Replicating the Results of Martin Elff’s Analysis of American National Election Study of 1948 (without using the memisc package)
Xiomara Vilchez
Sunday, March 22, 2015
Introduction
For this analysis we will be replicating the results that Martin Elff published about his analysis of the American National Election Study of 1948. The Anes contains data from the USA wide surveys that were conducted between October and November of 1948 during the election between Truman and Dewey. This data set collected includes a total of 662 cases with 65 variables.
Analysis
In order to analyze and replicate what Elff did in his study we had to download the ANES dataset. Since variables were not easily understood we recoded them, we use the variables V480018 which we recoded to “vote” in order to signify respondents that voted and did not vote. We used the variable V480029 and renamed it “occupation.hh” which signifies the respondents education. The variable V480045 turned into “gender” to signify respondents sex. The variable V480047 changed to age to signify respondents age and so on as shown below.
vote.48<- spss.get("c:/Users/Xiomara/AppData/Local/Temp/Rtmp2FiVh7/NES1948.POR", use.value.labels=TRUE)
vote.48<-rename(vote.48, V480018="vote", V480029="Occupation.hh", V480045="gender", V480046="race", V480047="age", V480048="education", V480049="total.income", V480050="religious.pref")Descriptive Analysis
The following analysis is a visual representation of who the respondents voted for and if they voted. As can be seen by both the following chart and table it is clear that Truman won the election with with a frequency of 212 vs 178 for Dewey.
PercTable(vote.48$vote)## freq perc
##
## VOTED - FOR TRUMAN 212 .321
## VOTED - FOR DEWEY 178 .270
## VOTED - FOR WALLACE 1 .002
## VOTED - FOR OTHER 11 .017
## VOTED - NA FOR WHOM 20 .030
## DID NOT VOTE 238 .361plot(vote.48$vote)
The following table shows that the majority of the respondents were of skilled and semi skilled occupation. This followed by farm operators and managers
PercTable(vote.48$Occupation.hh)## freq perc
##
## PROFESSIONAL, SEMI-PROFESSIONAL 44 .069
## SELF-EMPLOYED, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY 73 .115
## OTHER WHITE-COLLAR (CLERICAL, SALES, ET 79 .125
## SKILLED AND SEMI-SKILLED 164 .259
## PROTECTIVE SERVICE 6 .009
## UNSKILLED, INCLUDING FARM AND SERVICE W 85 .134
## FARM OPERATORS AND MANAGERS 105 .166
## STUDENT 7 .011
## UNEMPLOYED 5 .008
## RETIRED, TOO OLD OR UNABLE TO WORK 38 .060
## HOUSEWIFE 28 .044** The majority of the respondents were female as shown in the table below**
PercTable(vote.48$gender)## freq perc
##
## MALE 302 .458
## FEMALE 357 .542This table shows that the vast majority of the respondents were white with a frequency of 585 versus only 60 for Blacks and 0 for other.
PercTable(vote.48$race)## freq perc
##
## WHITE 585 .907
## NEGRO 60 .093
## OTHER 0 .000This table shows that the majority of the respondents were between the ages 35-44 followed by 25.-34. The age bracket with the least respondents were between the ages of 18-24.
PercTable(vote.48$age)## freq perc
##
## 18-24 57 .087
## 25-34 142 .217
## 35-44 174 .266
## 45-54 125 .191
## 55-64 86 .131
## 65 AND OVER 70 .107The following shows that majority of the respondents only had a grade school education, followed by those with high school education not far behind.
PercTable(vote.48$education)## freq perc
##
## GRADE SCHOOL 292 .444
## HIGH SCHOOL 266 .404
## COLLEGE 100 .152As shown in the table below the majority of the respondents income bracket fell between $2000-2999.
PercTable(vote.48$total.income)## freq perc
##
## UNDER $500 25 .038
## $500-$999 43 .066
## $1000-1999 110 .168
## $2000-2999 185 .282
## $3000-3999 142 .217
## $4000-4999 66 .101
## $5000 AND OVER 84 .128Finally the following table shows that the vast majority of the respondents were of Protestant religous preference.
PercTable(vote.48$religious.pref)## freq perc
##
## PROTESTANT 460 .700
## CATHOLIC 140 .213
## JEWISH 25 .038
## OTHER 14 .021
## NONE 18 .027Cross Tabulations
crsst<-CrossTable(vote.48$vote, vote.48$education)##
##
## Cell Contents
## |-------------------------|
## | N |
## | Chi-square contribution |
## | N / Row Total |
## | N / Col Total |
## | N / Table Total |
## |-------------------------|
##
##
## Total Observations in Table: 656
##
##
## | vote.48$education
## vote.48$vote | GRADE SCHOOL | HIGH SCHOOL | COLLEGE | Row Total |
## --------------------|--------------|--------------|--------------|--------------|
## VOTED - FOR TRUMAN | 102 | 90 | 17 | 209 |
## | 0.931 | 0.368 | 6.931 | |
## | 0.488 | 0.431 | 0.081 | 0.319 |
## | 0.351 | 0.340 | 0.170 | |
## | 0.155 | 0.137 | 0.026 | |
## --------------------|--------------|--------------|--------------|--------------|
## VOTED - FOR DEWEY | 48 | 76 | 54 | 178 |
## | 12.140 | 0.233 | 26.600 | |
## | 0.270 | 0.427 | 0.303 | 0.271 |
## | 0.165 | 0.287 | 0.540 | |
## | 0.073 | 0.116 | 0.082 | |
## --------------------|--------------|--------------|--------------|--------------|
## VOTED - FOR WALLACE | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
## | 0.444 | 0.879 | 0.152 | |
## | 0.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.002 |
## | 0.000 | 0.004 | 0.000 | |
## | 0.000 | 0.002 | 0.000 | |
## --------------------|--------------|--------------|--------------|--------------|
## VOTED - FOR OTHER | 5 | 3 | 3 | 11 |
## | 0.003 | 0.469 | 1.044 | |
## | 0.455 | 0.273 | 0.273 | 0.017 |
## | 0.017 | 0.011 | 0.030 | |
## | 0.008 | 0.005 | 0.005 | |
## --------------------|--------------|--------------|--------------|--------------|
## VOTED - NA FOR WHOM | 7 | 8 | 5 | 20 |
## | 0.395 | 0.001 | 1.249 | |
## | 0.350 | 0.400 | 0.250 | 0.030 |
## | 0.024 | 0.030 | 0.050 | |
## | 0.011 | 0.012 | 0.008 | |
## --------------------|--------------|--------------|--------------|--------------|
## DID NOT VOTE | 129 | 87 | 21 | 237 |
## | 5.418 | 0.798 | 6.335 | |
## | 0.544 | 0.367 | 0.089 | 0.361 |
## | 0.443 | 0.328 | 0.210 | |
## | 0.197 | 0.133 | 0.032 | |
## --------------------|--------------|--------------|--------------|--------------|
## Column Total | 291 | 265 | 100 | 656 |
## | 0.444 | 0.404 | 0.152 | |
## --------------------|--------------|--------------|--------------|--------------|
##
## crsst<-CrossTable(vote.48$vote, vote.48$race)##
##
## Cell Contents
## |-------------------------|
## | N |
## | Chi-square contribution |
## | N / Row Total |
## | N / Col Total |
## | N / Table Total |
## |-------------------------|
##
##
## Total Observations in Table: 643
##
##
## | vote.48$race
## vote.48$vote | WHITE | NEGRO | Row Total |
## --------------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
## VOTED - FOR TRUMAN | 193 | 11 | 204 |
## | 0.349 | 3.392 | |
## | 0.946 | 0.054 | 0.317 |
## | 0.331 | 0.183 | |
## | 0.300 | 0.017 | |
## --------------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
## VOTED - FOR DEWEY | 171 | 6 | 177 |
## | 0.689 | 6.696 | |
## | 0.966 | 0.034 | 0.275 |
## | 0.293 | 0.100 | |
## | 0.266 | 0.009 | |
## --------------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
## VOTED - FOR WALLACE | 1 | 0 | 1 |
## | 0.010 | 0.093 | |
## | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.002 |
## | 0.002 | 0.000 | |
## | 0.002 | 0.000 | |
## --------------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
## VOTED - FOR OTHER | 11 | 0 | 11 |
## | 0.106 | 1.026 | |
## | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.017 |
## | 0.019 | 0.000 | |
## | 0.017 | 0.000 | |
## --------------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
## VOTED - NA FOR WHOM | 14 | 5 | 19 |
## | 0.605 | 5.874 | |
## | 0.737 | 0.263 | 0.030 |
## | 0.024 | 0.083 | |
## | 0.022 | 0.008 | |
## --------------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
## DID NOT VOTE | 193 | 38 | 231 |
## | 1.291 | 12.546 | |
## | 0.835 | 0.165 | 0.359 |
## | 0.331 | 0.633 | |
## | 0.300 | 0.059 | |
## --------------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
## Column Total | 583 | 60 | 643 |
## | 0.907 | 0.093 | |
## --------------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
##
## crsst<-CrossTable(vote.48$vote, vote.48$age)##
##
## Cell Contents
## |-------------------------|
## | N |
## | Chi-square contribution |
## | N / Row Total |
## | N / Col Total |
## | N / Table Total |
## |-------------------------|
##
##
## Total Observations in Table: 652
##
##
## | vote.48$age
## vote.48$vote | 18-24 | 25-34 | 35-44 | 45-54 | 55-64 | 65 AND OVER | Row Total |
## --------------------|-------------|-------------|-------------|-------------|-------------|-------------|-------------|
## VOTED - FOR TRUMAN | 14 | 49 | 66 | 41 | 23 | 19 | 212 |
## | 0.973 | 0.173 | 1.570 | 0.003 | 0.881 | 0.526 | |
## | 0.066 | 0.231 | 0.311 | 0.193 | 0.108 | 0.090 | 0.325 |
## | 0.250 | 0.345 | 0.379 | 0.328 | 0.267 | 0.275 | |
## | 0.021 | 0.075 | 0.101 | 0.063 | 0.035 | 0.029 | |
## --------------------|-------------|-------------|-------------|-------------|-------------|-------------|-------------|
## VOTED - FOR DEWEY | 6 | 31 | 42 | 47 | 30 | 19 | 175 |
## | 5.426 | 1.328 | 0.473 | 5.391 | 2.073 | 0.012 | |
## | 0.034 | 0.177 | 0.240 | 0.269 | 0.171 | 0.109 | 0.268 |
## | 0.107 | 0.218 | 0.241 | 0.376 | 0.349 | 0.275 | |
## | 0.009 | 0.048 | 0.064 | 0.072 | 0.046 | 0.029 | |
## --------------------|-------------|-------------|-------------|-------------|-------------|-------------|-------------|
## VOTED - FOR WALLACE | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
## | 0.086 | 2.809 | 0.267 | 0.192 | 0.132 | 0.106 | |
## | 0.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.002 |
## | 0.000 | 0.007 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | |
## | 0.000 | 0.002 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | |
## --------------------|-------------|-------------|-------------|-------------|-------------|-------------|-------------|
## VOTED - FOR OTHER | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 11 |
## | 0.003 | 0.065 | 0.298 | 1.696 | 1.451 | 0.600 | |
## | 0.091 | 0.182 | 0.182 | 0.364 | 0.000 | 0.182 | 0.017 |
## | 0.018 | 0.014 | 0.011 | 0.032 | 0.000 | 0.029 | |
## | 0.002 | 0.003 | 0.003 | 0.006 | 0.000 | 0.003 | |
## --------------------|-------------|-------------|-------------|-------------|-------------|-------------|-------------|
## VOTED - NA FOR WHOM | 2 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 20 |
## | 0.046 | 0.029 | 0.082 | 0.878 | 2.115 | 0.589 | |
## | 0.100 | 0.200 | 0.300 | 0.100 | 0.250 | 0.050 | 0.031 |
## | 0.036 | 0.028 | 0.034 | 0.016 | 0.058 | 0.014 | |
## | 0.003 | 0.006 | 0.009 | 0.003 | 0.008 | 0.002 | |
## --------------------|-------------|-------------|-------------|-------------|-------------|-------------|-------------|
## DID NOT VOTE | 33 | 55 | 58 | 31 | 28 | 28 | 233 |
## | 8.429 | 0.357 | 0.281 | 4.183 | 0.243 | 0.453 | |
## | 0.142 | 0.236 | 0.249 | 0.133 | 0.120 | 0.120 | 0.357 |
## | 0.589 | 0.387 | 0.333 | 0.248 | 0.326 | 0.406 | |
## | 0.051 | 0.084 | 0.089 | 0.048 | 0.043 | 0.043 | |
## --------------------|-------------|-------------|-------------|-------------|-------------|-------------|-------------|
## Column Total | 56 | 142 | 174 | 125 | 86 | 69 | 652 |
## | 0.086 | 0.218 | 0.267 | 0.192 | 0.132 | 0.106 | |
## --------------------|-------------|-------------|-------------|-------------|-------------|-------------|-------------|
##
## crsst<-CrossTable(vote.48$vote, vote.48$gender)##
##
## Cell Contents
## |-------------------------|
## | N |
## | Chi-square contribution |
## | N / Row Total |
## | N / Col Total |
## | N / Table Total |
## |-------------------------|
##
##
## Total Observations in Table: 658
##
##
## | vote.48$gender
## vote.48$vote | MALE | FEMALE | Row Total |
## --------------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
## VOTED - FOR TRUMAN | 108 | 103 | 211 |
## | 1.365 | 1.151 | |
## | 0.512 | 0.488 | 0.321 |
## | 0.359 | 0.289 | |
## | 0.164 | 0.157 | |
## --------------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
## VOTED - FOR DEWEY | 86 | 92 | 178 |
## | 0.257 | 0.217 | |
## | 0.483 | 0.517 | 0.271 |
## | 0.286 | 0.258 | |
## | 0.131 | 0.140 | |
## --------------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
## VOTED - FOR WALLACE | 0 | 1 | 1 |
## | 0.457 | 0.386 | |
## | 0.000 | 1.000 | 0.002 |
## | 0.000 | 0.003 | |
## | 0.000 | 0.002 | |
## --------------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
## VOTED - FOR OTHER | 4 | 7 | 11 |
## | 0.212 | 0.178 | |
## | 0.364 | 0.636 | 0.017 |
## | 0.013 | 0.020 | |
## | 0.006 | 0.011 | |
## --------------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
## VOTED - NA FOR WHOM | 11 | 9 | 20 |
## | 0.375 | 0.316 | |
## | 0.550 | 0.450 | 0.030 |
## | 0.037 | 0.025 | |
## | 0.017 | 0.014 | |
## --------------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
## DID NOT VOTE | 92 | 145 | 237 |
## | 2.485 | 2.095 | |
## | 0.388 | 0.612 | 0.360 |
## | 0.306 | 0.406 | |
## | 0.140 | 0.220 | |
## --------------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
## Column Total | 301 | 357 | 658 |
## | 0.457 | 0.543 | |
## --------------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
##
## crsst<-CrossTable(vote.48$vote, vote.48$total.income)##
##
## Cell Contents
## |-------------------------|
## | N |
## | Chi-square contribution |
## | N / Row Total |
## | N / Col Total |
## | N / Table Total |
## |-------------------------|
##
##
## Total Observations in Table: 653
##
##
## | vote.48$total.income
## vote.48$vote | UNDER $500 | $500-$999 | $1000-1999 | $2000-2999 | $3000-3999 | $4000-4999 | $5000 AND OVER | Row Total |
## --------------------|----------------|----------------|----------------|----------------|----------------|----------------|----------------|----------------|
## VOTED - FOR TRUMAN | 4 | 8 | 38 | 69 | 48 | 22 | 21 | 210 |
## | 2.030 | 2.245 | 0.195 | 1.519 | 0.156 | 0.028 | 1.339 | |
## | 0.019 | 0.038 | 0.181 | 0.329 | 0.229 | 0.105 | 0.100 | 0.322 |
## | 0.160 | 0.190 | 0.345 | 0.373 | 0.340 | 0.333 | 0.250 | |
## | 0.006 | 0.012 | 0.058 | 0.106 | 0.074 | 0.034 | 0.032 | |
## --------------------|----------------|----------------|----------------|----------------|----------------|----------------|----------------|----------------|
## VOTED - FOR DEWEY | 4 | 5 | 19 | 31 | 49 | 24 | 45 | 177 |
## | 1.138 | 3.580 | 3.924 | 7.310 | 3.041 | 2.087 | 21.706 | |
## | 0.023 | 0.028 | 0.107 | 0.175 | 0.277 | 0.136 | 0.254 | 0.271 |
## | 0.160 | 0.119 | 0.173 | 0.168 | 0.348 | 0.364 | 0.536 | |
## | 0.006 | 0.008 | 0.029 | 0.047 | 0.075 | 0.037 | 0.069 | |
## --------------------|----------------|----------------|----------------|----------------|----------------|----------------|----------------|----------------|
## VOTED - FOR WALLACE | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
## | 0.038 | 0.064 | 0.168 | 1.813 | 0.216 | 0.101 | 0.129 | |
## | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.002 |
## | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.005 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | |
## | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.002 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | |
## --------------------|----------------|----------------|----------------|----------------|----------------|----------------|----------------|----------------|
## VOTED - FOR OTHER | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
## | 0.383 | 0.643 | 0.059 | 0.245 | 1.569 | 0.968 | 1.286 | |
## | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.200 | 0.200 | 0.400 | 0.200 | 0.000 | 0.015 |
## | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.018 | 0.011 | 0.028 | 0.030 | 0.000 | |
## | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.003 | 0.003 | 0.006 | 0.003 | 0.000 | |
## --------------------|----------------|----------------|----------------|----------------|----------------|----------------|----------------|----------------|
## VOTED - NA FOR WHOM | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 20 |
## | 0.766 | 0.064 | 0.556 | 1.962 | 0.403 | 0.000 | 0.071 | |
## | 0.000 | 0.050 | 0.100 | 0.450 | 0.150 | 0.100 | 0.150 | 0.031 |
## | 0.000 | 0.024 | 0.018 | 0.049 | 0.021 | 0.030 | 0.036 | |
## | 0.000 | 0.002 | 0.003 | 0.014 | 0.005 | 0.003 | 0.005 | |
## --------------------|----------------|----------------|----------------|----------------|----------------|----------------|----------------|----------------|
## DID NOT VOTE | 17 | 28 | 49 | 73 | 37 | 16 | 15 | 235 |
## | 7.119 | 10.984 | 2.238 | 0.620 | 3.722 | 2.530 | 7.673 | |
## | 0.072 | 0.119 | 0.209 | 0.311 | 0.157 | 0.068 | 0.064 | 0.360 |
## | 0.680 | 0.667 | 0.445 | 0.395 | 0.262 | 0.242 | 0.179 | |
## | 0.026 | 0.043 | 0.075 | 0.112 | 0.057 | 0.025 | 0.023 | |
## --------------------|----------------|----------------|----------------|----------------|----------------|----------------|----------------|----------------|
## Column Total | 25 | 42 | 110 | 185 | 141 | 66 | 84 | 653 |
## | 0.038 | 0.064 | 0.168 | 0.283 | 0.216 | 0.101 | 0.129 | |
## --------------------|----------------|----------------|----------------|----------------|----------------|----------------|----------------|----------------|
##
## crsst<-CrossTable(vote.48$vote, vote.48$religious.pref)##
##
## Cell Contents
## |-------------------------|
## | N |
## | Chi-square contribution |
## | N / Row Total |
## | N / Col Total |
## | N / Table Total |
## |-------------------------|
##
##
## Total Observations in Table: 655
##
##
## | vote.48$religious.pref
## vote.48$vote | PROTESTANT | CATHOLIC | JEWISH | OTHER | NONE | Row Total |
## --------------------|------------|------------|------------|------------|------------|------------|
## VOTED - FOR TRUMAN | 114 | 68 | 20 | 5 | 5 | 212 |
## | 8.041 | 11.769 | 17.526 | 0.048 | 0.117 | |
## | 0.538 | 0.321 | 0.094 | 0.024 | 0.024 | 0.324 |
## | 0.248 | 0.489 | 0.800 | 0.357 | 0.278 | |
## | 0.174 | 0.104 | 0.031 | 0.008 | 0.008 | |
## --------------------|------------|------------|------------|------------|------------|------------|
## VOTED - FOR DEWEY | 130 | 35 | 0 | 6 | 7 | 178 |
## | 0.222 | 0.204 | 6.794 | 1.267 | 0.909 | |
## | 0.730 | 0.197 | 0.000 | 0.034 | 0.039 | 0.272 |
## | 0.283 | 0.252 | 0.000 | 0.429 | 0.389 | |
## | 0.198 | 0.053 | 0.000 | 0.009 | 0.011 | |
## --------------------|------------|------------|------------|------------|------------|------------|
## VOTED - FOR WALLACE | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
## | 0.701 | 0.212 | 0.038 | 0.021 | 34.416 | |
## | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 0.002 |
## | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.056 | |
## | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.002 | |
## --------------------|------------|------------|------------|------------|------------|------------|
## VOTED - FOR OTHER | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 |
## | 1.406 | 2.334 | 0.420 | 0.235 | 0.302 | |
## | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.017 |
## | 0.024 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | |
## | 0.017 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | |
## --------------------|------------|------------|------------|------------|------------|------------|
## VOTED - NA FOR WHOM | 11 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 19 |
## | 0.402 | 2.185 | 0.725 | 0.869 | 0.522 | |
## | 0.579 | 0.368 | 0.000 | 0.053 | 0.000 | 0.029 |
## | 0.024 | 0.050 | 0.000 | 0.071 | 0.000 | |
## | 0.017 | 0.011 | 0.000 | 0.002 | 0.000 | |
## --------------------|------------|------------|------------|------------|------------|------------|
## DID NOT VOTE | 193 | 29 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 234 |
## | 5.136 | 8.594 | 1.730 | 1.801 | 0.318 | |
## | 0.825 | 0.124 | 0.021 | 0.009 | 0.021 | 0.357 |
## | 0.420 | 0.209 | 0.200 | 0.143 | 0.278 | |
## | 0.295 | 0.044 | 0.008 | 0.003 | 0.008 | |
## --------------------|------------|------------|------------|------------|------------|------------|
## Column Total | 459 | 139 | 25 | 14 | 18 | 655 |
## | 0.701 | 0.212 | 0.038 | 0.021 | 0.027 | |
## --------------------|------------|------------|------------|------------|------------|------------|
##
##