has a higher Catch Rate than Brown, but his Average Depth of Target is lower. Because a lot of the passes thrown to Brown were deeper and more aggressive, his catch rate ended up being lower. Sharpe, also followed the typical relationship between his Catch Rate and aDOT, but his stats were simply higher. Sharpe’s Catch Rate and aDOT were higher than both his teammates, showing that he had more success completing the deeper passes he received. Overall, the story of the Titans receivers is intriguing as Sharpe’s EPA and aDOT stats were higher than their 2019 star receiver AJ Brown. EPA and aDOT can tell us a lot about the talent of a team’s receivers in some areas, but there are ultimately many more factors that can help determine a receiver’s influence.