Updated on 2020-11-30
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Median Age of Covid Cases by Event Date
Median Age of Cases From Last 7 Days By County
% of Cases Aged >= 65 Years Old vs Case Death Rate
ED-only and Hospitalization Demographics
Hospitalization and ED visit Trends
The two charts below show (1) that almost all Covid cases that are hospitalized also were identified as having visited the ED, and (2) the share of ED Covid visits that were NOT identified as having been hospitalized has been increasing.
Age Demographics Of FL Covid Deaths
Hospitalization Status of FL Covid Deaths
Covid: Place Of Death vs. US averages
Covid Death and Cases Percentages By Gender
Most recent 4 weeks yield erratic values for percentage of death because of the small number of deaths.
Case Trend In Select Counties
Distribution of Death by Age: From All Causes vs. Covid Deaths Alone
The 2019 and 2020 All Causes age distribution is from Public Health data. The 2020 All Cause data is only through September – so the 2020 All Cause percent distribution does not fully reflect the impact of Covid deaths this year. Covid deaths are up to date to the current date.
Gompertz & Network Graph fits to FL Covid Death data
Gompertz equations have been proposed as good functional fits to model deaths as an infection spreads within a system (like the state of Florida). If you are interested in the topic, I have a separate site that uses these to look at US Covid death data. With the second surge in FL deaths, FL is no longer following a simple Gompertz process. I have modeled it using two additive Gompertz curves.
These plots use FL data on Covid deaths by actual death date available on their Arcgis site. I adjust the last 14 days of reported deaths upward using an adjustment factor developed by Marc Bevand documented here. I also omit the last two days of adjusted deaths due to their incompleteness.
The “2 Gompertz” fit to daily deaths is shown below.
Simple Extrapolation of Declining Growth Rate of Cumulative Covid Deaths
Michael Levitt (@MLevitt_NP2013) is the first one to observe that the growth rate of Covid cumulative deaths declines linearly in many regions infected with Covid. As noted above, Florida no longer follows a simple linear decline. Extrapolating the red line indicates there will be approximately 1,052 additional Covid deaths that will be added to Florida’s totals.
Model forecasts for FL Covid Deaths
The CDC periodically summarizes approximately 20 model forecasts for FL Covid deaths. These forecasts are higher than the Gompertz/Network “forecasts” above. It may be that the Gompertz/Network equations are better viewed as “after the fact” mathematical descriptors than forecasts.
| model | forecast_date | target_week_end_date | point | quantile_0.025 | quantile_0.25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UT | 2020-11-23 | 2020-12-19 | 19218 | 18680 | 18986 |
| Walmart | 2020-11-23 | 2020-12-19 | 19218 | 18680 | 19030 |
| UGA-CEID | 2020-11-23 | 2020-12-19 | 19739 | 18786 | 19404 |
| Covid19Sim | 2020-11-23 | 2020-12-19 | 19753 | 19592 | 19724 |
| MIT-ORC | 2020-11-23 | 2020-12-19 | 19761 | 19500 | 19671 |
| UM | 2020-11-23 | 2020-12-19 | 19852 | 19772 | 19826 |
| DDS | 2020-11-23 | 2020-12-19 | 19856 | 18997 | 19436 |
| UCLA | 2020-11-23 | 2020-12-19 | 19860 | 19651 | 19779 |
| PSI | 2020-11-23 | 2020-12-19 | 19887 | 19685 | 19817 |
| NotreDame-Mobility | 2020-11-23 | 2020-12-19 | 19917 | 19820 | 19884 |
| UCSB | 2020-11-23 | 2020-12-19 | 19963 | 17930 | 19573 |
| Google-HSPH | 2020-11-23 | 2020-12-19 | 20139 | 17930 | 18736 |
| JCB | 2020-11-23 | 2020-12-19 | 20159 | 19308 | 19866 |
| ISU | 2020-11-23 | 2020-12-19 | 20199 | 19918 | 20089 |
| MSRA | 2020-11-23 | 2020-12-19 | 20320 | 20282 | 20299 |
| Ensemble | 2020-11-23 | 2020-12-19 | 20325 | 19610 | 19942 |
| Karlen | 2020-11-23 | 2020-12-19 | 20330 | 19759 | 20034 |
| LANL | 2020-11-23 | 2020-12-19 | 20332 | 19040 | 19922 |
| UA | 2020-11-23 | 2020-12-19 | 20429 | 20058 | 20337 |
| JHU-CSSE | 2020-11-23 | 2020-12-19 | 20439 | 20044 | 20263 |
| CovidComplete | 2020-11-23 | 2020-12-19 | 20484 | 19208 | 19812 |
| Oliver Wyman | 2020-11-23 | 2020-12-19 | 20488 | 19119 | 19963 |
| USC | 2020-11-23 | 2020-12-19 | 20551 | 19294 | 20254 |
| LSHTM | 2020-11-23 | 2020-12-19 | 20654 | 19222 | 20083 |
| BPagano | 2020-11-23 | 2020-12-19 | 20787 | 19667 | 20393 |
| GT-DeepCOVID | 2020-11-23 | 2020-12-19 | 20929 | 20627 | 20818 |
| JHU-APL | 2020-11-23 | 2020-12-19 | 20986 | 19628 | 20445 |
| UMass-MB | 2020-11-23 | 2020-12-19 | 21219 | 19808 | 20554 |
| Columbia | 2020-11-23 | 2020-12-19 | 21275 | 20337 | 20966 |
| JHU-IDD | 2020-11-23 | 2020-12-19 | 21495 | 19705 | 20565 |
| MOBS | 2020-11-23 | 2020-12-19 | 21504 | 18435 | 21353 |
| UCSD-NEU | 2020-11-23 | 2020-12-19 | 21531 | 21051 | 21366 |
Florida Covid Testing Volume
Florida Hospitalization/Case Ratio, Case Fatality Ratio and Death/Hospitalization By Month
Values for the latest month are effected by increases in testing volume which can increase the number of cases (the denominator), and by lags (as much as 21 days) between case identification and death (which can suppress the numerator).
| Age_group | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-4 years | NA | 4.2% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 2.1% |
| 05-14 years | 0.0% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.8% |
| 15-24 years | 4.3% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.7% |
| 25-34 years | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.3% |
| 35-44 years | 12.5% | 14.1% | 9.9% | 8.0% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 2.3% |
| 45-54 years | 14.3% | 18.6% | 13.0% | 12.2% | 6.5% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 3.4% |
| 55-64 years | 21.0% | 23.7% | 20.5% | 19.0% | 10.4% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 5.6% |
| 65-74 years | 22.6% | 38.0% | 34.4% | 32.3% | 18.9% | 13.4% | 13.0% | 13.6% | 11.1% |
| 75-84 years | 52.6% | 53.5% | 48.8% | 41.6% | 28.5% | 23.5% | 22.2% | 21.1% | 20.8% |
| 85+ years | 33.3% | 68.7% | 52.7% | 48.4% | 35.9% | 29.9% | 28.4% | 25.0% | 28.6% |
| Age_group | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-4 years | NA | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 05-14 years | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 15-24 years | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 25-34 years | 3.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 35-44 years | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 45-54 years | 0.0% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| 55-64 years | 4.8% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.8% |
| 65-74 years | 3.2% | 9.4% | 12.5% | 10.3% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 2.6% |
| 75-84 years | 15.8% | 20.0% | 23.3% | 18.7% | 15.3% | 16.0% | 13.3% | 11.6% | 7.9% |
| 85+ years | 66.7% | 41.2% | 39.0% | 33.2% | 31.0% | 29.0% | 24.9% | 22.8% | 18.8% |
| Age_group | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-4 years | NA | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 05-14 years | NaN | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.1% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 3.0% | 0.0% |
| 15-24 years | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| 25-34 years | 50.0% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 4.5% | 7.5% | 3.8% | 1.3% |
| 35-44 years | 20.0% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 3.2% |
| 45-54 years | 0.0% | 8.1% | 10.3% | 9.5% | 10.5% | 15.2% | 13.6% | 9.2% | 8.1% |
| 55-64 years | 23.1% | 13.9% | 18.1% | 14.1% | 21.5% | 29.3% | 27.6% | 20.3% | 13.9% |
| 65-74 years | 14.3% | 24.7% | 36.3% | 31.8% | 34.4% | 48.3% | 44.0% | 37.5% | 23.8% |
| 75-84 years | 30.0% | 37.4% | 47.7% | 44.8% | 53.9% | 68.1% | 60.1% | 54.7% | 38.2% |
| 85+ years | 200.0% | 60.0% | 74.1% | 68.6% | 86.4% | 96.8% | 87.8% | 91.3% | 65.9% |
| Month | Deaths | Cases |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 100 |
| 2 | 11 | 251 |
| 3 | 784 | 16,197 |
| 4 | 1,592 | 22,767 |
| 5 | 1,121 | 24,002 |
| 6 | 2,338 | 132,428 |
| 7 | 6,923 | 313,948 |
| 8 | 3,086 | 134,957 |
| 9 | 1,438 | 75,360 |
| 10 | 1,099 | 103,792 |
| 11 | 344 | 168,859 |
Estimating Deaths Using Case Fatality Ratio
Comparison of FL DOH caseline files by date show that a significant number of deaths are added to the last 15 days of reported Event Dates. We can estimate the “missing” deaths that have either not occurred yet or not been reported using the Case Fatality Ratio by age group from 15 days ago. The chart below shows the development of CFR over time.
The chart below estimates daily Covid deaths for the last 15 days using the 15-day ago CFR. This projects approximately 166 deaths will be added to the last 15 Event Dates (from 18,736 to 18,902).
FL Covid Deaths As A Percentage Of All FL Deaths In 2020
CDC data on FL lags the FL DOH data (which is where the CDC gets their data), but the weekly percentage of All FL Deaths due to Covid should be accurate unless Covid deaths are reported with a greater/lesser lag than other deaths. The last weekly CDC value indicates Covid deaths now comprise 3.3% of all FL deaths, down from a maximum weekly value of 26.1%.
FL Deaths From All Causes vs. Prior Years
The chart below compares 2020 to prior years. Deaths for prior years have been adjusted upwards to account for population growth. Through week 45, total deaths were 15,948 above the mean of the 4 prior years.
Florida Provisional CDC Cause of Death Data
Data for this table can be found here. It should be interpreted carefully as it is provisional. It also only includes selected causes of death, so numbers do not sum to the natural cause total. It also only compares to one year (2018 was a much worse flu year) and is not adjusted for population growth (approx. 1.1% p.a.). This table is through 2020-11-07 (I don’t use the most recent reported week because it suffers from lagged reporting). Most of the difference between “Covid multiple cause of death” and “Covid underlying cause” is counted in “influenza and pneumonia.” The large increase in “symptoms signs and abnormal” includes a large group of potential causes. Much of this category could be reassigned (note both diseases of the heart and malignant neoplasms are running unusually low).
| 2019 partial | 2020 partial | Difference | Pct Change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| all_cause | 184,056 | 209,995 | 25,939 | 14.1% |
| natural_cause | 166,908 | 192,014 | 25,106 | 15.0% |
| septicemia_a40_a41 | 2,212 | 2,294 | 82 | 3.7% |
| malignant_neoplasms_c00_c97 | 40,361 | 40,070 | -291 | -0.7% |
| diabetes_mellitus_e10_e14 | 5,439 | 6,498 | 1,059 | 19.5% |
| alzheimer_disease_g30 | 5,755 | 6,301 | 546 | 9.5% |
| influenza_and_pneumonia_j09_j18 | 2,370 | 2,873 | 503 | 21.2% |
| chronic_lower_respiratory | 10,649 | 10,449 | -200 | -1.9% |
| other_diseases_of_respiratory | 2,506 | 2,312 | -194 | -7.7% |
| nephritis_nephrotic_syndrome | 2,889 | 2,846 | -43 | -1.5% |
| symptoms_signs_and_abnormal | 2,663 | 4,959 | 2,296 | 86.2% |
| diseases_of_heart_i00_i09 | 42,021 | 43,318 | 1,297 | 3.1% |
| cerebrovascular_diseases | 12,316 | 13,535 | 1,219 | 9.9% |
| covid_19_u071_multiple_cause_of_death | 0 | 17,303 | 17,303 | Inf |
| covid_19_u071_underlying_cause_of_death | 0 | 15,403 | 15,403 | Inf |
March - October All Deaths vs. Covid Deaths
Florida publishes preliminary total deaths from all causes by month at this link. We can compare the total of all deaths from March through October in 2020 to those from prior years (October data is not yet complete). The table below subtracts the average of the population growth adjusted March - October deaths from a 2018-2019 baseline (I assume population has grown by 1.2% by year) from 2020’s March - October deaths. This is a gross “Excess Death” number. The Covid Deaths are from the New York Times database through October. The last column of the table subtracts the Covid deaths from the Excess Deaths to estimate Excess Deaths not attributable to Covid.
Totals for the state are shown on the first row.
| county | 2019-18adjBase | 2020AllDeaths | 2020vs2018-19Delta | Covid Deaths | nonCovidDelta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOTAL | 135574 | 159301 | 23727 | 13963 | 9764 |
| alachua | 2456 | 2643 | 187 | 60 | 127 |
| baker | 113 | 122 | 9 | 13 | -4 |
| bay | 1302 | 1486 | 184 | 108 | 76 |
| bradford | 133 | 109 | -24 | 9 | -33 |
| brevard | 5027 | 5512 | 485 | 298 | 187 |
| broward | 10154 | 12481 | 2327 | 1396 | 931 |
| calhoun | 109 | 120 | 11 | 11 | 0 |
| charlotte | 1854 | 2172 | 318 | 136 | 182 |
| citrus | 1642 | 1959 | 317 | 106 | 211 |
| clay | 1399 | 1660 | 261 | 100 | 161 |
| collier | 2305 | 2681 | 376 | 221 | 155 |
| columbia | 605 | 743 | 138 | 58 | 80 |
| desoto | 199 | 212 | 13 | 25 | -12 |
| dixie | 72 | 66 | -6 | 9 | -15 |
| duval | 6602 | 7726 | 1124 | 394 | 730 |
| escambia | 3108 | 3543 | 435 | 235 | 200 |
| flagler | 931 | 1070 | 139 | 27 | 112 |
| franklin | 59 | 73 | 14 | 4 | 10 |
| gadsden | 172 | 212 | 40 | 47 | -7 |
| gilchrist | 93 | 96 | 3 | 12 | -9 |
| glades | 43 | 45 | 2 | 4 | -2 |
| gulf | 79 | 108 | 29 | 14 | 15 |
| hamilton | 44 | 66 | 22 | 8 | 14 |
| hardee | 92 | 100 | 8 | 11 | -3 |
| hendry | 126 | 148 | 22 | 42 | -20 |
| hernando | 1867 | 2130 | 263 | 127 | 136 |
| highlands | 1093 | 1308 | 215 | 89 | 126 |
| hillsborough | 7946 | 9269 | 1323 | 646 | 677 |
| holmes | 145 | 167 | 22 | 8 | 14 |
| indian river | 1469 | 1585 | 116 | 119 | -3 |
| jackson | 387 | 411 | 24 | 80 | -56 |
| jefferson | 69 | 73 | 4 | 9 | -5 |
| lafayette | 37 | 48 | 11 | 12 | -1 |
| lake | 2673 | 3122 | 449 | 193 | 256 |
| lee | 4885 | 5662 | 777 | 468 | 309 |
| leon | 1797 | 2290 | 493 | 77 | 416 |
| levy | 156 | 286 | 130 | 9 | 121 |
| liberty | 25 | 24 | -1 | 8 | -9 |
| madison | 126 | 127 | 1 | 20 | -19 |
| manatee | 2725 | 3372 | 647 | 291 | 356 |
| marion | 3329 | 3935 | 606 | 290 | 316 |
| martin | 1241 | 1557 | 316 | 143 | 173 |
| miami-dade | 13924 | 18122 | 4198 | 3280 | 918 |
| monroe | 344 | 389 | 45 | 22 | 23 |
| nassau | 454 | 473 | 19 | 45 | -26 |
| okaloosa | 1274 | 1467 | 193 | 115 | 78 |
| okeechobee | 264 | 314 | 50 | 27 | 23 |
| orange | 6559 | 7570 | 1011 | 457 | 554 |
| osceola | 1524 | 1955 | 431 | 153 | 278 |
| palm beach | 10200 | 12218 | 2018 | 1369 | 649 |
| pasco | 4109 | 4492 | 383 | 209 | 174 |
| pinellas | 8607 | 9412 | 805 | 753 | 52 |
| polk | 4497 | 5386 | 889 | 531 | 358 |
| putnam | 563 | 599 | 36 | 40 | -4 |
| santa rosa | 767 | 867 | 100 | 77 | 23 |
| sarasota | 3926 | 4491 | 565 | 258 | 307 |
| seminole | 2435 | 2560 | 125 | 214 | -89 |
| sumter | 1404 | 1700 | 296 | 70 | 226 |
| suwannee | 221 | 261 | 40 | 71 | -31 |
| taylor | 116 | 118 | 2 | 13 | -11 |
| union | 78 | 101 | 23 | 16 | 7 |
| volusia | 4874 | 5477 | 603 | 249 | 354 |
| wakulla | 108 | 147 | 39 | 10 | 29 |
| walton | 458 | 473 | 15 | 25 | -10 |
| washington | 179 | 190 | 11 | 22 | -11 |