Lithuania: Second Wave
George Robertson
November, 11, 2020
Cumulative Deaths
Daily Deaths
Daily deaths are plotted and then the smoothed daily deaths overlayed (all data used is provided at the end of this report). Smoothed daily deaths will be used below.
Daily New Cases
Daily new cases are plotted and the smoothed daily new cases overlayed. The smoothed daily new cases will be used below.
Large Surge in Cases
The large surge in Lithuania daily new cases is thought to mean there is a large increase in Covid 19, a “second wave”.
Correlation of Cases to Deaths Found
Daily new cases are scatter plotted against daily deaths.
Lagging Deaths to Cases
Death occurs after the time of initial infection and is a lagginf indicator. An increase in cases should lead in daily deaths. Daily deaths are lagged 18 days (the severity reports mean for the time required to die after becoming infected).
With daily deaths lagged 18 days, there is no sign of correlation between daily deaths lagged and daily new cases.
There is no correlation between lagged daily new deaths and daily new cases.
Data
Lithuania data is from Our World in Data.
## date death daismd pop dia cas ncas ncassm l18 daid
## 63 2020-03-02 NA 0.0 2722291 4 1 0 0.1 0.0 NA
## 64 2020-03-03 NA 0.0 2722291 4 NA NA 0.1 0.1 NA
## 65 2020-03-04 NA 0.0 2722291 4 NA NA 0.1 0.1 NA
## 66 2020-03-05 NA 0.0 2722291 4 NA NA 0.1 0.1 NA
## 67 2020-03-06 NA 0.0 2722291 4 NA NA 0.0 0.1 NA
## 68 2020-03-07 NA 0.0 2722291 4 NA NA 0.0 0.3 NA
## 69 2020-03-08 NA 0.0 2722291 4 NA NA 0.0 0.6 NA
## 70 2020-03-09 NA 0.0 2722291 4 NA NA 0.0 0.6 NA
## 71 2020-03-10 NA 0.0 2722291 4 NA NA 0.0 0.6 NA
## 72 2020-03-11 NA 0.0 2722291 4 3 2 0.3 0.9 NA
## 73 2020-03-12 NA 0.0 2722291 4 3 0 0.3 0.9 NA
## 74 2020-03-13 NA 0.0 2722291 4 NA NA 0.3 0.9 NA
## 75 2020-03-14 NA 0.0 2722291 4 6 3 0.7 0.7 NA
## 76 2020-03-15 NA 0.0 2722291 4 9 3 1.1 0.6 NA
## 77 2020-03-16 NA 0.0 2722291 4 14 5 1.9 0.7 NA
## 78 2020-03-17 NA 0.0 2722291 4 17 3 2.3 0.6 NA
## 79 2020-03-18 NA 0.0 2722291 4 25 8 3.1 0.3 NA
## 80 2020-03-19 NA 0.0 2722291 4 33 8 4.3 0.9 NA
## 81 2020-03-20 NA 0.0 2722291 4 48 15 6.4 1.0 NA
## 82 2020-03-21 1 0.1 2722291 4 69 21 9.0 1.1 0
## 83 2020-03-22 1 0.1 2722291 4 105 36 13.7 1.0 0
## 84 2020-03-23 1 0.1 2722291 4 143 38 18.4 0.9 0
## 85 2020-03-24 1 0.1 2722291 4 179 36 23.1 1.1 1
## 86 2020-03-25 2 0.3 2722291 4 209 30 26.3 2.0 2
## 87 2020-03-26 4 0.6 2722291 4 274 65 34.4 1.6 0
## 88 2020-03-27 4 0.6 2722291 4 299 25 35.9 1.4 1
## 89 2020-03-28 5 0.6 2722291 4 358 59 41.3 1.3 2
## 90 2020-03-29 7 0.9 2722291 4 394 36 41.3 2.0 0
## 91 2020-03-30 7 0.9 2722291 4 484 90 48.7 2.4 0
## 92 2020-03-31 7 0.9 2722291 4 484 0 43.6 2.3 0
## 93 2020-04-01 7 0.7 2722291 4 533 49 46.3 1.4 1
## 94 2020-04-02 8 0.6 2722291 4 581 48 43.9 1.7 1
## 95 2020-04-03 9 0.7 2722291 4 649 68 50.0 1.9 0
## 96 2020-04-04 9 0.6 2722291 4 771 122 59.0 2.0 0
## 97 2020-04-05 9 0.3 2722291 4 771 0 53.9 1.3 4
## 98 2020-04-06 13 0.9 2722291 4 811 40 46.7 1.1 1
## 99 2020-04-07 14 1.0 2722291 4 843 32 51.3 1.0 1
## 100 2020-04-08 15 1.1 2722291 4 880 37 49.6 1.1 0
## 101 2020-04-09 15 1.0 2722291 4 912 32 47.3 0.7 0
## 102 2020-04-10 15 0.9 2722291 4 955 43 43.7 0.6 2
## 103 2020-04-11 17 1.1 2722291 4 999 44 32.6 0.9 6
## 104 2020-04-12 23 2.0 2722291 4 1053 54 40.3 1.0 1
## 105 2020-04-13 24 1.6 2722291 4 1062 9 35.9 0.7 0
## 106 2020-04-14 24 1.4 2722291 4 1070 8 32.4 0.7 0
## 107 2020-04-15 24 1.3 2722291 4 1070 0 27.1 0.7 5
## 108 2020-04-16 29 2.0 2722291 4 1091 21 25.6 0.7 3
## 109 2020-04-17 32 2.4 2722291 4 1149 58 27.7 0.7 1
## 110 2020-04-18 33 2.3 2722291 4 1239 90 34.3 0.3 0
## 111 2020-04-19 33 1.4 2722291 4 1298 59 35.0 0.4 3
## 112 2020-04-20 36 1.7 2722291 4 1326 28 37.7 0.6 1
## 113 2020-04-21 37 1.9 2722291 4 1350 24 40.0 0.6 1
## 114 2020-04-22 38 2.0 2722291 4 1370 20 42.9 0.6 0
## 115 2020-04-23 38 1.3 2722291 4 1398 28 43.9 0.6 2
## 116 2020-04-24 40 1.1 2722291 4 1410 12 37.3 0.6 0
## 117 2020-04-25 40 1.0 2722291 4 1410 0 24.4 0.6 1
## 118 2020-04-26 41 1.1 2722291 4 1426 16 18.3 0.9 0
## 119 2020-04-27 41 0.7 2722291 4 1438 12 16.0 0.7 0
## 120 2020-04-28 41 0.6 2722291 4 1449 11 14.1 0.7 3
## 121 2020-04-29 44 0.9 2722291 4 1344 -105 -3.7 0.7 1
## 122 2020-04-30 45 1.0 2722291 4 1375 31 -3.3 0.9 0
## 123 2020-05-01 45 0.7 2722291 4 1385 10 -3.6 1.3 0
## 124 2020-05-02 45 0.7 2722291 4 1399 14 -1.6 1.4 1
## 125 2020-05-03 46 0.7 2722291 4 1406 7 -2.9 0.9 0
## 126 2020-05-04 46 0.7 2722291 4 1410 4 -4.0 1.0 0
## 127 2020-05-05 46 0.7 2722291 4 1419 9 -4.3 1.0 0
## 128 2020-05-06 46 0.3 2722291 4 1423 4 11.3 1.1 2
## 129 2020-05-07 48 0.4 2722291 4 1428 5 7.6 1.0 1
## 130 2020-05-08 49 0.6 2722291 4 1433 5 6.9 0.6 0
## 131 2020-05-09 49 0.6 2722291 4 1436 3 5.3 0.7 1
## 132 2020-05-10 50 0.6 2722291 4 1444 8 5.4 0.9 0
## 133 2020-05-11 50 0.6 2722291 4 1479 35 9.9 1.0 0
## 134 2020-05-12 50 0.6 2722291 4 1485 6 9.4 1.0 0
## 135 2020-05-13 50 0.6 2722291 4 1491 6 9.7 1.0 4
## 136 2020-05-14 54 0.9 2722291 4 1505 14 11.0 1.0 0
## 137 2020-05-15 54 0.7 2722291 4 1511 6 11.1 1.0 0
## 138 2020-05-16 54 0.7 2722291 4 1523 12 12.4 0.9 1
## 139 2020-05-17 55 0.7 2722291 4 1534 11 12.9 0.7 1
## 140 2020-05-18 56 0.9 2722291 4 1541 7 8.9 0.4 3
## 141 2020-05-19 59 1.3 2722291 4 1547 6 8.9 0.4 1
## 142 2020-05-20 60 1.4 2722291 4 1562 15 10.1 0.1 0
## 143 2020-05-21 60 0.9 2722291 4 1577 15 10.3 0.1 1
## 144 2020-05-22 61 1.0 2722291 4 1594 17 11.9 0.1 0
## 145 2020-05-23 61 1.0 2722291 4 1604 10 11.6 0.1 2
## 146 2020-05-24 63 1.1 2722291 4 1616 12 11.7 0.4 0
## 147 2020-05-25 63 1.0 2722291 4 1623 7 11.7 0.4 0
## 148 2020-05-26 63 0.6 2722291 4 1635 12 12.6 0.4 2
## 149 2020-05-27 65 0.7 2722291 4 1639 4 11.0 0.6 1
## 150 2020-05-28 66 0.9 2722291 4 1647 8 10.0 0.6 2
## 151 2020-05-29 68 1.0 2722291 4 1656 9 8.9 0.7 0
## 152 2020-05-30 68 1.0 2722291 4 1662 6 8.3 0.6 2
## 153 2020-05-31 70 1.0 2722291 4 1670 8 7.7 0.3 0
## 154 2020-06-01 70 1.0 2722291 4 1675 5 7.4 0.3 0
## 155 2020-06-02 70 1.0 2722291 4 1678 3 6.1 0.3 1
## 156 2020-06-03 71 0.9 2722291 4 1682 4 6.1 0.1 0
## 157 2020-06-04 71 0.7 2722291 4 1684 2 5.3 0.1 0
## 158 2020-06-05 71 0.4 2722291 4 1687 3 4.4 0.0 0
## 159 2020-06-06 71 0.4 2722291 4 1694 7 4.6 0.1 0
## 160 2020-06-07 71 0.1 2722291 4 1705 11 5.0 0.3 0
## 161 2020-06-08 71 0.1 2722291 4 1714 9 5.6 0.3 0
## 162 2020-06-09 71 0.1 2722291 4 1720 6 6.0 0.3 1
## 163 2020-06-10 72 0.1 2722291 4 1727 7 6.4 0.3 2
## 164 2020-06-11 74 0.4 2722291 4 1733 6 7.0 0.3 0
## 165 2020-06-12 74 0.4 2722291 4 1752 19 9.3 0.3 0
## 166 2020-06-13 74 0.4 2722291 4 1756 4 8.9 0.1 1
## 167 2020-06-14 75 0.6 2722291 4 1763 7 8.3 0.0 0
## 168 2020-06-15 75 0.6 2722291 4 1768 5 7.7 0.0 1
## 169 2020-06-16 76 0.7 2722291 4 1773 5 7.6 0.1 0
## 170 2020-06-17 76 0.6 2722291 4 1776 3 7.0 0.1 0
## 171 2020-06-18 76 0.3 2722291 4 1778 2 6.4 0.1 0
## 172 2020-06-19 76 0.3 2722291 4 1784 6 4.6 0.1 0
## 173 2020-06-20 76 0.3 2722291 4 1792 8 5.1 0.1 0
## 174 2020-06-21 76 0.1 2722291 4 1795 3 4.6 0.1 0
## 175 2020-06-22 76 0.1 2722291 4 1798 3 4.3 0.1 0
## 176 2020-06-23 76 0.0 2722291 4 1801 3 4.0 0.0 1
## 177 2020-06-24 77 0.1 2722291 4 1803 2 3.9 0.0 1
## 178 2020-06-25 78 0.3 2722291 4 1804 1 3.7 0.0 0
## 179 2020-06-26 78 0.3 2722291 4 1806 2 3.1 0.0 0
## 180 2020-06-27 78 0.3 2722291 4 1808 2 2.3 0.0 0
## 181 2020-06-28 78 0.3 2722291 4 1813 5 2.6 0.0 0
## 182 2020-06-29 78 0.3 2722291 4 1816 3 2.6 0.0 0
## 183 2020-06-30 78 0.3 2722291 4 1816 0 2.1 0.0 0
## 184 2020-07-01 78 0.1 2722291 4 1817 1 2.0 0.1 0
## 185 2020-07-02 78 0.0 2722291 4 1818 1 2.0 0.1 0
## 186 2020-07-03 78 0.0 2722291 4 1825 7 2.7 0.1 1
## 187 2020-07-04 79 0.1 2722291 4 1828 3 2.9 0.1 0
## 188 2020-07-05 79 0.1 2722291 4 1831 3 2.6 0.1 0
## 189 2020-07-06 79 0.1 2722291 4 1836 5 2.9 0.1 0
## 190 2020-07-07 79 0.1 2722291 4 1841 5 3.6 0.1 0
## 191 2020-07-08 79 0.1 2722291 4 1844 3 3.9 0.0 0
## 192 2020-07-09 79 0.1 2722291 4 1854 10 5.1 0.0 0
## 193 2020-07-10 79 0.1 2722291 4 1857 3 4.6 0.0 0
## 194 2020-07-11 79 0.0 2722291 4 1861 4 4.7 0.0 0
## 195 2020-07-12 79 0.0 2722291 4 1865 4 4.9 0.0 0
## 196 2020-07-13 79 0.0 2722291 4 1869 4 4.7 0.0 0
## 197 2020-07-14 79 0.0 2722291 4 1874 5 4.7 0.0 0
## 198 2020-07-15 79 0.0 2722291 4 1875 1 4.4 0.0 0
## 199 2020-07-16 79 0.0 2722291 4 1882 7 4.0 0.0 0
## 200 2020-07-17 79 0.0 2722291 4 1902 20 6.4 0.0 0
## 201 2020-07-18 79 0.0 2722291 4 1908 6 6.7 0.0 1
## 202 2020-07-19 80 0.1 2722291 4 1915 7 7.1 0.1 0
## 203 2020-07-20 80 0.1 2722291 4 1932 17 9.0 0.1 0
## 204 2020-07-21 80 0.1 2722291 4 1947 15 10.4 0.1 0
## 205 2020-07-22 80 0.1 2722291 4 1949 2 10.6 0.1 0
## 206 2020-07-23 80 0.1 2722291 4 1960 11 11.1 0.1 0
## 207 2020-07-24 80 0.1 2722291 4 1960 0 8.3 0.1 0
## 208 2020-07-25 80 0.1 2722291 4 1986 26 11.1 0.1 0
## 209 2020-07-26 80 0.0 2722291 4 2001 15 12.3 0.0 0
## 210 2020-07-27 80 0.0 2722291 4 2008 7 10.9 0.0 0
## 211 2020-07-28 80 0.0 2722291 4 2019 11 10.3 0.0 0
## 212 2020-07-29 80 0.0 2722291 4 2027 8 11.1 0.0 0
## 213 2020-07-30 80 0.0 2722291 4 2043 16 11.9 0.0 0
## 214 2020-07-31 80 0.0 2722291 4 2062 19 14.6 0.0 0
## 215 2020-08-01 80 0.0 2722291 4 2075 13 12.7 0.0 0
## 216 2020-08-02 80 0.0 2722291 4 2093 18 13.1 0.0 0
## 217 2020-08-03 80 0.0 2722291 4 2110 17 14.6 0.1 0
## 218 2020-08-04 80 0.0 2722291 4 2120 10 14.4 0.3 0
## 219 2020-08-05 80 0.0 2722291 4 2137 17 15.7 0.4 1
## 220 2020-08-06 81 0.1 2722291 4 2147 10 14.9 0.4 0
## 221 2020-08-07 81 0.1 2722291 4 2171 24 15.6 0.6 0
## 222 2020-08-08 81 0.1 2722291 4 2194 23 17.0 0.6 0
## 223 2020-08-09 81 0.1 2722291 4 2231 37 19.7 0.6 0
## 224 2020-08-10 81 0.1 2722291 4 2252 21 20.3 0.4 0
## 225 2020-08-11 81 0.1 2722291 4 2265 13 20.7 0.4 0
## 226 2020-08-12 81 0.1 2722291 4 2283 18 20.9 0.3 0
## 227 2020-08-13 81 0.0 2722291 4 2309 26 23.1 0.3 0
## 228 2020-08-14 81 0.0 2722291 4 2330 21 22.7 0.1 0
## 229 2020-08-15 81 0.0 2722291 4 2352 22 22.6 0.1 0
## 230 2020-08-16 81 0.0 2722291 4 2386 34 22.1 0.1 0
## 231 2020-08-17 81 0.0 2722291 4 2416 30 23.4 0.1 0
## 232 2020-08-18 81 0.0 2722291 4 2436 20 24.4 0.0 0
## 233 2020-08-19 81 0.0 2722291 4 2474 38 27.3 0.0 0
## 234 2020-08-20 81 0.0 2722291 4 2496 22 26.7 0.0 1
## 235 2020-08-21 82 0.1 2722291 4 2528 32 28.3 0.0 1
## 236 2020-08-22 83 0.3 2722291 4 2564 36 30.3 0.0 1
## 237 2020-08-23 84 0.4 2722291 4 2594 30 29.7 0.0 0
## 238 2020-08-24 84 0.4 2722291 4 2635 41 31.3 0.0 1
## 239 2020-08-25 85 0.6 2722291 4 2673 38 33.9 0.0 0
## 240 2020-08-26 85 0.6 2722291 4 2694 21 31.4 0.0 0
## 241 2020-08-27 85 0.6 2722291 4 2726 32 32.9 0.1 0
## 242 2020-08-28 85 0.4 2722291 4 2762 36 33.4 0.1 1
## 243 2020-08-29 86 0.4 2722291 4 2810 48 35.1 0.1 0
## 244 2020-08-30 86 0.3 2722291 4 2839 29 35.0 0.1 0
## 245 2020-08-31 86 0.3 2722291 4 2874 35 34.1 0.1 0
## 246 2020-09-01 86 0.1 2722291 4 2906 32 33.3 0.1 0
## 247 2020-09-02 86 0.1 2722291 4 2929 23 33.6 0.1 0
## 248 2020-09-03 86 0.1 2722291 4 2958 29 33.1 0.0 0
## 249 2020-09-04 86 0.1 2722291 4 2978 20 30.9 0.0 0
## 250 2020-09-05 86 0.0 2722291 4 3004 26 27.7 0.0 0
## 251 2020-09-06 86 0.0 2722291 4 3040 36 28.7 0.0 0
## 252 2020-09-07 86 0.0 2722291 4 3083 43 29.9 0.3 0
## 253 2020-09-08 86 0.0 2722291 4 3100 17 27.7 0.3 0
## 254 2020-09-09 86 0.0 2722291 4 3131 31 28.9 0.3 0
## 255 2020-09-10 86 0.0 2722291 4 3163 32 29.3 0.6 0
## 256 2020-09-11 86 0.0 2722291 4 3199 36 31.6 0.7 0
## 257 2020-09-12 86 0.0 2722291 4 3243 44 34.1 0.7 0
## 258 2020-09-13 86 0.0 2722291 4 3296 53 36.6 0.7 1
## 259 2020-09-14 87 0.1 2722291 4 3335 39 36.0 0.4 0
## 260 2020-09-15 87 0.1 2722291 4 3386 51 40.9 0.6 0
## 261 2020-09-16 87 0.1 2722291 4 3442 56 44.4 0.7 0
## 262 2020-09-17 87 0.1 2722291 4 3442 0 39.9 0.4 0
## 263 2020-09-18 87 0.1 2722291 4 3504 62 43.6 0.3 0
## 264 2020-09-19 87 0.1 2722291 4 3565 61 46.0 1.0 0
## 265 2020-09-20 87 0.1 2722291 4 3664 99 52.6 1.3 0
## 266 2020-09-21 87 0.0 2722291 4 3744 80 58.4 1.4 0
## 267 2020-09-22 87 0.0 2722291 4 3814 70 61.1 1.4 0
## 268 2020-09-23 87 0.0 2722291 4 3859 45 59.6 1.3 0
## 269 2020-09-24 87 0.0 2722291 4 3932 73 70.0 1.3 2
## 270 2020-09-25 89 0.3 2722291 4 4070 138 80.9 1.3 0
## 271 2020-09-26 89 0.3 2722291 4 4184 114 88.4 1.0 0
## 272 2020-09-27 89 0.3 2722291 4 4295 111 90.1 1.1 2
## 273 2020-09-28 91 0.6 2722291 4 4385 90 91.6 1.1 1
## 274 2020-09-29 92 0.7 2722291 4 4490 105 96.6 1.3 0
## 275 2020-09-30 92 0.7 2722291 4 4578 88 102.7 1.4 0
## 276 2020-10-01 92 0.7 2722291 4 4693 115 108.7 1.4 0
## 277 2020-10-02 92 0.4 2722291 4 4784 91 102.0 1.4 1
## 278 2020-10-03 93 0.6 2722291 4 4956 172 110.3 1.7 1
## 279 2020-10-04 94 0.7 2722291 4 5081 125 112.3 1.6 0
## 280 2020-10-05 94 0.4 2722291 4 5185 104 114.3 2.1 0
## 281 2020-10-06 94 0.3 2722291 4 5285 100 113.6 2.0 5
## 282 2020-10-07 99 1.0 2722291 4 5366 81 112.6 2.3 2
## 283 2020-10-08 101 1.3 2722291 4 5483 117 112.9 3.0 1
## 284 2020-10-09 102 1.4 2722291 4 5625 142 120.1 3.3 1
## 285 2020-10-10 103 1.4 2722291 4 5758 133 114.6 3.3 0
## 286 2020-10-11 103 1.3 2722291 4 5963 205 126.0 3.4 0
## 287 2020-10-12 103 1.3 2722291 4 6122 159 133.9 3.6 0
## 288 2020-10-13 103 1.3 2722291 4 6248 126 137.6 4.4 3
## 289 2020-10-14 106 1.0 2722291 4 6366 118 142.9 5.1 3
## 290 2020-10-15 109 1.1 2722291 4 6505 139 146.0 4.6 1
## 291 2020-10-16 110 1.1 2722291 4 6760 255 162.1 4.9 2
## 292 2020-10-17 112 1.3 2722291 4 7041 281 183.3 4.9 1
## 293 2020-10-18 113 1.4 2722291 4 7269 228 186.6 5.4 0
## 294 2020-10-19 113 1.4 2722291 4 7521 252 199.9 5.1 0
## 295 2020-10-20 113 1.4 2722291 4 7726 205 211.1 5.0 5
## 296 2020-10-21 118 1.7 2722291 4 7928 202 223.1 5.4 2
## 297 2020-10-22 120 1.6 2722291 4 8239 311 247.7 5.9 5
## 298 2020-10-23 125 2.1 2722291 4 8663 424 271.9 5.7 1
## 299 2020-10-24 126 2.0 2722291 4 9104 441 294.7 0.0 3
## 300 2020-10-25 129 2.3 2722291 4 9578 474 329.9 0.0 5
## 301 2020-10-26 134 3.0 2722291 4 10184 606 380.4 0.0 2
## 302 2020-10-27 136 3.3 2722291 4 10949 765 460.4 0.0 5
## 303 2020-10-28 141 3.3 2722291 4 11362 413 490.6 0.0 3
## 304 2020-10-29 144 3.4 2722291 4 12138 776 557.0 0.0 6
## 305 2020-10-30 150 3.6 2722291 4 13088 950 632.1 0.0 7
## 306 2020-10-31 157 4.4 2722291 4 13823 735 674.1 0.0 8
## 307 2020-11-01 165 5.1 2722291 4 14824 1001 749.4 0.0 1
## 308 2020-11-02 166 4.6 2722291 4 15719 895 790.7 0.0 4
## 309 2020-11-03 170 4.9 2722291 4 16556 837 801.0 0.0 5
## 310 2020-11-04 175 4.9 2722291 4 17453 897 870.1 0.0 7
## 311 2020-11-05 182 5.4 2722291 4 18092 639 850.6 0.0 4
## 312 2020-11-06 186 5.1 2722291 4 19091 999 857.6 0.0 6
## 313 2020-11-07 192 5.0 2722291 4 20747 1656 989.1 0.0 11
## 314 2020-11-08 203 5.4 2722291 4 22719 1972 1127.9 0.0 4
## 315 2020-11-09 207 5.9 2722291 4 24699 1980 1282.9 0.0 3
## 316 2020-11-10 210 5.7 2722291 4 25755 1056 1314.1 0.0 3