Recession Indicator Index (JHGDPBRINDX)

This index measures the probability that the U.S. economy was in a recession during the indicated quarter. It is based on a mathematical description of the way that recessions differ from expansions. The index corresponds to the probability (measured in percent) that the underlying true economic regime is one of recession based on the available data. Whereas the NBER business cycle dates are based on a subjective assessment of a variety of indicators that may not be released until several years after the event, this index is entirely mechanical, is based solely on currently available GDP data and is reported every quarter. Due to the possibility of data revisions and the challenges in accurately identifying the business cycle phase, the index is calculated for the quarter just preceding the most recently available GDP numbers. Once the index is calculated for that quarter, it is never subsequently revised. The value at every date was inferred using only data that were available one quarter after that date and as those data were reported at the time.

If the value of the index rises above 67% that is a historically reliable indicator that the economy has entered a recession. Once this threshold has been passed, if it falls below 33% that is a reliable indicator that the recession is over.

indicator <-fredr_series_observations(series_id = "JHGDPBRINDX",
        observation_start = as.Date("1960-01-01")) 

# plotting data
indicator %>% ggplot() + geom_line(mapping = aes(x=date,y=value), 
                              color = "red4") +
  labs(title = "Recession Indicator Index _ GDP Based", 
       subtitle = str_glue("Monthly from {min(indicator$date)} through {max(indicator$date)}"),
       x="Quaterly", y="Percent",
       caption = "Source: FRED Federal Reserve _ Illustration by @JoeLongSanDiego")+
   
    theme_economist()

Federal government current receipts:

Income receipts on assets: Interest receipts (B094RC1Q027SBEA)

indicator <-fredr_series_observations(series_id = "B094RC1Q027SBEA",
        observation_start = as.Date("2016-01-01")) 

# plotting data
indicator %>% ggplot() + geom_line(mapping = aes(x=date,y=value), 
                              color = "000066") +
  labs(title = "Federal government current receipts: Income receipts on assets: Interest receipts", 
       subtitle = str_glue("From {min(indicator$date)} through {max(indicator$date)}"),
       x="Quarterly", y="Billions of Dollars",
       caption = "Source: FRED Federal Reserve _ Illustration by @JoeLongSanDiego")+
   
    theme_economist()

indicator%>%
    hchart( type = "column",hcaes(x = date, y = value)) %>% hc_colors("steelblue") %>%
    hc_subtitle(text=str_glue("from {min(indicator$date)} through {max(indicator$date)}"), 
                     align = "center") %>%
     hc_title(text = "Federal government current receipts: Income receipts on assets: Interest receipts",
             style = list(fontWeight = "bold", fontSize = "20px"), align = "center")  %>%
   hc_credits(enabled = TRUE,text = "Source: FRED Federal Reserve  _ Illustration by @JoeLongSanDiego") %>%
   hc_yAxis(title = list(text = "Billions of Dollars")) %>%
   hc_add_theme(hc_theme_economist())
## Warning: `parse_quosure()` is deprecated as of rlang 0.2.0.
## Please use `parse_quo()` instead.
## This warning is displayed once per session.
## Warning: `group_by_()` is deprecated as of dplyr 0.7.0.
## Please use `group_by()` instead.
## See vignette('programming') for more help
## This warning is displayed once every 8 hours.
## Call `lifecycle::last_warnings()` to see where this warning was generated.
## Warning: `select_()` is deprecated as of dplyr 0.7.0.
## Please use `select()` instead.
## This warning is displayed once every 8 hours.
## Call `lifecycle::last_warnings()` to see where this warning was generated.
## Warning: `as_data_frame()` is deprecated as of tibble 2.0.0.
## Please use `as_tibble()` instead.
## The signature and semantics have changed, see `?as_tibble`.
## This warning is displayed once every 8 hours.
## Call `lifecycle::last_warnings()` to see where this warning was generated.

### Federal government current receipts: ### Income receipts on Rents and royalties (B1040C1Q027SBEA)

indicator <-fredr_series_observations(series_id = "B1040C1Q027SBEA",
        observation_start = as.Date("2016-01-01")) 

# plotting data
indicator %>% ggplot() + geom_line(mapping = aes(x=date,y=value), 
                              color = "000066") +
  labs(title = "Federal government current Income receipts on assets: Rents and royalties", 
       subtitle = str_glue("From {min(indicator$date)} through {max(indicator$date)}"),
       x="Quarterly", y="Billions of Dollars",
       caption = "Source: FRED Federal Reserve _ Illustration by @JoeLongSanDiego")+
   
    theme_economist()

indicator%>%
    hchart( type = "column",hcaes(x = date, y = value)) %>% hc_colors("steelblue") %>%
    hc_subtitle(text=str_glue("from {min(indicator$date)} through {max(indicator$date)}"), 
                     align = "center") %>%
     hc_title(text = "Federal government current Income receipts on assets: Rents and royalties",
             style = list(fontWeight = "bold", fontSize = "20px"), align = "center")  %>%
   hc_credits(enabled = TRUE,text = "Source: FRED Federal Reserve  _ Illustration by @JoeLongSanDiego") %>%
   hc_yAxis(title = list(text = "Billions of Dollars")) %>%
   hc_add_theme(hc_theme_economist())

Federal government current receipts:

Income receipts on assets: Dividends (W053RC1Q027SBEA)

indicator <-fredr_series_observations(series_id = "W053RC1Q027SBEA",
        observation_start = as.Date("2016-01-01")) 

# plotting data
indicator %>% ggplot() + geom_line(mapping = aes(x=date,y=value), 
                              color = "000066") +
  labs(title = "Federal government current Income receipts on assets: Dividents", 
       subtitle = str_glue("From {min(indicator$date)} through {max(indicator$date)}"),
       x="Quarterly", y="Billions of Dollars",
       caption = "Source: FRED Federal Reserve _ Illustration by @JoeLongSanDiego")+
   
    theme_economist()

indicator%>%
    hchart( type = "column",hcaes(x = date, y = value)) %>% hc_colors("steelblue") %>%
    hc_subtitle(text=str_glue("from {min(indicator$date)} through {max(indicator$date)}"), 
                     align = "center") %>%
     hc_title(text = "Federal government current Income receipts on assets: Dividents",
             style = list(fontWeight = "bold", fontSize = "20px"), align = "center")  %>%
   hc_credits(enabled = TRUE,text = "Source: FRED Federal Reserve  _ Illustration by @JoeLongSanDiego") %>%
   hc_yAxis(title = list(text = "Billions of Dollars")) %>%
   hc_add_theme(hc_theme_economist())

Federal government current tax receipts:

Taxes on corporate income (B075RC1Q027SBEA)

indicator <-fredr_series_observations(series_id = "B075RC1Q027SBEA",
        observation_start = as.Date("2016-01-01")) 

# plotting data
indicator %>% ggplot() + geom_line(mapping = aes(x=date,y=value), 
                              color = "000066") +
  labs(title = "Taxes on corporate income", 
       subtitle = str_glue("From {min(indicator$date)} through {max(indicator$date)}"),
       x="Quarterly", y="Billions of Dollars",
       caption = "Source: FRED Federal Reserve _ Illustration by @JoeLongSanDiego")+
   
    theme_economist()

indicator%>%
    hchart( type = "column",hcaes(x = date, y = value)) %>% hc_colors("steelblue") %>%
    hc_subtitle(text=str_glue("from {min(indicator$date)} through {max(indicator$date)}"), 
                     align = "center") %>%
     hc_title(text = "Taxes on corporate income",
             style = list(fontWeight = "bold", fontSize = "20px"), align = "center")  %>%
   hc_credits(enabled = TRUE,text = "Source: FRED Federal Reserve  _ Illustration by @JoeLongSanDiego") %>%
   hc_yAxis(title = list(text = "Billions of Dollars")) %>%
   hc_add_theme(hc_theme_economist())

Federal government current tax receipts:

Taxes on production and imports: Customs duties (B235RC1Q027SBEA)

indicator <-fredr_series_observations(series_id = "B235RC1Q027SBEA",
        observation_start = as.Date("2016-01-01")) 

# plotting data
indicator %>% ggplot() + geom_line(mapping = aes(x=date,y=value), 
                              color = "000066") +
  labs(title = "Taxes on production and imports: Customs duties", 
       subtitle = str_glue("From {min(indicator$date)} through {max(indicator$date)}"),
       x="Quarterly", y="Billions of Dollars",
       caption = "Source: FRED Federal Reserve _ Illustration by @JoeLongSanDiego")+
   
    theme_economist()

indicator%>%
    hchart( type = "column",hcaes(x = date, y = value)) %>% hc_colors("steelblue") %>%
    hc_subtitle(text=str_glue("from {min(indicator$date)} through {max(indicator$date)}"), 
                     align = "center") %>%
     hc_title(text = "Taxes on production and imports: Customs duties",
             style = list(fontWeight = "bold", fontSize = "20px"), align = "center")  %>%
   hc_credits(enabled = TRUE,text = "Source: FRED Federal Reserve  _ Illustration by @JoeLongSanDiego") %>%
   hc_yAxis(title = list(text = "Billions of Dollars")) %>%
   hc_add_theme(hc_theme_economist())

Federal government current tax receipts:

Personal current taxes (A074RC1Q027SBEA)

indicator <-fredr_series_observations(series_id = "A074RC1Q027SBEA",
        observation_start = as.Date("2016-01-01")) 

# plotting data
indicator %>% ggplot() + geom_line(mapping = aes(x=date,y=value), 
                              color = "000066") +
  labs(title = "Personal current taxes", 
       subtitle = str_glue("From {min(indicator$date)} through {max(indicator$date)}"),
       x="Quarterly", y="Billions of Dollars",
       caption = "Source: FRED Federal Reserve _ Illustration by @JoeLongSanDiego")+
   
    theme_economist()

indicator%>%
    hchart( type = "column",hcaes(x = date, y = value)) %>% hc_colors("steelblue") %>%
    hc_subtitle(text=str_glue("from {min(indicator$date)} through {max(indicator$date)}"), 
                     align = "center") %>%
     hc_title(text = "Personal current taxes",
             style = list(fontWeight = "bold", fontSize = "20px"), align = "center")  %>%
   hc_credits(enabled = TRUE,text = "Source: FRED Federal Reserve  _ Illustration by @JoeLongSanDiego") %>%
   hc_yAxis(title = list(text = "Billions of Dollars")) %>%
   hc_add_theme(hc_theme_economist())

Federal government current tax receipts:

Taxes on production and imports: Excise taxes (B234RC1Q027SBEA)

indicator <-fredr_series_observations(series_id = "B234RC1Q027SBEA",
        observation_start = as.Date("2016-01-01")) 

# plotting data
indicator %>% ggplot() + geom_line(mapping = aes(x=date,y=value), 
                              color = "000066") +
  labs(title = "Taxes on production and imports: Excise taxes", 
       subtitle = str_glue("From {min(indicator$date)} through {max(indicator$date)}"),
       x="Quarterly", y="Billions of Dollars",
       caption = "Source: FRED Federal Reserve _ Illustration by @JoeLongSanDiego")+
   
    theme_economist()

indicator%>%
    hchart( type = "column",hcaes(x = date, y = value)) %>% hc_colors("steelblue") %>%
    hc_subtitle(text=str_glue("from {min(indicator$date)} through {max(indicator$date)}"), 
                     align = "center") %>%
     hc_title(text = "Taxes on production and imports: Excise taxes",
             style = list(fontWeight = "bold", fontSize = "20px"), align = "center")  %>%
   hc_credits(enabled = TRUE,text = "Source: FRED Federal Reserve  _ Illustration by @JoeLongSanDiego") %>%
   hc_yAxis(title = list(text = "Billions of Dollars")) %>%
   hc_add_theme(hc_theme_economist())

Taxes on production and imports (W007RC1Q027SBEA)

indicator <-fredr_series_observations(series_id = "W007RC1Q027SBEA",
        observation_start = as.Date("2016-01-01")) 

# plotting data
indicator %>% ggplot() + geom_line(mapping = aes(x=date,y=value), 
                              color = "000066") +
  labs(title = "Taxes on production and imports", 
       subtitle = str_glue("From {min(indicator$date)} through {max(indicator$date)}"),
       x="Quarterly", y="Billions of Dollars",
       caption = "Source: FRED Federal Reserve _ Illustration by @JoeLongSanDiego")+
   
    theme_economist()

indicator%>%
    hchart( type = "column",hcaes(x = date, y = value)) %>% hc_colors("steelblue") %>%
    hc_subtitle(text=str_glue("from {min(indicator$date)} through {max(indicator$date)}"), 
                     align = "center") %>%
     hc_title(text = "Taxes on production and imports",
             style = list(fontWeight = "bold", fontSize = "20px"), align = "center")  %>%
   hc_credits(enabled = TRUE,text = "Source: FRED Federal Reserve  _ Illustration by @JoeLongSanDiego") %>%
   hc_yAxis(title = list(text = "Billions of Dollars")) %>%
   hc_add_theme(hc_theme_economist())

### Contributions for government social insurance: From persons (LA0000121Q027SBEA)

indicator <-fredr_series_observations(series_id = "LA0000121Q027SBEA",
        observation_start = as.Date("2016-01-01")) 

# plotting data
indicator %>% ggplot() + geom_line(mapping = aes(x=date,y=value), 
                              color = "000066") +
  labs(title = "Contributions for government social insurance: From persons", 
       subtitle = str_glue("From {min(indicator$date)} through {max(indicator$date)}"),
       x="Quarterly", y="Billions of Dollars",
       caption = "Source: FRED Federal Reserve _ Illustration by @JoeLongSanDiego")+
   
    theme_economist()

indicator%>%
    hchart( type = "column",hcaes(x = date, y = value)) %>% hc_colors("steelblue") %>%
    hc_subtitle(text=str_glue("from {min(indicator$date)} through {max(indicator$date)}"), 
                     align = "center") %>%
     hc_title(text = "Contributions for government social insurance: From persons",
             style = list(fontWeight = "bold", fontSize = "20px"), align = "center")  %>%
   hc_credits(enabled = TRUE,text = "Source: FRED Federal Reserve  _ Illustration by @JoeLongSanDiego") %>%
   hc_yAxis(title = list(text = "Billions of Dollars")) %>%
   hc_add_theme(hc_theme_economist())

### Income receipts on assets (W009RC1Q027SBEA)

indicator <-fredr_series_observations(series_id = "W009RC1Q027SBEA",
        observation_start = as.Date("2016-01-01")) 

# plotting data
indicator %>% ggplot() + geom_line(mapping = aes(x=date,y=value), 
                              color = "000066") +
  labs(title = "Income receipts on assets", 
       subtitle = str_glue("From {min(indicator$date)} through {max(indicator$date)}"),
       x="Quarterly", y="Billions of Dollars",
       caption = "Source: FRED Federal Reserve _ Illustration by @JoeLongSanDiego")+
   
    theme_economist()

indicator%>%
    hchart( type = "column",hcaes(x = date, y = value)) %>% hc_colors("steelblue") %>%
    hc_subtitle(text=str_glue("from {min(indicator$date)} through {max(indicator$date)}"), 
                     align = "center") %>%
     hc_title(text = "Income receipts on assets",
             style = list(fontWeight = "bold", fontSize = "20px"), align = "center")  %>%
   hc_credits(enabled = TRUE,text = "Source: FRED Federal Reserve  _ Illustration by @JoeLongSanDiego") %>%
   hc_yAxis(title = list(text = "Billions of Dollars")) %>%
   hc_add_theme(hc_theme_economist())