This is an R Markdown document for the data that can be found in the following link.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-general-data/presidential_national_toplines_2020.csv
This data gives the forecast for the elections conducted in the year 2020.
D <- read.csv('https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-general-data/presidential_national_toplines_2020.csv')
print(D)## cycle branch model modeldate candidate_inc candidate_chal
## 1 2020 President polls-plus 8/29/2020 Trump Biden
## 2 2020 President polls-plus 8/28/2020 Trump Biden
## 3 2020 President polls-plus 8/27/2020 Trump Biden
## 4 2020 President polls-plus 8/26/2020 Trump Biden
## 5 2020 President polls-plus 8/25/2020 Trump Biden
## 6 2020 President polls-plus 8/24/2020 Trump Biden
## 7 2020 President polls-plus 8/23/2020 Trump Biden
## 8 2020 President polls-plus 8/22/2020 Trump Biden
## 9 2020 President polls-plus 8/21/2020 Trump Biden
## 10 2020 President polls-plus 8/20/2020 Trump Biden
## 11 2020 President polls-plus 8/19/2020 Trump Biden
## 12 2020 President polls-plus 8/18/2020 Trump Biden
## 13 2020 President polls-plus 8/17/2020 Trump Biden
## 14 2020 President polls-plus 8/16/2020 Trump Biden
## 15 2020 President polls-plus 8/15/2020 Trump Biden
## 16 2020 President polls-plus 8/14/2020 Trump Biden
## 17 2020 President polls-plus 8/13/2020 Trump Biden
## 18 2020 President polls-plus 8/12/2020 Trump Biden
## 19 2020 President polls-plus 8/11/2020 Trump Biden
## 20 2020 President polls-plus 8/10/2020 Trump Biden
## 21 2020 President polls-plus 8/9/2020 Trump Biden
## 22 2020 President polls-plus 8/8/2020 Trump Biden
## 23 2020 President polls-plus 8/7/2020 Trump Biden
## 24 2020 President polls-plus 8/6/2020 Trump Biden
## 25 2020 President polls-plus 8/5/2020 Trump Biden
## 26 2020 President polls-plus 8/4/2020 Trump Biden
## 27 2020 President polls-plus 8/3/2020 Trump Biden
## 28 2020 President polls-plus 8/2/2020 Trump Biden
## 29 2020 President polls-plus 8/1/2020 Trump Biden
## 30 2020 President polls-plus 7/31/2020 Trump Biden
## 31 2020 President polls-plus 7/30/2020 Trump Biden
## 32 2020 President polls-plus 7/29/2020 Trump Biden
## 33 2020 President polls-plus 7/28/2020 Trump Biden
## 34 2020 President polls-plus 7/27/2020 Trump Biden
## 35 2020 President polls-plus 7/26/2020 Trump Biden
## 36 2020 President polls-plus 7/25/2020 Trump Biden
## 37 2020 President polls-plus 7/24/2020 Trump Biden
## 38 2020 President polls-plus 7/23/2020 Trump Biden
## 39 2020 President polls-plus 7/22/2020 Trump Biden
## 40 2020 President polls-plus 7/21/2020 Trump Biden
## 41 2020 President polls-plus 7/20/2020 Trump Biden
## 42 2020 President polls-plus 7/19/2020 Trump Biden
## 43 2020 President polls-plus 7/18/2020 Trump Biden
## 44 2020 President polls-plus 7/17/2020 Trump Biden
## 45 2020 President polls-plus 7/16/2020 Trump Biden
## 46 2020 President polls-plus 7/15/2020 Trump Biden
## 47 2020 President polls-plus 7/14/2020 Trump Biden
## 48 2020 President polls-plus 7/13/2020 Trump Biden
## 49 2020 President polls-plus 7/12/2020 Trump Biden
## 50 2020 President polls-plus 7/11/2020 Trump Biden
## 51 2020 President polls-plus 7/10/2020 Trump Biden
## 52 2020 President polls-plus 7/9/2020 Trump Biden
## 53 2020 President polls-plus 7/8/2020 Trump Biden
## 54 2020 President polls-plus 7/7/2020 Trump Biden
## 55 2020 President polls-plus 7/6/2020 Trump Biden
## 56 2020 President polls-plus 7/5/2020 Trump Biden
## 57 2020 President polls-plus 7/4/2020 Trump Biden
## 58 2020 President polls-plus 7/3/2020 Trump Biden
## 59 2020 President polls-plus 7/2/2020 Trump Biden
## 60 2020 President polls-plus 7/1/2020 Trump Biden
## 61 2020 President polls-plus 6/30/2020 Trump Biden
## 62 2020 President polls-plus 6/29/2020 Trump Biden
## 63 2020 President polls-plus 6/28/2020 Trump Biden
## 64 2020 President polls-plus 6/27/2020 Trump Biden
## 65 2020 President polls-plus 6/26/2020 Trump Biden
## 66 2020 President polls-plus 6/25/2020 Trump Biden
## 67 2020 President polls-plus 6/24/2020 Trump Biden
## 68 2020 President polls-plus 6/23/2020 Trump Biden
## 69 2020 President polls-plus 6/22/2020 Trump Biden
## 70 2020 President polls-plus 6/21/2020 Trump Biden
## 71 2020 President polls-plus 6/20/2020 Trump Biden
## 72 2020 President polls-plus 6/19/2020 Trump Biden
## 73 2020 President polls-plus 6/18/2020 Trump Biden
## 74 2020 President polls-plus 6/17/2020 Trump Biden
## 75 2020 President polls-plus 6/16/2020 Trump Biden
## 76 2020 President polls-plus 6/15/2020 Trump Biden
## 77 2020 President polls-plus 6/14/2020 Trump Biden
## 78 2020 President polls-plus 6/13/2020 Trump Biden
## 79 2020 President polls-plus 6/12/2020 Trump Biden
## 80 2020 President polls-plus 6/11/2020 Trump Biden
## 81 2020 President polls-plus 6/10/2020 Trump Biden
## 82 2020 President polls-plus 6/9/2020 Trump Biden
## 83 2020 President polls-plus 6/8/2020 Trump Biden
## 84 2020 President polls-plus 6/7/2020 Trump Biden
## 85 2020 President polls-plus 6/6/2020 Trump Biden
## 86 2020 President polls-plus 6/5/2020 Trump Biden
## 87 2020 President polls-plus 6/4/2020 Trump Biden
## 88 2020 President polls-plus 6/3/2020 Trump Biden
## 89 2020 President polls-plus 6/2/2020 Trump Biden
## 90 2020 President polls-plus 6/1/2020 Trump Biden
## candidate_3rd ecwin_inc ecwin_chal ecwin_3rd ec_nomajority popwin_inc
## 1 NA 0.307525 0.688200 NA 0.004275 0.188325
## 2 NA 0.303500 0.692525 NA 0.003975 0.186225
## 3 NA 0.299400 0.696400 NA 0.004200 0.182875
## 4 NA 0.300550 0.695550 NA 0.003900 0.185375
## 5 NA 0.270450 0.725875 NA 0.003675 0.162850
## 6 NA 0.269575 0.726975 NA 0.003450 0.165475
## 7 NA 0.267300 0.729625 NA 0.003075 0.166625
## 8 NA 0.271000 0.725500 NA 0.003500 0.166700
## 9 NA 0.267575 0.728750 NA 0.003675 0.164850
## 10 NA 0.273650 0.722825 NA 0.003525 0.167700
## 11 NA 0.278625 0.717275 NA 0.004100 0.173150
## 12 NA 0.267750 0.729100 NA 0.003150 0.166375
## 13 NA 0.272400 0.723750 NA 0.003850 0.169750
## 14 NA 0.282075 0.714500 NA 0.003425 0.175925
## 15 NA 0.277450 0.719150 NA 0.003400 0.172850
## 16 NA 0.267475 0.729250 NA 0.003275 0.165700
## 17 NA 0.275200 0.721600 NA 0.003200 0.177575
## 18 NA 0.287650 0.708750 NA 0.003600 0.183050
## 19 NA 0.286600 0.710250 NA 0.003150 0.190525
## 20 NA 0.283950 0.712875 NA 0.003175 0.190750
## 21 NA 0.287175 0.709125 NA 0.003700 0.194675
## 22 NA 0.291200 0.705500 NA 0.003300 0.196425
## 23 NA 0.297150 0.699200 NA 0.003650 0.201050
## 24 NA 0.293200 0.703325 NA 0.003475 0.199275
## 25 NA 0.297725 0.698925 NA 0.003350 0.202450
## 26 NA 0.280400 0.716625 NA 0.002975 0.184400
## 27 NA 0.283250 0.712975 NA 0.003775 0.187500
## 28 NA 0.283925 0.712425 NA 0.003650 0.187975
## 29 NA 0.286075 0.710875 NA 0.003050 0.188825
## 30 NA 0.286700 0.710125 NA 0.003175 0.190775
## 31 NA 0.260900 0.735900 NA 0.003200 0.168075
## 32 NA 0.266675 0.729925 NA 0.003400 0.170825
## 33 NA 0.260625 0.736300 NA 0.003075 0.166600
## 34 NA 0.266750 0.729775 NA 0.003475 0.173875
## 35 NA 0.267475 0.729375 NA 0.003150 0.178825
## 36 NA 0.262025 0.735000 NA 0.002975 0.180675
## 37 NA 0.270275 0.726500 NA 0.003225 0.183275
## 38 NA 0.264100 0.732575 NA 0.003325 0.181825
## 39 NA 0.252225 0.745000 NA 0.002775 0.178925
## 40 NA 0.258300 0.739150 NA 0.002550 0.185725
## 41 NA 0.249550 0.747950 NA 0.002500 0.177900
## 42 NA 0.256600 0.740800 NA 0.002600 0.180875
## 43 NA 0.261350 0.735600 NA 0.003050 0.181425
## 44 NA 0.262300 0.734850 NA 0.002850 0.182225
## 45 NA 0.259350 0.737950 NA 0.002700 0.180450
## 46 NA 0.239200 0.758000 NA 0.002800 0.164800
## 47 NA 0.258525 0.738500 NA 0.002975 0.179300
## 48 NA 0.258175 0.738850 NA 0.002975 0.177825
## 49 NA 0.270000 0.726775 NA 0.003225 0.184450
## 50 NA 0.279450 0.717150 NA 0.003400 0.194600
## 51 NA 0.275200 0.721600 NA 0.003200 0.189850
## 52 NA 0.272700 0.724550 NA 0.002750 0.189925
## 53 NA 0.269625 0.727375 NA 0.003000 0.185725
## 54 NA 0.268400 0.728375 NA 0.003225 0.184825
## 55 NA 0.280850 0.715800 NA 0.003350 0.198900
## 56 NA 0.237350 0.759375 NA 0.003275 0.156425
## 57 NA 0.239875 0.756850 NA 0.003275 0.159775
## 58 NA 0.238125 0.758950 NA 0.002925 0.156225
## 59 NA 0.240025 0.756300 NA 0.003675 0.159175
## 60 NA 0.235350 0.761525 NA 0.003125 0.162675
## 61 NA 0.235475 0.761375 NA 0.003150 0.161425
## 62 NA 0.209525 0.787850 NA 0.002625 0.136775
## 63 NA 0.211325 0.785625 NA 0.003050 0.137200
## 64 NA 0.208100 0.788425 NA 0.003475 0.134900
## 65 NA 0.206375 0.790550 NA 0.003075 0.137300
## 66 NA 0.216950 0.779500 NA 0.003550 0.142750
## 67 NA 0.210325 0.786725 NA 0.002950 0.139475
## 68 NA 0.217100 0.780075 NA 0.002825 0.145800
## 69 NA 0.215400 0.781600 NA 0.003000 0.142300
## 70 NA 0.219500 0.777475 NA 0.003025 0.147625
## 71 NA 0.222000 0.775150 NA 0.002850 0.148500
## 72 NA 0.225175 0.771925 NA 0.002900 0.151700
## 73 NA 0.237500 0.759450 NA 0.003050 0.160200
## 74 NA 0.235175 0.761575 NA 0.003250 0.160625
## 75 NA 0.239600 0.756750 NA 0.003650 0.163200
## 76 NA 0.247800 0.749025 NA 0.003175 0.164850
## 77 NA 0.234775 0.762550 NA 0.002675 0.153375
## 78 NA 0.237150 0.759350 NA 0.003500 0.158700
## 79 NA 0.242350 0.754300 NA 0.003350 0.158900
## 80 NA 0.245325 0.751250 NA 0.003425 0.161850
## 81 NA 0.283950 0.711825 NA 0.004225 0.181900
## 82 NA 0.288525 0.707200 NA 0.004275 0.188000
## 83 NA 0.303425 0.692525 NA 0.004050 0.199800
## 84 NA 0.302275 0.693500 NA 0.004225 0.199750
## 85 NA 0.305250 0.690850 NA 0.003900 0.201325
## 86 NA 0.307750 0.687725 NA 0.004525 0.205150
## 87 NA 0.288350 0.707550 NA 0.004100 0.187825
## 88 NA 0.292525 0.703475 NA 0.004000 0.190275
## 89 NA 0.293975 0.702250 NA 0.003775 0.192300
## 90 NA 0.295900 0.700575 NA 0.003525 0.194300
## popwin_chal popwin_3rd ev_inc ev_chal ev_3rd ev_inc_hi ev_chal_hi
## 1 0.811675 NA 220.7868 317.2131 NA 337 429.0
## 2 0.813775 NA 220.4639 317.5361 NA 337 429.0
## 3 0.817125 NA 220.3914 317.6086 NA 336 428.0
## 4 0.814625 NA 220.8551 317.1448 NA 337 428.0
## 5 0.837150 NA 213.9388 324.0612 NA 331 432.0
## 6 0.834525 NA 213.7483 324.2517 NA 332 432.0
## 7 0.833375 NA 212.5292 325.4708 NA 331 435.0
## 8 0.833300 NA 213.3921 324.6079 NA 331 433.0
## 9 0.835150 NA 213.0551 324.9449 NA 331 433.0
## 10 0.832300 NA 215.0446 322.9554 NA 333 431.0
## 11 0.826850 NA 216.3484 321.6516 NA 335 429.0
## 12 0.833625 NA 214.7168 323.2832 NA 333 430.0
## 13 0.830250 NA 215.2729 322.7271 NA 333 431.0
## 14 0.824075 NA 215.5538 322.4463 NA 336 431.0
## 15 0.827150 NA 213.2509 324.7491 NA 335 434.0
## 16 0.834300 NA 211.6081 326.3919 NA 333 433.0
## 17 0.822425 NA 213.7498 324.2502 NA 336 434.0
## 18 0.816950 NA 215.1911 322.8088 NA 337 433.0
## 19 0.809475 NA 214.9498 323.0502 NA 337 433.0
## 20 0.809250 NA 214.5426 323.4573 NA 337 435.0
## 21 0.805325 NA 215.6911 322.3089 NA 339 433.0
## 22 0.803575 NA 216.0827 321.9173 NA 339 433.0
## 23 0.798950 NA 217.1632 320.8368 NA 340 434.0
## 24 0.800725 NA 216.8208 321.1793 NA 341 433.0
## 25 0.797550 NA 217.5150 320.4850 NA 341 433.0
## 26 0.815600 NA 212.0597 325.9403 NA 337 435.0
## 27 0.812500 NA 212.9614 325.0386 NA 337 435.0
## 28 0.812025 NA 213.0605 324.9395 NA 338 435.0
## 29 0.811175 NA 212.7638 325.2362 NA 338 436.0
## 30 0.809225 NA 213.5757 324.4243 NA 340 436.0
## 31 0.831925 NA 208.4238 329.5762 NA 334 436.0
## 32 0.829175 NA 209.0400 328.9600 NA 335 438.0
## 33 0.833400 NA 207.1326 330.8674 NA 333 440.0
## 34 0.826125 NA 208.6976 329.3023 NA 336 438.0
## 35 0.821175 NA 208.3017 329.6984 NA 336 439.0
## 36 0.819325 NA 209.0473 328.9527 NA 337 439.0
## 37 0.816725 NA 209.7756 328.2244 NA 337 440.0
## 38 0.818175 NA 207.8097 330.1903 NA 335 441.0
## 39 0.821075 NA 206.5702 331.4298 NA 335 441.0
## 40 0.814275 NA 208.3234 329.6766 NA 337 441.0
## 41 0.822100 NA 205.5820 332.4180 NA 335 444.0
## 42 0.819125 NA 206.8156 331.1844 NA 334 443.0
## 43 0.818575 NA 207.1693 330.8307 NA 335 445.0
## 44 0.817775 NA 206.6574 331.3426 NA 335 444.0
## 45 0.819550 NA 205.8413 332.1587 NA 335 445.0
## 46 0.835200 NA 202.8228 335.1772 NA 330 444.0
## 47 0.820700 NA 205.0833 332.9167 NA 335 446.0
## 48 0.822175 NA 204.7945 333.2055 NA 335 446.0
## 49 0.815550 NA 206.4143 331.5857 NA 337 446.0
## 50 0.805400 NA 208.5454 329.4546 NA 338 446.0
## 51 0.810150 NA 207.4411 330.5589 NA 338 446.0
## 52 0.810075 NA 208.0501 329.9499 NA 337 444.0
## 53 0.814275 NA 206.8318 331.1682 NA 337 446.0
## 54 0.815175 NA 206.8485 331.1515 NA 337 446.0
## 55 0.801100 NA 211.0341 326.9659 NA 339 444.0
## 56 0.843575 NA 202.7701 335.2299 NA 326 443.0
## 57 0.840225 NA 203.1415 334.8585 NA 326 444.0
## 58 0.843775 NA 201.9703 336.0297 NA 326 445.0
## 59 0.840825 NA 202.9859 335.0142 NA 327 444.0
## 60 0.837325 NA 202.0124 335.9876 NA 327 446.0
## 61 0.838575 NA 202.2096 335.7904 NA 328 446.0
## 62 0.863225 NA 196.8280 341.1720 NA 318 446.0
## 63 0.862800 NA 196.2056 341.7944 NA 318 446.0
## 64 0.865100 NA 196.2634 341.7366 NA 317 446.0
## 65 0.862700 NA 195.4595 342.5405 NA 317 448.0
## 66 0.857250 NA 198.2772 339.7228 NA 320 446.0
## 67 0.860525 NA 196.5073 341.4927 NA 318 447.0
## 68 0.854200 NA 197.7610 340.2390 NA 322 447.0
## 69 0.857700 NA 198.0367 339.9633 NA 320 447.0
## 70 0.852375 NA 199.1915 338.8086 NA 322 446.0
## 71 0.851500 NA 199.5023 338.4977 NA 322 446.0
## 72 0.848300 NA 200.5645 337.4355 NA 325 446.0
## 73 0.839800 NA 201.7995 336.2005 NA 329 446.0
## 74 0.839375 NA 202.0645 335.9355 NA 327 446.0
## 75 0.836800 NA 203.4893 334.5107 NA 328 444.0
## 76 0.835150 NA 205.0138 332.9862 NA 328 442.5
## 77 0.846625 NA 201.9950 336.0050 NA 326 443.0
## 78 0.841300 NA 203.3475 334.6525 NA 326 443.0
## 79 0.841100 NA 203.9240 334.0760 NA 326 442.0
## 80 0.838150 NA 204.4158 333.5842 NA 328 442.0
## 81 0.818100 NA 211.3559 326.6442 NA 333 438.0
## 82 0.812000 NA 213.6465 324.3535 NA 334 435.0
## 83 0.800200 NA 216.1307 321.8693 NA 337 434.0
## 84 0.800250 NA 216.4880 321.5120 NA 337 434.0
## 85 0.798675 NA 217.2131 320.7869 NA 338 433.0
## 86 0.794850 NA 218.2592 319.7408 NA 339 432.0
## 87 0.812175 NA 213.6946 324.3054 NA 335 434.0
## 88 0.809725 NA 214.5781 323.4219 NA 335 433.0
## 89 0.807700 NA 214.0240 323.9760 NA 337 435.0
## 90 0.805700 NA 215.0013 322.9987 NA 337 435.0
## ev_3rd_hi ev_inc_lo ev_chal_lo ev_3rd_lo national_voteshare_inc
## 1 NA 109.0 201 NA 46.26345
## 2 NA 109.0 201 NA 46.25870
## 3 NA 110.0 202 NA 46.28278
## 4 NA 110.0 201 NA 46.30215
## 5 NA 106.0 207 NA 46.02112
## 6 NA 106.0 206 NA 46.02100
## 7 NA 103.0 207 NA 45.96653
## 8 NA 105.0 207 NA 46.01094
## 9 NA 105.0 207 NA 45.99585
## 10 NA 107.0 205 NA 46.07849
## 11 NA 109.0 203 NA 46.13017
## 12 NA 108.0 205 NA 46.08685
## 13 NA 107.0 205 NA 46.10958
## 14 NA 107.0 202 NA 46.16774
## 15 NA 104.0 203 NA 46.05632
## 16 NA 105.0 205 NA 45.98938
## 17 NA 104.0 202 NA 46.11533
## 18 NA 105.0 201 NA 46.17112
## 19 NA 105.0 201 NA 46.20192
## 20 NA 103.0 201 NA 46.19029
## 21 NA 105.0 199 NA 46.24909
## 22 NA 105.0 199 NA 46.26159
## 23 NA 104.0 198 NA 46.29543
## 24 NA 105.0 197 NA 46.28619
## 25 NA 105.0 197 NA 46.31205
## 26 NA 103.0 201 NA 46.10718
## 27 NA 103.0 201 NA 46.13739
## 28 NA 103.0 200 NA 46.13912
## 29 NA 102.0 200 NA 46.11985
## 30 NA 102.0 198 NA 46.14778
## 31 NA 102.0 204 NA 45.93544
## 32 NA 100.0 203 NA 45.92358
## 33 NA 98.0 205 NA 45.85881
## 34 NA 100.0 202 NA 45.91749
## 35 NA 99.0 202 NA 45.97368
## 36 NA 99.0 201 NA 45.99001
## 37 NA 98.0 201 NA 45.99775
## 38 NA 97.0 203 NA 45.94709
## 39 NA 97.0 203 NA 45.89418
## 40 NA 97.0 201 NA 45.95774
## 41 NA 94.0 203 NA 45.83913
## 42 NA 95.0 204 NA 45.89302
## 43 NA 93.0 203 NA 45.88900
## 44 NA 94.0 203 NA 45.89483
## 45 NA 93.0 203 NA 45.83747
## 46 NA 94.0 208 NA 45.71204
## 47 NA 92.0 203 NA 45.80495
## 48 NA 92.0 203 NA 45.78563
## 49 NA 92.0 201 NA 45.85665
## 50 NA 92.0 200 NA 45.93150
## 51 NA 92.0 200 NA 45.90247
## 52 NA 94.0 201 NA 45.90316
## 53 NA 92.0 201 NA 45.85991
## 54 NA 92.0 201 NA 45.85553
## 55 NA 94.0 199 NA 46.00682
## 56 NA 95.0 212 NA 45.65043
## 57 NA 94.0 212 NA 45.65899
## 58 NA 93.0 212 NA 45.59909
## 59 NA 94.0 211 NA 45.64618
## 60 NA 92.0 211 NA 45.62083
## 61 NA 92.0 210 NA 45.61910
## 62 NA 92.0 220 NA 45.39993
## 63 NA 92.0 220 NA 45.40212
## 64 NA 92.0 221 NA 45.40378
## 65 NA 90.0 221 NA 45.36304
## 66 NA 92.0 218 NA 45.47114
## 67 NA 91.0 220 NA 45.38713
## 68 NA 91.0 216 NA 45.44068
## 69 NA 91.0 218 NA 45.40881
## 70 NA 92.0 216 NA 45.48504
## 71 NA 92.0 216 NA 45.49785
## 72 NA 92.0 213 NA 45.53778
## 73 NA 92.0 209 NA 45.61443
## 74 NA 92.0 211 NA 45.61938
## 75 NA 94.0 210 NA 45.68271
## 76 NA 95.5 210 NA 45.75811
## 77 NA 95.0 212 NA 45.60586
## 78 NA 95.0 212 NA 45.68189
## 79 NA 96.0 212 NA 45.73086
## 80 NA 96.0 210 NA 45.76586
## 81 NA 100.0 205 NA 46.01114
## 82 NA 103.0 204 NA 46.13130
## 83 NA 104.0 201 NA 46.24477
## 84 NA 104.0 201 NA 46.27370
## 85 NA 105.0 200 NA 46.31012
## 86 NA 106.0 199 NA 46.36461
## 87 NA 104.0 203 NA 46.17122
## 88 NA 105.0 203 NA 46.22312
## 89 NA 103.0 201 NA 46.17807
## 90 NA 103.0 201 NA 46.20322
## national_voteshare_chal national_voteshare_3rd nat_voteshare_other
## 1 52.40189 NA 1.334657
## 2 52.40611 NA 1.335190
## 3 52.39348 NA 1.323738
## 4 52.37099 NA 1.326856
## 5 52.67421 NA 1.304669
## 6 52.67212 NA 1.306889
## 7 52.73164 NA 1.301827
## 8 52.69307 NA 1.296000
## 9 52.71219 NA 1.291965
## 10 52.63926 NA 1.282259
## 11 52.58604 NA 1.283783
## 12 52.63010 NA 1.283045
## 13 52.61044 NA 1.279983
## 14 52.54878 NA 1.283478
## 15 52.65100 NA 1.292678
## 16 52.71326 NA 1.297362
## 17 52.59297 NA 1.291699
## 18 52.52475 NA 1.304139
## 19 52.49453 NA 1.303546
## 20 52.49098 NA 1.318731
## 21 52.43238 NA 1.318526
## 22 52.41681 NA 1.321599
## 23 52.38504 NA 1.319530
## 24 52.39062 NA 1.323194
## 25 52.36253 NA 1.325420
## 26 52.57859 NA 1.314234
## 27 52.54492 NA 1.317685
## 28 52.54113 NA 1.319745
## 29 52.56147 NA 1.318686
## 30 52.53598 NA 1.316235
## 31 52.74822 NA 1.316337
## 32 52.74941 NA 1.327006
## 33 52.81291 NA 1.328276
## 34 52.74271 NA 1.339798
## 35 52.68783 NA 1.338491
## 36 52.67056 NA 1.339427
## 37 52.66726 NA 1.334995
## 38 52.71225 NA 1.340660
## 39 52.77857 NA 1.327248
## 40 52.70412 NA 1.338143
## 41 52.83022 NA 1.330654
## 42 52.79765 NA 1.309328
## 43 52.79903 NA 1.311972
## 44 52.78936 NA 1.315802
## 45 52.84692 NA 1.315601
## 46 52.97364 NA 1.314317
## 47 52.87408 NA 1.320971
## 48 52.89586 NA 1.318501
## 49 52.81900 NA 1.324355
## 50 52.73925 NA 1.329244
## 51 52.77518 NA 1.322349
## 52 52.77600 NA 1.320845
## 53 52.81811 NA 1.321982
## 54 52.82038 NA 1.324095
## 55 52.66445 NA 1.328738
## 56 53.03101 NA 1.318557
## 57 53.02658 NA 1.314429
## 58 53.08897 NA 1.311937
## 59 53.04318 NA 1.310638
## 60 53.07158 NA 1.307595
## 61 53.07162 NA 1.309282
## 62 53.29433 NA 1.305736
## 63 53.29407 NA 1.303815
## 64 53.29099 NA 1.305233
## 65 53.33689 NA 1.300071
## 66 53.23003 NA 1.298833
## 67 53.31142 NA 1.301456
## 68 53.24420 NA 1.315118
## 69 53.28255 NA 1.308633
## 70 53.20727 NA 1.307690
## 71 53.19890 NA 1.303245
## 72 53.14845 NA 1.313769
## 73 53.07222 NA 1.313351
## 74 53.05688 NA 1.323733
## 75 52.99614 NA 1.321142
## 76 52.92667 NA 1.315226
## 77 53.07205 NA 1.322089
## 78 53.00398 NA 1.314134
## 79 52.94989 NA 1.319247
## 80 52.91450 NA 1.319637
## 81 52.67278 NA 1.316082
## 82 52.55380 NA 1.314901
## 83 52.43583 NA 1.319401
## 84 52.41333 NA 1.312971
## 85 52.37800 NA 1.311875
## 86 52.32565 NA 1.309747
## 87 52.52184 NA 1.306939
## 88 52.47629 NA 1.300588
## 89 52.50252 NA 1.319418
## 90 52.47558 NA 1.321204
## national_voteshare_inc_hi national_voteshare_chal_hi
## 1 50.76155 56.91839
## 2 50.75557 56.87645
## 3 50.70728 56.78292
## 4 50.74532 56.80884
## 5 50.43880 57.08401
## 6 50.49995 57.11697
## 7 50.48808 57.27232
## 8 50.45963 57.18472
## 9 50.45788 57.17679
## 10 50.51525 57.06075
## 11 50.59136 57.03696
## 12 50.46551 57.04149
## 13 50.53724 57.08716
## 14 50.68077 57.06306
## 15 50.63273 57.21465
## 16 50.49768 57.17666
## 17 50.64245 57.13207
## 18 50.70852 57.11084
## 19 50.83683 57.10124
## 20 50.86157 57.14674
## 21 50.95182 57.08838
## 22 50.90287 57.07491
## 23 51.01738 57.09568
## 24 51.04249 57.13195
## 25 51.07544 57.09853
## 26 50.79708 57.24018
## 27 50.85131 57.25592
## 28 50.89564 57.26371
## 29 50.86026 57.29603
## 30 50.89336 57.31334
## 31 50.53705 57.31424
## 32 50.57730 57.41732
## 33 50.51357 57.47815
## 34 50.67381 57.51265
## 35 50.72295 57.42074
## 36 50.81696 57.41073
## 37 50.81271 57.48201
## 38 50.77929 57.56994
## 39 50.78386 57.56590
## 40 50.84897 57.62970
## 41 50.79581 57.76260
## 42 50.81057 57.69178
## 43 50.83132 57.75053
## 44 50.84206 57.76880
## 45 50.77852 57.80231
## 46 50.58324 57.78214
## 47 50.81122 57.86454
## 48 50.83285 57.92501
## 49 50.96870 57.89326
## 50 51.06208 57.84136
## 51 51.00501 57.90038
## 52 51.00532 57.83777
## 53 50.98801 57.89178
## 54 50.93465 57.89341
## 55 51.19341 57.79437
## 56 50.38384 57.78221
## 57 50.45331 57.82705
## 58 50.39472 57.87640
## 59 50.45094 57.82728
## 60 50.48866 57.95334
## 61 50.48285 57.91264
## 62 50.07216 57.93801
## 63 50.07193 57.91077
## 64 50.05018 57.91059
## 65 50.07875 58.02941
## 66 50.17564 57.90521
## 67 50.10804 58.01170
## 68 50.26096 57.99630
## 69 50.19436 58.07500
## 70 50.30505 57.97070
## 71 50.29456 57.98159
## 72 50.37589 57.97366
## 73 50.51035 57.92015
## 74 50.49227 57.91314
## 75 50.54545 57.88606
## 76 50.55040 57.72252
## 77 50.35146 57.85870
## 78 50.44640 57.77147
## 79 50.44556 57.68588
## 80 50.50735 57.66437
## 81 50.75439 57.43367
## 82 50.85634 57.30523
## 83 50.99332 57.17598
## 84 51.05724 57.18650
## 85 51.04198 57.07314
## 86 51.10926 57.06739
## 87 50.82633 57.19538
## 88 50.83650 57.11295
## 89 50.94933 57.25562
## 90 50.93565 57.19166
## national_voteshare_3rd_hi nat_voteshare_other_hi national_voteshare_inc_lo
## 1 NA 2.051201 41.77486
## 2 NA 2.055656 41.81157
## 3 NA 2.031385 41.89773
## 4 NA 2.043283 41.88205
## 5 NA 2.018928 41.62480
## 6 NA 2.018909 41.58252
## 7 NA 2.018991 41.44489
## 8 NA 2.007976 41.51054
## 9 NA 2.007226 41.53521
## 10 NA 1.995835 41.65974
## 11 NA 2.001753 41.68420
## 12 NA 1.993258 41.67652
## 13 NA 1.995751 41.63440
## 14 NA 2.005195 41.68126
## 15 NA 2.011152 41.49172
## 16 NA 2.015094 41.51923
## 17 NA 2.010199 41.58178
## 18 NA 2.027544 41.56429
## 19 NA 2.028735 41.59494
## 20 NA 2.034930 41.55241
## 21 NA 2.041819 41.57322
## 22 NA 2.040766 41.58996
## 23 NA 2.049613 41.58004
## 24 NA 2.040946 41.55771
## 25 NA 2.043509 41.55804
## 26 NA 2.051642 41.43733
## 27 NA 2.043417 41.45840
## 28 NA 2.046737 41.42797
## 29 NA 2.046081 41.35671
## 30 NA 2.039262 41.40097
## 31 NA 2.040273 41.39065
## 32 NA 2.056378 41.25378
## 33 NA 2.047201 41.19240
## 34 NA 2.069063 41.17569
## 35 NA 2.060007 41.26720
## 36 NA 2.067447 41.24988
## 37 NA 2.060524 41.15303
## 38 NA 2.080228 41.13475
## 39 NA 2.062582 41.08658
## 40 NA 2.074060 41.06457
## 41 NA 2.062026 40.92534
## 42 NA 2.041990 40.96729
## 43 NA 2.044307 40.94530
## 44 NA 2.055070 40.93320
## 45 NA 2.064911 40.86111
## 46 NA 2.057694 40.90490
## 47 NA 2.058922 40.81569
## 48 NA 2.064288 40.74932
## 49 NA 2.064648 40.79765
## 50 NA 2.071240 40.82366
## 51 NA 2.069298 40.77045
## 52 NA 2.061967 40.85560
## 53 NA 2.067130 40.75243
## 54 NA 2.085074 40.77628
## 55 NA 2.070406 40.84578
## 56 NA 2.045832 40.91089
## 57 NA 2.047497 40.84191
## 58 NA 2.047345 40.80989
## 59 NA 2.046242 40.84299
## 60 NA 2.040026 40.74539
## 61 NA 2.045883 40.79374
## 62 NA 2.030914 40.73306
## 63 NA 2.031408 40.79256
## 64 NA 2.030622 40.77088
## 65 NA 2.029991 40.67146
## 66 NA 2.029225 40.78851
## 67 NA 2.035001 40.65841
## 68 NA 2.056763 40.67317
## 69 NA 2.048503 40.59536
## 70 NA 2.031235 40.70179
## 71 NA 2.028631 40.72705
## 72 NA 2.045823 40.72630
## 73 NA 2.051174 40.76797
## 74 NA 2.059546 40.75835
## 75 NA 2.061718 40.80315
## 76 NA 2.055342 40.92510
## 77 NA 2.051385 40.85883
## 78 NA 2.051785 40.89159
## 79 NA 2.043238 40.99991
## 80 NA 2.038496 41.04717
## 81 NA 2.049852 41.27679
## 82 NA 2.047077 41.38594
## 83 NA 2.051627 41.52457
## 84 NA 2.049617 41.49504
## 85 NA 2.050900 41.62245
## 86 NA 2.035725 41.62989
## 87 NA 2.039343 41.49159
## 88 NA 2.027426 41.60196
## 89 NA 2.049306 41.44363
## 90 NA 2.042146 41.49165
## national_voteshare_chal_lo national_voteshare_3rd_lo nat_voteshare_other_lo
## 1 47.88276 NA 0.7007713
## 2 47.90101 NA 0.7022665
## 3 47.98074 NA 0.6946608
## 4 47.91171 NA 0.6934588
## 5 48.26421 NA 0.6764926
## 6 48.18879 NA 0.6792486
## 7 48.20748 NA 0.6702565
## 8 48.20979 NA 0.6636156
## 9 48.24926 NA 0.6572114
## 10 48.17797 NA 0.6552740
## 11 48.12635 NA 0.6547295
## 12 48.22936 NA 0.6494714
## 13 48.18307 NA 0.6515047
## 14 48.06044 NA 0.6544272
## 15 48.07320 NA 0.6589594
## 16 48.21701 NA 0.6632900
## 17 48.04206 NA 0.6602212
## 18 47.97743 NA 0.6663016
## 19 47.85249 NA 0.6627616
## 20 47.82245 NA 0.6770315
## 21 47.72408 NA 0.6778314
## 22 47.74853 NA 0.6818589
## 23 47.65911 NA 0.6830333
## 24 47.63836 NA 0.6809334
## 25 47.58785 NA 0.6848398
## 26 47.88954 NA 0.6713542
## 27 47.84332 NA 0.6747655
## 28 47.76087 NA 0.6751224
## 29 47.80448 NA 0.6773493
## 30 47.77644 NA 0.6756095
## 31 48.10459 NA 0.6791376
## 32 48.10526 NA 0.6823090
## 33 48.15805 NA 0.6911978
## 34 48.00462 NA 0.6958647
## 35 47.95403 NA 0.6963304
## 36 47.85799 NA 0.6928883
## 37 47.82852 NA 0.6884896
## 38 47.90079 NA 0.6927854
## 39 47.88440 NA 0.6800984
## 40 47.79524 NA 0.6910916
## 41 47.89375 NA 0.6821630
## 42 47.88055 NA 0.6704755
## 43 47.86944 NA 0.6680883
## 44 47.84240 NA 0.6671382
## 45 47.90779 NA 0.6639907
## 46 48.11746 NA 0.6696864
## 47 47.87369 NA 0.6724886
## 48 47.83879 NA 0.6674164
## 49 47.72194 NA 0.6759626
## 50 47.59866 NA 0.6713284
## 51 47.68229 NA 0.6659154
## 52 47.66722 NA 0.6737902
## 53 47.69514 NA 0.6688289
## 54 47.73086 NA 0.6621054
## 55 47.48414 NA 0.6696514
## 56 48.25012 NA 0.6748977
## 57 48.23739 NA 0.6702497
## 58 48.28157 NA 0.6673132
## 59 48.25150 NA 0.6632474
## 60 48.21278 NA 0.6615871
## 61 48.19541 NA 0.6640405
## 62 48.61784 NA 0.6649159
## 63 48.59251 NA 0.6616051
## 64 48.67001 NA 0.6599336
## 65 48.61265 NA 0.6623695
## 66 48.51783 NA 0.6553170
## 67 48.58786 NA 0.6588315
## 68 48.44623 NA 0.6635910
## 69 48.48858 NA 0.6628679
## 70 48.40547 NA 0.6615897
## 71 48.41396 NA 0.6607718
## 72 48.32314 NA 0.6591908
## 73 48.17367 NA 0.6700203
## 74 48.17007 NA 0.6750205
## 75 48.15334 NA 0.6680158
## 76 48.12600 NA 0.6673417
## 77 48.30339 NA 0.6721538
## 78 48.24353 NA 0.6686158
## 79 48.22766 NA 0.6726680
## 80 48.18432 NA 0.6725276
## 81 47.92501 NA 0.6655345
## 82 47.83714 NA 0.6707772
## 83 47.69545 NA 0.6739508
## 84 47.63892 NA 0.6684470
## 85 47.62445 NA 0.6645366
## 86 47.55882 NA 0.6656066
## 87 47.87417 NA 0.6616863
## 88 47.85891 NA 0.6611356
## 89 47.74026 NA 0.6755669
## 90 47.73165 NA 0.6759679
## timestamp simulations
## 1 19:00:02 29 Aug 2020 40000
## 2 19:00:03 28 Aug 2020 40000
## 3 19:00:04 27 Aug 2020 40000
## 4 19:01:03 26 Aug 2020 40000
## 5 23:50:03 25 Aug 2020 40000
## 6 20:38:02 24 Aug 2020 40000
## 7 19:00:03 23 Aug 2020 40000
## 8 19:00:03 22 Aug 2020 40000
## 9 19:26:02 21 Aug 2020 40000
## 10 19:00:04 20 Aug 2020 40000
## 11 23:52:08 19 Aug 2020 40000
## 12 19:23:03 18 Aug 2020 40000
## 13 22:43:02 17 Aug 2020 40000
## 14 20:17:02 16 Aug 2020 40000
## 15 19:00:05 15 Aug 2020 40000
## 16 19:00:02 14 Aug 2020 40000
## 17 21:50:04 13 Aug 2020 40000
## 18 23:41:03 12 Aug 2020 40000
## 19 19:08:03 11 Aug 2020 40000
## 20 23:50:02 10 Aug 2020 40000
## 21 10:15:37 10 Aug 2020 40000
## 22 10:19:17 10 Aug 2020 40000
## 23 10:19:37 10 Aug 2020 40000
## 24 10:19:52 10 Aug 2020 40000
## 25 10:19:56 10 Aug 2020 40000
## 26 10:22:17 10 Aug 2020 40000
## 27 10:25:40 10 Aug 2020 40000
## 28 10:26:03 10 Aug 2020 40000
## 29 10:26:11 10 Aug 2020 40000
## 30 10:26:36 10 Aug 2020 40000
## 31 10:28:57 10 Aug 2020 40000
## 32 10:32:02 10 Aug 2020 40000
## 33 10:32:31 10 Aug 2020 40000
## 34 10:32:26 10 Aug 2020 40000
## 35 10:33:13 10 Aug 2020 40000
## 36 10:35:37 10 Aug 2020 40000
## 37 10:38:25 10 Aug 2020 40000
## 38 10:38:51 10 Aug 2020 40000
## 39 10:38:41 10 Aug 2020 40000
## 40 10:39:48 10 Aug 2020 40000
## 41 10:42:12 10 Aug 2020 40000
## 42 10:44:46 10 Aug 2020 40000
## 43 10:45:11 10 Aug 2020 40000
## 44 10:44:52 10 Aug 2020 40000
## 45 10:46:23 10 Aug 2020 40000
## 46 10:48:47 10 Aug 2020 40000
## 47 10:51:08 10 Aug 2020 40000
## 48 10:51:31 10 Aug 2020 40000
## 49 10:51:04 10 Aug 2020 40000
## 50 10:52:57 10 Aug 2020 40000
## 51 10:55:24 10 Aug 2020 40000
## 52 10:57:25 10 Aug 2020 40000
## 53 10:57:48 10 Aug 2020 40000
## 54 10:57:16 10 Aug 2020 40000
## 55 10:59:26 10 Aug 2020 40000
## 56 11:01:55 10 Aug 2020 40000
## 57 11:03:40 10 Aug 2020 40000
## 58 11:04:06 10 Aug 2020 40000
## 59 11:03:27 10 Aug 2020 40000
## 60 11:05:57 10 Aug 2020 40000
## 61 11:08:25 10 Aug 2020 40000
## 62 11:09:55 10 Aug 2020 40000
## 63 11:10:24 10 Aug 2020 40000
## 64 11:09:37 10 Aug 2020 40000
## 65 11:12:25 10 Aug 2020 40000
## 66 11:14:55 10 Aug 2020 40000
## 67 11:16:09 10 Aug 2020 40000
## 68 11:16:41 10 Aug 2020 40000
## 69 11:15:47 10 Aug 2020 40000
## 70 11:18:56 10 Aug 2020 40000
## 71 11:21:24 10 Aug 2020 40000
## 72 11:45:11 10 Aug 2020 40000
## 73 11:46:38 10 Aug 2020 40000
## 74 11:47:02 10 Aug 2020 40000
## 75 11:25:22 10 Aug 2020 40000
## 76 11:27:55 10 Aug 2020 40000
## 77 11:51:25 10 Aug 2020 40000
## 78 11:52:52 10 Aug 2020 40000
## 79 11:22:22 10 Aug 2020 40000
## 80 11:31:50 10 Aug 2020 40000
## 81 11:34:24 10 Aug 2020 40000
## 82 11:57:35 10 Aug 2020 40000
## 83 11:59:04 10 Aug 2020 40000
## 84 11:28:26 10 Aug 2020 40000
## 85 11:47:23 10 Aug 2020 40000
## 86 11:40:55 10 Aug 2020 40000
## 87 12:03:40 10 Aug 2020 40000
## 88 11:24:29 10 Aug 2020 40000
## 89 11:34:32 10 Aug 2020 40000
## 90 11:53:49 10 Aug 2020 40000Here is a subset of the data available in the above mentioned link.
Poll <- read.csv('https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-general-data/presidential_national_toplines_2020.csv')
retval <- subset(Poll, ev_inc_hi>="341")
print(retval)## cycle branch model modeldate candidate_inc candidate_chal
## 24 2020 President polls-plus 8/6/2020 Trump Biden
## 25 2020 President polls-plus 8/5/2020 Trump Biden
## candidate_3rd ecwin_inc ecwin_chal ecwin_3rd ec_nomajority popwin_inc
## 24 NA 0.293200 0.703325 NA 0.003475 0.199275
## 25 NA 0.297725 0.698925 NA 0.003350 0.202450
## popwin_chal popwin_3rd ev_inc ev_chal ev_3rd ev_inc_hi ev_chal_hi
## 24 0.800725 NA 216.8208 321.1793 NA 341 433
## 25 0.797550 NA 217.5150 320.4850 NA 341 433
## ev_3rd_hi ev_inc_lo ev_chal_lo ev_3rd_lo national_voteshare_inc
## 24 NA 105 197 NA 46.28619
## 25 NA 105 197 NA 46.31205
## national_voteshare_chal national_voteshare_3rd nat_voteshare_other
## 24 52.39062 NA 1.323194
## 25 52.36253 NA 1.325420
## national_voteshare_inc_hi national_voteshare_chal_hi
## 24 51.04249 57.13195
## 25 51.07544 57.09853
## national_voteshare_3rd_hi nat_voteshare_other_hi national_voteshare_inc_lo
## 24 NA 2.040946 41.55771
## 25 NA 2.043509 41.55804
## national_voteshare_chal_lo national_voteshare_3rd_lo nat_voteshare_other_lo
## 24 47.63836 NA 0.6809334
## 25 47.58785 NA 0.6848398
## timestamp simulations
## 24 10:19:52 10 Aug 2020 40000
## 25 10:19:56 10 Aug 2020 40000From the data collected we can conclude that Biden has more chances of winning when compared to Trump. Trump’s chance of winning is 30 in 100 whereas Biden’s chance of winning is 69 in 100