Alpha Aim 1 Analysis

Summary and Implementation of Analysis

Abas Shkembi

November 6 2020

Outline

The data was synthesized from the AI dataset, Annual Mine Hours dataset, and noise JEM into what is now referred to as the SIC dataset

Average Injury Rates over the years. Red indicates NDL injuries; black indicates NFDL injuries. We see that the lines nearly mirror one another; thus, we decide to add the two together to have a single injury rate to reduce correlation

Mixed effects poisson models were constructed on both injury and fatality rates in a step-wise manner using five variables

Exploration of SIC Dataset

Histogram of injury rates Histogram of injury rates

A histogram of injury rates was constructed to visualize the distribution of the rates. The distribution is heavily concentrated below a rate of 5 per 100,000 FTE, and quickly thins out as the rate increases. A similar story can be said of the fatality rates, although rates are extremely/heavily concentrated about 0, thinning out immediately after that.

Histogram of fatality rates Histogram of fatality rates

These distributions follow a shape similar to that of a poisson distribution; thus, there is justification for constructing poisson models for regression. However, poisson regression requires count data as the dependent variable (but we are modelling rates). As a result, we will model the counts of the injuries and fatalities, while using an offset of the \(\frac{Annual Hours}{200,000}\) (equivalant of 100 FTE) for injuries and \(\frac{Annual Hours}{20,000,000}\) (equivalent to 10,000 FTE). Note: I am once more confused with the FTE and it’s equivalent into worker hours. I would like to figure out if these rates are what they should be…

Let’s visualize what the average noise measurements, average injury rates, and average fatal rates look like over the years. We see that noise measurements in the mining industry have a lot of variability from year to year, although there is a slight decline over time. Injury rates have a real steep and obvious decline, while fatality rates slightly decline.

Red = Coal; Green = Metal; Blue = Nonmetal

Red = Coal; Green = Metal; Blue = Nonmetal

Below are the injury rates plotted by year and separated by canvass2. Once more, the declines in rates ove time can be seen within each canvass2. There are values higher than 30 per 100 FTE, which are highlighted in red.

Injury rates separated by canvass2

Injury rates separated by canvass2

Among the fatality rates, less of a trend can be seen due to the overinflation of zeros contained within the dataset, although it still is present by the decline of higher values over time. Values higher than 50 per 10,000 FTE are highlighted in red.

Fatality rates separated by canvass2

Fatality rates separated by canvass2

Is there anything to be said about the role of noise exposure to injury and fatality rates? It is a bit unclear by the plots of

Injury rates and fatality rates by noise exposure

Injury rates and fatality rates by noise exposure

What can we say about the impacts of the Hearing Conservation Program on injury rates and noise? Let’s view if there exists a significant difference between injury and fatality rates before 2000 and after 2000.

Injury rates and fatality rates before and after HCP

Injury rates and fatality rates before and after HCP

Overall, we see that the across all canvasses, the injury and fatality rates signficantly dropped. Is the same true for noise exposure?

Average noise exposure before and after the HCP

Average noise exposure before and after the HCP

While there are slight decreases in the average noise exposures before and after the HCP, this difference is not as quite visually obvious. However, a Welch’s t-test of the average noise exposures before and after the HCP indicates a more concrete story.

Percentage of noise measurements larger than 85 dBA before and after the HCP Percentage of noise measurements larger than 85 dBA before and after the HCP

## 
##  Welch Two Sample t-test
## 
## data:  final_twa by HCP
## t = 3.4445, df = 1856.7, p-value = 0.0005849
## alternative hypothesis: true difference in means is not equal to 0
## 95 percent confidence interval:
##  0.2991018 1.0900954
## sample estimates:
##  mean in group <2000 mean in group >=2000 
##             83.75211             83.05751

The results of Welch’s t-test among the noise average means indicate that there is a statisticaly signficant lower difference after the HCP was implemented (83.06 dBA after HCP compared to 83.75 prior). Similar tests can be performed on the injury rates and the fatality rates.

## 
##  Welch Two Sample t-test
## 
## data:  rate_injuries by HCP
## t = 13.757, df = 1934.1, p-value < 2.2e-16
## alternative hypothesis: true difference in means is not equal to 0
## 95 percent confidence interval:
##  2.310144 3.078310
## sample estimates:
##  mean in group <2000 mean in group >=2000 
##             6.926904             4.232678
## 
##  Welch Two Sample t-test
## 
## data:  rate_fatal by HCP
## t = 2.8461, df = 1933.6, p-value = 0.004472
## alternative hypothesis: true difference in means is not equal to 0
## 95 percent confidence interval:
##  0.3009925 1.6351096
## sample estimates:
##  mean in group <2000 mean in group >=2000 
##             2.123769             1.155718

Yay! For both the average injury rates and the average fatality rates, there was a statistically signficant decrease before and after the HCP was implemented, similarly to the average noise exposures. Could this indicate some level of association between injury/fatality rates and the combination of noise exposures and the impacts of the hearing conservation program? Let’s perform some poisson regression to uncover exactly what effect noise exposure and the HCP had on these incident rates and get some numbers behind these ideas.

Poisson Regression

Due to the collinearity between industries within a canvass, we will be using the industries as a random effect within each of the models. Let us begin with the simplest model: noise exposure on injury rates.

Injury rates

And the fitted v. resid plot is randomly distributed about 0 And the fitted v. resid plot is randomly distributed about 0

However, we see that the residuals are not randomly distributed about 0 for both levels of HCP However, we see that the residuals are not randomly distributed about 0 for both levels of HCP

## Generalized linear mixed model fit by maximum likelihood (Laplace
##   Approximation) [glmerMod]
##  Family: poisson  ( log )
## Formula: n_injuries ~ final_twa + (1 | SIC.AI) + offset(log(offset_injuries))
##    Data: .
## 
##      AIC      BIC   logLik deviance df.resid 
##  59191.4  59208.1 -29592.7  59185.4     1934 
## 
## Scaled residuals: 
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -27.878  -1.896  -0.383   1.762  34.449 
## 
## Random effects:
##  Groups Name        Variance Std.Dev.
##  SIC.AI (Intercept) 0.1353   0.3679  
## Number of obs: 1937, groups:  SIC.AI, 80
## 
## Fixed effects:
##               Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)    
## (Intercept) -5.6135408  0.0671350  -83.62   <2e-16 ***
## final_twa    0.0868920  0.0006038  143.91   <2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Correlation of Fixed Effects:
##           (Intr)
## final_twa -0.763
## optimizer (Nelder_Mead) convergence code: 0 (OK)
## Model is nearly unidentifiable: very large eigenvalue
##  - Rescale variables?

WOW! The coefficient of noise exposure is statistically signficantally not equal to zero, AND the coefficient is positive? What could be better? The results indicate that a one decibel increase is equal to a 1.02 increase in the incident rate ratio (IRR) of injuries. In other words, a 5 decibel increase in TWA is associated with a 1.09 increase in the IRR of injuries. What if we add HCP as a variable?

And the fitted v. resid plot is randomly distributed about 0 And the fitted v. resid plot is randomly distributed about 0

The residuals by HCP are now both randomly distributed about 0 with HCP in the model The residuals by HCP are now both randomly distributed about 0 with HCP in the model

## Generalized linear mixed model fit by maximum likelihood (Laplace
##   Approximation) [glmerMod]
##  Family: poisson  ( log )
## Formula: 
## n_injuries ~ final_twa + HCP + (1 | SIC.AI) + offset(log(offset_injuries))
##    Data: .
## 
##      AIC      BIC   logLik deviance df.resid 
##  34736.4  34758.7 -17364.2  34728.4     1933 
## 
## Scaled residuals: 
##      Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max 
## -23.8424  -1.4605  -0.2966   1.3470  23.0351 
## 
## Random effects:
##  Groups Name        Variance Std.Dev.
##  SIC.AI (Intercept) 0.1226   0.3501  
## Number of obs: 1937, groups:  SIC.AI, 80
## 
## Fixed effects:
##               Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)    
## (Intercept) -1.1345997  0.0723334  -15.69   <2e-16 ***
## final_twa    0.0360550  0.0006994   51.55   <2e-16 ***
## HCP>=2000   -0.5463991  0.0035751 -152.83   <2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Correlation of Fixed Effects:
##           (Intr) fnl_tw
## final_twa -0.820       
## HCP>=2000 -0.390  0.462
## optimizer (Nelder_Mead) convergence code: 0 (OK)
## Model is nearly unidentifiable: very large eigenvalue
##  - Rescale variables?

Once more, we see some great results coming out of the inclusion of HCP in the model. For a one decibel increase in noise measurements, the IRR of injuries increases by 1.01. In other words, a 5 decibel increase in TWA is associated with a 1.07 increase in the IRR of injuries. Futhermore, the IRR descreased by 0.59 for years after the HCP was implemented, as compared to the years preceeding the implementation of the HCP.

Lastly, let us fit canvass to the model to see if there is some sort of interaction with this predictor.

The residuals are still randomly distributed about 0 The residuals are still randomly distributed about 0

## Generalized linear mixed model fit by maximum likelihood (Laplace
##   Approximation) [glmerMod]
##  Family: poisson  ( log )
## Formula: 
## n_injuries ~ final_twa + HCP + canvass2 + (1 | SIC.AI) + offset(log(offset_injuries))
##    Data: .
## 
##      AIC      BIC   logLik deviance df.resid 
##  34732.6  34766.1 -17360.3  34720.6     1931 
## 
## Scaled residuals: 
##      Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max 
## -23.8458  -1.4603  -0.2922   1.3571  23.0306 
## 
## Random effects:
##  Groups Name        Variance Std.Dev.
##  SIC.AI (Intercept) 0.1092   0.3305  
## Number of obs: 1937, groups:  SIC.AI, 80
## 
## Fixed effects:
##                    Estimate Std. Error  z value Pr(>|z|)    
## (Intercept)      -0.6619650  0.2408512   -2.748  0.00599 ** 
## final_twa         0.0360810  0.0006995   51.583  < 2e-16 ***
## HCP>=2000        -0.5463456  0.0035751 -152.819  < 2e-16 ***
## canvass2Metal    -0.6201212  0.2460158   -2.521  0.01171 *  
## canvass2Nonmetal -0.4401808  0.2382703   -1.847  0.06469 .  
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Correlation of Fixed Effects:
##             (Intr) fnl_tw HCP>=2 cnvs2M
## final_twa   -0.242                     
## HCP>=2000   -0.115  0.462              
## canvass2Mtl -0.920 -0.008 -0.003       
## cnvss2Nnmtl -0.951 -0.003 -0.002  0.932
## optimizer (Nelder_Mead) convergence code: 0 (OK)
## Model failed to converge with max|grad| = 0.0041079 (tol = 0.002, component 1)
## Model is nearly unidentifiable: very large eigenvalue
##  - Rescale variables?
## Model is nearly unidentifiable: large eigenvalue ratio
##  - Rescale variables?

Fatality Rates

And the fitted v. resid plot is more or less randomly distributed about 0 And the fitted v. resid plot is more or less randomly distributed about 0

## Generalized linear mixed model fit by maximum likelihood (Laplace
##   Approximation) [glmerMod]
##  Family: poisson  ( log )
## Formula: n_fatal ~ final_twa + (1 | SIC.AI) + offset(log(offset_fatal))
##    Data: .
## 
##      AIC      BIC   logLik deviance df.resid 
##   2394.5   2411.3  -1194.3   2388.5     1934 
## 
## Scaled residuals: 
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -2.8575 -0.4078 -0.1762 -0.0761 12.3827 
## 
## Random effects:
##  Groups Name        Variance Std.Dev.
##  SIC.AI (Intercept) 0.3899   0.6244  
## Number of obs: 1937, groups:  SIC.AI, 80
## 
## Fixed effects:
##              Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)    
## (Intercept) -5.548906   0.773520  -7.174 7.31e-13 ***
## final_twa    0.071403   0.009054   7.887 3.10e-15 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Correlation of Fixed Effects:
##           (Intr)
## final_twa -0.989
## optimizer (Nelder_Mead) convergence code: 0 (OK)
## Model is nearly unidentifiable: very large eigenvalue
##  - Rescale variables?

Even in the case of fatality rates, the coefficient of noise exposure is statistically signficantally not equal to zero. The results indicate that a one decibel increase is equal to a 1.07 increase in the incident rate ratio (IRR) of fatalities. In other words, a 5 decibel increase in TWA is associated with a 1.43 increase in the IRR of fatalities. What if we add HCP as a variable?

And the fitted v. resid plot is randomly distributed about 0 And the fitted v. resid plot is randomly distributed about 0

## Generalized linear mixed model fit by maximum likelihood (Laplace
##   Approximation) [glmerMod]
##  Family: poisson  ( log )
## Formula: n_fatal ~ final_twa + HCP + (1 | SIC.AI) + offset(log(offset_fatal))
##    Data: .
## 
##      AIC      BIC   logLik deviance df.resid 
##   2348.8   2371.1  -1170.4   2340.8     1933 
## 
## Scaled residuals: 
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -2.4889 -0.3886 -0.1769 -0.0765 10.8732 
## 
## Random effects:
##  Groups Name        Variance Std.Dev.
##  SIC.AI (Intercept) 0.4091   0.6396  
## Number of obs: 1937, groups:  SIC.AI, 80
## 
## Fixed effects:
##             Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)    
## (Intercept) -2.17984    0.92372  -2.360  0.01828 *  
## final_twa    0.03316    0.01080   3.071  0.00213 ** 
## HCP>=2000   -0.38074    0.05564  -6.843 7.78e-12 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Correlation of Fixed Effects:
##           (Intr) fnl_tw
## final_twa -0.992       
## HCP>=2000 -0.523  0.512
## optimizer (Nelder_Mead) convergence code: 0 (OK)
## Model is nearly unidentifiable: very large eigenvalue
##  - Rescale variables?

The model with HCP for fatality rates looks similar to that from injury rates For a one decibel increase in noise measurements, the IRR of fatalities increases by 1.03. In other words, a 5 decibel increase in TWA is associated with a 1.18 increase in the IRR of fatalities. Futhermore, the IRR descreased by 0.68 for years after the HCP was implemented, as compared to the years preceeding the implementation of the HCP.

Lastly, let us fit canvass to the model to see if there is some sort of interaction with this predictor.

The residuals look the same as the other plots The residuals look the same as the other plots

## Generalized linear mixed model fit by maximum likelihood (Laplace
##   Approximation) [glmerMod]
##  Family: poisson  ( log )
## Formula: 
## n_fatal ~ final_twa + HCP + canvass2 + (1 | SIC.AI) + offset(log(offset_fatal))
##    Data: .
## 
##      AIC      BIC   logLik deviance df.resid 
##   2347.2   2380.6  -1167.6   2335.2     1931 
## 
## Scaled residuals: 
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -2.4852 -0.3866 -0.1750 -0.0761 10.7825 
## 
## Random effects:
##  Groups Name        Variance Std.Dev.
##  SIC.AI (Intercept) 0.3425   0.5852  
## Number of obs: 1937, groups:  SIC.AI, 80
## 
## Fixed effects:
##                  Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)    
## (Intercept)      -1.32626    1.00429  -1.321  0.18664    
## final_twa         0.03526    0.01090   3.236  0.00121 ** 
## HCP>=2000        -0.37472    0.05580  -6.716 1.87e-11 ***
## canvass2Metal    -1.13874    0.48094  -2.368  0.01790 *  
## canvass2Nonmetal -1.05227    0.44539  -2.363  0.01815 *  
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Correlation of Fixed Effects:
##             (Intr) fnl_tw HCP>=2 cnvs2M
## final_twa   -0.905                     
## HCP>=2000   -0.479  0.516              
## canvass2Mtl -0.320 -0.065 -0.034       
## cnvss2Nnmtl -0.383 -0.028 -0.019  0.862
## optimizer (Nelder_Mead) convergence code: 0 (OK)
## Model is nearly unidentifiable: very large eigenvalue
##  - Rescale variables?

An interesting result

What if we interact the HCP variable with noise exposure? What can we learn?

## Generalized linear mixed model fit by maximum likelihood (Laplace
##   Approximation) [glmerMod]
##  Family: poisson  ( log )
## Formula: 
## n_injuries ~ final_twa * HCP + canvass2 + (1 | SIC.AI) + offset(log(offset_injuries))
##    Data: .
## 
##      AIC      BIC   logLik deviance df.resid 
##  34640.9  34679.9 -17313.5  34626.9     1930 
## 
## Scaled residuals: 
##      Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max 
## -24.3229  -1.4758  -0.3026   1.3284  22.7153 
## 
## Random effects:
##  Groups Name        Variance Std.Dev.
##  SIC.AI (Intercept) 0.1084   0.3292  
## Number of obs: 1937, groups:  SIC.AI, 80
## 
## Fixed effects:
##                       Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)    
## (Intercept)         -0.1590917  0.2455638  -0.648   0.5171    
## final_twa            0.0301218  0.0009295  32.406   <2e-16 ***
## HCP>=2000           -1.5362498  0.1020103 -15.060   <2e-16 ***
## canvass2Metal       -0.6222150  0.2451688  -2.538   0.0112 *  
## canvass2Nonmetal    -0.4465347  0.2374467  -1.881   0.0600 .  
## final_twa:HCP>=2000  0.0119773  0.0012334   9.711   <2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Correlation of Fixed Effects:
##             (Intr) fnl_tw HCP>=2 cnvs2M cnvs2N
## final_twa   -0.317                            
## HCP>=2000   -0.215  0.674                     
## canvass2Mtl -0.899 -0.005  0.001              
## cnvss2Nnmtl -0.930  0.000  0.003  0.932       
## f_:HCP>=200  0.212 -0.663 -0.999 -0.001 -0.003
## optimizer (Nelder_Mead) convergence code: 0 (OK)
## Model failed to converge with max|grad| = 0.0657948 (tol = 0.002, component 1)
## Model is nearly unidentifiable: very large eigenvalue
##  - Rescale variables?
## Model is nearly unidentifiable: large eigenvalue ratio
##  - Rescale variables?
## Generalized linear mixed model fit by maximum likelihood (Laplace
##   Approximation) [glmerMod]
##  Family: poisson  ( log )
## Formula: 
## n_fatal ~ final_twa * HCP + canvass2 + (1 | SIC.AI) + offset(log(offset_fatal))
##    Data: .
## 
##      AIC      BIC   logLik deviance df.resid 
##   2345.8   2384.7  -1165.9   2331.8     1930 
## 
## Scaled residuals: 
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -2.5903 -0.3807 -0.1760 -0.0761 10.8261 
## 
## Random effects:
##  Groups Name        Variance Std.Dev.
##  SIC.AI (Intercept) 0.3346   0.5784  
## Number of obs: 1937, groups:  SIC.AI, 80
## 
## Fixed effects:
##                     Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)    
## (Intercept)         -2.87578    1.30507  -2.204 0.027556 *  
## final_twa            0.05363    0.01473   3.642 0.000271 ***
## HCP>=2000            2.49610    1.54589   1.615 0.106382    
## canvass2Metal       -1.11971    0.47605  -2.352 0.018669 *  
## canvass2Nonmetal    -1.03205    0.44079  -2.341 0.019212 *  
## final_twa:HCP>=2000 -0.03476    0.01871  -1.858 0.063217 .  
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Correlation of Fixed Effects:
##             (Intr) fnl_tw HCP>=2 cnvs2M cnvs2N
## final_twa   -0.946                            
## HCP>=2000   -0.642  0.674                     
## canvass2Mtl -0.251 -0.040  0.016              
## cnvss2Nnmtl -0.304 -0.007  0.023  0.861       
## f_:HCP>=200  0.628 -0.660 -0.999 -0.017 -0.023
## optimizer (Nelder_Mead) convergence code: 0 (OK)
## Model failed to converge with max|grad| = 0.0063242 (tol = 0.002, component 1)
## Model is nearly unidentifiable: very large eigenvalue
##  - Rescale variables?
## Model is nearly unidentifiable: large eigenvalue ratio
##  - Rescale variables?

Year as a predictor

## Generalized linear mixed model fit by maximum likelihood (Laplace
##   Approximation) [glmerMod]
##  Family: poisson  ( log )
## Formula: 
## n_injuries ~ final_twa + Year + (1 | SIC.AI) + offset(log(offset_injuries))
##    Data: .
## 
##      AIC      BIC   logLik deviance df.resid 
##  33278.8  33301.0 -16635.4  33270.8     1933 
## 
## Scaled residuals: 
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -40.393  -1.292  -0.159   1.368  18.760 
## 
## Random effects:
##  Groups Name        Variance Std.Dev.
##  SIC.AI (Intercept) 0.131    0.3619  
## Number of obs: 1937, groups:  SIC.AI, 80
## 
## Fixed effects:
##               Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)    
## (Intercept) 66.1930991  0.4586966   144.3   <2e-16 ***
## final_twa    0.0195568  0.0007608    25.7   <2e-16 ***
## Year        -0.0331355  0.0002093  -158.4   <2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Correlation of Fixed Effects:
##           (Intr) fnl_tw
## final_twa -0.656       
## Year      -0.989  0.568
## optimizer (Nelder_Mead) convergence code: 0 (OK)
## Model failed to converge with max|grad| = 0.0623875 (tol = 0.002, component 1)
## Model is nearly unidentifiable: very large eigenvalue
##  - Rescale variables?
## Model is nearly unidentifiable: large eigenvalue ratio
##  - Rescale variables?
## Generalized linear mixed model fit by maximum likelihood (Laplace
##   Approximation) [glmerMod]
##  Family: poisson  ( log )
## Formula: 
## n_injuries ~ final_twa + Year + canvass2 + (1 | SIC.AI) + offset(log(offset_injuries))
##    Data: .
## 
##      AIC      BIC   logLik deviance df.resid 
##  33275.4  33308.8 -16631.7  33263.4     1931 
## 
## Scaled residuals: 
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -40.395  -1.292  -0.159   1.365  18.760 
## 
## Random effects:
##  Groups Name        Variance Std.Dev.
##  SIC.AI (Intercept) 0.1176   0.343   
## Number of obs: 1937, groups:  SIC.AI, 80
## 
## Fixed effects:
##                    Estimate Std. Error  z value Pr(>|z|)    
## (Intercept)      66.6767977  0.5168422  129.008   <2e-16 ***
## final_twa         0.0195833  0.0007610   25.733   <2e-16 ***
## Year             -0.0331322  0.0002093 -158.276   <2e-16 ***
## canvass2Metal    -0.6350735  0.2552916   -2.488   0.0129 *  
## canvass2Nonmetal -0.4591329  0.2473421   -1.856   0.0634 .  
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Correlation of Fixed Effects:
##             (Intr) fnl_tw Year   cnvs2M
## final_twa   -0.581                     
## Year        -0.877  0.568              
## canvass2Mtl -0.443 -0.007 -0.003       
## cnvss2Nnmtl -0.459 -0.003 -0.002  0.932
## optimizer (Nelder_Mead) convergence code: 0 (OK)
## Model failed to converge with max|grad| = 0.0742931 (tol = 0.002, component 1)
## Model is nearly unidentifiable: very large eigenvalue
##  - Rescale variables?
## Model is nearly unidentifiable: large eigenvalue ratio
##  - Rescale variables?
## Generalized linear mixed model fit by maximum likelihood (Laplace
##   Approximation) [glmerMod]
##  Family: poisson  ( log )
## Formula: n_fatal ~ final_twa + Year + (1 | SIC.AI) + offset(log(offset_fatal))
##    Data: .
## 
##      AIC      BIC   logLik deviance df.resid 
##   2300.5   2322.8  -1146.3   2292.5     1933 
## 
## Scaled residuals: 
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -2.4468 -0.3749 -0.1797 -0.0733  9.6200 
## 
## Random effects:
##  Groups Name        Variance Std.Dev.
##  SIC.AI (Intercept) 0.4518   0.6721  
## Number of obs: 1937, groups:  SIC.AI, 80
## 
## Fixed effects:
##               Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)    
## (Intercept) 65.6324711  1.4964810  43.858   <2e-16 ***
## final_twa    0.0012618  0.0095534   0.132    0.895    
## Year        -0.0327034  0.0005867 -55.741   <2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Correlation of Fixed Effects:
##           (Intr) fnl_tw
## final_twa -0.637       
## Year      -0.845  0.134
## optimizer (Nelder_Mead) convergence code: 0 (OK)
## Model failed to converge with max|grad| = 0.218349 (tol = 0.002, component 1)
## Model is nearly unidentifiable: very large eigenvalue
##  - Rescale variables?
## Model is nearly unidentifiable: large eigenvalue ratio
##  - Rescale variables?
## Generalized linear mixed model fit by maximum likelihood (Laplace
##   Approximation) [glmerMod]
##  Family: poisson  ( log )
## Formula: 
## n_fatal ~ final_twa + Year + canvass2 + (1 | SIC.AI) + offset(log(offset_fatal))
##    Data: .
## 
##      AIC      BIC   logLik deviance df.resid 
##   2299.6   2333.0  -1143.8   2287.6     1931 
## 
## Scaled residuals: 
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -2.4469 -0.3740 -0.1779 -0.0726  9.5934 
## 
## Random effects:
##  Groups Name        Variance Std.Dev.
##  SIC.AI (Intercept) 0.3886   0.6234  
## Number of obs: 1937, groups:  SIC.AI, 80
## 
## Fixed effects:
##                    Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)    
## (Intercept)      65.8430208  1.5663506  42.036   <2e-16 ***
## final_twa         0.0032309  0.0096049   0.336   0.7366    
## Year             -0.0323792  0.0005868 -55.175   <2e-16 ***
## canvass2Metal    -1.1009347  0.5082533  -2.166   0.0303 *  
## canvass2Nonmetal -1.0504217  0.4720093  -2.225   0.0261 *  
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Correlation of Fixed Effects:
##             (Intr) fnl_tw Year   cnvs2M
## final_twa   -0.607                     
## Year        -0.815  0.134              
## canvass2Mtl -0.247 -0.040  0.011       
## cnvss2Nnmtl -0.290 -0.012  0.024  0.866
## optimizer (Nelder_Mead) convergence code: 0 (OK)
## Model failed to converge with max|grad| = 0.232036 (tol = 0.002, component 1)
## Model is nearly unidentifiable: very large eigenvalue
##  - Rescale variables?
## Model is nearly unidentifiable: large eigenvalue ratio
##  - Rescale variables?