Overview

Six models are used to forecast each major age class of sockeye salmon in the major rivers of Bristol Bay. Five of these models are linear regressions and the sixth is a 5-year running average of the age class under consideration.

Forecast models

This document covers output from five linnear regression models run against four major age classes in this river. Three regressions are variations of the sibling relationship with the age being forecast (Table 1). The first regression (sibling) uses observed forecast age and the brood year younger sibling return. The second regression (ln.sibling) uses a natural log transformation of both the forecasted age and the sibling return. The third regression (lnY.sibling) uses the sibling age return and a natural log transformation of the forecasted age. Two linnear regression models based on forecasted age return and total spawning escapment. The first of these (lnS.lnR) is the natural log of the forecasted age class regressed against the natural log of the spawning escapement. The second forecast method that relies on the relationship between the forecasted age and the spawning escapement is a linnear transformation of the Ricker relationship.

Table 1. Forecast ages and the sibling age class used for forecasting.

Forecast Age Sibling
Age.12 Age.11
Age.22 Age.21
Age.13 Age.12
Age.23 Age.22

Output

Each model output consists of a table and two graphs. The table shows the most recent 10 years of observed returns for the age being forecast (‘Observed Return’) and the relevant sibling return (‘Sibling Return’) shown in bold black text. Brood and return years are shown in blue text. Two regression model statistics (R-squared and P-value of the slope) are shown in red. Model forecasted returns are shown in bold black text with a yellow highlight. Error measurements are shown in green text. Error measurements shown are absolute deviation (AD), absolute percent error (APE), percent error (PE) and arc tan percent error (AAPE).

After the table summarizing the model output for the most recenet ten years, two graphs are shown for each of the linnear regression models. The first graph is a scatter plot of the data with a linnear regression superimposed. The second graph is a plot of the residuals of the regression analysis.

Absolute deviation (AD) is defined as

\[\ AD = O - F\] where

O = Observed Return

F = Forecasted Return

Percent error (PE) is defined as

\[\ PE = (F - O)/O\] Absolute Percent error (APE) is defined as

\[\ APE = |(F - O)/O|\]

Arctangent percent error (AAPE) is defined (Kim and Kim, 2016) as \[\ AAPE = arctan(|((O - F)/O)|)\]

At the end of the model output section for each age class, a performance table is presented that contains the mean absolute deviation (MAD), neam absolute percent error (MAPE), mean percent error (MPE) and mean arctanget percent error (MAAPE). These performance metrics are calculated and presented across the most recent three and five years. Color bars show the relative size of each metric.

age.12

Below are model outputs using data from 1973

sibling

Return Yr Brood Yr Observed Return Sibling Return R Sq P-val Forecasted Return AD APE PE AAPE
2012 2008 1,046,765 7,974 0.018 0.210 1,135,577 88,811 0.08 0.08 0.08
2013 2009 376,195 8,822 0.019 0.203 1,147,993 771,797 0.67 0.67 1.12
2014 2010 578,974 10,043 0.018 0.206 1,147,764 568,790 0.50 0.50 0.78
2015 2011 2,738,603 64,031 0.017 0.209 2,051,479 687,124 0.33 -0.33 0.25
2016 2012 3,480,574 104,693 0.071 0.056 3,154,645 325,929 0.10 -0.10 0.09
2017 2013 3,860,507 29,906 0.172 0.005 1,615,735 2,244,772 1.39 -1.39 0.53
2018 2014 2,596,182 70,410 0.188 0.003 2,724,986 128,804 0.05 0.05 0.05
2019 2015 1,880,556 13,554 0.213 0.001 1,299,922 580,633 0.45 -0.45 0.30
2020 2016 3,056,856 53,838 0.212 0.001 2,308,219 748,637 0.32 -0.32 0.24
2021 2017 NA 105,059 0.243 0.000 3,705,519 NA NA NA NA

ln.sibling

Return Yr Brood Yr Observed Return Sibling Return R Sq P-val Forecasted Return AD APE PE AAPE
2012 2008 1,046,765 7,974 0.274 0.001 1,100,332 53,566 0.05 0.05 0.05
2013 2009 376,195 8,822 0.277 0.001 1,119,706 743,511 0.66 0.66 1.10
2014 2010 578,974 10,043 0.260 0.001 1,094,553 515,579 0.47 0.47 0.73
2015 2011 2,738,603 64,031 0.254 0.001 1,497,306 1,241,297 0.83 -0.83 0.43
2016 2012 3,480,574 104,693 0.275 0.000 1,712,704 1,767,870 1.03 -1.03 0.47
2017 2013 3,860,507 29,906 0.300 0.000 1,409,273 2,451,234 1.74 -1.74 0.57
2018 2014 2,596,182 70,410 0.316 0.000 1,761,730 834,453 0.47 -0.47 0.31
2019 2015 1,880,556 13,554 0.331 0.000 1,281,660 598,896 0.47 -0.47 0.31
2020 2016 3,056,856 53,838 0.338 0.000 1,732,327 1,324,530 0.76 -0.76 0.41
2021 2017 NA 105,059 0.352 0.000 2,053,994 NA NA NA NA

lnY.sibling

Return Yr Brood Yr Observed Return Sibling Return R Sq P-val Forecasted Return AD APE PE AAPE
2012 2008 1,046,765 7,974 0.034 0.149 670,352 376,413 0.56 -0.56 0.35
2013 2009 376,195 8,822 0.035 0.142 692,397 316,202 0.46 0.46 0.70
2014 2010 578,974 10,043 0.034 0.140 700,376 121,402 0.17 0.17 0.21
2015 2011 2,738,603 64,031 0.035 0.136 2,428,737 309,867 0.13 -0.13 0.11
2016 2012 3,480,574 104,693 0.070 0.058 6,683,723 3,203,149 0.48 0.48 0.74
2017 2013 3,860,507 29,906 0.108 0.022 1,037,138 2,823,369 2.72 -2.72 0.63
2018 2014 2,596,182 70,410 0.122 0.014 2,656,381 60,198 0.02 0.02 0.02
2019 2015 1,880,556 13,554 0.144 0.008 767,539 1,113,017 1.45 -1.45 0.53
2020 2016 3,056,856 53,838 0.143 0.007 1,886,301 1,170,555 0.62 -0.62 0.37
2021 2017 NA 105,059 0.164 0.004 6,276,356 NA NA NA NA

lnS.lnR

Return Yr Brood Yr Observed Return Spawner Return R Sq P-val Forecasted Return AD APE PE AAPE
2012 2008 1,046,765 596,332 0.361 0 523,237 523,528 1.00 -1.00 0.46
2013 2009 376,195 1,364,338 0.356 0 1,023,202 647,007 0.63 0.63 1.04
2014 2010 578,974 830,886 0.342 0 674,136 95,162 0.14 0.14 0.16
2015 2011 2,738,603 1,029,853 0.342 0 791,899 1,946,704 2.46 -2.46 0.62
2016 2012 3,480,574 695,018 0.339 0 603,455 2,877,119 4.77 -4.77 0.69
2017 2013 3,860,507 898,110 0.317 0 769,009 3,091,497 4.02 -4.02 0.68
2018 2014 2,596,182 640,158 0.307 0 615,307 1,980,876 3.22 -3.22 0.65
2019 2015 1,880,556 1,564,638 0.292 0 1,266,955 613,600 0.48 -0.48 0.32
2020 2016 3,056,856 1,635,270 0.299 0 1,329,975 1,726,882 1.30 -1.30 0.51
2021 2017 NA 1,186,446 0.308 0 1,063,447 NA NA NA NA

ricker

Return Yr Brood Yr Observed Return Spawner Return R Sq P-val Forecasted Return AD APE PE AAPE
2012 2008 1,046,765 596,332 0.068 0.071 607,009 439,756 0.72 -0.72 0.40
2013 2009 376,195 1,364,338 0.075 0.058 1,009,777 633,581 0.63 0.63 1.03
2014 2010 578,974 830,886 0.080 0.050 761,271 182,297 0.24 0.24 0.31
2015 2011 2,738,603 1,029,853 0.079 0.048 854,975 1,883,628 2.20 -2.20 0.60
2016 2012 3,480,574 695,018 0.077 0.048 692,925 2,787,649 4.02 -4.02 0.68
2017 2013 3,860,507 898,110 0.084 0.038 853,727 3,006,780 3.52 -3.52 0.66
2018 2014 2,596,182 640,158 0.084 0.037 719,769 1,876,413 2.61 -2.61 0.63
2019 2015 1,880,556 1,564,638 0.093 0.028 1,125,337 755,219 0.67 -0.67 0.38
2020 2016 3,056,856 1,635,270 0.088 0.030 1,155,868 1,900,988 1.64 -1.64 0.56
2021 2017 NA 1,186,446 0.078 0.037 1,083,727 NA NA NA NA

average

Return Yr Brood Yr Observed Return Forecasted Return AD APE PE AAPE
2012 2008 1,046,765.3 1,847,810 801,045 0.43 0.43 0.65
2013 2009 376,195.4 1,116,807 740,612 0.66 0.66 1.10
2014 2010 578,973.6 928,150 349,176 0.38 0.38 0.54
2015 2011 2,738,603.2 868,700 1,869,903 2.15 -2.15 0.60
2016 2012 3,480,574.0 1,203,037 2,277,537 1.89 -1.89 0.58
2017 2013 3,860,506.7 1,644,222 2,216,284 1.35 -1.35 0.52
2018 2014 2,596,182.4 2,206,971 389,212 0.18 -0.18 0.15
2019 2015 1,880,555.7 2,650,968 770,412 0.29 0.29 0.39
2020 2016 3,056,856.3 2,911,284 145,572 0.05 -0.05 0.05
2021 2017 NA 2,974,935 NA NA NA NA

Performance summary

We have a very large sibling return here. Most recent comparable return got us 3.4m. Sibling model performs best and forecasts 3.7m. In an effort to hedge for upside risk, taking all sibling models in a basket approach gets us to 3.9m

model range MAD MAPE MPE MAAPE
sibling 5 years 805,755 46.22% -44.33% 0.24
sibling 3 years 486,025 27.28% -24.12% 0.20
ln.sibling 5 years 1,395,397 89.54% -89.54% 0.41
ln.sibling 3 years 919,293 56.85% -56.85% 0.34
lnY.sibling 5 years 1,674,058 105.90% -85.82% 0.46
lnY.sibling 3 years 781,257 69.78% -68.27% 0.31
lnS.lnR 5 years 2,057,995 275.80% -275.80% 0.57
lnS.lnR 3 years 1,440,453 166.74% -166.74% 0.49
ricker 5 years 2,065,410 249.35% -249.35% 0.58
ricker 3 years 1,510,873 164.09% -164.09% 0.52
average 5 years 1,159,804 75.16% -63.54% 0.34
average 3 years 435,065 17.23% 2.14% 0.20

age.22

Below are model outputs using data from 1973

sibling

Return Yr Brood Yr Observed Return Sibling Return R Sq P-val Forecasted Return AD APE PE AAPE
2012 2007 697,496 1,274,646 -0.023 0.619 1,088,648 391,152 0.36 0.36 0.51
2013 2008 332,158 1,046,765 -0.022 0.607 1,095,265 763,106 0.70 0.70 1.16
2014 2009 144,293 376,195 -0.021 0.610 1,126,270 981,977 0.87 0.87 1.42
2015 2010 441,803 578,974 -0.024 0.688 1,075,152 633,349 0.59 0.59 0.96
2016 2011 1,304,626 2,738,603 -0.024 0.723 939,758 364,868 0.39 -0.39 0.27
2017 2012 653,764 3,480,574 -0.025 0.782 941,299 287,535 0.31 0.31 0.41
2018 2013 56,488 3,860,507 -0.022 0.691 883,110 826,622 0.94 0.94 1.50
2019 2014 53,209 2,596,182 -0.011 0.464 878,421 825,212 0.94 0.94 1.51
2020 2015 325,110 1,880,556 -0.004 0.370 912,959 587,849 0.64 0.64 1.07
2021 2016 NA 3,056,856 -0.002 0.340 759,246 NA NA NA NA

ln.sibling

Return Yr Brood Yr Observed Return Sibling Return R Sq P-val Forecasted Return AD APE PE AAPE
2012 2007 697,496 1,274,646 -0.012 0.438 667,130 30,366 0.05 -0.05 0.04
2013 2008 332,158 1,046,765 -0.011 0.427 648,801 316,643 0.49 0.49 0.76
2014 2009 144,293 376,195 -0.011 0.438 548,089 403,796 0.74 0.74 1.23
2015 2010 441,803 578,974 -0.007 0.396 561,698 119,894 0.21 0.21 0.26
2016 2011 1,304,626 2,738,603 -0.006 0.388 713,351 591,275 0.83 -0.83 0.43
2017 2012 653,764 3,480,574 -0.001 0.331 771,162 117,398 0.15 0.15 0.18
2018 2013 56,488 3,860,507 0.000 0.326 775,931 719,444 0.93 0.93 1.49
2019 2014 53,209 2,596,182 -0.017 0.569 622,882 569,673 0.91 0.91 1.48
2020 2015 325,110 1,880,556 -0.023 0.772 544,753 219,643 0.40 0.40 0.59
2021 2016 NA 3,056,856 -0.023 0.801 546,204 NA NA NA NA

lnY.sibling

Return Yr Brood Yr Observed Return Sibling Return R Sq P-val Forecasted Return AD APE PE AAPE
2012 2007 697,496 1,274,646 0.000 0.328 580,439 117,056 0.20 -0.20 0.17
2013 2008 332,158 1,046,765 0.000 0.322 612,925 280,767 0.46 0.46 0.70
2014 2009 144,293 376,195 0.001 0.318 695,731 551,438 0.79 0.79 1.31
2015 2010 441,803 578,974 -0.006 0.382 629,493 187,690 0.30 0.30 0.40
2016 2011 1,304,626 2,738,603 -0.006 0.385 419,375 885,252 2.11 -2.11 0.60
2017 2012 653,764 3,480,574 -0.013 0.486 416,027 237,737 0.57 -0.57 0.35
2018 2013 56,488 3,860,507 -0.015 0.525 421,946 365,458 0.87 0.87 1.42
2019 2014 53,209 2,596,182 0.011 0.236 412,249 359,040 0.87 0.87 1.42
2020 2015 325,110 1,880,556 0.027 0.151 444,720 119,610 0.27 0.27 0.35
2021 2016 NA 3,056,856 0.029 0.140 323,527 NA NA NA NA

lnS.lnR

Return Yr Brood Yr Observed Return Spawner Return R Sq P-val Forecasted Return AD APE PE AAPE
2012 2007 697,496 2,599,186 0.118 0.027 1,168,764 471,268 0.40 0.40 0.59
2013 2008 332,158 596,332 0.115 0.026 523,441 191,283 0.37 0.37 0.52
2014 2009 144,293 1,364,338 0.117 0.023 796,752 652,459 0.82 0.82 1.35
2015 2010 441,803 830,886 0.100 0.032 585,872 144,069 0.25 0.25 0.32
2016 2011 1,304,626 1,029,853 0.100 0.030 646,829 657,797 1.02 -1.02 0.47
2017 2012 653,764 695,018 0.103 0.026 541,523 112,241 0.21 -0.21 0.17
2018 2013 56,488 898,110 0.103 0.025 618,604 562,116 0.91 0.91 1.47
2019 2014 53,209 640,158 0.090 0.032 493,514 440,304 0.89 0.89 1.45
2020 2015 325,110 1,564,638 0.089 0.031 733,467 408,357 0.56 0.56 0.90
2021 2016 NA 1,635,270 0.084 0.033 727,743 NA NA NA NA

ricker

Return Yr Brood Yr Observed Return Spawner Return R Sq P-val Forecasted Return AD APE PE AAPE
2012 2007 697,496 2,599,186 0.030 0.165 974,459 276,963 0.28 0.28 0.38
2013 2008 332,158 596,332 0.047 0.111 584,812 252,654 0.43 0.43 0.65
2014 2009 144,293 1,364,338 0.044 0.114 896,761 752,468 0.84 0.84 1.38
2015 2010 441,803 830,886 0.050 0.098 680,480 238,677 0.35 0.35 0.50
2016 2011 1,304,626 1,029,853 0.049 0.097 751,677 552,950 0.74 -0.74 0.40
2017 2012 653,764 695,018 0.050 0.092 611,629 42,135 0.07 -0.07 0.06
2018 2013 56,488 898,110 0.051 0.086 713,005 656,517 0.92 0.92 1.48
2019 2014 53,209 640,158 0.040 0.111 541,344 488,135 0.90 0.90 1.46
2020 2015 325,110 1,564,638 0.026 0.157 811,603 486,493 0.60 0.60 0.98
2021 2016 NA 1,635,270 0.032 0.131 793,191 NA NA NA NA

average

Return Yr Brood Yr Observed Return Forecasted Return AD APE PE AAPE
2012 2007 697,495.68 737,738 40,243 0.05 0.05 0.06
2013 2008 332,158.15 816,119 483,960 0.59 0.59 0.97
2014 2009 144,293.15 875,419 731,126 0.84 0.84 1.38
2015 2010 441,803.28 656,652 214,849 0.33 0.33 0.45
2016 2011 1,304,626.36 510,170 794,456 1.56 -1.56 0.55
2017 2012 653,764.07 584,075 69,689 0.12 -0.12 0.11
2018 2013 56,487.63 575,329 518,841 0.90 0.90 1.46
2019 2014 53,209.32 520,195 466,986 0.90 0.90 1.46
2020 2015 325,109.96 501,978 176,868 0.35 0.35 0.50
2021 2016 NA 478,639 NA NA NA NA

Performance summary

Model performance is pretty comparable. The lnS.lnR and ricker relationships are unconvincing. Throwing those models out gives us a weighted basket forecasting 636,000.

model range MAD MAPE MPE MAAPE
sibling 5 years 578,417 64.26% 48.73% 0.95
sibling 3 years 746,561 83.98% 83.98% 1.36
ln.sibling 5 years 443,487 64.52% 31.37% 0.83
ln.sibling 3 years 502,920 74.83% 74.83% 1.19
lnY.sibling 5 years 393,419 93.77% -13.53% 0.83
lnY.sibling 3 years 281,369 66.87% 66.87% 1.06
lnS.lnR 5 years 436,163 71.64% 22.67% 0.89
lnS.lnR 3 years 470,259 78.59% 78.59% 1.27
ricker 5 years 445,246 64.53% 32.35% 0.88
ricker 3 years 543,715 80.73% 80.73% 1.31
average 5 years 405,368 76.57% 9.51% 0.81
average 3 years 387,565 71.73% 71.73% 1.14

age.13

Below are model outputs using data from 1973

sibling

Return Yr Brood Yr Observed Return Sibling Return R Sq P-val Forecasted Return AD APE PE AAPE
2012 2007 929,950 1,274,646 0.154 0.012 1,293,282 363,332 0.28 0.28 0.37
2013 2008 1,728,705 1,046,765 0.153 0.012 1,202,802 525,903 0.44 -0.44 0.30
2014 2009 317,078 376,195 0.152 0.011 983,013 665,935 0.68 0.68 1.13
2015 2010 790,184 578,974 0.161 0.008 1,029,966 239,782 0.23 0.23 0.29
2016 2011 2,087,482 2,738,603 0.165 0.007 1,808,594 278,888 0.15 -0.15 0.13
2017 2012 1,582,991 3,480,574 0.184 0.004 2,110,120 527,129 0.25 0.25 0.32
2018 2013 2,008,451 3,860,507 0.180 0.004 2,173,399 164,948 0.08 0.08 0.08
2019 2014 1,576,519 2,596,182 0.195 0.002 1,716,729 140,209 0.08 0.08 0.09
2020 2015 1,618,650 1,880,556 0.198 0.002 1,466,584 152,065 0.10 -0.10 0.09
2021 2016 NA 3,056,856 0.201 0.002 1,871,619 NA NA NA NA

ln.sibling

Return Yr Brood Yr Observed Return Sibling Return R Sq P-val Forecasted Return AD APE PE AAPE
2012 2007 929,950 1,274,646 0.653 0 1,419,676 489,726 0.34 0.34 0.48
2013 2008 1,728,705 1,046,765 0.650 0 1,177,870 550,835 0.47 -0.47 0.31
2014 2009 317,078 376,195 0.652 0 488,477 171,399 0.35 0.35 0.50
2015 2010 790,184 578,974 0.654 0 702,796 87,388 0.12 -0.12 0.11
2016 2011 2,087,482 2,738,603 0.654 0 2,750,412 662,930 0.24 0.24 0.31
2017 2012 1,582,991 3,480,574 0.658 0 3,331,685 1,748,694 0.52 0.52 0.84
2018 2013 2,008,451 3,860,507 0.652 0 3,457,740 1,449,289 0.42 0.42 0.63
2019 2014 1,576,519 2,596,182 0.652 0 2,391,736 815,216 0.34 0.34 0.48
2020 2015 1,618,650 1,880,556 0.652 0 1,795,979 177,330 0.10 0.10 0.11
2021 2016 NA 3,056,856 0.654 0 2,671,577 NA NA NA NA

lnY.sibling

Return Yr Brood Yr Observed Return Sibling Return R Sq P-val Forecasted Return AD APE PE AAPE
2012 2007 929,950 1,274,646 0.153 0.013 845,661 84,288 0.10 -0.10 0.09
2013 2008 1,728,705 1,046,765 0.154 0.011 752,819 975,886 1.30 -1.30 0.51
2014 2009 317,078 376,195 0.152 0.011 543,219 226,141 0.42 0.42 0.62
2015 2010 790,184 578,974 0.159 0.008 592,197 197,987 0.33 -0.33 0.25
2016 2011 2,087,482 2,738,603 0.158 0.008 1,865,835 221,647 0.12 -0.12 0.11
2017 2012 1,582,991 3,480,574 0.171 0.005 2,793,809 1,210,818 0.43 0.43 0.65
2018 2013 2,008,451 3,860,507 0.173 0.004 3,139,713 1,131,262 0.36 0.36 0.51
2019 2014 1,576,519 2,596,182 0.181 0.003 1,595,324 18,805 0.01 0.01 0.01
2020 2015 1,618,650 1,880,556 0.187 0.002 1,127,752 490,897 0.44 -0.44 0.29
2021 2016 NA 3,056,856 0.190 0.002 2,022,094 NA NA NA NA

lnS.lnR

Return Yr Brood Yr Observed Return Spawner Return R Sq P-val Forecasted Return AD APE PE AAPE
2012 2007 929,950 2,599,186 0.426 0 2,448,915 1,518,965 0.62 0.62 1.02
2013 2008 1,728,705 596,332 0.412 0 608,340 1,120,365 1.84 -1.84 0.58
2014 2009 317,078 1,364,338 0.401 0 1,311,229 994,151 0.76 0.76 1.26
2015 2010 790,184 830,886 0.378 0 810,606 20,423 0.03 0.03 0.03
2016 2011 2,087,482 1,029,853 0.378 0 975,757 1,111,725 1.14 -1.14 0.49
2017 2012 1,582,991 695,018 0.379 0 706,991 875,999 1.24 -1.24 0.51
2018 2013 2,008,451 898,110 0.374 0 901,894 1,106,557 1.23 -1.23 0.50
2019 2014 1,576,519 640,158 0.372 0 684,727 891,793 1.30 -1.30 0.51
2020 2015 1,618,650 1,564,638 0.366 0 1,517,496 101,153 0.07 -0.07 0.06
2021 2016 NA 1,635,270 0.370 0 1,580,490 NA NA NA NA

ricker

Return Yr Brood Yr Observed Return Spawner Return R Sq P-val Forecasted Return AD APE PE AAPE
2012 2007 929,950 2,599,186 0.042 0.128 1,432,626 502,677 0.35 0.35 0.50
2013 2008 1,728,705 596,332 0.067 0.073 727,393 1,001,312 1.38 -1.38 0.53
2014 2009 317,078 1,364,338 0.076 0.057 1,216,888 899,810 0.74 0.74 1.23
2015 2010 790,184 830,886 0.081 0.049 914,306 124,122 0.14 0.14 0.16
2016 2011 2,087,482 1,029,853 0.081 0.046 1,027,323 1,060,159 1.03 -1.03 0.47
2017 2012 1,582,991 695,018 0.081 0.044 827,243 755,748 0.91 -0.91 0.45
2018 2013 2,008,451 898,110 0.086 0.037 988,874 1,019,577 1.03 -1.03 0.47
2019 2014 1,576,519 640,158 0.088 0.033 814,771 761,748 0.93 -0.93 0.45
2020 2015 1,618,650 1,564,638 0.094 0.027 1,275,017 343,633 0.27 -0.27 0.21
2021 2016 NA 1,635,270 0.093 0.026 1,297,803 NA NA NA NA

average

Return Yr Brood Yr Observed Return Forecasted Return AD APE PE AAPE
2012 2007 929,949.7 1,737,083 807,134 0.46 0.46 0.71
2013 2008 1,728,705.0 1,489,575 239,130 0.16 -0.16 0.14
2014 2009 317,077.9 1,528,847 1,211,769 0.79 0.79 1.31
2015 2010 790,183.5 1,273,444 483,260 0.38 0.38 0.55
2016 2011 2,087,481.8 968,670 1,118,811 1.15 -1.15 0.49
2017 2012 1,582,990.7 1,170,680 412,311 0.35 -0.35 0.25
2018 2013 2,008,451.0 1,301,288 707,163 0.54 -0.54 0.34
2019 2014 1,576,519.5 1,357,237 219,283 0.16 -0.16 0.14
2020 2015 1,618,649.6 1,609,125 9,524 0.01 -0.01 0.01
2021 2016 NA 1,774,819 NA NA NA NA

Performance summary

The sibling relationship looks better than the spawner relationship. A basket of sibling & avg models gives us 1.9m. Most recent similar sibling return got us 2m so this seems about right.

model range MAD MAPE MPE MAAPE
sibling 5 years 252,648 13.31% 2.99% 0.14
sibling 3 years 152,408 8.71% 1.80% 0.09
ln.sibling 5 years 970,692 32.49% 32.49% 0.47
ln.sibling 3 years 813,945 28.62% 28.62% 0.40
lnY.sibling 5 years 614,686 27.19% 5.03% 0.32
lnY.sibling 3 years 546,988 26.91% -2.11% 0.27
lnS.lnR 5 years 817,445 99.49% -99.49% 0.42
lnS.lnR 3 years 699,834 86.53% -86.53% 0.36
ricker 5 years 788,173 83.62% -83.62% 0.41
ricker 3 years 708,320 74.52% -74.52% 0.38
average 5 years 493,419 44.36% -44.36% 0.25
average 3 years 311,990 23.70% -23.70% 0.16

age.23

Below are model outputs using data from 1972

sibling

Return Yr Brood Yr Observed Return Sibling Return R Sq P-val Forecasted Return AD APE PE AAPE
2012 2006 223,141 935,099 0.343 0 485,684 262,543 0.54 0.54 0.87
2013 2007 180,507 697,496 0.343 0 389,347 208,840 0.54 0.54 0.86
2014 2008 39,860 332,158 0.346 0 245,456 205,596 0.84 0.84 1.38
2015 2009 132,478 144,293 0.355 0 165,310 32,832 0.20 0.20 0.24
2016 2010 283,973 441,803 0.362 0 277,024 6,949 0.03 -0.03 0.02
2017 2011 495,528 1,304,626 0.365 0 605,844 110,315 0.18 0.18 0.22
2018 2012 84,332 653,764 0.364 0 355,569 271,237 0.76 0.76 1.27
2019 2013 31,764 56,488 0.367 0 119,420 87,656 0.73 0.73 1.22
2020 2014 29,189 53,209 0.376 0 113,921 84,732 0.74 0.74 1.24
2021 2015 NA 325,110 0.385 0 215,263 NA NA NA NA

ln.sibling

Return Yr Brood Yr Observed Return Sibling Return R Sq P-val Forecasted Return AD APE PE AAPE
2012 2006 223,141 935,099 0.681 0 406,499 183,359 0.45 0.45 0.69
2013 2007 180,507 697,496 0.676 0 316,697 136,190 0.43 0.43 0.65
2014 2008 39,860 332,158 0.671 0 174,203 134,343 0.77 0.77 1.28
2015 2009 132,478 144,293 0.656 0 85,596 46,882 0.55 -0.55 0.34
2016 2010 283,973 441,803 0.655 0 211,523 72,450 0.34 -0.34 0.25
2017 2011 495,528 1,304,626 0.654 0 499,738 4,210 0.01 0.01 0.01
2018 2012 84,332 653,764 0.657 0 290,095 205,763 0.71 0.71 1.18
2019 2013 31,764 56,488 0.640 0 41,258 9,494 0.23 0.23 0.29
2020 2014 29,189 53,209 0.661 0 38,410 9,221 0.24 0.24 0.31
2021 2015 NA 325,110 0.680 0 159,485 NA NA NA NA

lnY.sibling

Return Yr Brood Yr Observed Return Sibling Return R Sq P-val Forecasted Return AD APE PE AAPE
2012 2006 223,141 935,099 0.486 0 239,460 16,319 0.07 0.07 0.07
2013 2007 180,507 697,496 0.487 0 190,227 9,719 0.05 0.05 0.05
2014 2008 39,860 332,158 0.489 0 133,697 93,837 0.70 0.70 1.17
2015 2009 132,478 144,293 0.495 0 105,498 26,981 0.26 -0.26 0.20
2016 2010 283,973 441,803 0.498 0 142,847 141,126 0.99 -0.99 0.46
2017 2011 495,528 1,304,626 0.491 0 337,791 157,737 0.47 -0.47 0.31
2018 2012 84,332 653,764 0.493 0 181,228 96,896 0.53 0.53 0.85
2019 2013 31,764 56,488 0.494 0 98,746 66,982 0.68 0.68 1.13
2020 2014 29,189 53,209 0.506 0 93,169 63,980 0.69 0.69 1.14
2021 2015 NA 325,110 0.518 0 117,163 NA NA NA NA

lnS.lnR

Return Yr Brood Yr Observed Return Spawner Return R Sq P-val Forecasted Return AD APE PE AAPE
2012 2006 223,141 1,003,158 0.169 0.009 335,030 111,890 0.33 0.33 0.46
2013 2007 180,507 2,599,186 0.167 0.009 561,699 381,191 0.68 0.68 1.13
2014 2008 39,860 596,332 0.149 0.011 241,861 202,001 0.84 0.84 1.38
2015 2009 132,478 1,364,338 0.146 0.011 356,038 223,559 0.63 0.63 1.04
2016 2010 283,973 830,886 0.137 0.013 266,458 17,515 0.07 -0.07 0.06
2017 2011 495,528 1,029,853 0.138 0.011 297,981 197,548 0.66 -0.66 0.38
2018 2012 84,332 695,018 0.141 0.010 246,565 162,233 0.66 0.66 1.09
2019 2013 31,764 898,110 0.140 0.009 274,363 242,599 0.88 0.88 1.44
2020 2014 29,189 640,158 0.125 0.013 218,950 189,761 0.87 0.87 1.42
2021 2015 NA 1,564,638 0.121 0.013 331,523 NA NA NA NA

ricker

Return Yr Brood Yr Observed Return Spawner Return R Sq P-val Forecasted Return AD APE PE AAPE
2012 2006 223,141 1,003,158 0.049 0.109 391,800 168,659 0.43 0.43 0.65
2013 2007 180,507 2,599,186 0.050 0.105 446,150 265,643 0.60 0.60 0.97
2014 2008 39,860 596,332 0.085 0.047 283,740 243,880 0.86 0.86 1.41
2015 2009 132,478 1,364,338 0.065 0.069 400,663 268,185 0.67 0.67 1.11
2016 2010 283,973 830,886 0.070 0.059 316,280 32,307 0.10 0.10 0.11
2017 2011 495,528 1,029,853 0.071 0.056 350,284 145,244 0.41 -0.41 0.29
2018 2012 84,332 695,018 0.071 0.053 286,751 202,419 0.71 0.71 1.18
2019 2013 31,764 898,110 0.064 0.061 320,686 288,922 0.90 0.90 1.46
2020 2014 29,189 640,158 0.053 0.076 246,550 217,361 0.88 0.88 1.44
2021 2015 NA 1,564,638 0.039 0.108 364,415 NA NA NA NA

average

Return Yr Brood Yr Observed Return Forecasted Return AD APE PE AAPE
2012 2006 223,140.63 299,589 76,449 0.26 0.26 0.33
2013 2007 180,507.05 312,209 131,702 0.42 0.42 0.63
2014 2008 39,860.18 343,077 303,216 0.88 0.88 1.44
2015 2009 132,478.30 338,822 206,344 0.61 0.61 1.00
2016 2010 283,973.01 292,704 8,731 0.03 0.03 0.03
2017 2011 495,528.20 171,992 323,536 1.88 -1.88 0.58
2018 2012 84,332.12 226,469 142,137 0.63 0.63 1.04
2019 2013 31,764.35 207,234 175,470 0.85 0.85 1.39
2020 2014 29,188.67 205,615 176,427 0.86 0.86 1.41
2021 2015 NA 184,957 NA NA NA NA

Performance summary

This looks similar to the age.22 situation where the sibling relationship looks better than the spawner relationship so we do the same basket approach of everything but spawner models we get 161,000.

model range MAD MAPE MPE MAAPE
sibling 5 years 112,178 48.96% 47.95% 0.80
sibling 3 years 147,875 74.69% 74.69% 1.24
ln.sibling 5 years 60,228 30.61% 16.91% 0.41
ln.sibling 3 years 74,826 39.32% 39.32% 0.59
lnY.sibling 5 years 105,344 67.09% 8.90% 0.78
lnY.sibling 3 years 75,953 63.32% 63.32% 1.04
lnS.lnR 5 years 161,931 62.75% 33.60% 0.88
lnS.lnR 3 years 198,197 80.30% 80.30% 1.32
ricker 5 years 177,251 60.11% 43.52% 0.89
ricker 3 years 236,234 82.95% 82.95% 1.36
average 5 years 165,260 84.87% 9.62% 0.89
average 3 years 164,678 77.75% 77.75% 1.28