Prediction Updating

Change in prediction (updating) is plotted against previous prediction error:

\[Prediction_t - Prediction_{t-1} \text{ vs } PE_{t-1}\]

Multilevel model Summary

## Linear mixed model fit by REML. t-tests use Satterthwaite's method [
## lmerModLmerTest]
## Formula: pred_delta ~ PE_lag1 + (1 + PE_lag1 | id)
##    Data: df
## 
## REML criterion at convergence: 11480.4
## 
## Scaled residuals: 
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -5.3640 -0.4760 -0.0148  0.5107  5.2881 
## 
## Random effects:
##  Groups   Name        Variance Std.Dev. Corr 
##  id       (Intercept)   0.1942  0.4407       
##           PE_lag1       0.0467  0.2161  -1.00
##  Residual             194.4667 13.9451       
## Number of obs: 1407, groups:  id, 519
## 
## Fixed effects:
##              Estimate Std. Error        df t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept) 1.348e+00  3.847e-01 1.365e+03   3.503 0.000474 ***
## PE_lag1     3.626e-01  2.784e-02 3.992e+02  13.027  < 2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Correlation of Fixed Effects:
##         (Intr)
## PE_lag1 -0.096
## convergence code: 0
## boundary (singular) fit: see ?isSingular

Raw data with regression line