Motor Trend Magzine - Regreesion Models
Syed Shaheryar Tirmizi
8/28/2020
Executive Summary
The basic aim of this assignment is to analyze which transmission mode (Auto or Manual) is better in terms of Miles per gallon. All I have to do is to use linear regression model that will minimize the error and has required variables. mtcars dataset, provided by r, is used in this analysis. The analysis also focuses on relationship of mpg with other variables.
1. Preliminary Analysis
library(datasets)
library(ggplot2)## Warning: package 'ggplot2' was built under R version 4.0.5data("mtcars")
dim(mtcars)## [1] 32 11str(mtcars)## 'data.frame': 32 obs. of 11 variables:
## $ mpg : num 21 21 22.8 21.4 18.7 18.1 14.3 24.4 22.8 19.2 ...
## $ cyl : num 6 6 4 6 8 6 8 4 4 6 ...
## $ disp: num 160 160 108 258 360 ...
## $ hp : num 110 110 93 110 175 105 245 62 95 123 ...
## $ drat: num 3.9 3.9 3.85 3.08 3.15 2.76 3.21 3.69 3.92 3.92 ...
## $ wt : num 2.62 2.88 2.32 3.21 3.44 ...
## $ qsec: num 16.5 17 18.6 19.4 17 ...
## $ vs : num 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 ...
## $ am : num 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ...
## $ gear: num 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 ...
## $ carb: num 4 4 1 1 2 1 4 2 2 4 ...summary(mtcars)## mpg cyl disp hp
## Min. :10.40 Min. :4.000 Min. : 71.1 Min. : 52.0
## 1st Qu.:15.43 1st Qu.:4.000 1st Qu.:120.8 1st Qu.: 96.5
## Median :19.20 Median :6.000 Median :196.3 Median :123.0
## Mean :20.09 Mean :6.188 Mean :230.7 Mean :146.7
## 3rd Qu.:22.80 3rd Qu.:8.000 3rd Qu.:326.0 3rd Qu.:180.0
## Max. :33.90 Max. :8.000 Max. :472.0 Max. :335.0
## drat wt qsec vs
## Min. :2.760 Min. :1.513 Min. :14.50 Min. :0.0000
## 1st Qu.:3.080 1st Qu.:2.581 1st Qu.:16.89 1st Qu.:0.0000
## Median :3.695 Median :3.325 Median :17.71 Median :0.0000
## Mean :3.597 Mean :3.217 Mean :17.85 Mean :0.4375
## 3rd Qu.:3.920 3rd Qu.:3.610 3rd Qu.:18.90 3rd Qu.:1.0000
## Max. :4.930 Max. :5.424 Max. :22.90 Max. :1.0000
## am gear carb
## Min. :0.0000 Min. :3.000 Min. :1.000
## 1st Qu.:0.0000 1st Qu.:3.000 1st Qu.:2.000
## Median :0.0000 Median :4.000 Median :2.000
## Mean :0.4062 Mean :3.688 Mean :2.812
## 3rd Qu.:1.0000 3rd Qu.:4.000 3rd Qu.:4.000
## Max. :1.0000 Max. :5.000 Max. :8.000head(mtcars)## mpg cyl disp hp drat wt qsec vs am gear carb
## Mazda RX4 21.0 6 160 110 3.90 2.620 16.46 0 1 4 4
## Mazda RX4 Wag 21.0 6 160 110 3.90 2.875 17.02 0 1 4 4
## Datsun 710 22.8 4 108 93 3.85 2.320 18.61 1 1 4 1
## Hornet 4 Drive 21.4 6 258 110 3.08 3.215 19.44 1 0 3 1
## Hornet Sportabout 18.7 8 360 175 3.15 3.440 17.02 0 0 3 2
## Valiant 18.1 6 225 105 2.76 3.460 20.22 1 0 3 1So, the dataset contains 11 variables and 32 records. Moreover, am variable shows transmission mode (1 for manual & 0 for automatic)
2. Data Pre-processing
mtcars$am<-as.factor(mtcars$am)
levels(mtcars$am)<-c("Automatic", "Manual")The am variable is now a factor of 2. Let’s check it now
class(mtcars$am)## [1] "factor"head(mtcars)## mpg cyl disp hp drat wt qsec vs am gear carb
## Mazda RX4 21.0 6 160 110 3.90 2.620 16.46 0 Manual 4 4
## Mazda RX4 Wag 21.0 6 160 110 3.90 2.875 17.02 0 Manual 4 4
## Datsun 710 22.8 4 108 93 3.85 2.320 18.61 1 Manual 4 1
## Hornet 4 Drive 21.4 6 258 110 3.08 3.215 19.44 1 Automatic 3 1
## Hornet Sportabout 18.7 8 360 175 3.15 3.440 17.02 0 Automatic 3 2
## Valiant 18.1 6 225 105 2.76 3.460 20.22 1 Automatic 3 13. Hypothesis Validation
Let’s just consider 2 variables only i-e mpg and am. Null Hypothesis states that there is no difference between mean of trasnmission modes. In other words, it states that transmission modes has no effect on mgp. Let’s validate it with t test.
t.test(mtcars$mpg~mtcars$am)##
## Welch Two Sample t-test
##
## data: mtcars$mpg by mtcars$am
## t = -3.7671, df = 18.332, p-value = 0.001374
## alternative hypothesis: true difference in means is not equal to 0
## 95 percent confidence interval:
## -11.280194 -3.209684
## sample estimates:
## mean in group Automatic mean in group Manual
## 17.14737 24.39231Since P value (0.001) is less then the Threshold value (0.05), hence we can reject the null hypothesis. It means that there is difference between means of automatic and manual mode (Alternative Hypothesis)
4. Regression Analysis
To further investigate Alternative hypothesis, let’s do some regression modeling.
model1<-lm(mpg~am,mtcars)
summary(model1)##
## Call:
## lm(formula = mpg ~ am, data = mtcars)
##
## Residuals:
## Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
## -9.3923 -3.0923 -0.2974 3.2439 9.5077
##
## Coefficients:
## Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
## (Intercept) 17.147 1.125 15.247 1.13e-15 ***
## amManual 7.245 1.764 4.106 0.000285 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## Residual standard error: 4.902 on 30 degrees of freedom
## Multiple R-squared: 0.3598, Adjusted R-squared: 0.3385
## F-statistic: 16.86 on 1 and 30 DF, p-value: 0.000285By this simple model, we can conclude that, on average, Manual mode cars travel 7.245 miles per gallon more than that of Automatic mode cars provided that other variables remain constant. This model is not efficient as Adjusted R Squared value (0.3345) suggests that it accounts or only 33.45% variance.
Let’s see what happens if we add all variables in our model
model2<-lm(mpg~., mtcars)
summary(model2)##
## Call:
## lm(formula = mpg ~ ., data = mtcars)
##
## Residuals:
## Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
## -3.4506 -1.6044 -0.1196 1.2193 4.6271
##
## Coefficients:
## Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
## (Intercept) 12.30337 18.71788 0.657 0.5181
## cyl -0.11144 1.04502 -0.107 0.9161
## disp 0.01334 0.01786 0.747 0.4635
## hp -0.02148 0.02177 -0.987 0.3350
## drat 0.78711 1.63537 0.481 0.6353
## wt -3.71530 1.89441 -1.961 0.0633 .
## qsec 0.82104 0.73084 1.123 0.2739
## vs 0.31776 2.10451 0.151 0.8814
## amManual 2.52023 2.05665 1.225 0.2340
## gear 0.65541 1.49326 0.439 0.6652
## carb -0.19942 0.82875 -0.241 0.8122
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## Residual standard error: 2.65 on 21 degrees of freedom
## Multiple R-squared: 0.869, Adjusted R-squared: 0.8066
## F-statistic: 13.93 on 10 and 21 DF, p-value: 3.793e-07This model is good and accounts for 80.66% variance.
To choose best model, step function in r is useful that returns the best model acoording to the given parameters. in my case, I didn’t add any other parameters and used the default setting.
bestModl<-step(model2, trace = 0)
summary(bestModl)##
## Call:
## lm(formula = mpg ~ wt + qsec + am, data = mtcars)
##
## Residuals:
## Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
## -3.4811 -1.5555 -0.7257 1.4110 4.6610
##
## Coefficients:
## Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
## (Intercept) 9.6178 6.9596 1.382 0.177915
## wt -3.9165 0.7112 -5.507 6.95e-06 ***
## qsec 1.2259 0.2887 4.247 0.000216 ***
## amManual 2.9358 1.4109 2.081 0.046716 *
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## Residual standard error: 2.459 on 28 degrees of freedom
## Multiple R-squared: 0.8497, Adjusted R-squared: 0.8336
## F-statistic: 52.75 on 3 and 28 DF, p-value: 1.21e-11Now this model accounts for 83.36% variance and includes 3 variables i-e Transmission mode (am), weight (wt) and qsec (1/4 mile time).
5. Conclusion
From simple regression model, it is concluded that Manual mode is better than Automatic mode with other variable remain constant
negative sign with wt indicates that weight is negatively associated with mpg. Moreover, this model suggests that Manual mode is better than Auto mode by 2.9358 miles.
Apendix
Appendix 1: Boxplot of mpg with Transmission mode
g<-ggplot(mtcars, aes(x=am, y=mpg))+geom_boxplot(outlier.colour = "black", outlier.shape = 2, fill="purple")
g<-g + labs(title = "Comparative effect of Automatic and manual cars on Miles per Gallon (mpg)", x="Transimission mode", y="Miles per gallon")
g
Appendix 2: Residual Plots
par(mfrow=c(2,2))
plot(bestModl)