Overview

Six models are used to forecast each major age class of sockeye salmon in the major rivers of Bristol Bay. Five of these models are linear regressions and the sixth is a 5-year running average of the age class under consideration.

Forecast models

This document covers output from five linnear regression models run against four major age classes in this river. Three regressions are variations of the sibling relationship with the age being forecast (Table 1). The first regression (sibling) uses observed forecast age and the brood year younger sibling return. The second regression (ln.sibling) uses a natural log transformation of both the forecasted age and the sibling return. The third regression (lnY.sibling) uses the sibling age return and a natural log transformation of the forecasted age. Two linnear regression models based on forecasted age return and total spawning escapment. The first of these (lnS.lnR) is the natural log of the forecasted age class regressed against the natural log of the spawning escapement. The second forecast method that relies on the relationship between the forecasted age and the spawning escapement is a linnear transformation of the Ricker relationship.

Table 1. Forecast ages and the sibling age class used for forecasting.

Forecast Age Sibling
Age.12 Age.11
Age.22 Age.21
Age.13 Age.12
Age.23 Age.22

Output

Each model output consists of a table and two graphs. The table shows the most recent 10 years of observed returns for the age being forecast (‘Observed Return’) and the relevant sibling return (‘Sibling Return’) shown in bold black text. Brood and return years are shown in blue text. Two regression model statistics (R-squared and P-value of the slope) are shown in red. Model forecasted returns are shown in bold black text with a yellow highlight. Error measurements are shown in green text. Error measurements shown are absolute deviation (AD), absolute percent error (APE), percent error (PE) and arc tan percent error (AAPE).

After the table summarizing the model output for the most recenet ten years, two graphs are shown for each of the linnear regression models. The first graph is a scatter plot of the data with a linnear regression superimposed. The second graph is a plot of the residuals of the regression analysis.

Absolute deviation (AD) is defined as

\[\ AD = O - F\] where

O = Observed Return

F = Forecasted Return

Percent error (PE) is defined as

\[\ PE = (F - O)/O\] Absolute Percent error (APE) is defined as

\[\ APE = |(F - O)/O|\]

Arctangent percent error (AAPE) is defined (Kim and Kim, 2016) as \[\ AAPE = arctan(|((O - F)/O)|)\]

At the end of the model output section for each age class, a performance table is presented that contains the mean absolute deviation (MAD), neam absolute percent error (MAPE), mean percent error (MPE) and mean arctanget percent error (MAAPE). These performance metrics are calculated and presented across the most recent three and five years. Color bars show the relative size of each metric.

age.12

Below are model outputs using data from 1972

sibling

Return Yr Brood Yr Observed Return Sibling Return R Sq P-val Forecasted Return AD APE PE AAPE
2012 2008 1,306,633 0 0.257 0.001 1,779,638 473,005 0.27 0.27 0.35
2013 2009 1,382,656 1,790 0.263 0.001 1,884,441 501,785 0.27 0.27 0.35
2014 2010 4,795,481 41,816 0.266 0.001 4,614,988 180,494 0.04 -0.04 0.04
2015 2011 2,666,595 10,407 0.330 0.000 2,468,617 197,978 0.08 -0.08 0.07
2016 2012 3,133,423 77,219 0.331 0.000 7,140,675 4,007,252 0.56 0.56 0.91
2017 2013 9,677,410 207,823 0.229 0.001 10,906,524 1,229,114 0.11 0.11 0.13
2018 2014 20,246,492 163,321 0.539 0.000 8,215,683 12,030,809 1.46 -1.46 0.54
2019 2015 8,064,807 0 0.635 0.000 1,776,346 6,288,461 3.54 -3.54 0.66
2020 2016 5,789,120 87,518 0.572 0.000 7,360,047 1,570,928 0.21 0.21 0.26
2021 2017 NA 36,733 0.574 0.000 4,155,787 NA NA NA NA

ln.sibling

Return Yr Brood Yr Observed Return Sibling Return R Sq P-val Forecasted Return AD APE PE AAPE
2012 2008 1,306,633 0 0.130 0.018 1,015,733 290,901 0.29 -0.29 0.22
2013 2009 1,382,656 1,790 0.131 0.016 1,917,457 534,801 0.28 0.28 0.37
2014 2010 4,795,481 41,816 0.128 0.016 2,449,155 2,346,326 0.96 -0.96 0.46
2015 2011 2,666,595 10,407 0.149 0.009 2,263,442 403,154 0.18 -0.18 0.15
2016 2012 3,133,423 77,219 0.155 0.007 2,712,414 421,010 0.16 -0.16 0.13
2017 2013 9,677,410 207,823 0.165 0.005 2,987,285 6,690,125 2.24 -2.24 0.60
2018 2014 20,246,492 163,321 0.203 0.002 3,188,627 17,057,865 5.35 -5.35 0.70
2019 2015 8,064,807 0 0.239 0.001 919,852 7,144,955 7.77 -7.77 0.72
2020 2016 5,789,120 87,518 0.156 0.005 3,199,953 2,589,166 0.81 -0.81 0.42
2021 2017 NA 36,733 0.172 0.003 3,034,792 NA NA NA NA

lnY.sibling

Return Yr Brood Yr Observed Return Sibling Return R Sq P-val Forecasted Return AD APE PE AAPE
2012 2008 1,306,633 0 0.138 0.015 1,416,097 109,464 0.08 0.08 0.08
2013 2009 1,382,656 1,790 0.142 0.012 1,489,608 106,952 0.07 0.07 0.08
2014 2010 4,795,481 41,816 0.144 0.011 4,933,155 137,674 0.03 0.03 0.03
2015 2011 2,666,595 10,407 0.181 0.004 1,921,674 744,922 0.39 -0.39 0.27
2016 2012 3,133,423 77,219 0.183 0.003 14,378,160 11,244,737 0.78 0.78 1.30
2017 2013 9,677,410 207,823 0.144 0.008 94,244,080 84,566,670 0.90 0.90 1.46
2018 2014 20,246,492 163,321 0.192 0.002 9,522,728 10,723,764 1.13 -1.13 0.49
2019 2015 8,064,807 0 0.316 0.000 1,585,561 6,479,246 4.09 -4.09 0.68
2020 2016 5,789,120 87,518 0.279 0.000 4,772,659 1,016,461 0.21 -0.21 0.17
2021 2017 NA 36,733 0.300 0.000 2,601,611 NA NA NA NA

lnS.lnR

Return Yr Brood Yr Observed Return Spawner Return R Sq P-val Forecasted Return AD APE PE AAPE
2012 2008 1,306,633 1,724,676 0.129 0.018 2,135,067 828,434 0.39 0.39 0.57
2013 2009 1,382,656 1,319,232 0.123 0.019 1,747,823 365,167 0.21 0.21 0.26
2014 2010 4,795,481 1,804,344 0.122 0.018 2,144,550 2,650,931 1.24 -1.24 0.50
2015 2011 2,666,595 1,098,006 0.135 0.012 1,558,431 1,108,164 0.71 -0.71 0.39
2016 2012 3,133,423 764,211 0.130 0.013 1,228,177 1,905,246 1.55 -1.55 0.55
2017 2013 9,677,410 1,183,348 0.108 0.020 1,711,846 7,965,564 4.65 -4.65 0.69
2018 2014 20,246,492 2,764,614 0.090 0.030 3,036,640 17,209,852 5.67 -5.67 0.70
2019 2015 8,064,807 1,941,474 0.143 0.007 2,730,838 5,333,969 1.95 -1.95 0.58
2020 2016 5,789,120 1,309,707 0.158 0.004 2,046,543 3,742,576 1.83 -1.83 0.57
2021 2017 NA 4,274,224 0.153 0.005 5,715,505 NA NA NA NA

ricker

Return Yr Brood Yr Observed Return Spawner Return R Sq P-val Forecasted Return AD APE PE AAPE
2012 2008 1,306,633 1,724,676 0.045 0.112 2,116,302 809,669 0.38 0.38 0.55
2013 2009 1,382,656 1,319,232 0.050 0.097 1,814,770 432,113 0.24 0.24 0.30
2014 2010 4,795,481 1,804,344 0.050 0.094 2,108,734 2,686,748 1.27 -1.27 0.51
2015 2011 2,666,595 1,098,006 0.040 0.116 1,633,474 1,033,121 0.63 -0.63 0.37
2016 2012 3,133,423 764,211 0.044 0.102 1,279,671 1,853,752 1.45 -1.45 0.53
2017 2013 9,677,410 1,183,348 0.059 0.068 1,791,395 7,886,015 4.40 -4.40 0.68
2018 2014 20,246,492 2,764,614 0.060 0.065 2,457,770 17,788,722 7.24 -7.24 0.72
2019 2015 8,064,807 1,941,474 0.003 0.299 2,665,338 5,399,469 2.03 -2.03 0.59
2020 2016 5,789,120 1,309,707 -0.005 0.380 2,090,074 3,699,045 1.77 -1.77 0.57
2021 2017 NA 4,274,224 -0.004 0.366 4,114,983 NA NA NA NA

average

Return Yr Brood Yr Observed Return Forecasted Return AD APE PE AAPE
2012 2008 1,306,633 3,558,320 2,251,687 0.63 0.63 1.04
2013 2009 1,382,656 2,749,597 1,366,941 0.50 0.50 0.78
2014 2010 4,795,481 2,243,552 2,551,929 1.14 -1.14 0.49
2015 2011 2,666,595 2,699,500 32,904 0.01 0.01 0.01
2016 2012 3,133,423 2,323,639 809,784 0.35 -0.35 0.25
2017 2013 9,677,410 2,656,958 7,020,452 2.64 -2.64 0.63
2018 2014 20,246,492 4,331,113 15,915,379 3.67 -3.67 0.67
2019 2015 8,064,807 8,103,880 39,073 0.00 0.00 0.00
2020 2016 5,789,120 8,757,745 2,968,626 0.34 0.34 0.47
2021 2017 NA 9,382,250 NA NA NA NA

Performance summary

model range MAD MAPE MPE MAAPE
sibling 5 years 5,025,313 117.84% -82.34% 0.50
sibling 3 years 6,630,066 173.93% -159.70% 0.49
ln.sibling 5 years 6,780,624 326.42% -326.42% 0.52
ln.sibling 3 years 8,930,662 464.21% -464.21% 0.62
lnY.sibling 5 years 22,806,176 142.10% -74.92% 0.82
lnY.sibling 3 years 6,073,157 180.85% -180.85% 0.45
lnS.lnR 5 years 7,231,442 313.08% -313.08% 0.62
lnS.lnR 3 years 8,762,133 314.98% -314.98% 0.62
ricker 5 years 7,325,401 337.68% -337.68% 0.62
ricker 3 years 8,962,412 367.78% -367.78% 0.63
average 5 years 5,350,663 140.18% -126.43% 0.41
average 3 years 6,307,693 133.95% -111.03% 0.38

age.22

lnS.lnR

Return Yr Brood Yr Observed Return Spawner Return R Sq P-val Forecasted Return AD APE PE AAPE
2012 2007 175,413 1,528,086 0.017 0.215 120,356 55,057 0.46 -0.46 0.30
2013 2008 47,795 1,724,676 0.020 0.199 130,408 82,613 0.63 0.63 1.05
2014 2009 208,956 1,319,232 0.014 0.228 109,043 99,913 0.92 -0.92 0.45
2015 2010 214,853 1,804,344 0.015 0.221 130,671 84,182 0.64 -0.64 0.37
2016 2011 105,680 1,098,006 0.019 0.193 101,732 3,948 0.04 -0.04 0.04
2017 2012 56,376 764,211 0.020 0.187 83,610 27,234 0.33 0.33 0.45
2018 2013 57,517 1,183,348 0.026 0.157 104,895 47,378 0.45 0.45 0.69
2019 2014 340,940 2,764,614 0.027 0.150 168,226 172,714 1.03 -1.03 0.47
2020 2015 38,883 1,941,474 0.044 0.096 143,355 104,472 0.73 0.73 1.21
2021 2016 NA 1,309,707 0.032 0.128 108,202 NA NA NA NA

ricker

Return Yr Brood Yr Observed Return Spawner Return R Sq P-val Forecasted Return AD APE PE AAPE
2012 2007 175,413 1,528,086 0.003 0.299 125,703 49,710 0.40 -0.40 0.28
2013 2008 47,795 1,724,676 0.004 0.296 134,583 86,788 0.64 0.64 1.07
2014 2009 208,956 1,319,232 0.008 0.261 114,063 94,893 0.83 -0.83 0.43
2015 2010 214,853 1,804,344 0.010 0.252 134,243 80,609 0.60 -0.60 0.36
2016 2011 105,680 1,098,006 0.008 0.260 104,957 724 0.01 -0.01 0.01
2017 2012 56,376 764,211 0.009 0.252 81,599 25,223 0.31 0.31 0.42
2018 2013 57,517 1,183,348 0.007 0.262 108,690 51,173 0.47 0.47 0.73
2019 2014 340,940 2,764,614 0.006 0.269 153,247 187,693 1.22 -1.22 0.50
2020 2015 38,883 1,941,474 -0.002 0.343 146,029 107,146 0.73 0.73 1.22
2021 2016 NA 1,309,707 0.005 0.274 112,280 NA NA NA NA

average

Return Yr Brood Yr Observed Return Forecasted Return AD APE PE AAPE
2012 2007 175,412.90 161,777 13,636 0.08 -0.08 0.08
2013 2008 47,794.69 149,550 101,755 0.68 0.68 1.13
2014 2009 208,955.75 151,561 57,395 0.38 -0.38 0.27
2015 2010 214,852.73 170,778 44,074 0.26 -0.26 0.20
2016 2011 105,680.45 166,575 60,894 0.37 0.37 0.52
2017 2012 56,375.81 150,539 94,163 0.63 0.63 1.03
2018 2013 57,516.87 126,732 69,215 0.55 0.55 0.88
2019 2014 340,940.07 128,676 212,264 1.65 -1.65 0.56
2020 2015 38,883.37 155,073 116,190 0.75 0.75 1.25
2021 2016 NA 119,879 NA NA NA NA

Performance summary

model range MAD MAPE MPE MAAPE
sibling 5 years 246,052 62.93% 62.93% 1.01
sibling 3 years 258,794 59.90% 59.90% 0.94
ln.sibling 5 years 122,160 42.04% 40.57% 0.65
ln.sibling 3 years 112,829 38.30% 35.86% 0.59
lnY.sibling 5 years 255,422 52.35% 52.35% 0.80
lnY.sibling 3 years 309,538 51.23% 51.23% 0.77
lnS.lnR 5 years 71,149 51.43% 8.81% 0.57
lnS.lnR 3 years 108,188 73.57% 5.13% 0.79
ricker 5 years 74,392 54.91% 5.64% 0.58
ricker 3 years 115,337 80.98% -0.67% 0.82
average 5 years 110,545 78.72% 12.74% 0.85
average 3 years 132,556 98.17% -11.81% 0.89

age.13

Below are model outputs using data from 1972

sibling

Return Yr Brood Yr Observed Return Sibling Return R Sq P-val Forecasted Return AD APE PE AAPE
2012 2007 1,144,816 1,466,827 0.285 0.001 1,941,403 796,588 0.41 0.41 0.61
2013 2008 1,776,273 1,306,633 0.291 0.000 1,839,702 63,429 0.03 0.03 0.04
2014 2009 2,055,987 1,382,656 0.295 0.000 1,872,093 183,893 0.10 -0.10 0.09
2015 2010 1,989,184 4,795,481 0.295 0.000 3,434,047 1,444,863 0.42 0.42 0.63
2016 2011 2,859,737 2,666,595 0.256 0.001 2,406,154 453,583 0.19 -0.19 0.16
2017 2012 1,384,226 3,133,423 0.258 0.000 2,610,259 1,226,033 0.47 0.47 0.72
2018 2013 2,368,581 9,677,410 0.239 0.001 5,168,237 2,799,656 0.54 0.54 0.87
2019 2014 3,790,599 20,246,492 0.143 0.008 6,577,422 2,786,823 0.42 0.42 0.63
2020 2015 2,218,054 8,064,807 0.138 0.008 2,965,583 747,529 0.25 0.25 0.33
2021 2016 NA 5,789,120 0.128 0.010 2,619,276 NA NA NA NA

ln.sibling

Return Yr Brood Yr Observed Return Sibling Return R Sq P-val Forecasted Return AD APE PE AAPE
2012 2007 1,144,816 1,466,827 0.465 0 1,821,927 677,111 0.37 0.37 0.53
2013 2008 1,776,273 1,306,633 0.461 0 1,696,830 79,444 0.05 -0.05 0.04
2014 2009 2,055,987 1,382,656 0.461 0 1,747,769 308,217 0.18 -0.18 0.15
2015 2010 1,989,184 4,795,481 0.460 0 3,258,927 1,269,743 0.39 0.39 0.57
2016 2011 2,859,737 2,666,595 0.441 0 2,382,354 477,383 0.20 -0.20 0.17
2017 2012 1,384,226 3,133,423 0.445 0 2,589,234 1,205,008 0.47 0.47 0.72
2018 2013 2,368,581 9,677,410 0.420 0 4,276,720 1,908,139 0.45 0.45 0.68
2019 2014 3,790,599 20,246,492 0.397 0 5,466,090 1,675,492 0.31 0.31 0.42
2020 2015 2,218,054 8,064,807 0.408 0 3,516,829 1,298,775 0.37 0.37 0.53
2021 2016 NA 5,789,120 0.394 0 2,985,962 NA NA NA NA

lnY.sibling

Return Yr Brood Yr Observed Return Sibling Return R Sq P-val Forecasted Return AD APE PE AAPE
2012 2007 1,144,816 1,466,827 0.349 0.000 1,627,318 482,503 0.30 0.30 0.40
2013 2008 1,776,273 1,306,633 0.354 0.000 1,542,696 233,578 0.15 -0.15 0.13
2014 2009 2,055,987 1,382,656 0.354 0.000 1,581,125 474,862 0.30 -0.30 0.23
2015 2010 1,989,184 4,795,481 0.349 0.000 3,747,762 1,758,578 0.47 0.47 0.72
2016 2011 2,859,737 2,666,595 0.319 0.000 2,145,349 714,388 0.33 -0.33 0.24
2017 2012 1,384,226 3,133,423 0.321 0.000 2,408,331 1,024,105 0.43 0.43 0.64
2018 2013 2,368,581 9,677,410 0.303 0.000 10,291,936 7,923,355 0.77 0.77 1.28
2019 2014 3,790,599 20,246,492 0.203 0.002 25,631,954 21,841,355 0.85 0.85 1.40
2020 2015 2,218,054 8,064,807 0.145 0.007 2,848,340 630,286 0.22 0.22 0.28
2021 2016 NA 5,789,120 0.141 0.007 2,400,151 NA NA NA NA

lnS.lnR

Return Yr Brood Yr Observed Return Spawner Return R Sq P-val Forecasted Return AD APE PE AAPE
2012 2007 1,144,816 1,528,086 0.013 0.235 2,078,980 934,164 0.45 0.45 0.68
2013 2008 1,776,273 1,724,676 0.008 0.262 2,100,043 323,769 0.15 0.15 0.18
2014 2009 2,055,987 1,319,232 0.008 0.266 1,956,977 99,010 0.05 -0.05 0.05
2015 2010 1,989,184 1,804,344 0.008 0.259 2,111,696 122,512 0.06 0.06 0.06
2016 2011 2,859,737 1,098,006 0.009 0.254 1,873,402 986,335 0.53 -0.53 0.33
2017 2012 1,384,226 764,211 0.007 0.267 1,745,461 361,235 0.21 0.21 0.26
2018 2013 2,368,581 1,183,348 0.013 0.225 1,915,642 452,939 0.24 -0.24 0.19
2019 2014 3,790,599 2,764,614 0.013 0.223 2,362,110 1,428,489 0.60 -0.60 0.36
2020 2015 2,218,054 1,941,474 0.030 0.137 2,232,509 14,455 0.01 0.01 0.01
2021 2016 NA 1,309,707 0.032 0.129 1,996,513 NA NA NA NA

ricker

Return Yr Brood Yr Observed Return Spawner Return R Sq P-val Forecasted Return AD APE PE AAPE
2012 2007 1,144,816 1,528,086 0.284 0.001 2,223,379 1,078,564 0.49 0.49 0.76
2013 2008 1,776,273 1,724,676 0.281 0.001 2,203,333 427,060 0.19 0.19 0.24
2014 2009 2,055,987 1,319,232 0.286 0.000 2,106,372 50,385 0.02 0.02 0.02
2015 2010 1,989,184 1,804,344 0.286 0.000 2,185,694 196,510 0.09 0.09 0.10
2016 2011 2,859,737 1,098,006 0.291 0.000 1,983,283 876,454 0.44 -0.44 0.30
2017 2012 1,384,226 764,211 0.296 0.000 1,692,777 308,552 0.18 0.18 0.22
2018 2013 2,368,581 1,183,348 0.295 0.000 2,044,441 324,140 0.16 -0.16 0.14
2019 2014 3,790,599 2,764,614 0.297 0.000 1,942,357 1,848,242 0.95 -0.95 0.45
2020 2015 2,218,054 1,941,474 0.274 0.000 2,278,401 60,347 0.03 0.03 0.03
2021 2016 NA 1,309,707 0.278 0.000 2,134,396 NA NA NA NA

average

Return Yr Brood Yr Observed Return Forecasted Return AD APE PE AAPE
2012 2007 1,144,816 3,169,474 2,024,658 0.64 0.64 1.06
2013 2008 1,776,273 2,974,225 1,197,951 0.40 0.40 0.59
2014 2009 2,055,987 2,767,418 711,431 0.26 0.26 0.33
2015 2010 1,989,184 2,405,095 415,911 0.17 0.17 0.21
2016 2011 2,859,737 2,030,916 828,821 0.41 -0.41 0.28
2017 2012 1,384,226 1,965,199 580,974 0.30 0.30 0.40
2018 2013 2,368,581 2,013,081 355,500 0.18 -0.18 0.15
2019 2014 3,790,599 2,131,543 1,659,056 0.78 -0.78 0.41
2020 2015 2,218,054 2,478,465 260,411 0.11 0.11 0.12
2021 2016 NA 2,524,239 NA NA NA NA

Performance summary

model range MAD MAPE MPE MAAPE
sibling 5 years 1,602,725 37.51% 29.97% 0.54
sibling 3 years 2,111,336 40.58% 40.58% 0.61
ln.sibling 5 years 1,312,959 35.76% 27.74% 0.50
ln.sibling 3 years 1,627,469 37.40% 37.40% 0.54
lnY.sibling 5 years 6,426,698 52.03% 38.71% 0.77
lnY.sibling 3 years 10,131,665 61.44% 61.44% 0.99
lnS.lnR 5 years 648,691 31.62% -23.09% 0.23
lnS.lnR 3 years 631,961 28.26% -27.82% 0.19
ricker 5 years 683,547 35.22% -26.87% 0.23
ricker 3 years 744,243 37.89% -36.12% 0.21
average 5 years 736,952 35.27% -19.25% 0.27
average 3 years 758,322 35.33% -28.33% 0.23

age.23

Below are model outputs using data from 1972

sibling

Return Yr Brood Yr Observed Return Sibling Return R Sq P-val Forecasted Return AD APE PE AAPE
2012 2006 52,934 185,857 0.108 0.033 138,999 86,065 0.62 0.62 1.02
2013 2007 34,600 175,413 0.108 0.030 133,102 98,502 0.74 0.74 1.23
2014 2008 67,122 47,795 0.109 0.028 88,242 21,120 0.24 0.24 0.30
2015 2009 68,016 208,956 0.112 0.024 140,877 72,862 0.52 0.52 0.82
2016 2010 58,421 214,853 0.112 0.023 140,896 82,474 0.59 0.59 0.95
2017 2011 1,099 105,680 0.111 0.022 102,758 101,659 0.99 0.99 1.56
2018 2012 0 56,376 0.115 0.018 83,306 83,306 1.00 1.00 1.57
2019 2013 52,030 57,517 0.121 0.015 80,857 28,827 0.36 0.36 0.51
2020 2014 11,998 340,940 0.124 0.013 177,121 165,122 0.93 0.93 1.50
2021 2015 NA 38,883 0.113 0.016 71,821 NA NA NA NA

ln.sibling

Return Yr Brood Yr Observed Return Sibling Return R Sq P-val Forecasted Return AD APE PE AAPE
2012 2006 52,934 185,857 0.291 0.001 107,502 54,568 0.51 0.51 0.80
2013 2007 34,600 175,413 0.280 0.001 102,202 67,601 0.66 0.66 1.10
2014 2008 67,122 47,795 0.261 0.001 55,794 11,329 0.20 -0.20 0.17
2015 2009 68,016 208,956 0.262 0.001 106,866 38,850 0.36 0.36 0.52
2016 2010 58,421 214,853 0.257 0.001 106,459 48,038 0.45 0.45 0.69
2017 2011 1,099 105,680 0.249 0.001 77,319 76,219 0.99 0.99 1.56
2018 2012 0 56,376 0.156 0.007 53,201 53,201 1.00 1.00 1.57
2019 2013 52,030 57,517 0.013 0.224 21,379 30,651 1.43 -1.43 0.53
2020 2014 11,998 340,940 0.013 0.223 88,175 76,176 0.86 0.86 1.41
2021 2015 NA 38,883 0.010 0.238 16,172 NA NA NA NA

lnY.sibling

Return Yr Brood Yr Observed Return Sibling Return R Sq P-val Forecasted Return AD APE PE AAPE
2012 2006 52,934 185,857 0.174 0.008 81,846 28,912 0.35 0.35 0.50
2013 2007 34,600 175,413 0.174 0.007 79,198 44,597 0.56 0.56 0.91
2014 2008 67,122 47,795 0.172 0.007 60,219 6,903 0.11 -0.11 0.10
2015 2009 68,016 208,956 0.173 0.006 82,885 14,869 0.18 0.18 0.22
2016 2010 58,421 214,853 0.173 0.005 83,407 24,985 0.30 0.30 0.40
2017 2011 1,099 105,680 0.172 0.005 66,802 65,702 0.98 0.98 1.55
2018 2012 0 56,376 0.132 0.012 53,331 53,331 1.00 1.00 1.57
2019 2013 52,030 57,517 0.012 0.227 20,522 31,508 1.54 -1.54 0.54
2020 2014 11,998 340,940 0.012 0.227 69,499 57,501 0.83 0.83 1.37
2021 2015 NA 38,883 0.011 0.236 19,216 NA NA NA NA

lnS.lnR

Return Yr Brood Yr Observed Return Spawner Return R Sq P-val Forecasted Return AD APE PE AAPE
2012 2006 52,934 4,008,102 0.087 0.051 212,793 159,859 0.75 0.75 1.25
2013 2007 34,600 1,528,086 0.044 0.118 91,946 57,345 0.62 0.62 1.03
2014 2008 67,122 1,724,676 0.038 0.133 95,032 27,910 0.29 0.29 0.39
2015 2009 68,016 1,319,232 0.036 0.136 81,450 13,434 0.16 0.16 0.20
2016 2010 58,421 1,804,344 0.036 0.131 95,494 37,072 0.39 0.39 0.57
2017 2011 1,099 1,098,006 0.032 0.141 72,965 71,865 0.98 0.98 1.56
2018 2012 0 764,211 0.026 0.160 52,520 52,520 1.00 1.00 1.57
2019 2013 52,030 1,183,348 0.050 0.085 49,792 2,237 0.04 -0.04 0.04
2020 2014 11,998 2,764,614 0.051 0.081 146,448 134,450 0.92 0.92 1.48
2021 2015 NA 1,941,474 0.030 0.137 80,319 NA NA NA NA

ricker

Return Yr Brood Yr Observed Return Spawner Return R Sq P-val Forecasted Return AD APE PE AAPE
2012 2006 52,934 4,008,102 -0.007 0.383 125,155 72,221 0.58 0.58 0.94
2013 2007 34,600 1,528,086 0.067 0.073 94,105 59,504 0.63 0.63 1.04
2014 2008 67,122 1,724,676 0.068 0.068 94,405 27,283 0.29 0.29 0.39
2015 2009 68,016 1,319,232 0.072 0.059 85,966 17,950 0.21 0.21 0.26
2016 2010 58,421 1,804,344 0.072 0.057 93,586 35,165 0.38 0.38 0.54
2017 2011 1,099 1,098,006 0.078 0.047 78,026 76,927 0.99 0.99 1.56
2018 2012 0 764,211 0.022 0.180 54,209 54,209 1.00 1.00 1.57
2019 2013 52,030 1,183,348 -0.026 0.944 50,290 1,740 0.03 -0.03 0.03
2020 2014 11,998 2,764,614 -0.025 0.944 124,414 112,416 0.90 0.90 1.46
2021 2015 NA 1,941,474 -0.022 0.766 73,090 NA NA NA NA

average

Return Yr Brood Yr Observed Return Forecasted Return AD APE PE AAPE
2012 2006 52,934.437 84,725 31,791 0.38 0.38 0.54
2013 2007 34,600.432 82,903 48,303 0.58 0.58 0.95
2014 2008 67,122.121 81,456 14,334 0.18 0.18 0.21
2015 2009 68,015.752 77,474 9,458 0.12 0.12 0.14
2016 2010 58,421.461 63,627 5,206 0.08 0.08 0.09
2017 2011 1,099.204 56,219 55,120 0.98 0.98 1.55
2018 2012 0.000 45,852 45,852 1.00 1.00 1.57
2019 2013 52,029.967 38,932 13,098 0.34 -0.34 0.25
2020 2014 11,998.437 35,913 23,915 0.67 0.67 1.11
2021 2015 NA 24,710 NA NA NA NA

Performance summary

model range MAD MAPE MPE MAAPE
sibling 5 years 92,278 77.27% 77.27% 1.22
sibling 3 years 92,418 76.29% 76.29% 1.19
ln.sibling 5 years 56,857 94.69% 37.35% 1.15
ln.sibling 3 years 53,343 109.92% 14.34% 1.17
lnY.sibling 5 years 46,606 92.92% 31.50% 1.09
lnY.sibling 3 years 47,447 112.09% 9.74% 1.16
lnS.lnR 5 years 59,629 66.72% 64.93% 1.04
lnS.lnR 3 years 63,069 65.43% 62.44% 1.03
ricker 5 years 56,091 66.00% 64.61% 1.03
ricker 3 years 56,122 64.61% 62.30% 1.02
average 5 years 28,638 61.29% 47.83% 0.91
average 3 years 27,622 66.74% 44.32% 0.97