CDC Excess deaths associated with Covid 19 report is issued ever week with weekly data. This data is disaggreagted to daily by a “spline” which produces a daily smoothed data series. The last date is 2020-10-24. In the past, revisions have occurred, but lately the series has had stability with only small revisions.

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The daily deaths adjusted for CDC Excess stop at 2020-10-24, the last date on the CDC report. Reported deaths have diverged from CDC Excess of large amount. United States should be reporting a similar increase in hospitalizations. They are not.

The above plot is repeated but with the daily reported line form so as to show the great day to day differences. The periodic waves is usually weekly with data dropping on weekends and then “catching up” through the weekdays.




The percentage of United States populations that have been infected.
##SIR Models

Using the empirical data of reported deaths, a “Susceptible”, “Infected”, and “Resolved” model is made. A “SIR” model.

Deaths are lagged 18 days - the consensus ean currently on the mean time from infection to death. An Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) of .5% is used, the consensus mean as to how many infected die. The IFR has a wide range from .1% to 1% given the age cohort, with most studies having IFR at a low value of .1% and then moving exponentially upwards with age 55 to 65 at 1% at age 70 10% and over 80 years at 20%.

The number of susceptible used to start/seed the “S” is 30% of United States population, based on past geographies experience ranging from 14% to 50%. The initial susceptible is the anticipated maximum “herd immunity threshold” level.

The growth of new infections is derived by dividing lagged deaths by the IFR of .5% assuming the infectious period lasts 12 day, which is the consensus mean in severity reports, the “I”, infected, is derived. “I” is those actively infected and are infectious. The “I” is used to derive the “R”, the resolved, and the SIR model is derived and plotted over time.

To repeat this SIR is based on reported deaths. Below the following the deaths adjusted for CDC Excess Deaths will be used to derive a SIR and then a model SIR which calibrates the latest deaths adusted for CDC excess to an assumed latest model death using a average R(0) for the entire period. For United States hat model average R(0) is currently over 2.


The SIR using the reported deaths input on a ratio basis.


The R(0) for the reported deaths based SIR. R(0) is derived from the “beta”, or how many become infected per day, and the “gamma” the rate of those no longer infected or resolved per day. Beta to gamma ratio is R(0).



The R(0) derived from reported deaths is plotted with daily reported deaths lagged 18 days. There is an obvious correlation once the lag from infection to death is considered.


Another SIR is derived using adjusted deaths for CDC EXcess deaths. The same 18 days to death and 0 IFR used.



The Infected from the SIR models above is compared to active cases. Both assume that infectious period is 12 days.



The R(0) derived from adjusted deaths SIR model is plotted with daily reported deaths. There is an obvious correlation once the 18 days lag from infection to death is considered.





A SIR model is built using an average R(0) of 1.52 for the entire period with the latest adjusted deaths for CDC excess used to calibrate the model deaths.

The I, or infections, for each SIR is shown.


The three SIR models R(0).




Three cumulative deaths versions are plotted, one the deaths adjusted for CDC Excess, one the reported deaths and the SIR model deaths which uses the unchanging/average R of .
Note the large differneces between the three.