Sweden Current Covid 19 Status
Is There a Covid 19 Surge, a ‘Second Wave’?
George Robertson
04 November, 2020
Conclusion:
There is no Covid 19 surge underway in Sweden, no “second wave”.
Covid 19 to date has reached an effective “herd immunity threshold”, or at least a long lasting steady R(0) such that deaths have plateued showing an effective end of the epidemic.
However much notice has been given to a 700% surge in daily new cases, which has it a given that a Covid-19 surge is underway.
Excess Deaths
StatisticS Sweden provides daily a report on deaths for any cause. The average of daily deaths from 2015 to 2019 is calculated. The daily deaths for any cause is netted against the average - “excess deaths” for 2020.
The excess deaths are then used to qualify the Swedish Covid 19 deaths.
The excess deaths are plotted.
The excess deaths have large daily variance. The deaths are smoothed with a 10 day moving average, then values are set to be at least greater than “0”.
The smoothed excess deaths is overlayed the scatter of excess deaths.
Daily Reported Deaths
The smoothed excess deaths are compared to the reported deaths.
The Swedish data on Covid 19 deaths is shown to have integrity by comparing it to the cumulative dauly excess deaths.
The above excess and reported deaths are scatter plotted. There is obvious high corrrelation.
Daily Deaths
Daily deaths are plotted and then the smoothed daily deaths overlayed (all data used is provided at the end of this report). Smoothed daily deaths will be used below.
#### New Daily Cases
Daily new cases are plotted and the smoothed daily new cases overlayed. The smoothed daily new cases will be used below.
#### Large Surge in Cases
The large surge in Sweden daily new cases is thought to mean there is a large increase in Covid 19, a “second wave”.
#### No Correlation of Cases to Deaths
There is no correlation of new daily cases to daily deaths.
Daily new cases are scatter plotted against daily deaths, showing there is no relationship.
#### Lagging Deaths to Cases
Death occurs some time after the time of initial infection. So it is expected that new daily increase in cases is a precursor for increase in daily deaths. The daily deaths is lagged 18 days (the mean for most severity reports for the time required to die after becoming infected).
With this lag in daily deaths, there is no sign of correlation between daily deaths lagged to daily new cases.
The surge in daily new cases began in the beginning of September and would have caused a surge in daily deaths well before ‘r Sys.Date()-18’.
This has not occurred.
There is no correlation between lagged daily new deaths and daily new cases.
To have the implied number of daily new infections derived from daily lagged deaths to be in the same scale as the daily new cases, a 9% Infection Fatlaity Rate (IFR) is applied by dividing the deaths by 9%. (The 9% IFR is arbitrary selected so as to have max daily implied new infections in the same ballpark as daily new cases.)
The daily deaths used to derive these infections is lagged 18 days, matching the mean of most severity reports to date.
Even with this adjustment there is no correlation to daily new cases.
The above shows there is no correlation between change in cases and change in deaths.
If deaths are lagged by 18 days (most severity meta data on Covid 19 have time to death between 5 to 28 days with a mean of 18 days) there is no correlation between this adjusted change in deaths and change in cases.
While it is possible the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) may have dropped from .5% to .2% or even lower, which indicates that the level of infections has increased substantially, to have the scale match the scale of cases a 9% IFR is required, an increase. This indicates that the testing is still very small. Even then there is no correlation between change in cases and change of deaths.
The number of tests given, while obviously greatly increased since September, with the bias of who is tested, and that the tests are not given “blind”, results in new cases not providing statisitically significant information on the current status of Covid 19 in Sweden.
The testing must be administered in normal blind protocal and in geographical dispersed way to be otherwise.
Data
The data used is provided. Data on Swedish excess deaths is from Statistics Sweden. The death data is from Our World in Data.
## death daismd ncassm e2020 avge xcess v cumx l18
## 2020-03-02 0 0 2 238 277 -38.6 0.00 0 3
## 2020-03-03 0 0 3 261 291 -30.2 0.00 0 4
## 2020-03-04 0 0 4 289 289 0.4 0.00 0 5
## 2020-03-05 0 0 9 281 278 2.6 0.00 0 6
## 2020-03-06 0 0 12 251 289 -38.4 0.00 0 8
## 2020-03-07 0 0 19 266 273 -7.2 0.00 0 10
## 2020-03-08 0 0 24 240 265 -25.2 0.00 0 13
## 2020-03-09 0 0 30 248 276 -28.2 0.00 0 16
## 2020-03-10 0 0 44 257 271 -13.8 0.00 0 19
## 2020-03-11 0 0 56 234 263 -28.6 0.00 0 23
## 2020-03-12 11 2 80 258 268 -10.0 0.00 0 27
## 2020-03-13 11 2 98 243 271 -28.4 0.00 0 32
## 2020-03-14 12 2 111 246 265 -18.8 0.00 0 36
## 2020-03-15 13 2 116 244 273 -29.2 0.00 0 40
## 2020-03-16 15 2 120 293 268 24.8 0.00 0 46
## 2020-03-17 17 2 117 266 273 -6.8 0.00 0 53
## 2020-03-18 18 3 120 257 258 -0.6 0.00 0 58
## 2020-03-19 24 2 113 235 260 -24.6 3.74 4 64
## 2020-03-20 31 3 112 279 267 12.4 10.26 14 71
## 2020-03-21 40 4 116 264 259 5.2 15.21 29 76
## 2020-03-22 48 5 125 270 259 10.6 17.78 47 85
## 2020-03-23 59 6 132 298 256 41.6 20.10 67 87
## 2020-03-24 70 8 146 281 254 26.8 23.93 91 89
## 2020-03-25 91 10 162 294 238 55.6 30.29 121 93
## 2020-03-26 113 13 186 304 265 39.0 35.52 157 95
## 2020-03-27 144 16 207 294 264 30.4 40.67 198 94
## 2020-03-28 176 19 233 268 259 8.6 46.64 244 95
## 2020-03-29 211 23 256 301 258 42.8 53.53 298 95
## 2020-03-30 249 27 280 338 266 72.2 57.10 355 99
## 2020-03-31 294 32 313 309 259 50.0 60.39 415 98
## 2020-04-01 342 36 348 328 259 68.8 68.23 483 95
## 2020-04-02 395 40 373 369 266 102.8 75.78 559 94
## 2020-04-03 465 46 411 364 261 103.4 84.22 643 94
## 2020-04-04 545 53 445 313 263 50.4 91.87 735 90
## 2020-04-05 615 58 453 361 251 110.0 98.27 834 84
## 2020-04-06 700 64 461 369 253 116.2 105.21 939 81
## 2020-04-07 790 71 457 344 270 73.8 108.27 1047 82
## 2020-04-08 874 76 495 393 247 146.4 107.98 1155 80
## 2020-04-09 989 85 519 364 242 121.6 110.13 1265 78
## 2020-04-10 1075 87 532 376 247 128.6 114.88 1380 76
## 2020-04-11 1165 89 511 366 237 129.0 118.54 1499 79
## 2020-04-12 1267 93 516 357 253 103.8 121.06 1620 80
## 2020-04-13 1364 95 534 354 257 96.6 119.62 1739 79
## 2020-04-14 1448 94 541 353 253 100.2 115.24 1854 78
## 2020-04-15 1540 95 504 398 243 155.2 109.89 1964 78
## 2020-04-16 1655 95 497 398 254 144.2 103.85 2068 78
## 2020-04-17 1766 99 494 358 262 96.2 100.20 2168 79
## 2020-04-18 1849 98 527 338 243 95.2 98.18 2267 78
## 2020-04-19 1935 95 547 326 241 85.2 95.34 2362 76
## 2020-04-20 2022 94 536 310 252 58.0 89.74 2452 76
## 2020-04-21 2107 94 539 332 253 78.8 82.86 2535 74
## 2020-04-22 2169 90 572 332 251 81.0 77.83 2612 73
## 2020-04-23 2246 84 589 325 246 79.0 76.22 2689 73
## 2020-04-24 2332 81 608 312 251 61.0 76.27 2765 70
## 2020-04-25 2421 82 621 331 249 82.4 77.72 2843 69
## 2020-04-26 2494 80 613 325 246 79.4 81.34 2924 65
## 2020-04-27 2568 78 600 300 240 60.4 82.28 3006 60
## 2020-04-28 2642 76 615 335 236 98.8 80.68 3087 60
## 2020-04-29 2725 79 620 322 239 82.6 81.26 3168 57
## 2020-04-30 2808 80 631 319 229 89.6 82.15 3250 54
## 2020-05-01 2886 79 613 360 240 119.6 82.77 3333 54
## 2020-05-02 2964 78 578 296 237 59.0 85.34 3418 51
## 2020-05-03 3037 78 553 306 237 69.0 85.40 3504 51
## 2020-05-04 3112 78 547 331 248 82.6 82.08 3586 52
## 2020-05-05 3196 79 535 309 230 78.6 79.68 3666 52
## 2020-05-06 3268 78 523 325 229 95.6 77.15 3743 53
## 2020-05-07 3341 76 515 328 232 95.6 75.32 3818 52
## 2020-05-08 3421 76 536 294 229 64.8 74.28 3892 49
## 2020-05-09 3481 74 560 284 234 50.2 71.76 3964 47
## 2020-05-10 3549 73 590 311 237 74.0 68.63 4033 45
## 2020-05-11 3622 73 593 319 234 84.6 63.81 4096 43
## 2020-05-12 3687 70 590 290 233 57.4 58.57 4155 41
## 2020-05-13 3748 69 604 284 234 49.8 56.98 4212 39
## 2020-05-14 3798 65 597 275 224 51.4 56.79 4269 39
## 2020-05-15 3844 60 579 275 228 47.2 55.38 4324 39
## 2020-05-16 3902 60 577 266 235 30.6 52.10 4376 40
## 2020-05-17 3950 57 556 278 222 55.8 50.49 4427 38
## 2020-05-18 4003 54 553 302 229 72.8 51.50 4478 39
## 2020-05-19 4062 54 549 259 221 38.4 50.60 4529 38
## 2020-05-20 4103 51 537 278 220 57.6 48.50 4577 37
## 2020-05-21 4155 51 552 249 214 35.4 46.24 4624 35
## 2020-05-22 4209 52 546 292 218 74.4 43.69 4667 35
## 2020-05-23 4265 52 523 270 217 53.0 37.65 4705 34
## 2020-05-24 4320 53 530 268 238 30.2 31.40 4736 36
## 2020-05-25 4364 52 523 242 216 26.4 27.72 4764 35
## 2020-05-26 4406 49 531 225 219 6.2 25.70 4790 34
## 2020-05-27 4434 47 543 245 216 29.2 24.00 4814 34
## 2020-05-28 4472 45 542 216 237 -21.4 22.35 4836 34
## 2020-05-29 4512 43 565 230 222 7.6 21.62 4858 32
## 2020-05-30 4553 41 600 242 227 14.8 19.61 4877 32
## 2020-05-31 4592 39 604 256 218 37.8 20.24 4898 31
## 2020-06-01 4638 39 612 264 226 38.0 21.92 4920 30
## 2020-06-02 4677 39 634 269 213 56.4 24.05 4944 30
## 2020-06-03 4713 40 656 254 242 12.2 26.19 4970 29
## 2020-06-04 4741 38 691 227 223 4.2 27.21 4997 29
## 2020-06-05 4784 39 729 269 228 41.0 29.81 5027 27
## 2020-06-06 4821 38 782 233 205 28.0 31.38 5058 27
## 2020-06-07 4850 37 832 234 212 22.4 29.67 5088 25
## 2020-06-08 4883 35 860 231 224 6.6 28.74 5117 24
## 2020-06-09 4921 35 864 258 222 36.2 29.23 5146 22
## 2020-06-10 4954 34 870 278 210 68.4 28.16 5174 20
## 2020-06-11 4994 36 925 243 204 38.8 27.12 5201 20
## 2020-06-12 5029 35 962 244 223 21.4 27.61 5229 19
## 2020-06-13 5058 34 988 255 226 28.6 29.65 5258 18
## 2020-06-14 5091 34 1024 212 214 -2.4 29.31 5288 17
## 2020-06-15 5118 34 1018 247 221 26.2 25.02 5313 16
## 2020-06-16 5148 32 1019 236 214 22.0 20.13 5333 16
## 2020-06-17 5176 32 1058 261 223 38.2 17.26 5350 16
## 2020-06-18 5208 31 1060 255 223 31.6 15.80 5366 14
## 2020-06-19 5237 30 1089 222 218 4.4 15.32 5381 14
## 2020-06-20 5267 30 1072 234 220 14.4 15.78 5397 13
## 2020-06-21 5296 29 1024 213 218 -5.0 14.62 5412 12
## 2020-06-22 5318 29 1010 227 219 7.8 12.90 5424 12
## 2020-06-23 5338 27 1027 219 206 13.0 13.53 5438 13
## 2020-06-24 5363 27 1041 226 222 3.6 13.44 5451 12
## 2020-06-25 5385 25 1076 256 227 29.4 11.88 5463 12
## 2020-06-26 5408 24 1045 222 226 -4.4 12.22 5476 12
## 2020-06-27 5419 22 1044 249 219 30.2 12.99 5489 11
## 2020-06-28 5433 20 1052 270 218 52.2 11.94 5500 11
## 2020-06-29 5456 20 1066 198 216 -18.0 10.77 5511 9
## 2020-06-30 5472 19 1055 228 222 5.6 8.30 5520 8
## 2020-07-01 5492 18 983 240 229 10.6 6.12 5526 8
## 2020-07-02 5507 17 838 238 230 7.6 4.01 5530 8
## 2020-07-03 5522 16 754 218 226 -7.8 0.00 5530 7
## 2020-07-04 5530 16 681 230 229 1.0 0.00 5530 7
## 2020-07-05 5545 16 625 211 228 -17.4 4.14 5534 7
## 2020-07-06 5554 14 611 228 229 -1.2 3.31 5537 7
## 2020-07-07 5569 14 543 213 228 -15.2 0.07 5537 6
## 2020-07-08 5581 13 468 218 220 -1.8 0.00 5537 5
## 2020-07-09 5592 12 446 260 207 53.0 0.00 5537 4
## 2020-07-10 5607 12 396 235 215 19.6 0.00 5537 4
## 2020-07-11 5621 13 349 211 231 -20.0 0.00 5537 4
## 2020-07-12 5631 12 341 206 233 -26.6 0.00 5537 3
## 2020-07-13 5640 12 311 217 237 -20.0 0.00 5537 2
## 2020-07-14 5652 12 300 193 226 -33.4 0.00 5537 2
## 2020-07-15 5660 11 305 225 220 5.0 0.00 5537 2
## 2020-07-16 5666 11 269 201 221 -20.0 0.00 5537 3
## 2020-07-17 5672 9 260 219 225 -6.4 0.00 5537 2
## 2020-07-18 5679 8 248 246 229 16.6 0.00 5537 2
## 2020-07-19 5690 8 231 211 221 -9.8 0.00 5537 2
## 2020-07-20 5697 8 232 225 225 0.4 0.00 5537 3
## 2020-07-21 5703 7 226 211 225 -14.4 0.00 5537 3
## 2020-07-22 5710 7 214 197 214 -17.2 0.00 5537 2
## 2020-07-23 5716 7 215 240 215 25.0 0.00 5537 3
## 2020-07-24 5721 7 208 243 220 23.0 0.00 5537 2
## 2020-07-25 5724 6 205 218 226 -8.0 0.00 5537 3
## 2020-07-26 5725 5 198 202 222 -20.4 0.00 5537 3
## 2020-07-27 5727 4 188 232 250 -18.2 0.00 5537 3
## 2020-07-28 5733 4 179 212 225 -13.0 0.00 5537 3
## 2020-07-29 5737 4 188 213 216 -2.8 0.00 5537 3
## 2020-07-30 5738 3 188 213 220 -7.2 0.00 5537 2
## 2020-07-31 5738 2 200 219 231 -12.0 0.00 5537 2
## 2020-08-01 5740 2 199 213 237 -24.2 0.00 5537 2
## 2020-08-02 5742 2 223 245 230 15.2 0.00 5537 2
## 2020-08-03 5745 3 222 217 216 1.0 0.00 5537 2
## 2020-08-04 5749 2 236 210 224 -14.2 0.85 5538 2
## 2020-08-05 5751 2 243 213 223 -9.6 0.67 5539 2
## 2020-08-06 5752 2 261 209 215 -6.2 2.88 5542 3
## 2020-08-07 5756 3 271 266 222 44.4 4.28 5546 2
## 2020-08-08 5758 3 289 238 216 21.8 5.96 5552 2
## 2020-08-09 5759 2 283 217 225 -8.2 8.28 5560 2
## 2020-08-10 5763 3 288 203 218 -14.6 8.27 5568 2
## 2020-08-11 5765 2 292 232 209 22.6 6.85 5575 1
## 2020-08-12 5769 3 304 214 218 -3.6 3.24 5578 1
## 2020-08-13 5772 3 307 265 212 53.4 1.75 5580 1
## 2020-08-14 5777 3 305 200 220 -20.2 2.12 5582 2
## 2020-08-15 5778 3 299 212 216 -3.8 2.14 5585 2
## 2020-08-16 5779 3 295 189 229 -40.4 1.85 5586 2
## 2020-08-17 5779 2 293 219 213 6.4 3.13 5589 2
## 2020-08-18 5782 2 290 246 216 30.0 1.23 5591 2
## 2020-08-19 5786 2 275 213 222 -9.0 0.00 5591 2
## 2020-08-20 5787 2 262 206 219 -13.4 0.00 5591 2
## 2020-08-21 5789 2 258 243 227 15.6 0.71 5591 2
## 2020-08-22 5794 2 251 246 217 29.0 2.30 5594 1
## 2020-08-23 5795 2 242 202 219 -17.2 0.00 5594 1
## 2020-08-24 5798 3 241 202 221 -19.2 0.00 5594 1
## 2020-08-25 5799 2 241 226 223 2.6 0.00 5594 2
## 2020-08-26 5800 2 228 223 218 5.0 0.00 5594 2
## 2020-08-27 5802 2 213 208 215 -7.2 0.00 5594 2
## 2020-08-28 5803 2 194 211 215 -4.4 0.00 5594 2
## 2020-08-29 5804 1 177 207 220 -12.8 0.00 5594 2
## 2020-08-30 5805 1 173 206 229 -22.6 0.00 5594 2
## 2020-08-31 5808 1 171 178 227 -49.4 0.00 5594 2
## 2020-09-01 5810 2 170 216 243 -26.6 0.00 5594 1
## 2020-09-02 5813 2 162 217 237 -19.6 0.00 5594 1
## 2020-09-03 5815 2 158 239 229 10.0 0.00 5594 2
## 2020-09-04 5817 2 170 210 221 -11.2 0.00 5594 2
## 2020-09-05 5817 2 182 226 225 1.4 0.00 5594 2
## 2020-09-06 5817 2 188 227 219 7.6 0.00 5594 1
## 2020-09-07 5820 2 190 220 231 -11.0 0.00 5594 1
## 2020-09-08 5821 2 194 194 225 -31.2 0.00 5594 2
## 2020-09-09 5822 1 203 237 226 11.4 0.00 5594 2
## 2020-09-10 5824 1 217 195 216 -21.4 0.00 5594 2
## 2020-09-11 5826 1 213 225 223 1.6 0.00 5594 1
## 2020-09-12 5830 2 217 219 219 -0.2 0.00 5594 2
## 2020-09-13 5831 2 222 235 211 24.2 0.00 5594 2
## 2020-09-14 5833 2 228 196 223 -26.6 0.00 5594 2
## 2020-09-15 5835 2 233 221 232 -11.0 0.00 5594 2
## 2020-09-16 5836 2 241 228 220 8.4 0.00 5594 2
## 2020-09-17 5838 2 243 238 232 5.8 0.00 5594 2
## 2020-09-18 5839 2 262 200 223 -22.8 0.00 5594 3
## 2020-09-19 5840 1 283 227 215 11.6 0.00 5594 3
## 2020-09-20 5841 1 293 198 226 -28.4 0.00 5594 3
## 2020-09-21 5845 2 297 225 232 -7.0 0.00 5594 3
## 2020-09-22 5847 2 304 207 226 -19.4 0.00 5594 3
## 2020-09-23 5848 2 325 225 234 -9.2 0.00 5594 3
## 2020-09-24 5848 1 356 244 223 21.0 0.00 5594 3
## 2020-09-25 5849 1 378 213 222 -9.4 0.00 5594 3
## 2020-09-26 5853 2 405 236 223 12.6 0.00 5594 3
## 2020-09-27 5855 2 412 208 238 -30.0 0.00 5594 3
## 2020-09-28 5856 2 417 240 214 26.0 0.00 5594 3
## 2020-09-29 5857 1 433 186 242 -55.6 0.00 5594 3
## 2020-09-30 5859 2 458 220 226 -5.6 0.00 5594 2
## 2020-10-01 5863 2 477 258 233 24.8 0.00 5594 2
## 2020-10-02 5864 2 490 250 234 16.4 0.00 5594 2
## 2020-10-03 5867 2 502 184 234 -49.6 0.00 5594 3
## 2020-10-04 5870 2 522 201 240 -38.6 0.00 5594 3
## 2020-10-05 5873 2 520 227 222 4.6 0.00 5594 4
## 2020-10-06 5875 3 519 209 223 -13.8 0.00 5594 4
## 2020-10-07 5879 3 544 224 232 -8.4 0.00 5594 4
## 2020-10-08 5882 3 565 218 238 -20.4 0.00 5594 5
## 2020-10-09 5883 3 593 229 234 -4.6 0.00 5594 6
## 2020-10-10 5888 3 603 219 242 -22.8 0.00 5594 5
## 2020-10-11 5893 3 610 191 240 -48.6 0.00 5594 5
## 2020-10-12 5895 3 611 226 237 -11.2 0.00 5594 5
## 2020-10-13 5898 3 649 216 225 -8.8 0.00 5594 4
## 2020-10-14 5899 3 667 236 240 -4.2 0.00 5594 4
## 2020-10-15 5901 3 687 249 225 24.2 0.00 5594 3
## 2020-10-16 5904 3 697 209 230 -20.6 0.00 5594 2
## 2020-10-17 5906 3 753 210 243 -32.8 0.00 5594 0
## 2020-10-18 5910 2 780 210 222 -11.6 0.00 5594 0
## 2020-10-19 5911 2 803 204 241 -36.6 0.00 5594 0
## 2020-10-20 5915 2 822 214 238 -23.8 0.00 5594 0
## 2020-10-21 5919 3 876 204 233 -29.4 0.00 5594 0
## 2020-10-22 5921 3 962 172 248 -76.4 0.00 5594 0
## 2020-10-23 5929 4 1071 126 241 -114.8 0.00 5594 0
## 2020-10-24 5934 4 1169 105 240 -134.8 0.00 5594 0
## 2020-10-25 5940 4 1281 110 236 -126.2 0.00 5594 0
## 2020-10-26 5946 5 1309 71 236 -165.0 0.00 5594 0
## 2020-10-27 5954 6 1352 46 235 -189.2 0.00 5594 0
## 2020-10-28 5956 5 1512 43 239 -196.0 0.00 5594 0
## 2020-10-29 5959 5 1773 38 235 -197.2 0.00 5594 0
## 2020-10-30 5962 5 2001 1 244 -242.6 0.00 5594 0
## 2020-10-31 5964 4 2314 NA NA NA NA NA 0
## 2020-11-01 5967 4 2530 NA NA NA NA NA 0
## 2020-11-02 5967 3 2643 NA NA NA NA NA 0
## 2020-11-03 5969 2 2658 NA NA NA NA NA 0