Weekly Scheduling Luck

Welcome to the 2020 Fantasy Football Weekly Scheduling Luck Report.

Whether you win or lose each week can be highly dependent on who you are scheduled to play that week. You could get a win because you played the only player worse than you that week or lose because you played the only player better than you. I represent this concept with a “luck” score of -1 to 1. A luck value of 1 means you got really lucky and played the only opponent you could have beaten. A luck value of -1 means you played the only opponent this week that could have beaten you.

This Weeks Results

. Player Result Teams.Could.Have.Beat Chance.to.Win
Luckiest Player(s): Layton W 3 27.3 %
Unluckiest Player(s): Chad L 7 63.6 %
Week Player Score Opp.Score WL Luck
4 David 152.60 123.52 W 0.0
4 Andrew 147.78 68.74 W 0.1
4 Dwight 142.52 123.76 W 0.2
4 Nick 127.40 123.98 W 0.3
4 Chad 123.98 127.40 L -0.7
4 Brett 123.76 142.52 L -0.6
4 Tyler 123.52 152.60 L -0.5
4 Doug 121.72 83.38 W 0.7
4 Layton 118.50 113.20 W 0.8
4 Grant 113.20 118.50 L -0.2
4 Cody 83.38 121.72 L -0.1
4 Jeff 68.74 147.78 L 0.0

Weekly Luck Plot

Total Season Luck

In this section I plot your actual wins agains the number of expected wins. I calculate expected wins by summing the percentages of wins against all opponents each week. So, if you could have beated 6 of 11 teams in Week 1 then that is .55 expected wins. If you did that for four weeks straight then after 4 weeks you would have 2.2 expected wins.

Power Rankings

Player Power Rankings

In this newly created section, I rank the league based on a weighted average of actual wins (1/3 the score) and expected wins (2/3 the score). The score also attributes 70% to the full season and 30% to just the last 4 games. This combined score is indexed against the average score across all teams. The score shows the % of the average for that player (so a score of 120 means 20% over average and a score of 60 means 40% below the average).

Division Power Rankings

Scoring Distribution

Below is the distribution of scores. The numbers represent the week in which the score occured. This plot allows us to see who is most consistent.

Opponent Performance vs Average

In this section I compare how your opponents have performed against you vs how they perform on average. Plotted is the median, 25%, and 75% quantiles for the difference between what your opponents score against you and their average score. For example, a difference of 12 means median score your opponents have against you is 12 points higher than their average for the season.