Here is a review of Marquette Law School polling from August 2019 through September 2020 in Wisconsin. All polls are state-wide samples of registered voters, with about 800 respondents per poll (1000 in Feb.) and a margin of error of about +/- 4 percentage points for each poll. Details of each survey and full methodology statement are available at https://law.marquette.edu/poll/category/results-and-data/

In the tables below, groups with a sample size (n) less than 150 should be viewed with caution due to a large margin of error.

Group voting in Wisconsin by sex

Pooling all Aug. 2019-Sept. 2020 polls the vote is 48 percent for Biden and 44 percent for Trump among registered voters. The vote by survey is shown in Table 1 below. Given the modest movement, I pool all polls to produce the best estimate of group alignments throughout the period, recognizing that there may be shifts from poll to poll and through the rest of the election campaign.

I’ve been asked about how much women differ across groups. The answer is a lot, but in virtually every group women are more pro-Biden than pro-Trump.

Table 1: Vote by survey wave in Wisconsin, Aug. 2019-Sept. 2020 among registered voters
Poll dates Net Biden Trump Neither Don’t know Refused n
8/25-29/19 9 51 42 4 2 1 800
10/13-17/19 6 50 44 3 3 0 799
11/13-17/19 -3 44 47 5 2 1 801
12/3-8/19 1 47 46 3 3 1 800
1/8-12/20 4 49 45 4 3 1 800
2/19-23/20 0 46 46 4 3 0 1000
3/24-29/20 3 48 45 3 3 1 813
5/3-7/20 3 46 43 4 4 2 811
6/14-18/20 8 49 41 5 3 2 805
8/4-9/20 6 48 42 6 3 1 801
8/30-9/3/20 6 46 40 3 5 2 802

Vote choice by groups by sex

Vote choice by groups by sex are shown in Table 2, arranged by group, and in Table 3 sorted from the most pro-Trump to the most pro-Biden groups. Table 2 is useful for comparing men and women within the same group while Table 3 shows the order from most-pro-Trump to most-pro-Biden, with many of the groups for men near the top and most groups for women near the bottom, but with interesting exceptions for groups in which both men and women are similar.

Table 2: Vote by groups by sex in Wisconsin, Aug 2019.-Sept. 2020 among registered voters
Group Sex Net Biden Trump n
MKE City Male 31 59 28 328
MKE City Female 60 76 16 411
Rest of MKE Male -26 33 59 1333
Rest of MKE Female 5 48 43 1492
msn Male 9 50 41 772
msn Female 46 69 23 860
GB/A Male -26 34 60 819
GB/A Female 8 49 41 909
Rest of state Male -19 36 55 995
Rest of state Female 13 52 39 1112
Subjective Urban Male 6 48 42 1062
Subjective Urban Female 39 65 26 1148
Subjective Suburban Male -11 40 51 1415
Subjective Suburban Female 21 56 35 1488
Subjective Rural Male -29 32 61 1349
Subjective Rural Female 4 48 44 1633
Principal city Male 11 50 39 1085
Principal city Female 44 68 24 1304
Suburban core Male -20 36 56 1258
Suburban core Female 13 52 39 1294
Exurbs and large towns Male -24 35 59 904
Exurbs and large towns Female 10 51 41 1012
Small town Male -24 34 58 377
Small town Female 1 45 44 453
Isolated rural Male -34 30 64 306
Isolated rural Female 4 49 45 390
CD-1 Male -25 34 59 447
CD-1 Female 5 49 44 554
CD-2 Male 17 54 37 487
CD-2 Female 57 75 18 555
CD-3 Male -14 39 53 480
CD-3 Female 18 55 37 529
CD-4 Male 26 59 33 331
CD-4 Female 59 76 17 419
CD-5 Male -37 27 64 539
CD-5 Female 8 50 42 554
CD-6 Male -17 38 55 482
CD-6 Female 3 47 44 544
CD-7 Male -26 33 59 392
CD-7 Female 8 51 43 472
CD-8 Male -27 34 61 407
CD-8 Female 4 47 43 462
All Male -14 39 53 4248
All Female 19 55 36 4784
18-29 Male -2 43 45 708
18-29 Female 45 67 22 547
30-39 Male -7 41 48 677
30-39 Female 22 55 33 561
40-49 Male -23 34 57 621
40-49 Female 18 54 36 618
50-59 Male -29 32 61 999
50-59 Female 8 50 42 1134
60-69 Male -10 42 52 665
60-69 Female 22 58 36 941
70+ Male -5 45 50 547
70+ Female 16 54 38 919
White Male -17 38 55 3574
White Female 14 53 39 4045
Black Male 62 74 12 176
Black Female 78 84 6 231
Hispanic Male 9 46 37 189
Hispanic Female 40 63 23 202
Not HS Male -4 43 47 106
Not HS Female 33 59 26 85
High school Male -23 34 57 1199
High school Female 13 52 39 1310
Some college Male -14 39 53 809
Some college Female 14 51 37 919
Associates Male -31 31 62 582
Associates Female 8 50 42 686
Bachelors Male -3 45 48 1041
Bachelors Female 22 58 36 1152
Post-BA Male 8 49 41 471
Post-BA Female 48 70 22 601
Married Male -21 36 57 2613
Married Female 8 50 42 2733
Widow/Div/Sep Male -11 39 50 767
Widow/Div/Sep Female 23 57 34 1255
Never Married Male 5 47 42 833
Never Married Female 55 73 18 745
Born again Male -47 24 71 737
Born again Female -18 37 55 993
Mainline Male -14 40 54 1010
Mainline Female 28 60 32 1216
Catholic Male -26 33 59 1230
Catholic Female 13 52 39 1304
Other religion Male 7 49 42 302
Other religion Female 29 61 32 377
No religion Male 29 58 29 802
No religion Female 58 74 16 732
Attend never Male 21 56 35 492
Attend never Female 49 70 21 488
Attend seldom Male -5 43 48 483
Attend seldom Female 34 65 31 524
Attend few/year Male -25 34 59 593
Attend few/year Female 33 64 31 523
Attend monthly Male -31 32 63 410
Attend monthly Female 21 55 34 429
Attend weekly or more Male -32 31 63 708
Attend weekly or more Female -9 42 51 1079
Union member Male 0 46 46 468
Union member Female 51 72 21 266
Union household Male -1 47 48 170
Union household Female 22 56 34 331
Non-union household Male -16 38 54 3552
Non-union household Female 17 54 37 4093
Very conservative Male -85 6 91 422
Very conservative Female -83 7 90 355
Conservative Male -70 12 82 1498
Conservative Female -48 22 70 1263
Moderate Male 17 53 36 1348
Moderate Female 42 66 24 1679
Liberal Male 78 86 8 569
Liberal Female 83 89 6 886
Very liberal Male 80 86 6 220
Very liberal Female 90 93 3 373
Rep Male -85 6 91 1399
Rep Female -83 6 89 1251
Lean Rep Male -72 10 82 854
Lean Rep Female -60 15 75 579
Ind Male -1 37 38 432
Ind Female 7 36 29 354
Lean Dem Male 73 81 8 632
Lean Dem Female 87 89 2 832
Dem Male 87 91 4 884
Dem Female 92 94 2 1682
Follow politics: most of the time Male -15 39 54 2891
Follow politics: most of the time Female 20 57 37 3026
Follow politics: some of the time Male -11 39 50 833
Follow politics: some of the time Female 19 54 35 1146
Follow politics: now and then Male -15 35 50 318
Follow politics: now and then Female 11 47 36 339
Follow politics: hardly at all Male 2 46 44 191
Follow politics: hardly at all Female 17 45 28 270
Enthused: Very Male -15 40 55 1776
Enthused: Very Female 24 60 36 2027
Enthused: Somewhat Male -11 38 49 613
Enthused: Somewhat Female 13 51 38 643
Enthused: Not too Male -3 37 40 163
Enthused: Not too Female 9 44 35 214
Enthused: Not at all Male -3 34 37 162
Enthused: Not at all Female 16 34 18 170
Non-farm Male -13 39 52 3455
Non-farm Female 21 56 35 4031
Farmer Male -30 32 62 397
Farmer Female -3 43 46 311
Table 3: Vote by groups by sex in Wisconsin, sorted, Aug. 2019-Aug. 2020 among registered voters
Group Sex Net Biden Trump n
Very conservative Male -85 6 91 422
Rep Male -85 6 91 1399
Very conservative Female -83 7 90 355
Rep Female -83 6 89 1251
Lean Rep Male -72 10 82 854
Conservative Male -70 12 82 1498
Lean Rep Female -60 15 75 579
Conservative Female -48 22 70 1263
Born again Male -47 24 71 737
CD-5 Male -37 27 64 539
Isolated rural Male -34 30 64 306
Attend weekly or more Male -32 31 63 708
Associates Male -31 31 62 582
Attend monthly Male -31 32 63 410
Farmer Male -30 32 62 397
Subjective Rural Male -29 32 61 1349
50-59 Male -29 32 61 999
CD-8 Male -27 34 61 407
Rest of MKE Male -26 33 59 1333
GB/A Male -26 34 60 819
CD-7 Male -26 33 59 392
Catholic Male -26 33 59 1230
CD-1 Male -25 34 59 447
Attend few/year Male -25 34 59 593
Exurbs and large towns Male -24 35 59 904
Small town Male -24 34 58 377
40-49 Male -23 34 57 621
High school Male -23 34 57 1199
Married Male -21 36 57 2613
Suburban core Male -20 36 56 1258
Rest of state Male -19 36 55 995
Born again Female -18 37 55 993
CD-6 Male -17 38 55 482
White Male -17 38 55 3574
Non-union household Male -16 38 54 3552
Follow politics: most of the time Male -15 39 54 2891
Follow politics: now and then Male -15 35 50 318
Enthused: Very Male -15 40 55 1776
CD-3 Male -14 39 53 480
All Male -14 39 53 4248
Some college Male -14 39 53 809
Mainline Male -14 40 54 1010
Non-farm Male -13 39 52 3455
Subjective Suburban Male -11 40 51 1415
Widow/Div/Sep Male -11 39 50 767
Follow politics: some of the time Male -11 39 50 833
Enthused: Somewhat Male -11 38 49 613
60-69 Male -10 42 52 665
Attend weekly or more Female -9 42 51 1079
30-39 Male -7 41 48 677
70+ Male -5 45 50 547
Attend seldom Male -5 43 48 483
Not HS Male -4 43 47 106
Bachelors Male -3 45 48 1041
Enthused: Not too Male -3 37 40 163
Enthused: Not at all Male -3 34 37 162
Farmer Female -3 43 46 311
18-29 Male -2 43 45 708
Union household Male -1 47 48 170
Ind Male -1 37 38 432
Union member Male 0 46 46 468
Small town Female 1 45 44 453
Follow politics: hardly at all Male 2 46 44 191
CD-6 Female 3 47 44 544
Subjective Rural Female 4 48 44 1633
Isolated rural Female 4 49 45 390
CD-8 Female 4 47 43 462
Rest of MKE Female 5 48 43 1492
CD-1 Female 5 49 44 554
Never Married Male 5 47 42 833
Subjective Urban Male 6 48 42 1062
Other religion Male 7 49 42 302
Ind Female 7 36 29 354
GB/A Female 8 49 41 909
CD-5 Female 8 50 42 554
CD-7 Female 8 51 43 472
50-59 Female 8 50 42 1134
Associates Female 8 50 42 686
Post-BA Male 8 49 41 471
Married Female 8 50 42 2733
msn Male 9 50 41 772
Hispanic Male 9 46 37 189
Enthused: Not too Female 9 44 35 214
Exurbs and large towns Female 10 51 41 1012
Principal city Male 11 50 39 1085
Follow politics: now and then Female 11 47 36 339
Rest of state Female 13 52 39 1112
Suburban core Female 13 52 39 1294
High school Female 13 52 39 1310
Catholic Female 13 52 39 1304
Enthused: Somewhat Female 13 51 38 643
White Female 14 53 39 4045
Some college Female 14 51 37 919
70+ Female 16 54 38 919
Enthused: Not at all Female 16 34 18 170
CD-2 Male 17 54 37 487
Non-union household Female 17 54 37 4093
Moderate Male 17 53 36 1348
Follow politics: hardly at all Female 17 45 28 270
CD-3 Female 18 55 37 529
40-49 Female 18 54 36 618
All Female 19 55 36 4784
Follow politics: some of the time Female 19 54 35 1146
Follow politics: most of the time Female 20 57 37 3026
Subjective Suburban Female 21 56 35 1488
Attend never Male 21 56 35 492
Attend monthly Female 21 55 34 429
Non-farm Female 21 56 35 4031
30-39 Female 22 55 33 561
60-69 Female 22 58 36 941
Bachelors Female 22 58 36 1152
Union household Female 22 56 34 331
Widow/Div/Sep Female 23 57 34 1255
Enthused: Very Female 24 60 36 2027
CD-4 Male 26 59 33 331
Mainline Female 28 60 32 1216
Other religion Female 29 61 32 377
No religion Male 29 58 29 802
MKE City Male 31 59 28 328
Not HS Female 33 59 26 85
Attend few/year Female 33 64 31 523
Attend seldom Female 34 65 31 524
Subjective Urban Female 39 65 26 1148
Hispanic Female 40 63 23 202
Moderate Female 42 66 24 1679
Principal city Female 44 68 24 1304
18-29 Female 45 67 22 547
msn Female 46 69 23 860
Post-BA Female 48 70 22 601
Attend never Female 49 70 21 488
Union member Female 51 72 21 266
Never Married Female 55 73 18 745
CD-2 Female 57 75 18 555
No religion Female 58 74 16 732
CD-4 Female 59 76 17 419
MKE City Female 60 76 16 411
Black Male 62 74 12 176
Lean Dem Male 73 81 8 632
Black Female 78 84 6 231
Liberal Male 78 86 8 569
Very liberal Male 80 86 6 220
Liberal Female 83 89 6 886
Lean Dem Female 87 89 2 832
Dem Male 87 91 4 884
Very liberal Female 90 93 3 373
Dem Female 92 94 2 1682