Poland: Second Wave
George Robertson
November, 14, 2020
Cumulative Deaths
Daily Deaths
Daily deaths are plotted and then the smoothed daily deaths overlayed (all data used is provided at the end of this report). Smoothed daily deaths will be used below.
Daily New Cases
Daily new cases are plotted and the smoothed daily new cases overlayed. The smoothed daily new cases will be used below.
Large Surge in Cases
The large surge in Poland daily new cases is thought to mean there is a large increase in Covid 19, a “second wave”.
Correlation of Cases to Deaths Found
Daily new cases are scatter plotted against daily deaths.
Lagging Deaths to Cases
Death occurs after the time of initial infection and is a lagginf indicator. An increase in cases should lead in daily deaths. Daily deaths are lagged 18 days (the severity reports mean for the time required to die after becoming infected).
With daily deaths lagged 18 days, there is correlation between daily deaths lagged and daily new cases. This means cases are depicting the disease in Poland.
There is correlation between lagged daily new deaths and daily new cases.
Data
Poland data is from Our World in Data.
## date death daismd pop dia cas ncas ncassm l18 daid
## 1 2020-03-04 NA NA 11 227 1 1 NA 0.6 NA
## 2 2020-03-07 NA NA 11 227 5 4 NA 0.7 NA
## 3 2020-03-08 NA NA 11 227 6 1 NA 1.3 NA
## 4 2020-03-09 NA NA 14 227 11 5 NA 1.6 NA
## 5 2020-03-10 NA 0.0 25 227 17 6 2 1.6 NA
## 6 2020-03-11 NA 0.0 25 227 22 5 3 1.9 NA
## 7 2020-03-12 NA 0.0 42 227 31 9 4 2.1 NA
## 8 2020-03-13 1 0.1 42 227 49 18 7 3.3 1
## 9 2020-03-14 2 0.3 49 227 68 19 9 3.3 1
## 10 2020-03-15 3 0.4 57 227 104 36 14 4.1 0
## 11 2020-03-16 3 0.4 57 227 125 21 16 5.9 1
## 12 2020-03-17 4 0.6 57 227 177 52 23 7.9 1
## 13 2020-03-18 5 0.7 57 227 238 61 31 8.7 0
## 14 2020-03-19 5 0.7 57 227 287 49 37 10.3 0
## 15 2020-03-20 5 0.6 57 227 355 68 44 10.9 0
## 16 2020-03-21 5 0.4 57 227 425 70 51 13.7 0
## 17 2020-03-22 5 0.3 57 227 536 111 62 16.6 2
## 18 2020-03-23 7 0.6 57 227 634 98 73 16.7 1
## 19 2020-03-24 8 0.6 57 227 749 115 82 15.7 2
## 20 2020-03-25 10 0.7 57 227 901 152 95 18.4 4
## 21 2020-03-26 14 1.3 57 227 1051 150 109 19.7 2
## 22 2020-03-27 16 1.6 57 227 1221 170 124 19.7 0
## 23 2020-03-28 16 1.6 57 227 1389 168 138 19.1 2
## 24 2020-03-29 18 1.9 57 227 1638 249 157 18.1 4
## 25 2020-03-30 22 2.1 57 227 1862 224 175 20.0 9
## 26 2020-03-31 31 3.3 81 227 2055 193 187 21.6 2
## 27 2020-04-01 33 3.3 81 227 2311 256 201 19.9 10
## 28 2020-04-02 43 4.1 81 227 2554 243 215 18.3 14
## 29 2020-04-03 57 5.9 81 227 2946 392 246 19.3 14
## 30 2020-04-04 71 7.9 81 227 3383 437 285 19.7 8
## 31 2020-04-05 79 8.7 81 227 3627 244 284 20.0 15
## 32 2020-04-06 94 10.3 81 227 4102 475 320 20.0 13
## 33 2020-04-07 107 10.9 81 227 4413 311 337 23.1 22
## 34 2020-04-08 129 13.7 81 227 4848 435 362 25.3 30
## 35 2020-04-09 159 16.6 83 227 5205 357 379 25.0 15
## 36 2020-04-10 174 16.7 83 227 5575 370 376 26.0 7
## 37 2020-04-11 181 15.7 83 227 5955 380 367 27.9 27
## 38 2020-04-12 208 18.4 83 227 6356 401 390 28.3 24
## 39 2020-04-13 232 19.7 83 227 6674 318 367 27.1 13
## 40 2020-04-14 245 19.7 83 227 6934 260 360 22.4 18
## 41 2020-04-15 263 19.1 83 227 7202 268 336 20.0 23
## 42 2020-04-16 286 18.1 83 227 7582 380 340 20.4 28
## 43 2020-04-17 314 20.0 83 227 7918 336 335 19.4 18
## 44 2020-04-18 332 21.6 83 227 8379 461 346 17.1 15
## 45 2020-04-19 347 19.9 83 227 8742 363 341 15.6 13
## 46 2020-04-20 360 18.3 83 227 9287 545 373 15.9 20
## 47 2020-04-21 380 19.3 83 227 9593 306 380 17.9 21
## 48 2020-04-22 401 19.7 83 227 9856 263 379 17.3 25
## 49 2020-04-23 426 20.0 83 227 10169 313 370 17.4 28
## 50 2020-04-24 454 20.0 83 227 10511 342 370 16.1 40
## 51 2020-04-25 494 23.1 83 227 10892 381 359 17.6 30
## 52 2020-04-26 524 25.3 83 227 11273 381 362 18.3 11
## 53 2020-04-27 535 25.0 83 227 11617 344 333 18.3 27
## 54 2020-04-28 562 26.0 83 227 11902 285 330 18.7 34
## 55 2020-04-29 596 27.9 83 227 12218 316 337 18.6 28
## 56 2020-04-30 624 28.3 83 227 12640 422 353 17.9 20
## 57 2020-05-01 644 27.1 83 227 12877 237 338 17.9 7
## 58 2020-05-02 651 22.4 83 227 13105 228 316 15.6 13
## 59 2020-05-03 664 20.0 83 227 13375 270 300 14.4 14
## 60 2020-05-04 678 20.4 83 227 13693 318 297 12.7 20
## 61 2020-05-05 698 19.4 83 227 14006 313 301 10.7 18
## 62 2020-05-06 716 17.1 83 227 14431 425 316 11.1 17
## 63 2020-05-07 733 15.6 83 227 14740 309 300 10.1 22
## 64 2020-05-08 755 15.9 83 227 15047 307 310 10.1 21
## 65 2020-05-09 776 17.9 83 227 15366 319 323 10.9 9
## 66 2020-05-10 785 17.3 83 227 15651 285 325 9.4 15
## 67 2020-05-11 800 17.4 83 227 15996 345 329 9.4 11
## 68 2020-05-12 811 16.1 83 227 16326 330 331 9.9 28
## 69 2020-05-13 839 17.6 83 227 16921 595 356 9.7 22
## 70 2020-05-14 861 18.3 83 227 17204 283 352 9.7 22
## 71 2020-05-15 883 18.3 83 227 17615 411 367 9.6 24
## 72 2020-05-16 907 18.7 83 227 18016 401 379 9.7 8
## 73 2020-05-17 915 18.6 83 227 18257 241 372 12.4 10
## 74 2020-05-18 925 17.9 83 227 18529 272 362 11.3 11
## 75 2020-05-19 936 17.9 83 227 18885 356 366 12.3 12
## 76 2020-05-20 948 15.6 83 227 19268 383 335 13.1 14
## 77 2020-05-21 962 14.4 83 227 19739 471 362 13.3 10
## 78 2020-05-22 972 12.7 83 227 20143 404 361 13.1 10
## 79 2020-05-23 982 10.7 83 227 20619 476 372 13.0 11
## 80 2020-05-24 993 11.1 83 227 20931 312 382 13.0 3
## 81 2020-05-25 996 10.1 80 227 21326 395 400 14.0 11
## 82 2020-05-26 1007 10.1 80 227 21631 305 392 12.1 17
## 83 2020-05-27 1024 10.9 80 227 22074 443 401 12.0 4
## 84 2020-05-28 1028 9.4 80 227 22473 399 391 12.9 10
## 85 2020-05-29 1038 9.4 80 227 22825 352 383 12.9 13
## 86 2020-05-30 1051 9.9 65 227 23155 330 362 12.7 10
## 87 2020-05-31 1061 9.7 65 227 23571 416 377 11.4 3
## 88 2020-06-01 1064 9.7 65 227 23786 215 351 14.4 10
## 89 2020-06-02 1074 9.6 54 227 24165 379 362 16.0 18
## 90 2020-06-03 1092 9.7 54 227 24395 230 332 15.6 23
## 91 2020-06-04 1115 12.4 54 227 24687 292 316 15.6 2
## 92 2020-06-05 1117 11.3 54 227 25048 361 318 14.7 20
## 93 2020-06-06 1137 12.3 54 227 25419 371 323 14.7 16
## 94 2020-06-07 1153 13.1 54 227 25986 567 345 15.7 4
## 95 2020-06-08 1157 13.3 54 227 26561 575 396 13.7 9
## 96 2020-06-09 1166 13.1 54 227 27160 599 428 13.6 17
## 97 2020-06-10 1183 13.0 54 227 27560 400 452 12.7 23
## 98 2020-06-11 1206 13.0 54 227 27757 197 439 11.7 9
## 99 2020-06-12 1215 14.0 54 227 28201 444 450 12.1 7
## 100 2020-06-13 1222 12.1 54 227 28577 376 451 12.6 15
## 101 2020-06-14 1237 12.0 54 227 29017 440 433 11.6 10
## 102 2020-06-15 1247 12.9 51 227 29392 375 404 11.4 9
## 103 2020-06-16 1256 12.9 51 227 29788 396 375 11.1 16
## 104 2020-06-17 1272 12.7 51 227 30195 407 376 11.0 14
## 105 2020-06-18 1286 11.4 51 227 30701 506 421 11.3 30
## 106 2020-06-19 1316 14.4 51 227 31015 314 402 11.0 18
## 107 2020-06-20 1334 16.0 51 227 31316 301 391 9.3 12
## 108 2020-06-21 1346 15.6 51 227 31620 304 372 9.3 10
## 109 2020-06-22 1356 15.6 51 227 31931 311 363 8.4 3
## 110 2020-06-23 1359 14.7 51 227 32227 296 348 7.9 16
## 111 2020-06-24 1375 14.7 51 227 32527 300 333 8.0 21
## 112 2020-06-25 1396 15.7 51 227 32821 294 303 7.7 16
## 113 2020-06-26 1412 13.7 51 227 33119 298 301 7.9 17
## 114 2020-06-27 1429 13.6 51 227 33395 276 297 8.6 6
## 115 2020-06-28 1435 12.7 51 227 33714 319 299 7.4 3
## 116 2020-06-29 1438 11.7 51 227 33907 193 282 7.7 6
## 117 2020-06-30 1444 12.1 51 227 34154 247 275 7.1 19
## 118 2020-07-01 1463 12.6 51 227 34393 239 267 7.1 14
## 119 2020-07-02 1477 11.6 51 227 34775 382 279 7.6 15
## 120 2020-07-03 1492 11.4 51 227 35146 371 290 7.3 15
## 121 2020-07-04 1507 11.1 51 227 35405 259 287 6.9 5
## 122 2020-07-05 1512 11.0 51 227 35719 314 286 6.9 5
## 123 2020-07-06 1517 11.3 51 227 35950 231 292 6.6 4
## 124 2020-07-07 1521 11.0 51 227 36155 205 286 6.1 7
## 125 2020-07-08 1528 9.3 51 227 36412 257 288 6.6 14
## 126 2020-07-09 1542 9.3 40 227 36689 277 273 6.7 9
## 127 2020-07-10 1551 8.4 40 227 36951 262 258 7.0 11
## 128 2020-07-11 1562 7.9 40 227 37216 265 259 6.6 6
## 129 2020-07-12 1568 8.0 40 227 37521 305 257 7.4 3
## 130 2020-07-13 1571 7.7 40 227 37891 370 277 8.3 5
## 131 2020-07-14 1576 7.9 40 227 38190 299 291 8.7 12
## 132 2020-07-15 1588 8.6 40 227 38457 267 292 8.1 6
## 133 2020-07-16 1594 7.4 40 227 38780 323 299 8.6 11
## 134 2020-07-17 1605 7.7 40 227 39054 274 300 8.0 7
## 135 2020-07-18 1612 7.1 40 227 39407 353 313 8.0 6
## 136 2020-07-19 1618 7.1 40 227 39746 339 318 8.9 6
## 137 2020-07-20 1624 7.6 40 227 40104 358 316 9.3 3
## 138 2020-07-21 1627 7.3 40 227 40383 279 313 10.1 9
## 139 2020-07-22 1636 6.9 40 227 40782 399 332 11.3 6
## 140 2020-07-23 1642 6.9 40 227 41162 380 340 10.9 9
## 141 2020-07-24 1651 6.6 40 227 41580 418 361 11.0 4
## 142 2020-07-25 1655 6.1 40 227 42038 458 376 11.9 9
## 143 2020-07-26 1664 6.6 40 227 42622 584 411 10.6 7
## 144 2020-07-27 1671 6.7 40 227 43065 443 423 10.0 5
## 145 2020-07-28 1676 7.0 40 227 43402 337 431 10.1 6
## 146 2020-07-29 1682 6.6 40 227 43904 502 446 9.9 12
## 147 2020-07-30 1694 7.4 40 227 44416 512 465 10.0 15
## 148 2020-07-31 1709 8.3 40 227 45031 615 493 10.9 7
## 149 2020-08-01 1716 8.7 40 227 45688 657 521 10.7 5
## 150 2020-08-02 1721 8.1 40 227 46346 658 532 11.9 10
## 151 2020-08-03 1731 8.6 40 227 46894 548 547 11.6 1
## 152 2020-08-04 1732 8.0 40 227 47469 575 581 11.4 6
## 153 2020-08-05 1738 8.0 40 227 48149 680 606 11.7 18
## 154 2020-08-06 1756 8.9 40 227 48789 640 625 11.1 18
## 155 2020-08-07 1774 9.3 40 227 49515 726 641 10.7 13
## 156 2020-08-08 1787 10.1 40 227 50324 809 662 11.6 13
## 157 2020-08-09 1800 11.3 40 227 51167 843 689 11.6 7
## 158 2020-08-10 1807 10.9 40 227 51791 624 700 12.1 2
## 159 2020-08-11 1809 11.0 40 227 52410 619 706 11.4 12
## 160 2020-08-12 1821 11.9 40 227 52961 551 687 11.6 9
## 161 2020-08-13 1830 10.6 40 227 53676 715 698 11.1 14
## 162 2020-08-14 1844 10.0 40 227 54487 811 710 11.3 14
## 163 2020-08-15 1858 10.1 40 227 55319 832 714 11.6 11
## 164 2020-08-16 1869 9.9 40 227 56090 771 703 12.0 8
## 165 2020-08-17 1877 10.0 40 227 56684 594 699 11.7 8
## 166 2020-08-18 1885 10.9 40 227 57279 595 696 11.7 11
## 167 2020-08-19 1896 10.7 40 227 57876 597 702 11.6 17
## 168 2020-08-20 1913 11.9 40 227 58611 735 705 12.4 12
## 169 2020-08-21 1925 11.6 40 227 59378 767 699 12.1 13
## 170 2020-08-22 1938 11.4 40 227 60281 903 709 11.1 13
## 171 2020-08-23 1951 11.7 40 227 61181 900 727 9.9 4
## 172 2020-08-24 1955 11.1 40 227 61762 581 725 9.6 5
## 173 2020-08-25 1960 10.7 40 227 62310 548 719 9.9 17
## 174 2020-08-26 1977 11.6 40 227 63073 763 742 9.9 17
## 175 2020-08-27 1994 11.6 40 227 63802 729 742 9.7 16
## 176 2020-08-28 2010 12.1 40 227 64689 887 759 11.3 8
## 177 2020-08-29 2018 11.4 40 227 65480 791 743 13.0 14
## 178 2020-08-30 2032 11.6 40 227 66239 759 723 12.9 1
## 179 2020-08-31 2033 11.1 40 227 66870 631 730 13.4 6
## 180 2020-09-01 2039 11.3 38 227 67372 502 723 14.4 19
## 181 2020-09-02 2058 11.6 38 227 67922 550 693 14.3 20
## 182 2020-09-03 2078 12.0 38 227 68517 595 674 15.0 14
## 183 2020-09-04 2092 11.7 38 227 69129 612 634 13.6 8
## 184 2020-09-05 2100 11.7 38 227 69820 691 620 12.7 13
## 185 2020-09-06 2113 11.6 38 227 70387 567 593 15.3 7
## 186 2020-09-07 2120 12.4 38 227 70824 437 565 16.6 4
## 187 2020-09-08 2124 12.1 38 227 71126 302 536 17.4 12
## 188 2020-09-09 2136 11.1 38 227 71526 400 515 20.3 11
## 189 2020-09-10 2147 9.9 38 227 71947 421 490 19.9 12
## 190 2020-09-11 2159 9.6 38 227 72453 506 475 21.3 10
## 191 2020-09-12 2169 9.9 38 227 73047 594 461 23.9 13
## 192 2020-09-13 2182 9.9 38 227 73650 603 466 24.1 6
## 193 2020-09-14 2188 9.7 38 227 74152 502 475 24.9 15
## 194 2020-09-15 2203 11.3 38 227 74529 377 486 25.4 24
## 195 2020-09-16 2227 13.0 38 227 75134 605 515 25.7 10
## 196 2020-09-17 2237 12.9 38 227 75734 600 541 24.6 16
## 197 2020-09-18 2253 13.4 19 227 76571 837 588 30.3 17
## 198 2020-09-19 2270 14.4 19 227 77328 757 612 33.4 12
## 199 2020-09-20 2282 14.3 19 227 78330 1002 669 39.9 11
## 200 2020-09-21 2293 15.0 19 227 79240 910 727 46.3 5
## 201 2020-09-22 2298 13.6 19 227 79988 748 780 49.9 18
## 202 2020-09-23 2316 12.7 19 227 80699 711 795 52.6 28
## 203 2020-09-24 2344 15.3 19 227 81673 974 848 57.1 25
## 204 2020-09-25 2369 16.6 19 227 82809 1136 891 54.3 23
## 205 2020-09-26 2392 17.4 19 227 84396 1587 1010 54.9 32
## 206 2020-09-27 2424 20.3 19 227 85980 1584 1093 60.7 8
## 207 2020-09-28 2432 19.9 19 227 87330 1350 1156 63.0 15
## 208 2020-09-29 2447 21.3 19 227 88636 1306 1235 74.4 36
## 209 2020-09-30 2483 23.9 19 227 89962 1326 1323 78.9 30
## 210 2020-10-01 2513 24.1 19 227 91514 1552 1406 81.3 30
## 211 2020-10-02 2543 24.9 19 227 93481 1967 1525 82.1 27
## 212 2020-10-03 2570 25.4 19 227 95773 2292 1625 88.6 34
## 213 2020-10-04 2604 25.7 19 227 98140 2367 1737 90.6 0
## 214 2020-10-05 2604 24.6 19 227 98140 0 1544 101.6 55
## 215 2020-10-06 2659 30.3 19 227 102080 3940 1921 104.6 58
## 216 2020-10-07 2717 33.4 19 227 104316 2236 2051 118.1 75
## 217 2020-10-08 2792 39.9 19 227 107319 3003 2258 123.6 75
## 218 2020-10-09 2867 46.3 19 227 111599 4280 2588 124.1 52
## 219 2020-10-10 2919 49.9 33 227 116338 4739 2938 127.7 53
## 220 2020-10-11 2972 52.6 33 227 121638 5300 3357 142.9 32
## 221 2020-10-12 3004 57.1 33 227 125816 4178 3954 161.4 35
## 222 2020-10-13 3039 54.3 33 227 130210 4394 4019 168.4 62
## 223 2020-10-14 3101 54.9 33 227 135278 5068 4423 182.9 116
## 224 2020-10-15 3217 60.7 33 227 141804 6526 4926 192.1 91
## 225 2020-10-16 3308 63.0 33 227 149903 8099 5472 198.9 132
## 226 2020-10-17 3440 74.4 29 227 157608 7705 5896 212.4 84
## 227 2020-10-18 3524 78.9 29 227 167230 9622 6513 232.0 49
## 228 2020-10-19 3573 81.3 35 227 175766 8536 7136 241.9 41
## 229 2020-10-20 3614 82.1 35 227 183248 7482 7577 276.6 107
## 230 2020-10-21 3721 88.6 35 227 192539 9291 8180 286.4 130
## 231 2020-10-22 3851 90.6 35 227 202579 10040 8682 298.4 168
## 232 2020-10-23 4019 101.6 35 227 214686 12107 9255 310.0 153
## 233 2020-10-24 4172 104.6 71 227 228318 13632 10101 324.7 179
## 234 2020-10-25 4351 118.1 71 227 241946 13628 10674 332.9 87
## 235 2020-10-26 4438 123.6 71 227 253688 11742 11132 319.7 45
## 236 2020-10-27 4483 124.1 71 227 263929 10241 11526 0.0 132
## 237 2020-10-28 4615 127.7 71 227 280229 16300 12527 0.0 236
## 238 2020-10-29 4851 142.9 71 227 299049 18820 13781 0.0 298
## 239 2020-10-30 5149 161.4 71 227 319205 20156 14931 0.0 202
## 240 2020-10-31 5351 168.4 71 227 340834 21629 16074 0.0 280
## 241 2020-11-01 5631 182.9 71 227 362731 21897 17255 0.0 152
## 242 2020-11-02 5783 192.1 71 227 379902 17171 18031 0.0 92
## 243 2020-11-03 5875 198.9 71 227 395480 15578 18793 0.0 227
## 244 2020-11-04 6102 212.4 71 227 414844 19364 19231 0.0 373
## 245 2020-11-05 6475 232.0 71 227 439536 24692 20070 0.0 367
## 246 2020-11-06 6842 241.9 NA 227 466679 27143 21068 0.0 445
## 247 2020-11-07 7287 276.6 NA 227 493765 27086 21847 0.0 349
## 248 2020-11-08 7636 286.4 NA 227 521640 27875 22701 0.0 236
## 249 2020-11-09 7872 298.4 NA 227 546425 24785 23789 0.0 173
## 250 2020-11-10 8045 310.0 NA 227 568138 21713 24665 0.0 330
## 251 2020-11-11 8375 324.7 NA 227 593592 25454 25535 0.0 430
## 252 2020-11-12 8805 332.9 NA 227 618813 25221 25611 0.0 275
## 253 2020-11-13 9080 319.7 NA 227 641496 22683 24974 0.0 275