Document History

Original Publish Date: 24 October, 2020

Updated on: 04 December, 2020

Overview of Congress Performance Over the Years

Year Seats_Contested SeatsWon Turnout Vote_Share_Cont Overall_Vote_Share Deposit_Lost_Seats StrikeRate Mobilization
1977 492 154 57.94561 38.72435 35.20395 18 31.300813 22.65188
1980 498 357 55.13952 46.39492 43.84188 7 71.686747 25.44061
1984 491 404 61.60377 52.25236 50.20726 2 82.281059 31.98708
1989 510 197 60.35941 40.45935 39.22865 5 38.627451 24.78606
1991 492 235 55.45285 38.96970 37.01369 60 47.764228 21.83494
1996 532 141 57.13177 29.38602 28.95067 127 26.503759 17.35235
1998 479 141 61.19086 29.80902 26.39283 153 29.436326 18.29063
1999 453 114 59.39269 34.24720 28.72959 88 25.165563 20.28399
2004 420 146 58.98612 34.53198 26.85820 84 34.761905 20.47146
2009 441 207 58.11968 35.10653 28.67033 71 46.938775 21.02995
2014 468 44 68.43970 23.10810 19.99000 179 9.401709 15.62798
2019 421 52 69.44033 25.16727 19.65755 148 12.351544 17.42252

Turnout Vs Congress VoteShare in Contested Seats(1977-2019)

Turnout Vs Overall Congress VoteShare(1977-2019)

Congress Voteshare In Contested Seats Vs Turnout in Different Years

Total Electors and Voters in favour of INC Over Years

Box Plots of Congress Voteshare

Mobilization in Different Phases

Phases Mobilization
Indira Gandhi Phase(1977-1980) 24.05753
Rajiv Gandhi Phase(1989-1991) 23.33701
Congress Without Gandhi(1996-1999) 18.56647
Sonia Gandhi Phase(2004-2009) 20.75752
Rahul Gandhi Phase(2014-2019) 16.47782

Congress Performance Among Hindus

Congress Voteshare Vs Proportion of Hindus

Wealth Categories Vs VoteShare In INC Contested Seats

Voteshare across different quartiles 1,2,3,4 1-lowest,4-highest

Year 1 2 3 4
2009 25.11732 33.69205 39.73290 42.62333
2014 19.40667 25.19195 23.17091 24.03951
2019 18.36688 23.87000 24.51211 33.74950

Wealth Categories Vs VoteShare In INC Contested Seats GRAPH

Voteshare across different quartiles 1,2,3,4 1-lowest,4-highest

Wealth Categories Vs Over all VoteShare

Voteshare across different quartiles 1,2,3,4 1-lowest,4-highest

Year Quartile Overall Turnout Overall Vote Share
2009 1 55.14309 20.68485
2009 2 57.83346 28.77350
2009 3 63.07978 31.49200
2009 4 61.58713 32.90772
2014 1 64.18190 14.44876
2014 2 67.20559 22.78390
2014 3 70.42919 20.61529
2014 4 67.26801 21.40745
2019 1 66.81838 12.55971
2019 2 69.49338 20.88625
2019 3 70.81489 19.79126
2019 4 66.97385 24.81581

CONGRESS VOTE SHARE CHANGE VS LITERACY CHANGE IN 30 YEARS(1977-2004)

CONGRESS VOTE SHARE CHANGE VS EMPLOYEMENT CHANGE IN 30 YEARS(1977-2004)

CONGRESS VOTE SHARE CHANGE VS AGRICULTURAL LABOURS CHANGE IN 30 YEARS(1977-2004)

REGRESSION PREDELIMITATION AND POST DELIMITATIOn

Dependent variable:
Vote_Share_Percentage
OLS panel
linear
predelim(96-04) postdelim(09-19) predelim State Fixed Effects(96-04) postdelim State Fixed Effects(09-19) predelim Year Fixed Effects(96-04) postdelim Year Fixed Effects(09-19)
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
HINDUPERCENTAGE 0.020 -0.064*** -0.159*** -0.122*** 0.023 -0.051***
(0.028) (0.020) (0.035) (0.026) (0.028) (0.019)
Turnout_Percentage 0.127*** -0.305*** 0.117*** -0.329*** 0.129*** -0.107***
(0.038) (0.037) (0.041) (0.044) (0.039) (0.040)
LIT_PERCENTAGE 0.291*** 0.332*** -0.032 0.003 0.276*** 0.281***
(0.036) (0.051) (0.036) (0.062) (0.035) (0.049)
SC_Percentage -0.384*** -0.229*** -0.033 0.110 -0.389*** -0.242***
(0.057) (0.064) (0.055) (0.077) (0.057) (0.061)
ST_Percentage 0.247*** 0.196*** 0.059** 0.079** 0.243*** 0.177***
(0.028) (0.028) (0.024) (0.031) (0.028) (0.026)
RURALPERCENTAGE -0.017 0.133*** -0.004 -0.039 -0.027 0.087***
(0.026) (0.026) (0.021) (0.028) (0.026) (0.025)
Female_Percentage 1.663*** 0.261*** 0.765** 0.304*** 1.747*** 0.245***
(0.309) (0.046) (0.312) (0.046) (0.306) (0.044)
WEALTHSCORE 0.354*** -0.187** 0.326***
(0.050) (0.080) (0.048)
Constant -68.179*** 0.586
(13.685) (4.077)
Observations 1,634 1,328 1,634 1,328 1,634 1,328
R2 0.219 0.218 0.034 0.079 0.224 0.209
Adjusted R2 0.216 0.213 0.022 0.049 0.219 0.203
Residual Std. Error 14.840 (df = 1626) 14.517 (df = 1319)
F Statistic 65.143*** (df = 7; 1626) 45.997*** (df = 8; 1319) 8.194*** (df = 7; 1612) 13.836*** (df = 8; 1285) 66.768*** (df = 7; 1623) 43.547*** (df = 8; 1317)
Note: p<0.1; p<0.05; p<0.01

CORRELATION MATRIX

COLUMNS HINDU Turnout LITERACY SC ST RURAL WEALTHSCORE
HINDU 1.0000000 -0.1987779 -0.1642371 0.0930522 -0.0305187 0.2191169 0.0834359
Turnout -0.1987779 1.0000000 0.2387167 0.0863173 0.0111499 0.0980536 -0.1646148
LITERACY -0.1642371 0.2387167 1.0000000 -0.1180189 -0.2123673 -0.4681072 0.2953694
SC 0.0930522 0.0863173 -0.1180189 1.0000000 -0.4526890 0.1827096 0.0036571
ST -0.0305187 0.0111499 -0.2123673 -0.4526890 1.0000000 0.2104910 -0.1456593
RURAL 0.2191169 0.0980536 -0.4681072 0.1827096 0.2104910 1.0000000 -0.0948990
WEALTHSCORE 0.0834359 -0.1646148 0.2953694 0.0036571 -0.1456593 -0.0948990 1.0000000

PHASE WISE REGRESSIONS

Dependent variable:
Vote_Share_Percentage
OLS panel
linear
Phase-1 (96-99) Phase-2 (04-09) Phase-3 (14-19) Phase-1 (96-99) StFE Phase-2 (04-09) StFE Phase-3 (14-19) StFE Phase-1 (96-99) YrFE Phase-2 (04-09) YrFE Phase-3 (14-19) YrFE
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)
HINDUPERCENTAGE 0.024*** 0.027*** 0.019*** 0.009 0.023** 0.015*** 0.023*** 0.026*** 0.019***
(0.008) (0.007) (0.004) (0.011) (0.009) (0.004) (0.008) (0.007) (0.004)
Turnout_Percentage -0.485*** -0.538*** -0.289*** -0.462*** -0.499*** -0.343*** -0.489*** -0.538*** -0.289***
(0.011) (0.013) (0.008) (0.014) (0.017) (0.010) (0.011) (0.013) (0.008)
LIT_PERCENTAGE 0.035*** 0.067*** 0.025*** -0.009 -0.018 -0.002 0.035*** 0.063*** 0.025***
(0.011) (0.013) (0.009) (0.013) (0.016) (0.010) (0.010) (0.013) (0.009)
SC_Percentage -0.013 0.024 0.045*** 0.009 -0.0003 0.057*** -0.012 0.020 0.045***
(0.016) (0.019) (0.012) (0.017) (0.021) (0.013) (0.016) (0.019) (0.012)
ST_Percentage 0.059*** 0.051*** 0.014*** 0.026*** -0.001 0.004 0.058*** 0.051*** 0.014***
(0.008) (0.008) (0.005) (0.007) (0.009) (0.005) (0.008) (0.008) (0.005)
RURALPERCENTAGE -0.006 -0.017** -0.005 -0.007 -0.019** -0.002 -0.007 -0.020** -0.005
(0.008) (0.008) (0.005) (0.007) (0.008) (0.004) (0.007) (0.008) (0.005)
Female_Percentage -0.163* -0.043** -0.040*** 0.090 -0.056*** -0.016* -0.132 -0.046** -0.040***
(0.089) (0.019) (0.008) (0.094) (0.019) (0.008) (0.088) (0.018) (0.009)
Mobilization 1.673*** 1.654*** 1.396*** 1.589*** 1.611*** 1.366*** 1.665*** 1.656*** 1.397***
(0.013) (0.014) (0.007) (0.013) (0.015) (0.008) (0.013) (0.014) (0.007)
Constant 32.856*** 28.533*** 19.468***
(3.955) (1.227) (0.757)
Observations 863 787 888 863 787 888 863 787 888
R2 0.965 0.956 0.981 0.951 0.940 0.972 0.965 0.957 0.981
Adjusted R2 0.965 0.956 0.981 0.949 0.936 0.971 0.964 0.956 0.981
Residual Std. Error 2.965 (df = 854) 3.260 (df = 778) 2.203 (df = 879)
F Statistic 2,956.154*** (df = 8; 854) 2,136.501*** (df = 8; 778) 5,765.678*** (df = 8; 879) 2,016.671*** (df = 8; 840) 1,445.661*** (df = 8; 744) 3,712.249*** (df = 8; 845) 2,927.547*** (df = 8; 853) 2,153.888*** (df = 8; 777) 5,737.422*** (df = 8; 878)
Note: p<0.1; p<0.05; p<0.01

DIFFERENT PHASES OF CONGRESS

NB:It can’t be divided into five phases

1977-1980[Indira Phase]

1989-1991[Rajiv Gandhi]

1996-1999[Without Gandhi]

2004-2009(This can’t be clubbed into one phase because of delimitation)[Sonia Gandhi]

2014-2019[Rahul Gandhi] —————————————————————–

Dependent variable:
Final_Vote_Percentage
OLS panel OLS panel OLS panel OLS panel
linear linear linear linear
Base-1 (1977,1981) Base-1 (1977,1981) Fixed Effect of State Base-2 (1989,1991) Base-2 (1989,1991) Fixed Effect of State Base-3 (1999,2004) Base-3 (1999,2004) Fixed Effect of State Base-4 (2014,2019) Base-4 (2014,2019) Fixed Effect of State
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)
LIT_Percentage 0.412*** -0.004 0.356*** -0.034 0.070 -0.152*** 0.476*** -0.060
(0.052) (0.050) (0.047) (0.055) (0.060) (0.047) (0.075) (0.062)
Agricultural_Percent 0.175*** 0.174*** -0.105** -0.079* 0.042 -0.042
(0.040) (0.036) (0.043) (0.041) (0.144) (0.131)
Employement_Percentage 1.309*** 0.407*** 1.054*** 0.048 0.792*** 0.155
(0.098) (0.110) (0.100) (0.120) (0.114) (0.095)
RURALPERCENTAGE 0.131*** 0.012
(0.037) (0.026)
SC_Percentage -0.0004 0.069 0.011 0.019 -0.733*** -0.083 -0.419*** 0.038
(0.073) (0.063) (0.078) (0.071) (0.090) (0.076) (0.101) (0.082)
ST_Percentage 4.257 0.152 14.948*** 8.617** -0.127** -0.068 0.182*** 0.060*
(3.592) (2.872) (3.671) (3.396) (0.057) (0.042) (0.045) (0.034)
Final_Turnout -0.038 -0.120** 0.313*** 0.146*** 0.010 0.036 -0.363*** 0.013
(0.062) (0.053) (0.048) (0.056) (0.069) (0.087) (0.076) (0.073)
Constant -14.909*** -21.833*** 11.684** 19.184***
(5.283) (4.877) (5.070) (6.257)
Observations 436 436 436 436 330 330 412 412
R2 0.450 0.144 0.386 0.035 0.337 0.041 0.223 0.031
Adjusted R2 0.442 0.103 0.377 -0.009 0.324 -0.021 0.213 -0.070
Residual Std. Error 9.346 (df = 429) 9.783 (df = 429) 12.176 (df = 323) 13.012 (df = 406)
F Statistic 58.413*** (df = 6; 429) 11.648*** (df = 6; 415) 44.866*** (df = 6; 429) 2.506** (df = 6; 416) 27.327*** (df = 6; 323) 2.200** (df = 6; 309) 23.254*** (df = 5; 406) 2.404** (df = 5; 372)
Note: p<0.1; p<0.05; p<0.01

Vote Share of Congress when State Elections are Before Lok Sabha Elections

### Regressor Value 0.3786

Vote Share of Congress when State Elections are Before Lok Sabha Elections(Different Phases)

Vote Share of Congress When State Elections are in Same Years As Lok Sabha Elections

Vote Share of Congress when State Elections are in in Same Years As Lok Sabha Elections(Different Phases)

Vote Share of Congress Impact in State Elections After Lok Sabha Elections

Regressor value 0.5402

Vote Share of Congress Impact in State Elections After Lok Sabha Elections(Different Phases)