Proposal for Southwest Colorado Public Health Restrictions

ray bem
November 21, 2020

Colorado COVID-19 Cases, 2020

  • COVID-19 cases are skyrocketing
  • Local Restrictions on businesses vary
  • Population density per square mile means different transmission rates
  • Colorado is a destination state, with many vacationers/visitors from around the United States and elsewhere

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Spread Factors

  • State Health board issues guidance
  • Local Government control, sometimes at odds with State
  • For low-margin businesses like Hospitality, the fewer restrictions mean more customers permitted
  • Much of Colorado has low population density per square mile (i.e., Rural)

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Mask Mandates

  • Low perceived risk of COVID-19 infection in rural Colorado
  • State-wide mandates, coming from Denver, viewed as oppressive
  • Several counties have popular resorts (e.g., Telluride Resort in San Miguel County)
  • While perceived risk is low, popular destinations have COVID-19 brought from elsewhere

Recommendations

  • Modeling Cases against a proxy for business restrictions
  • A lag in Case increases occurs, approximately 6 to 7 weeks (on Average) after a change in Hospitality employment
  • Recommend opening employment more carefully, wait 1.5 months to assess impacts