Description

This is an excercise to test a montecarlo simulation to estimate the STOOIP of a field, using the MonteCarlo package.
We will perform simulations increasing the number of runs drawing data from 2 datasets, both with the same distributions for each parameter, however with different number of samples:

* Dataset 1 will have 100 samples for each parameter * Dataset 2 will have 1E6 samples for each parameter

Distributions used

Area

The area has been set as an uniform distribution between 5 and 12 km2.

Thickness

Thickness is defined as a uniform distribution between 8 and 17 meters

Porosity

Porosity distribution is normal with a mean of 0.2 and 0.03 standard deviation.

Water saturation

Water saturation distribution is normal with a mean of 0.22 and 0.04 standard deviation.

Bo

Bo distribution is normal with a mean of 1.07 and 0.02 standard deviation.

Montecarlo simulations

The STOOIP is estimated in bbls with the following formula:

\[ STOOIP = Area * Thickness * Porosity * ( 1 - Sw ) / Bo \]

Blue lines represent p10 and p90 and the red line the p50.

100 simulations

1,000 simulations

10,000 simulations

100,000 simulations

1,000,000 simulations