Hanover Special Report #15
Compensation Study - UK Non Life Qualified Actuaries
Michael Stefan
Last update: Sep 22, 2020
Introduction
This is Hanover’s third annual salary survey for non life actuaries. I am grateful, as always, to all respondents as well as the dozen or so reviewers who have provided excellent feedback over the years.
The project grew out of a desire to have a more granular handle on pay for actuaries in the UK non-life market. It has since expanded to other areas such as exposure management. Pay (and in particular pay equality) has grown in importance over the last decade and whilst this survey does not claim to have all the answers, I hope it at least sheds some light on a very opaque area.
As in previous years, we have only surveyed UK GI Fellows. By “Fellows” we mean anyone who is a Fellow of the UK Institute and Faculty of Actuaries, as well as a UK-based Fellow of a major, exam based actuarial system such as the US (FCAS) or Australia (FIAA). We have not included Fellows of European-based actuarial systems unless they are also an FIA.
The set of questions has been updated to take into account feedback received last year. We have actually removed one of the questions (the year of fellowship) as we found the number of years experience correlated very strongly with the qualification year and was thus redundant.
Whilst total pay is important, it is by no means the only factors that affects recruitment and retention; work/life balance, company culture, team and departmental dynamics, relationship with supervisors etc all impact on whether someone joins or leaves. The covid-19 crisis has also completely changed work-life dynamics; working from home has rendered “distance” meaningless and it will be extremely interesting to see what effect this has on salaries and pay in 2021.
Uses
I foresee three types of uses for this salary survey:
- As an individual contributor, you can benchmark your own salary against the market, either to ensure you are “on track” or perhaps when evaluating a job offer you have received
- As a leader of actuaries, you can benchmark your staff against the wider market, or perhaps use it when evaluating the level of money you’d like to offer to people you are interviewing
- As a HR/compensation professional, you can use this survey to benchmark all your actuarial staff and also when it comes to putting together job offers
This guide should NOT be used to benchmark pay for non-Fellows, ie actuarial students, nearly qualified actuaries, Associates or those “qualified by experience”. I was recently sent another firm’s salary survey and noticed they freely mixed figures for both students and Fellows, a questionable practice at best.
I will usually provide both average pay (usually referred to as mean) although I prefer to use median pay. Every compensation study I have completed has included a small number of outliers that unduly influence average pay. Median pay, on the other hand, is much more robust against outliers.
Content
The compensation study is meant as as a reference guide, meaning you do not need to read the whole document from start to finish. The report is structured as follows:
- The first section contains a number of tables, focusing primarily on total earnings (ie P60 + LTIPs); some of the slides also have commentary to clarify the findings
- The second section (Appendix 1) contains some additional slides with information on P60 earnings only
- The third section (Appendix 2) contains some technical material that is only going to interest actuaries (some notes on a linear regression model to predict total earnings)
Last but not least, this guide is best read on a desktop, or perhaps a larger tablet.
What’s new for 2020
For 2020, the focus is on simplicity and readability. The aim is to have a salary survey that can be understood by any insurance executive - a HR manager, a CFO and of course a Chief Actuary.
For this year, I have changed the way I analyse the data. In previous years I used a combination of Excel, Tableau, PowerPoint, Google Sheets and Paint. This year I have transitioned to the “R” programming language, using an integrated workflow called RMarkdown. The details of how Rmarkdown works are not important, however, the advantages are:
- Output can be presented in a number of ways, including a pdf or an online, web hosted version
- Text, data and analysis are integrated
- Output is dynamic and adjusts if new data comes in; for example, if extra responses are gathered, all summary statistics such as averages are updated automatically
- Future editions can be updated as code can be copied and pasted with minimum extra work; for example, the extra code required to convert this web presentation to a pdf is about 2 lines
In another break with previous editions, I have chosen to host this presentation online rather than as a pdf. The advantage is that one perma-link will always lead to the presentation, and any changes can be incorporated anytime. As such, if you are reading this online, you are reading the most up to date version.
I also need your help! If you have filled out this year’s survey already, thank you. If you haven’t, I would urge you to complete it; here’s the link. The average completion time this year was 4 mins 20 seconds, and by completing it you are helping to bring more clarity to a very opaque area. I am particularly keen to get more responses from women, as it will help to better quantify the gender pay gap.
Terminology
- All figures are for the financial year 6th of Apr 2019 to 5th of Apr 2020.
- “P60” refers to the P60 earnings; for the vast majority, it comprises of base, allowances, cash bonus, deductions for pension contributions etc
- “LTIPs” refers to vested long term incentives
- “Earnings” refers to P60 + LTIPs, adjusted for 100% full time equivalent pay; for example, if a respondent stated that they earned a P60 of £80k working 80% (4 days a week), with zero LTIPs, their full time equivalent pay is £100k
- Anyone with more than 25 years experience has had their years of experience set to 25 (this is to prevent potential identification of older actuaries)
- Anyone with less than 5 years experience has had their years of experience set to 5 years (it is possible to be a Fellow with less than 5 years experience but very rare)
- “LLM” refers to the Lloyds and London Market
- “PLSME” refers to the personal and small commercial lines market
- “Other” clusters together responses from the regulator, ILS, medical indemnity and one response where the sector wasn’t stated
Earnings
This section will focus on total earnings (ie P60 + LTIPs), adjusted for 100% full time equivalent pay. I will cover the following:
- Total earnings by sector
- Total earnings by gender
- Total earnings by number of years experience
- Cost Ratio by gender and sector
- Total earnings for SMF (Senior Manager Function) roles
- Total earnings for Chief Actuaries
Earnings are affected by many factors, and considering sector, gender, years experience etc individually in turn is the simplest way to identify any glaring gaps.
However, for more nuanced analysis, a higher level of statistical analysis is required. In Appendix 2 I will cover two additional types of analysis: a linear regression and a regression tree. Both are fairly straightforward to explain to non-specialists, and I am particularly keen on regression trees as they capture non-linearities in an intuitive, graphical way.
The overall average for all respondents is £200,605 with a standard deviation of £130,885.
Total earnings by sector
|
Sector
|
Mean
|
Minimum
|
Median
|
Top Quartile
|
Maximum
|
Avg Yrs Exp
|
Respondents
|
|
Consultancy
|
£ 215,872
|
£ 87,500
|
£ 169,126
|
£ 250,000
|
£ 830,000
|
15
|
17
|
|
Intermediary
|
£ 160,543
|
£ 83,000
|
£ 130,000
|
£ 153,200
|
£ 359,500
|
11
|
11
|
|
LLM
|
£ 213,554
|
£ 80,000
|
£ 172,550
|
£ 270,000
|
£ 815,000
|
14
|
85
|
|
Other
|
£ 194,184
|
£ 130,000
|
£ 142,000
|
£ 247,091
|
£ 340,000
|
16
|
6
|
|
PLSME
|
£ 176,132
|
£ 70,000
|
£ 145,500
|
£ 211,915
|
£ 518,667
|
16
|
36
|
Comments:
- “Others” is heavily skewed by one individual at an ILS fund (in other words, their high pay “pulls up” the summary statistics)
- “Intermediary” responses are somewhat younger (in terms of the average number of years of experience per respondent), compared to the other sections
- “Consultancy” responses need to be treated carefully; our survey has a higher percentage of senior managers and directors (as a proportion of “Consultancy” responses) compared to the typical pyramidal structure of a consultancy (with lots of juniors and relatively few seniors)
- Later in the report I will talk about a concept I call “Cost Ratio”, that is, the cost per year of experience
Total earnings by gender
All respondents:
|
Gender
|
Mean
|
Minimum
|
Median
|
Top Quartile
|
Maximum
|
Avg Yrs Exp
|
Respondents
|
|
Female
|
£ 144,876
|
£ 73,000
|
£ 130,000
|
£ 150,000
|
£ 330,000
|
12
|
37
|
|
Male
|
£ 218,079
|
£ 70,000
|
£ 170,000
|
£ 279,864
|
£ 830,000
|
15
|
118
|
Respondents with 10 years experience or less:
|
Gender
|
Mean
|
Minimum
|
Median
|
Top Quartile
|
Maximum
|
Avg Yrs Exp
|
Median Yrs Exp
|
Respondents
|
|
Female
|
£ 97,576
|
£ 73,000
|
£ 99,000
|
£ 110,000
|
£ 136,400
|
7
|
7
|
13
|
|
Male
|
£ 129,458
|
£ 77,227
|
£ 110,650
|
£ 135,000
|
£ 382,000
|
8
|
8
|
36
|
Comments: Sadly the gender pay gap is very much present; male and female earnings (recall, they are adjusted to full time equivalent pay) diverge even at the earlier stages of their careers. Granted, the average number of years experience for female respondents is less than men, but even so, there is a difference. We will examine the gender pay gap in subsequent slides.
Total Earnings by years experience
Please note that for very experienced actuaries (20 years plus), the low number of responses in some cases suggest some caution.
|
Years
|
Mean
|
Minimum
|
Median
|
Top Quartile
|
Maximum
|
Respondents
|
|
5
|
£ 85,742
|
£ 80,000
|
£ 83,000
|
£ 90,000
|
£ 94,711
|
5
|
|
6
|
£ 115,430
|
£ 73,000
|
£ 103,000
|
£ 128,200
|
£ 220,000
|
7
|
|
7
|
£ 100,883
|
£ 80,000
|
£ 97,000
|
£ 110,000
|
£ 131,475
|
9
|
|
8
|
£ 112,009
|
£ 73,000
|
£ 107,630
|
£ 125,000
|
£ 155,000
|
9
|
|
9
|
£ 121,833
|
£ 92,000
|
£ 115,000
|
£ 124,000
|
£ 192,000
|
9
|
|
10
|
£ 167,970
|
£ 77,227
|
£ 139,750
|
£ 171,694
|
£ 382,000
|
10
|
|
11
|
£ 153,895
|
£ 98,000
|
£ 132,000
|
£ 210,000
|
£ 235,850
|
9
|
|
12
|
£ 172,735
|
£ 100,000
|
£ 131,648
|
£ 180,000
|
£ 440,000
|
13
|
|
13
|
£ 190,280
|
£ 100,000
|
£ 152,926
|
£ 195,448
|
£ 433,825
|
6
|
|
14
|
£ 259,950
|
£ 142,087
|
£ 250,000
|
£ 340,000
|
£ 455,817
|
9
|
|
15
|
£ 190,348
|
£ 120,000
|
£ 177,500
|
£ 227,364
|
£ 280,000
|
8
|
|
16
|
£ 196,337
|
£ 70,000
|
£ 203,950
|
£ 217,000
|
£ 369,000
|
9
|
|
17
|
£ 306,014
|
£ 141,000
|
£ 290,000
|
£ 402,250
|
£ 530,000
|
7
|
|
18
|
£ 229,353
|
£ 126,200
|
£ 255,000
|
£ 300,000
|
£ 330,000
|
5
|
|
19
|
£ 259,595
|
£ 85,000
|
£ 266,179
|
£ 345,000
|
£ 425,210
|
6
|
|
21
|
£ 315,700
|
£ 160,000
|
£ 270,000
|
£ 308,000
|
£ 660,498
|
5
|
|
22
|
£ 240,000
|
£ 130,000
|
£ 240,000
|
£ 295,000
|
£ 350,000
|
2
|
|
23
|
£ 623,001
|
£ 224,003
|
£ 815,000
|
£ 822,500
|
£ 830,000
|
3
|
|
24
|
£ 181,735
|
£ 118,470
|
£ 181,735
|
£ 213,368
|
£ 245,000
|
2
|
|
25
|
£ 255,715
|
£ 100,000
|
£ 216,408
|
£ 325,500
|
£ 518,667
|
22
|
Total Earnings by sector for new(ish) Fellows
The table below provides a comparison of total earnings for FIAs with 10 years experience or less. Assuming a mean qualification time of 5 years (+/- 2 years), this would suggest around 5 years post qualification experience (+/- 2 years).
|
Sector
|
Mean
|
Minimum
|
Median
|
Top Quartile
|
Maximum
|
Avg Yrs Exp
|
Median Yrs Exp
|
Respondents
|
|
Consultancy
|
£ 124,488
|
£ 87,500
|
£ 104,150
|
£ 155,170
|
£ 192,000
|
8
|
8
|
6
|
|
Intermediary
|
£ 118,146
|
£ 83,000
|
£ 125,000
|
£ 131,106
|
£ 136,400
|
7
|
6
|
6
|
|
LLM
|
£ 131,581
|
£ 80,000
|
£ 107,630
|
£ 124,500
|
£ 382,000
|
8
|
8
|
27
|
|
Other
|
£ 150,000
|
£ 150,000
|
£ 150,000
|
£ 150,000
|
£ 150,000
|
9
|
9
|
1
|
|
PLSME
|
£ 85,608
|
£ 73,000
|
£ 80,000
|
£ 95,136
|
£ 116,500
|
8
|
8
|
9
|
Please note again that median and mean years of experience for the respondents differ slightly.
Cost Ratio by gender
Recall that we define the “Cost Ratio” as the ratio of Total Pay (adjusted for 100% FTE) divided by the number of years experience that individual has. For the cost ratio calculations, we have used the original number of years experience provided by respondents.
- The average “cost ratio” for all respondents is £ 14,579
- The average “cost ratio” for all male respondents is £ 15,022
- The average “cost ratio” for all female respondents is £ 13,167
We have a high number of male respondents who are either Chief Actuary PC holders and/or hold an SMF position. This could “bias” our results as effectively we would be mixing “leaders” with “doers”. Excluding all respondents with a Chief Actuary PC or who hold an SMF position, we have an “apples for apples” comparison for male vs female “doers”. In this case we have a male cost ratio of £ 14,613 and a female cost ratio of £ 12,767.
Cost Ratio by gender (2)
One argument for the disparity is that our results contain a number of very senior (all male) respondents in consulting, likely director or partner level. We can exclude them and only focus on the “in-house” actuaries at underwriting organisations. Our results are as follows:
The average “cost ratio” for all male respondents in the Lloyds and London Market is £ 15,969
The average “cost ratio” for all female respondents in the Lloyds and London Market is £ 11,141
The average “cost ratio” for all male respondents in the PL/SME market is £ 11,562
The average “cost ratio” for all female respondents in the PL/SME market is £ 12,637
Conclusion 1: The numbers show that the earnings are highest for London Market males and not consultants, since removing the consultants increased the average cost ratio for males but reduces the average cost ratio for females.
Conclusion 2: The real disparity between male and female earnings are in the Lloyds and London Market. There, the average female “doer” earns 70% of what a male “doer” earns. Within personal personal lines and the SME market, the average female “doer” earns 109% of what a male “doer” earns. In other words, women actually earn more in the PL & SME market.
SMF Earnings
The following table contains a summary of earnings for those who declared they hold a controlled function (more recently referred as a “Senior Management Function” by the PRA). Our survey did not ask respondents to identify the exact Senior Management Function role they held, so we don’t know whether the individual was the SMF20 Chief Actuary, SMF4 CRO, SMF22 CUO etc. It is also possible that some held multiple SMF roles.
|
SMF Role
|
Mean
|
Minimum
|
Median
|
Top Quartile
|
Maximum
|
Respondents
|
|
SMF Role
|
£ 331,511
|
£ 100,000
|
£ 290,000
|
£ 407,605
|
£ 815,000
|
19
|
|
The rest
|
£ 182,316
|
£ 70,000
|
£ 142,544
|
£ 213,165
|
£ 830,000
|
136
|
Another way to look at the data is to segment those who hold either type of Chief Actuary PC and also held an SMF position (these are the respondents that the PRA would recognize as the “Chief Actuary”). In other words, “The Rest” in the table below are the FIAs who hold a Chief Actuary PC but are NOT undertaking an SMF role.
|
SMF Role
|
Mean
|
Minimum
|
Median
|
Top Quartile
|
Maximum
|
Respondents
|
|
SMF Role
|
£ 309,004
|
£ 100,000
|
£ 285,000
|
£ 427,364
|
£ 530,000
|
12
|
|
The rest
|
£ 252,773
|
£ 134,000
|
£ 211,276
|
£ 309,750
|
£ 660,498
|
14
|
Chief Actuary Earnings
The first table covers all holders of a Chief Actuary Practicing Certificate (“PC”), the second and third segment by whether the individual holds a “with Lloyds” or “without Lloyds” PC.
|
Chief Actuary
|
Mean
|
Minimum
|
Median
|
Top Quartile
|
Maximum
|
Respondents
|
|
All Chief Actuaries with PC
|
£ 278,726
|
£ 100,000
|
£ 234,298
|
£ 376,000
|
£ 660,498
|
26
|
|
The rest
|
£ 184,860
|
£ 70,000
|
£ 141,000
|
£ 217,660
|
£ 830,000
|
129
|
|
Chief Actuary, Lloyds
|
Mean
|
Minimum
|
Median
|
Top Quartile
|
Maximum
|
Respondents
|
|
Chief Actuary, with Lloyds
|
£ 339,770
|
£ 180,000
|
£ 310,000
|
£ 427,364
|
£ 660,498
|
16
|
|
The rest
|
£ 184,586
|
£ 70,000
|
£ 143,000
|
£ 216,000
|
£ 830,000
|
139
|
|
Chief Actuary, non-Lloyds
|
Mean
|
Minimum
|
Median
|
Top Quartile
|
Maximum
|
Respondents
|
|
Chief Actuary, non-Lloyds
|
£ 181,055
|
£ 100,000
|
£ 154,500
|
£ 200,000
|
£ 390,000
|
10
|
|
The rest
|
£ 201,953
|
£ 70,000
|
£ 152,000
|
£ 250,000
|
£ 830,000
|
145
|
As an aside, I am, as ever, exceptionally grateful that 26 Chief Actuary PC holders have elected to complete the survey. It is a testament to the level of engagement we have with the actuarial community.
Total Earnings by Gender and Staff Managed

There is a clear upward trend between the size of team managed and total earnings. It is worth noting that we have truncated the 5 largest teams in the market, as showing these on there risks identifying the individuals involved. If you are running a team of > 45 staff, please feel free to contact me directly for a confidential discussion.
Newly qualified fellow earnings
|
Sector
|
Mean
|
Minimum
|
Median
|
Top Quartile
|
Maximum
|
Respondents
|
|
Consultancy
|
£ 88,750
|
£ 87,500
|
£ 88,750
|
£ 89,375
|
£ 90,000
|
2
|
|
Intermediary
|
£ 117,719
|
£ 83,000
|
£ 125,738
|
£ 132,706
|
£ 136,400
|
4
|
|
LLM
|
£ 107,971
|
£ 80,000
|
£ 97,000
|
£ 106,500
|
£ 220,000
|
11
|
|
PLSME
|
£ 77,153
|
£ 73,000
|
£ 77,806
|
£ 80,000
|
£ 80,000
|
4
|
Clients often ask about salaries (or earnings) for newly qualified actuaries. Given the average qualification time is 5 years (+/- 2 years), we have selected all respondents with 7 years of experience or less. Given the low number of responses, I feel somewhat wary of over generalising but it does seem like £80,000 is the MINIMUM. Recall, this is a P60 so it will be inclusive of any (presumably small at this level) cash bonus.
I personally feel median salaries are a better indicator of “where the market is at”. In this case, total earnings are in the region of £90,000 - £100,000.
Also please recall that the overall average for all respondents is £200,605.
Conclusion
First of all, thank you for taking the time to read this report.
I concluded last year’s survey with a discussion of flexibility and work life balance as a differentiator. Little did I think that I would be writing the next year’s follow up against the backdrop of virtually 100% remote working. To some extent it is too early to really assess the pandemic’s long term impact on earnings, although I would like to briefly cover two themes.
The first theme is the general increase in supply of actuaries. Since 2007, approximately 2,200 people have passed SA3, the general insurance fellowship exam. Assuming (conservatively) that 60% of those are in the UK, and that 90% of those are now Fellows, we are still looking at an increase of around 100 new GI fellows per year in the UK. Solvency II (and more recently data science) has occupied the bulk of these new Fellows, but I do wonder whether the constant increase is sustainable for the long term. That being said, very few of my clients are complaining about having “too much slack” - if anything, teams seem to be as busy as they’ve always been. Perhaps (to paraphrase Parkinson’s law), “work expands so as to fill the team available for its completion.” In some ways, the massive increases in data availability over the last decade has helped maintain actuarial employment at basically full levels, especially in areas like personal lines where the amount of data ingested by insurers has taken off almost exponentially. Whether or not it will continue remains to be seen, but one trend that I think will definitely continue is the inflow of newly qualified GI actuaries.
I wonder whether many of these will end up in what could be termed “Data Science Actuary” roles. The UK in particular has had a demarcation of actuarial roles – you are either a “life” actuary or a “GI” actuary or maybe even a “healthcare” actuary. If one were to put these areas together (perhaps under the banner of “consumer insurance”) it is entirely feasible that a new breed of actuary could emerge, one versed in data science methodologies, programming and statistics, able to work on consumer-related analytics across multiple fields of “insurance”. On the commercial side, the Internet of Things could even lead to another deluge of sensor data and anecdotally, a number of Lloyds managing agents have started to recruit “Portfolio Manager” roles. These roles seek to combine traditional actuarial expertise (eg providing judgment into the profitability of deals) with non traditional work (advising on new data sources, being a key member of reinsurance purchasing decisions, evaluating commercial opportunities including M&As). The launch of three follow only (“algorithmic”) syndicates in the summer of 2020 can only be considered good news. I’m certainly very positive about the profession’s long term future, though perhaps without the rapid earnings progression of the Solvency II boom.
About me

I have spent the last 15 years recruiting for senior actuarial, catastrophe modelling and analytical positions in the UK, and abroad (principally the Americas and Bermuda). My client base ranges from consumer insurance, commercial lines and Lloyds of London to more unusual operations involved in insurance linked securities, private equity and broking. I also research and write virtually all of our research reports, including compensation surveys.
Prior to joining Hanover Search in 2010, I spent 6 years working as lead consultant for the insurance and financial services division of Hays, a global FTSE-250 listed recruitment group.
Prior to university I spent 2 years working in sales for Churchill Insurance, one of the legacy companies of Direct Line Group.
I have a degree in Economics and Mathematics from York University and have completed a number of development courses, including a Strategy and Finance module with INSEAD and a psychometrics certificate with Cambridge University. In the summer of 2020 I completed two R-based courses with Essex University’s Summer School in Quantitative Social Science.
I have 2 young children under 5 so I don’t really have any spare time, but when I get a moment, I usually spend it reading.
Get in touch
Other than my research work (eg salary surveys), I am an active member of Hanover’s search and selection team. I have spent the last 15 years recruiting actuaries for the UK and Anglo-America (re) insurance markets. My client base ranges from consumer insurance, commercial lines and Lloyds of London to more unusual operations involved in insurance linked securities, private equity, captives and broking. I have significant experience of completing difficult searches, especially where the “candidate pool” is very small.
My recruiting philosophy can be summarised as very simply:
Contrary to what most recruitment firms claim, the world does not revolve around “superstars”; a hard working, knowledgeable, experienced actuary who gets on with people is the kind of employee any company would be happy to have
I look to provide enormous amounts of information to candidates for the searches that I run, and I’ve lost count of the number of times people have said “This is the best information pack I’ve ever seen”. I’ve also never had a candidate complain that I sent them too much information.
I am always happy to:
- discuss the results and methodology of this survey
- help your organisation with recruiting at the £100k+ base salary level
- provide informal benchmarking advice on salaries
For all queries, please email me: michael.stefan@hanoversearch.com
Appendix
I have always been very interested in being able to predict (to a reasonable degree of accuracy) what someone’s total earnings are. I have fielded numerous questions from both HR and actuarial leaders over the years, usually in relation to benchmarking a role they want to recruit for (and sometimes benchmarking themselves or their own team members). When conducting a search, it’s also useful for me to estimate what someone might be on as it allows me to do a “package sense check” in my own mind before approaching them. As such, I attempt a linear regression model every year, with the key caveat that I want a model that’s reasonably predictive whilst being as parsimonious as possible.
The following slide shows the model summary using two predictors - the number of years experience and the number of staff managed.
The slide after that contains the output from a regression tree. There are many methodologies for constructing regression trees but one of the oldest is known as the classification and regression tree (CART) approach developed by Breiman et al. (1984). Basic regression trees partition a data set into smaller subgroups and then fit a simple constant for each observation in the subgroup. The partitioning is achieved by successive binary partitions (aka recursive partitioning, implemented in R using the function rpart) based on the different predictors. The constant to predict is based on the average response values for all observations that fall in that subgroup.
As with other nonparametric techniques, CART does not require any assumptions for the underlying distribution. Another advantage is that the graphical output is very interpretable.
Linear Regression
For me the simplest possible model is one that includes both years experience and number of staff managed. The model summary is shown to below. I have been able to increase the adjusted R-squared to 0.49 by experimenting with various combinations of interaction terms and higher level polynomials. However, I am concerned by both over-fitting and explainability and would rather stick with something simple and intuitive that still explains a great deal of variation. The model below also has the added benefit that both the Years and Staff terms are statistically significant.
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Observations
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155
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Dependent variable
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Total
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Type
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OLS linear regression
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F(2,152)
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56.64
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R²
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0.43
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Adj. R²
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0.42
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Est.
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S.E.
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t val.
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p
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(Intercept)
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70080.90
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20596.78
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3.40
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0.00
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Years
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6646.09
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1399.48
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4.75
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0.00
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Staff
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4017.20
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571.52
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7.03
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0.00
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Standard errors: OLS
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Decision Trees
In the chart below, “Cert.CAL”, is a binary variable that is equal to 1 if the individual holds a “Chief Actuary, with Lloyds” PC and 0 otherwise. “Staff” is number of staff managed and “Years” is number of years experience. I have chosen the minimum number of splits per node to be 10 (the default in rpart is 20 but I lowered it as I don’t think ~150 responses is that much data to work with). A higher number of splits can result in a smaller tree with fewer rules, and consequently different numerical predictions.

One disadvantage of CART is that rules can be unstable if new information is added (eg if we have say an extra 10 responses). A few changes in the training dataset can create a completely different tree. This is because each split depends on the parent split. And if a different feature is selected as the first split feature, the entire tree structure changes.
Other reports
Since early 2018, I have authored a number of reports/briefs and a selection is listed below. All are available to download directly from my Box folder (right click, save as, no registration needed).
-Demographic Analysis of Actuarial Teams in the London Market
-Demographic Analysis of Cat Modelling Teams in the London Market
-Compensation Report 2018, UK General Insurance Actuaries
-Compensation Report 2018, Catastrophe & Exposure Modellers
-Compensation Report 2018, Risk Compliance and Governance
-2019 Market Conditions for Actuarial, Catastrophe and Data Science
-Salary Survey 2018, SIMF4 CROs
-AI & ML Expertise in the major insurance Companies
-Compensation Report 2019, UK General Insurance Actuaries
-Compensation Report 2019, Catastrophe Modelling & Exposure Management
I also maintain an up to date online Tableau viz of all “The Actuary” print magazine job ads in the GI sector (whether qualified or not). Whilst I won’t be developing the viz any further, I update the underlying data on a monthly basis when “The Actuary” arrives and you can view it here.
Last but not least, if you recruit or manage cat modellers, you will want to see my 2020 Cat Modelling Salary Survey
