Here is a review of Marquette Law School polling from August 2019 to August 2020 in Wisconsin. All polls are state-wide samples of registered voters, with about 800 respondents per poll (1000 in Feb.) and a margin of error of about +/- 4 percentage points. Details of each survey and full methodology statement are available at https://law.marquette.edu/poll/category/results-and-data/
This analysis looks at the composition of “Biden Republicans”, those you identify as Republicans or independents who lean Republican, but say they will vote for Joe Biden rather than Donald Trump. While cases are limited we also look at Trump Democrats.
There is strong party loyalty on both sides in Wisconsin. Table 1 shows vote by party identification among registered voters interviewed between August 2019 and August 2020.
| zpid5 | Biden | Trump | Neither | Don’t know | Refused |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rep | 1.8 | 26.5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| Lean Rep | 2.0 | 12.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| Ind | 3.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| Lean Dem | 13.8 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| Dem | 26.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Other/None | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
There are, in fact, very few Republican or independents who lean Republican who have said they plan to vote for Biden, a total of 313 out of 8230, or 3.8 percent of all registered voters. The margin of error for this subsample is +/- 6.7 percentage points.
There are even fewer Trump Democrats, just 129 of 8230 or 1.6 percent of all registered voters.
While the sample size is small it is sufficiently interesting to get a profile of these Biden Republicans and compare them with the composition of all Republicans and independents who lean Republican. This is done in Table 2, showing the composition of each group.
| Group | Of Biden Reps | Of all Reps | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 28 | 53 | -25 |
| Very conservative | 4 | 17 | -13 |
| White, male, non-college | 20 | 32 | -12 |
| Follow politics: most of the time | 55 | 67 | -12 |
| Subjective Rural | 32 | 43 | -11 |
| High school | 23 | 30 | -7 |
| Married | 59 | 66 | -7 |
| Rest of MKE | 31 | 37 | -6 |
| Male | 49 | 55 | -6 |
| 50-59 | 22 | 28 | -6 |
| Attend weekly or more | 34 | 39 | -5 |
| Rest of state | 20 | 24 | -4 |
| Exurbs and large towns | 19 | 22 | -3 |
| 60-69 | 14 | 17 | -3 |
| White | 87 | 90 | -3 |
| Associates | 13 | 16 | -3 |
| 40-49 | 12 | 14 | -2 |
| 70+ | 14 | 16 | -2 |
| Born again | 25 | 27 | -2 |
| Attend few/year | 17 | 19 | -2 |
| Union member | 4 | 6 | -2 |
| Isolated rural | 9 | 10 | -1 |
| Some college | 19 | 20 | -1 |
| Farmer | 10 | 11 | -1 |
| Suburban core | 34 | 34 | 0 |
| Post-BA | 9 | 9 | 0 |
| Catholic | 32 | 32 | 0 |
| Non-union household | 87 | 87 | 0 |
| Small town | 12 | 11 | 1 |
| Hispanic | 4 | 3 | 1 |
| Other race | 5 | 4 | 1 |
| White, female, non-college | 28 | 27 | 1 |
| Other religion | 7 | 6 | 1 |
| Attend seldom | 16 | 15 | 1 |
| Very liberal | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Non-farm | 90 | 89 | 1 |
| Not HS | 4 | 2 | 2 |
| Mainline | 26 | 24 | 2 |
| No religion | 10 | 8 | 2 |
| MKE City | 7 | 4 | 3 |
| GB/A | 25 | 22 | 3 |
| Black | 4 | 1 | 3 |
| Widow/Div/Sep | 24 | 21 | 3 |
| Attend monthly | 19 | 16 | 3 |
| Union household | 8 | 5 | 3 |
| Follow politics: now and then | 10 | 7 | 3 |
| Follow politics: hardly at all | 7 | 4 | 3 |
| msn | 17 | 13 | 4 |
| Principal city | 27 | 23 | 4 |
| White, female, college | 17 | 13 | 4 |
| Non-white | 14 | 10 | 4 |
| Attend never | 14 | 10 | 4 |
| Liberal | 6 | 2 | 4 |
| Subjective Suburban | 40 | 35 | 5 |
| Never Married | 17 | 12 | 5 |
| Subjectuve Urban | 27 | 21 | 6 |
| Female | 51 | 45 | 6 |
| 18-29 | 17 | 11 | 6 |
| White, male, college | 22 | 16 | 6 |
| Follow politics: some of the time | 28 | 21 | 7 |
| 30-39 | 21 | 13 | 8 |
| Bachelors | 32 | 24 | 8 |
| Moderate | 58 | 25 | 33 |
Here the estimates are much more tenuous with only 129 Trump voters who are Democrats or independents who lean Democratic. The margin of error for this subsample is +/- 10.7 percentage points so the results are at best suggestive rather than precise.
Table 3 shows the composition of Trump Democrats compared to all Democrats (including thos who lean Democratic) in Wisconsin polling from August 2019-August 2020, among registered voters.
| Group | Of Trump Dems | Of all Dems | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Follow politics: most of the time | 42 | 67 | -25 |
| Female | 41 | 62 | -21 |
| Liberal | 20 | 33 | -13 |
| White | 70 | 81 | -11 |
| White, female, non-college | 17 | 28 | -11 |
| White, female, college | 11 | 22 | -11 |
| MKE City | 4 | 12 | -8 |
| 70+ | 9 | 17 | -8 |
| Post-BA | 7 | 15 | -8 |
| Very liberal | 8 | 14 | -6 |
| 60-69 | 14 | 19 | -5 |
| Attend monthly | 8 | 13 | -5 |
| Non-union household | 77 | 82 | -5 |
| Non-farm | 89 | 94 | -5 |
| Exurbs and large towns | 12 | 16 | -4 |
| No religion | 22 | 26 | -4 |
| Attend seldom | 16 | 20 | -4 |
| Rest of MKE | 23 | 26 | -3 |
| Some college | 15 | 18 | -3 |
| Rest of state | 20 | 22 | -2 |
| Subjective Suburban | 33 | 35 | -2 |
| Union household | 4 | 6 | -2 |
| Subjectuve Urban | 32 | 33 | -1 |
| Isolated rural | 6 | 7 | -1 |
| Black | 7 | 8 | -1 |
| Bachelors | 25 | 26 | -1 |
| Never Married | 21 | 22 | -1 |
| Mainline | 25 | 26 | -1 |
| Other religion | 8 | 9 | -1 |
| Attend never | 23 | 24 | -1 |
| Principal city | 40 | 40 | 0 |
| Small town | 8 | 8 | 0 |
| 30-39 | 13 | 13 | 0 |
| Not HS | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Married | 53 | 53 | 0 |
| Very conservative | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| msn | 24 | 23 | 1 |
| Follow politics: hardly at all | 5 | 4 | 1 |
| 50-59 | 23 | 21 | 2 |
| White, male, college | 15 | 13 | 2 |
| Widow/Div/Sep | 26 | 24 | 2 |
| Hispanic | 8 | 5 | 3 |
| Born again | 15 | 12 | 3 |
| Subjective Rural | 35 | 31 | 4 |
| Suburban core | 34 | 30 | 4 |
| Associates | 16 | 12 | 4 |
| Catholic | 28 | 24 | 4 |
| Attend few/year | 24 | 20 | 4 |
| Moderate | 44 | 39 | 5 |
| Farmer | 11 | 6 | 5 |
| 18-29 | 22 | 16 | 6 |
| 40-49 | 19 | 13 | 6 |
| Attend weekly or more | 29 | 23 | 6 |
| Other race | 13 | 5 | 8 |
| Union member | 18 | 10 | 8 |
| High school | 35 | 26 | 9 |
| White, male, non-college | 26 | 17 | 9 |
| Non-white | 29 | 19 | 10 |
| Follow politics: some of the time | 34 | 22 | 12 |
| Follow politics: now and then | 19 | 7 | 12 |
| GB/A | 29 | 16 | 13 |
| Conservative | 25 | 9 | 16 |
| Male | 59 | 38 | 21 |