Monthly Public Safety Report
Soluciones Inteligencia y Estrategia (SIE)
sie.info@sie-analisis.com
August 20, 2020
- This report shows summary data about crime in Mexico at Federal and State levels: total crimes and intentional homicides reported. The data comes from the state prosecutor’s offices and is gathered by the Mexican Agency called Secretariado Ejecutivo del Sistema Nacional de Seguridad Pública (SESNSP). Besides, the data related to geographic and population come from the Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (INEGI).
Section 1. State crimes in Mexico 2015-2020
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From January to July 2020, more than one million crimes were reported in Mexico , this represent a monthly average of 148 thousand offenses. Also, the number of crimes grew up 7.8% annual average between 2015 and 2019 (see Figure 1.1).
From January 2015 to March 2020 crime trend increased steadily. Nevertheless, in April 2020 crimes reported went down by 31%, this drop could be explained by the Great Lockdown by Covid-19 in Mexico: the less mobility the less crime reported.
However, from May to July 2020 crime increased on average 8.8% , this suggests a “V” shape recovery in number of offenses, the main factor in this rebound can be to the return to a new normal: more people in the streets the more opportunities for offenders to make crimes (see Figure 1.2).
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From January to August 2020 the number of crimes per 100,000 Inhabitants was about 859 (from here will be called it crime rate).
In 2020, five Mexican states have the highest crime rate: Colima (1,974), Aguascalientes (1,557), Baja California (1,498), Querétaro (1,483) and Quintana Roo (1,437). On the other hand, the states with the lowest crime rate are: Campeche (123), Tlaxcala (179), Nayarit (189), Chiapas (194) and Yucatán (220) [see Map 1.1].
30 out of 32 states reduced crime rates from January to July 2020 for the same period of last year. Again, the explanation of this reductions rest on the Covid-19 lockdown and maybe some public safety actions implemented by local law enforcement (see Figure 1.3)..
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- Finally, in 2020 property crimes has been the more common offense reported to state law enforcement agencies, it represents almost 50% of the total crime reports in Mexico. Property crime are those related to motor vehicle theft, robbery, burglary, cargo theft, fraud, extortion, among others.
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| Table 1.1 Crime reports to SESNSP | ||
|---|---|---|
| January to July | ||
| Kind of crime: | Year 2020 | Percentage |
| Property | 495,433 | 48 |
| Domestic | 141,711 | 14 |
| Sex | 30,612 | 3 |
| Society | 5,824 | 1 |
| Life | 135,728 | 13 |
| Kidnapping | 11,427 | 1 |
| Other | 221,353 | 21 |
| Total crimes | 1,042,088 | 100 |
Section 2. Intentional Homicide in Mexico 2015-2020
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From 2015 to 2019, Intentional Homicides (IH) reports has increased by 16.5% on annual average. Besides, from January to August 2020, Mexican Law Enforcement Agencies registered 17,016 IH reports (see Figure 2.1). In Mexico, some reports have more than one victim, so the total of people murderer is about 20,494.
The monthly average of IH during the first seven months in 2020 (2,431 IH) is one percent lower than the monthly average observed in the same period in 2019 (2,455 IH).
_Additionally, from January 2015 to July 2020 the number of IH increased 1.2% on average each month (in July 2028 Mexico reached the maximum number of IH: 2,640 reports. Since this point IH reports remain at very high levels) [see Figure 2.2].
- In Mexico, IH reports have a seasonal effect, because from May to August of each year the IH reports increase in those months. The seasonal effect was also observed even during the Covid-19´s lockdown. Figure 2.2 shows that after lockdown in March the IH reports decreases, but since Jun 2015 they have grown up 4% and the line graph describe a “V shape” in the recovery of IH.
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Furthermore, in the first seven months of 2020, Mexico had a rate of 24.2 Intentional Homicides per 100,000 Inhabitants (from here will be called it IH rate). Mexico’s IH rate is bigger than global average (6.1) and also bigger than Americas Continent average (17.2) [Source: United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime].
Moreover, the five states with highest IH rate in 2020 are: Colima (47), Baja California (42), Chihuahua (38), Guanajuato (34) and Zacatecas (26): The western and north-western regions of Mexico.
On the other hand, the five states with lower IH rate are: Yucatán (1), Baja (4) California Sur (4), Aguascalientes (4), Coahuila y Campeche (4): southern region of Mexico (see Map 2.1).
In 2020, 50% of Mexico’s IH reports has concentrated on six states: Guanajuato (1,980), Baja California (1,468), Estado de México (1,444), Michoacán (1,413) and Chihuahua (1,128). The main factor that explains such number of IH reports is organized crime activities like illegal drug, firearms and fuel trafficking.
From January to July 2020, the Mexican states with the highest variation in IH rate compare to the same period in 2019 were: Sonora (+ 39%), Zacatecas3 (+ 37%), San Luis Potosí (+33 %), Michoacán (+ 33%) and Guanajuato (27%) [see Figure 2.3].
Conversely, the Mexican states that have a remarkable reduction on IH rate were Baja California Sur (-43%), Tlaxcala (-29%), Guerrero (-23%), Mexico City ( -20%) and Coahuila (-20%) [see Figure 2.3].
- Finally, we highlight that 71% of IH reports in 2019 were carried out with firearms. This suggests that IH reduction could be reached with a strict firearm control policy in Mexico.