| Use high probability estimates when positively framing a scenario to increase the perceived magnitude of the positive benefits (Flugstad & Windschitl 2003 [Studies 1-3]; Kupor & Laurin 2020 [Study 1, 2, 3, & 4]). |
07001, 07002, 07003, 17201, 17202, 17203, 17204 |
3 |
2.43 |
2.00 |
2.48 |
| Use deterministic formats to increase the perceived certainty of the forecast (Joslyn, Savelli, & Nadav-Greenberg 2011 [Study 1, 2, 3 & 4]). |
14601, 14602, 14603, 14604 |
2 |
2.38 |
2.88 |
2.42 |
| When comparing between probability and frequency formats, there are no significant benefits to one over the other (Hendrickx et al 1989; Joslyn et. al 2009i [Study 1 & 2]; Neace et. al 2008 [Study 1]; Knapp et. al 2016; Evans et. al 2000 [Study 1, 2 & 3]; Ruiz et al. 2013; Strathie et al. 2017). |
11501, 14401, 14402, 21701, 15901, 06601, 06602, 06603, 26001, 28801 |
3 |
1.83 |
2.35 |
2.39 |
| Use caution when relying on frequency formats alone to reduce interpretation errors because reference class tends to interact with formats, negating the benefit of using frequencies in place of probabilities (Evans et. al 2000 [Study 1, 2 & 3]; Cuite et al. 2008; Neace et. al 2008 [Study 1, 2, 3, 4 & 5]; Joslyn et. al 2009i [Study 1 & 2]; Knapp et. al 2016). |
06601, 06602, 06603, 04601, 21701, 21702, 21703, 21704, 21705, 14401, 14402, 15901 |
3 |
1.85 |
2.17 |
2.34 |
| Use of 1 in X formats instead of X in NX formats to increase risk understanding (Grimes & Snively 1999; Pighin, et al. 2015; Oudhoff & Timmermans 2015; Denes-Raj, Epstein, & Cole 1995 [Study 1, 2 & 3]; Bell & Tobin 2007; Carey et al. 2018; Pighin et al. 2011). |
09601, 24101, 22301, 04901, 04902, 04903, 01901, 03501, 24201, 24202, 24203, 24204 |
3 |
1.71 |
2.08 |
2.26 |
| Advantageous use of frequency and percentage formats for accuracy of risk comprehension are dependent given the task at hand and the context of the risk (Cuite et. al 2008; Knapp et. al 2009 [Study 1 & 2]; Sinayev et al. 2015; Wallsten et al. 1986). |
04601, 23501, 23502, 27601, 30901 |
3 |
1.75 |
2.00 |
2.25 |
| Use loss-based framing to increase risk perception and encourage detection-related behavior (Grimm et al. n.d.; Banks et al. 1995; Chua et al. 2006 [Study 1]; Garcia-Retamero & Cokely 2011; Teigen & Brun 2003 [Study 1, & 4]). |
09701, 01501, 04101, 07901, 29401, 29402, 29403, 29404 |
3 |
1.72 |
1.94 |
2.22 |
| Avoid including uncertainty and ambiguity with loss-based framing to encourage risk mitigation action (Morton et al. 2011; Levin, Snyder, & Chapman 1998; Windshitl & Weber 1999; Keren & Gerritsen 1999). |
21001, 21002, 17901, 31601, 31602, 31603, 31604, 15601 |
3 |
1.72 |
1.94 |
2.22 |
| Use frequency formats to reduce interpretation errors (Neace et al. 2008 [Study 2, 3, 4, & 5]; Knapp, Raynor, Woolf et. al. 2009; Cuite et al. 2008). |
21702, 21703, 21704, 21705, 16001, 04601 |
3 |
1.75 |
1.83 |
2.19 |
| Avoid the use of negative framing with less numerate audiences and in situations involving specific risks with high uncertainty in order to mitigate its detrimental effect on decision making (Kuhn 1997 [Study 1 & 2]; Morton et al. 2011 [Study 1 & 2]; Peters & Levin 2008; Armstrong et al. 2002; Peters et al. 2006). |
16801, 16802, 21001, 21002, 23801, 00901, 23901 |
3 |
1.75 |
1.57 |
2.11 |
| Use icon array visualizations to increase risk comprehension and understanding of probabilistic information (Tubau et. al 2019 [Study 1 & 2]; Galesic et. al 2009 [Study 1 & 2]; Garcia-Retamero et. al 2010 [Study 1 & 2]; Garcia-Retamero 2009; Keller & Siegrist 2009; Schirillo & Stone 2005; Garcia-Retamero & Cokely 2014; Garcia-Retamero & Galesic 2010a). |
30301, 30302, 07801, 07802, 08901, 08902, 15301, 26701, 08001, 08401 |
3 |
1.95 |
1.35 |
2.10 |
| Use gain-based framing to encourage risk avoidance and preventive behavior (Garcia-Retamero & Cokely, 2011; Wernsted et al. 2019). |
07901, 31401 |
2 |
2.12 |
2.00 |
2.04 |
| Giving risk probability statements a positive affect and a frequency format, leads to increased risk perceptions (Wu, Zeng, & Wu 2018 [Study 1, 2 & 3]). |
17301, 17302, 17303 |
2 |
1.83 |
2.00 |
1.94 |
| Use experience-based formats to reduce the tendency for individuals to overrate rare risks and rely on emotions for decision-making (Tyszka & Sawicki 2011 [Study 1 & 2]). |
30401, 30402 |
2 |
2.25 |
1.50 |
1.92 |
| Use of single target probabilities increases perceptions of forecast reliability in comparison to multi-target probability frames (Koehler 2001 [Study 1, 2 & 3]). |
16201, 16202, 16203 |
2 |
1.67 |
2.00 |
1.89 |
| Present both key words and percentages in forecast messages (Coventry & Dalgleish 2015 [Study 1, 2, 3]). |
04501, 04502, 04503 |
2 |
1.17 |
2.50 |
1.89 |
| Present forecasts as more severe to increase the perceived likelihood of the risk (A. G. Patt & Schrag 2003). |
00101 |
1 |
1.50 |
3.00 |
1.83 |
| Do not use user self-expressed preferences as a reliable basis for probabilistic information formatting, given that expressed preferences for particular formats over another do not relate to increased risk comprehension (Barnes et. al 2016; Erev & Cohen 1990). |
01701, 06401 |
2 |
1.50 |
1.75 |
1.75 |
| Present data in relative terms rather than in absolute terms to increase risk perception (Malenka et al. 1993; Baron 1997 [Study 1]; Stone, Yates, & Parker 1994). |
19001, 01801, 28601, 28602 |
2 |
1.75 |
1.50 |
1.75 |
| Present information as representative to increase trust in forecasts (Windschitl & Weber 1999 [Study 2]; McKenzie & Nelson 2003 [Study 1, 2, & 3]). |
31602, 19801, 19802, 19803 |
2 |
1.38 |
1.75 |
1.71 |
| Use absolute risk formats when aiming to communicate higher levels of urgency and risk perceptions (Galesic et al. 2009 [Study 1]; Zikmund-Fisher, Fagerlin, et al. 2008 [Study 1 & 2]; Ilic, Murphy, & Green 2012). |
07801, 32501, 32502, 12901 |
2 |
1.88 |
1.25 |
1.71 |
| Use of visuals is more effective in communicating probabilistic information with younger audiences (Ulph, Townsend, & Glazebrook 2009). |
30501 |
1 |
2.00 |
2.00 |
1.67 |
| Use externally focused expressions “It is X% certain” instead of internally focused expressions “ I am X% certain” to increase perceived accuracy (Lohre & Teigen 2016 [Study 1, 2, & 4]). |
18401, 18402, 18404 |
2 |
1.42 |
1.33 |
1.58 |
| Keep in mind that while absolute risk formats can produce greater accuracy, users among the general public might find such presentation of information overwhelming or even confusing (Peter Knapp et al. 2010). |
23601 |
1 |
2.00 |
1.00 |
1.33 |
| Use simplified probabilistic forecast formats rather than full range probabilistic forecasts or deterministic to reduce cognitive overload and confusion and improve decision-making and facilitate increased forecast trust (Durbach & Stewart 2011; Nadav-Greenberg & Joslyn 2009 [Study 1 & 2]; Savelli & Joslyn 2013 [Study 1, 2, & 3]; Joslyn, Nemec, & Savelli 2013 [Study 1 & 2]; Joslyn & Demnitz 2019 [Study 1 & 2]; LeClerc & Joslyn 2012). |
06201, 21301, 21302, 26501, 26502, 26503, 26101, 26102, 14101, 14102, 17401 |
3 |
NA |
NA |
NA |
| Use higher probabilities to increase perceived accuracy and confidence in forecasts (Bagchi & Ince 2016 [Study 1, 2, 3, 4 & 5]; Dieckman, Mauro, & Slovic 2010 [Study 1]; Lohre, Sobkow, et al. 2019 [Study 1, 2, 3, & 4]; Juanchich & Sirota 2017 [Study 1, & 2]). |
01201, 01202, 01203, 01204, 01205, 05501, 18601, 18602, 18603, 18604, 14801, 14802 |
3 |
NA |
NA |
NA |
| Use time uncertain formats for presenting future event probabilities to increase risk perceptions and endorsement of protective decisions (Ballard & Lewandowsky 2015). |
1401 |
1 |
NA |
NA |
NA |
| Use relative risk formats to reduce risk perceptions (Zikmund-Fisher, Ubel, et al. 2008; Hux & Naylor 2016; Malenka et al. 1993; Brase 2002 [Study 1, 2, 3 & 4]; de Bruin et al. 2000). |
32601, 12801, 19001, 02701, 02702, 20703, 02704, 04801 |
3 |
NA |
NA |
NA |