2020高雄市長補選電訪調查結果分析報告
歐雅欣
2020/10/31
資料說明
## 本次調查是委託政大選舉研究中心，以電話訪問設籍在高雄市且年滿二十歲以上的成年人，市話調查抽樣方法併採以下兩種方式；一、電話簿抽樣法及二比例抽樣法(母體來自政大選舉心中資料庫)，期間為109年8月19日至8月23日止，實際訪問完成1,160個有效樣本，以95%之信心水準估計，最大可能隨機抽樣誤差為：±2.88%之下讀取sav檔案並轉成rda檔案
## 讀取sav
library(sjlabelled)
voter1 <- read_spss("voter1.sav")
View(voter1)
names(voter1)
str(voter1)
## 移除不必要的欄位
library(sjmisc)
names(voter1)
voter1 <- remove_var(voter1, 3:46)
## 另存rda
save(voter1, file = "voter1.rda")清理無效值
## 重新讀入
load("voter1.rda")
## 清理無效值
library(sjmisc)
voter1r <- set_na(voter1, na=c(89:99, "NA"))
save(voter1r, file ="voter1r.rda" )
rm(list = ls())變數重新編碼
## 變數重新編碼
library(sjmisc)
load("voter1r.rda")
# 7.有人說：「政治人物當選後，很快就會跟民意脫節。」請問您同不同意這個說法？
# (01)非常同意 (02)同意 (03)不同意 (04)非常不同意
# table(voter1r$Q7)
# frq(voter1r$Q7)
voter1r$Q7r <- rec(voter1r$Q7, rec= "1=4[strongly agree]; 2=3[agree]; 3=2[disagree]; 4=1[strongly disagree]", as.num = F )
# frq(voter1r$Q7r)
# 8.有人說：「政治人物並不會關心像我這樣一般百姓的想法。」請問您同不同意這個說法？
# (01)非常同意 (02)同意 (03)不同意 (04)非常不同意
# table(voter1r$Q8)
# frq(voter1r$Q8)
voter1r$Q8r <- rec(voter1r$Q8, rec= "1=4[agree]; 2=3[disagree]; 3=2[didn't vote]; 4=1[no voting rights]", as.num = F )
# frq(voter1r$Q8r)
# 9.有人說：「政治人物會用心為一般百姓做事。」請問您同不同意這個說法？
# (01)非常同意 (02)同意 (03)不同意 (04)非常不同意
# table(voter1r$Q9)
# frq(voter1r$Q9)
voter1r$Q9r <- rec(voter1r$Q9, rec= "1=4[agree]; 2=3[disagree]; 3=2[didn't vote]; 4=1[no voting rights]", as.num = F )
# frq(voter1r$Q9r)
# 年齡
# (01)20至29歲 (02)30至39歲 (03)40至49歲 (04)50至59歲 (05)60歲及以上
# table(voter1r$AGE)
# frq(voter1r$AGE)
voter1r$AGE <- rec(voter1r$AGE, rec= "else=copy", as.num = F )
# frq(voter1r$AGE)為變數上標籤
## 為變數上標籤
library(sjlabelled)##
## Attaching package: 'sjlabelled'## The following objects are masked from 'package:sjmisc':
##
## to_character, to_factor, to_label, to_numericvoter1r$Q7r <- set_label(voter1r$Q7r, label ="politicians do not value public opiniom" )
voter1r$Q7r <- set_labels(voter1r$Q7r, labels = c("strongly disagree (1)", "disagree (2)", "agree (3)", "strongly agree (4)") )
# frq(voter1r$Q7r)
voter1r$Q8r <- set_label(voter1r$Q8r, label ="politicians don't care about the people" )
voter1r$Q8r <- set_labels(voter1r$Q8r, labels = c("strongly disagree (1)", "disagree (2)", "agree (3)", "strongly agree (4)") )
# frq(voter1r$Q8r)
voter1r$Q9r <- set_label(voter1r$Q9r, label ="politicians will do things hard" )
voter1r$Q9r <- set_labels(voter1r$Q9r, labels = c("strongly disagree (1)", "disagree (2)", "agree (3)", "strongly agree (4)") )
# frq(voter1r$Q9r)
voter1r$AGE <- set_label(voter1r$AGE, label = "AGE")
voter1r$AGE <- set_labels(voter1r$AGE, labels = c("20~29", "30~39", "40~49", "50~50", "60up"))
## 看次數分配表
library(sjPlot)## Learn more about sjPlot with 'browseVignettes("sjPlot")'.# sjmisc;;frq(voter1r$Q7r)
frq(voter1r$Q7r)##
## politicians do not value public opiniom (x) <categorical>
## # total N=1160 valid N=1020 mean=2.86 sd=0.89
##
## Value | Label | N | Raw % | Valid % | Cum. %
## --------------------------------------------------------------
## 1 | strongly disagree (1) | 72 | 6.21 | 7.06 | 7.06
## 2 | disagree (2) | 271 | 23.36 | 26.57 | 33.63
## 3 | agree (3) | 405 | 34.91 | 39.71 | 73.33
## 4 | strongly agree (4) | 272 | 23.45 | 26.67 | 100.00
## <NA> | <NA> | 140 | 12.07 | <NA> | <NA>plot_frq(voter1r$Q7r)
# sjmisc;;frq(voter1r$Q8r)
frq(voter1r$Q8r)##
## politicians don't care about the people (x) <categorical>
## # total N=1160 valid N=1046 mean=2.73 sd=0.91
##
## Value | Label | N | Raw % | Valid % | Cum. %
## --------------------------------------------------------------
## 1 | strongly disagree (1) | 74 | 6.38 | 7.07 | 7.07
## 2 | disagree (2) | 387 | 33.36 | 37.00 | 44.07
## 3 | agree (3) | 333 | 28.71 | 31.84 | 75.91
## 4 | strongly agree (4) | 252 | 21.72 | 24.09 | 100.00
## <NA> | <NA> | 114 | 9.83 | <NA> | <NA>plot_frq(voter1r$Q8r)
# sjmisc;;frq(voter1r$Q9r)
frq(voter1r$Q9r)##
## politicians will do things hard (x) <categorical>
## # total N=1160 valid N=984 mean=2.44 sd=0.81
##
## Value | Label | N | Raw % | Valid % | Cum. %
## --------------------------------------------------------------
## 1 | strongly disagree (1) | 132 | 11.38 | 13.41 | 13.41
## 2 | disagree (2) | 357 | 30.78 | 36.28 | 49.70
## 3 | agree (3) | 426 | 36.72 | 43.29 | 92.99
## 4 | strongly agree (4) | 69 | 5.95 | 7.01 | 100.00
## <NA> | <NA> | 176 | 15.17 | <NA> | <NA>plot_frq(voter1r$Q9r)
# sjmisc;;frq(voter1r$AGE)
frq(voter1r$AGE)##
## AGE (x) <categorical>
## # total N=1160 valid N=1130 mean=3.61 sd=1.35
##
## Value | Label | N | Raw % | Valid % | Cum. %
## ----------------------------------------------
## 1 | 20~29 | 117 | 10.09 | 10.35 | 10.35
## 2 | 30~39 | 133 | 11.47 | 11.77 | 22.12
## 3 | 40~49 | 240 | 20.69 | 21.24 | 43.36
## 4 | 50~50 | 227 | 19.57 | 20.09 | 63.45
## 5 | 60up | 413 | 35.60 | 36.55 | 100.00
## <NA> | <NA> | 30 | 2.59 | <NA> | <NA>plot_frq(voter1r$AGE)
單一變數分析
## 從問題7、8、9的調查結果顯示，超過六成以上(約66.4%)的民眾悲觀認為政治人物在當選後，會立即與民意脫節。反映出大部分民眾均認為存在民主代議士制度下缺失的問題，也就是到底民意代表當選後，是會代表誰的利益?選區民眾?全國人民?利益團體?亦或是政黨呢?
## 但有趣的是，在認為同意政治人物並不會關心像我這樣一般百姓的想法，以及民眾是同意政治人物會用心為一般百姓做事的問題，表示同意與不同意的差距縮小了，約有五成的民眾還是樂觀相信政治人物會認真做事。
## 本次抽樣顯示，六十歲以上的民眾最多(約36.5%)，可能是因調查方式電話訪問(電話簿抽樣與資料庫併用)所致。假設
## 假設:
## H0:年齡與政治道德認知有關。
## H1:年齡與政治道德認知無關。製表與繪圖
## 製表與繪圖
library(sjPlot)
sjt.xtab(voter1r$Q7r, voter1r$AGE, show.row.prc="TRUE", show.col.prc= "TRUE", tdcol.col = "gray", tdcol.row = "brown")|
politicians do not value public opiniom |
AGE | Total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20~29 | 30~39 | 40~49 | 50~50 | 60up | ||
|
strongly disagree (1) |
4 5.7 % 3.6 % |
7 10 % 5.5 % |
12 17.1 % 5.2 % |
12 17.1 % 5.8 % |
35 50 % 11 % |
70 100 % 7 % |
| disagree (2) |
41 15.4 % 36.6 % |
40 15 % 31.5 % |
60 22.6 % 26.1 % |
49 18.4 % 23.6 % |
76 28.6 % 23.9 % |
266 100 % 26.7 % |
| agree (3) |
48 12.2 % 42.9 % |
53 13.5 % 41.7 % |
80 20.4 % 34.8 % |
87 22.1 % 41.8 % |
125 31.8 % 39.3 % |
393 100 % 39.5 % |
| strongly agree (4) |
19 7.1 % 17 % |
27 10.2 % 21.3 % |
78 29.3 % 33.9 % |
60 22.6 % 28.8 % |
82 30.8 % 25.8 % |
266 100 % 26.7 % |
| Total |
112 11.3 % 100 % |
127 12.8 % 100 % |
230 23.1 % 100 % |
208 20.9 % 100 % |
318 32 % 100 % |
995 100 % 100 % |
χ2=30.323 · df=12 · Cramer’s V=0.101 · p=0.002 |
sjt.xtab(voter1r$Q8r, voter1r$AGE, show.row.prc="TRUE", show.col.prc= "TRUE", tdcol.col = "gray", tdcol.row = "brown")|
politicians don’t care about the people |
AGE | Total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20~29 | 30~39 | 40~49 | 50~50 | 60up | ||
|
strongly disagree (1) |
10 13.7 % 8.7 % |
8 11 % 6.2 % |
11 15.1 % 4.7 % |
14 19.2 % 6.7 % |
30 41.1 % 8.9 % |
73 100 % 7.1 % |
| disagree (2) |
55 14.4 % 47.8 % |
63 16.5 % 48.5 % |
90 23.6 % 38.6 % |
74 19.4 % 35.4 % |
99 26 % 29.4 % |
381 100 % 37.2 % |
| agree (3) |
38 11.7 % 33 % |
33 10.2 % 25.4 % |
65 20 % 27.9 % |
73 22.5 % 34.9 % |
116 35.7 % 34.4 % |
325 100 % 31.7 % |
| strongly agree (4) |
12 4.9 % 10.4 % |
26 10.6 % 20 % |
67 27.3 % 28.8 % |
48 19.6 % 23 % |
92 37.6 % 27.3 % |
245 100 % 23.9 % |
| Total |
115 11.2 % 100 % |
130 12.7 % 100 % |
233 22.8 % 100 % |
209 20.4 % 100 % |
337 32.9 % 100 % |
1024 100 % 100 % |
χ2=35.551 · df=12 · Cramer’s V=0.108 · p=0.000 |
sjt.xtab(voter1r$Q9r, voter1r$AGE, show.row.prc="TRUE", show.col.prc= "TRUE", tdcol.col = "gray", tdcol.row = "brown")|
politicians will do things hard |
AGE | Total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20~29 | 30~39 | 40~49 | 50~50 | 60up | ||
|
strongly disagree (1) |
12 9.2 % 10.8 % |
10 7.6 % 7.8 % |
30 22.9 % 13.7 % |
26 19.8 % 13.2 % |
53 40.5 % 17 % |
131 100 % 13.6 % |
| disagree (2) |
29 8.3 % 26.1 % |
48 13.8 % 37.5 % |
96 27.5 % 43.8 % |
89 25.5 % 45.2 % |
87 24.9 % 28 % |
349 100 % 36.1 % |
| agree (3) |
67 16 % 60.4 % |
65 15.6 % 50.8 % |
84 20.1 % 38.4 % |
72 17.2 % 36.5 % |
130 31.1 % 41.8 % |
418 100 % 43.3 % |
| strongly agree (4) |
3 4.4 % 2.7 % |
5 7.4 % 3.9 % |
9 13.2 % 4.1 % |
10 14.7 % 5.1 % |
41 60.3 % 13.2 % |
68 100 % 7 % |
| Total |
111 11.5 % 100 % |
128 13.3 % 100 % |
219 22.7 % 100 % |
197 20.4 % 100 % |
311 32.2 % 100 % |
966 100 % 100 % |
χ2=61.241 · df=12 · Cramer’s V=0.145 · p=0.000 |
library(sjlabelled)
plot_grpfrq (voter1r$Q7r, voter1r$AGE) 
plot_grpfrq (voter1r$Q7r, voter1r$AGE, bar.pos = "stack") 
plot_grpfrq (voter1r$Q8r, voter1r$AGE) 
plot_grpfrq (voter1r$Q8r, voter1r$AGE, bar.pos = "stack")
plot_grpfrq (voter1r$Q9r, voter1r$AGE) 
plot_grpfrq (voter1r$Q9r, voter1r$AGE, bar.pos = "stack")
研究發現分析
## 上述問題7、8、9，加上年齡變數來檢測，發現六十歲以上的民眾呈現比較矛盾的情形，認為政治人物當選後就會脫離民意、不重視人民的意見，卻也相信政治人物會認真做事。而年輕世代(20~29歲)的民眾，同意政治人物當選後會脫離民意，但比較不認同政治人物不重視一般民眾的意見，也比較能認同政治人物會努力做事，對於政治人物的作為是更有信心的。
## 只是卡方檢定的結果，問題7、8或9與年齡之間是不具顯著相關性(Cramer's V均為0.1左右)，也就是政治道德認知與受訪者的年齡無關。